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Old 02-06-2012, 06:39 PM   #1
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Default French Presidential Elections 2012

2.5 months to go before the first round ...


As intro, I'd like to quote one of the greatest French historians and demographer, Emmanuel Todd:


"If common Euro tariffs are not possible, then the best solution would be to get out of the Euro. And hence, the tragedy is that among the 'big' candidates, Marine Le Pen would be the only one to propose a viable economic programme."


There Will Be Blood !


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Old 02-06-2012, 07:09 PM   #2
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Default Re: French Presidential Elections 2012

I doubt any candidate will exit the euro, except the extreme right.

Socialists will win unfortunately.
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Old 02-06-2012, 08:12 PM   #3
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Default Re: French Presidential Elections 2012

if the socialist party wins, the euro is doomed. hollande is not gonna put up with the kind of steps merkel is trying to implement. actually i doubt he'd even come close to implementing any austerity rules for his own country (which desperately needs them).

hollande will piss off merkel, merkel will retaliate by cutting agricultural subsidies. hollande will form a coalition to block germanic (ger+ned+fin+aus+slo+baltics) economic policies, the euro will cease to exist.

so yeah, in a nutshell, bring on hollande!
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Old 02-06-2012, 08:20 PM   #4
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Default Re: French Presidential Elections 2012

Come up with a new name Rainer, more than half of those countries are not Germanic.

I hope Hollande wins for a variety of reasons, but I'm skeptic. I don't think he's charismatic enough.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philosophicalarf View Post
Armstrong says in-competition testing will never catch anyone, only out-of-competition testing and the blood passport can.

Tennis has no blood passport system, and does basically no out of competition testing.

The methods and drugs used by Armstrong in 1999 would work in tennis right now, with zero chance of being caught (not slightly surprising to anyone familiar with the topic, btw).
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Old 02-06-2012, 08:26 PM   #5
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Default Re: French Presidential Elections 2012

okay, call it "nordic" then. you get my point.
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Old 02-06-2012, 08:50 PM   #6
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Default Re: French Presidential Elections 2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rrrainer View Post
okay, call it "nordic" then. you get my point.
Why not call it "coalition of governments from responsible countries that know the meaning of the word accountability"?

I'm allowed to say that you see.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philosophicalarf View Post
Armstrong says in-competition testing will never catch anyone, only out-of-competition testing and the blood passport can.

Tennis has no blood passport system, and does basically no out of competition testing.

The methods and drugs used by Armstrong in 1999 would work in tennis right now, with zero chance of being caught (not slightly surprising to anyone familiar with the topic, btw).
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Old 02-06-2012, 09:06 PM   #7
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Default Re: French Presidential Elections 2012

yeah to some extent you're better off than me, wording-wise.

but anyways, like i said, i don't believe the southern european countries' lack of accountability, if you will, is what got them into the current mess. artificially low interest rates did. with the economic history of fringe countries like greece or portugal in mind, why did ANYONE believe they would all of a sudden come to their "northern european" senses? they've never acted responsibly, from a german or dutch point of view. from their own point of view, they always have - as the possibility of a self-inflicted develuation had been obvious the back-up plan. it's been a political move since ages, widely respected even among economists.

well, within the emu, that major remedy is gone for good. so i guess in the end the demise of that terrible straitjacket has virtually no downside, for no country, no part of the continent, apart from maybe a short-term liquidity crisis.
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Old 02-06-2012, 09:16 PM   #8
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Default Re: French Presidential Elections 2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rrrainer View Post
yeah to some extent you're better off than me, wording-wise.

but anyways, like i said, i don't believe the southern european countries' lack of accountability, if you will, is what got them into the current mess. artificially low interest rates did. with the economic history of fringe countries like greece or portugal in mind, why did ANYONE believe they would all of a sudden come to their "northern european" senses? they've never acted responsible, from a german or dutch point of view. from their own point of view, they always have - as the possibility of a self-inflicted develuation had been obvious the back-up plan. it's been a political move since ages, widely respected even among economists.

well, within the emu, that major remedy is gone for good. so i guess in the end the demise of that terrible straitjacket has virtually no downside, for no country, no part of the continent, apart from maybe a short-term liquidity crisis.
The fact that southern european countries have been switching on the print-a-thon every time they've found themselves unable to pay their debts does not mean it is the best way to go. The northern european way is better. Analysis, hindsight, austerity, competitiveness. The first three are structural, and the last one is dependent on them.

The emu was, from the get go, a challenge to the southern economies: either you wake the fuck up, or you're not going to be able to keep up. I fear they might have realised too late. Some might say things couldn't have gone any other way, that cultural values are too deeply ingrained and that that's the way it has to be. But look at countries like Slovakia, or Estonia. They have managed to hold their own precisely by implementing strict austerity policies and being smart in their decision making.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philosophicalarf View Post
Armstrong says in-competition testing will never catch anyone, only out-of-competition testing and the blood passport can.

Tennis has no blood passport system, and does basically no out of competition testing.

The methods and drugs used by Armstrong in 1999 would work in tennis right now, with zero chance of being caught (not slightly surprising to anyone familiar with the topic, btw).
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Old 02-06-2012, 09:49 PM   #9
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Default Re: French Presidential Elections 2012

weren't countries like spain or portugal catching up big time in the 90s - without the euro? i don't know how greece or italy were doing but i guess the picture wasn't any different. the south used to come to terms with their structural currency woes over centuries, why not keep it that way?
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Old 02-06-2012, 10:24 PM   #10
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Default Re: French Presidential Elections 2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rrrainer View Post
weren't countries like spain or portugal catching up big time in the 90s - without the euro? i don't know how greece or italy were doing but i guess the picture wasn't any different. the south used to come to terms with their structural currency woes over centuries, why not keep it that way?
Spain had 24% unemployment in 1995 (even higher than now!). There might have been some comparative progress, but the gap was always there. And the gap is conspicuous and significant, too significant to be ignored or to accept it as the satisfying status quo.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philosophicalarf View Post
Armstrong says in-competition testing will never catch anyone, only out-of-competition testing and the blood passport can.

Tennis has no blood passport system, and does basically no out of competition testing.

The methods and drugs used by Armstrong in 1999 would work in tennis right now, with zero chance of being caught (not slightly surprising to anyone familiar with the topic, btw).
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Old 02-06-2012, 10:38 PM   #11
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Default Re: French Presidential Elections 2012

still, you're not gonna get that kind of economic revolution by force. it's just not going to happen, that much is clear as of now.

and back on topic, france, under socialist rule, will definitely veto any pro-austerity legislation that comes out of brussels and directly impacts sovereign policy-making. for some reason sarkozy (i mean the real sarkozy) is laying low for the time being, but chances are holland will not go down without a hell of a fight. anyone can rile up the greeks, the italians and the spanish in the current political climate, basically merkel has been the odd man out since 08.

and then what? there's just no way the euro can survive such a perfect storm. neither merkel and her silent supporters up north nor the southern fringe is gonna step back.
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Old 02-06-2012, 11:32 PM   #12
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Default Re: French Presidential Elections 2012

Weakest field of all time. New low for French politics. White vote is the right vote.
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Old 02-07-2012, 03:03 AM   #13
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Default Re: French Presidential Elections 2012

It seems like a weak field because Sarkozy has been acting like a socialist. So now the socialists don't know how to oppose him. They probably agreed with most of the decisions he made.
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Old 02-07-2012, 07:51 AM   #14
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Default Re: French Presidential Elections 2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rrrainer View Post
still, you're not gonna get that kind of economic revolution by force. it's just not going to happen, that much is clear as of now.
Certainly. That's why I want the Euro and the EU as it is to end.

Quote:
and back on topic, france, under socialist rule, will definitely veto any pro-austerity legislation that comes out of brussels and directly impacts sovereign policy-making. for some reason sarkozy (i mean the real sarkozy) is laying low for the time being, but chances are holland will not go down without a hell of a fight. anyone can rile up the greeks, the italians and the spanish in the current political climate, basically merkel has been the odd man out since 08.
I'm not so sure Hollande will put up such a fight... something tells me he'll cooperate.

and then what? there's just no way the euro can survive such a perfect storm. neither merkel and her silent supporters up north nor the southern fringe is gonna step back.[/quote]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimnik View Post
It seems like a weak field because Sarkozy has been acting like a socialist. So now the socialists don't know how to oppose him. They probably agreed with most of the decisions he made.
This is true. And I suspect it wasn't an unconscious move by Sarkozy.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philosophicalarf View Post
Armstrong says in-competition testing will never catch anyone, only out-of-competition testing and the blood passport can.

Tennis has no blood passport system, and does basically no out of competition testing.

The methods and drugs used by Armstrong in 1999 would work in tennis right now, with zero chance of being caught (not slightly surprising to anyone familiar with the topic, btw).
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Old 02-07-2012, 12:05 PM   #15
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Default Re: French Presidential Elections 2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by Har-Tru View Post
Certainly. That's why I want the Euro and the EU as it is to end.
you want the european union to end as well?

to me, that's probably the best cooperation agreement europe has come up with ever. the euro sux and is gonna keep dividing nations, but the union used to work properly over the last decades. you might wanna mix it up a bit, swoop in and reform a few programs or policies, but still, i'm very much in favor of the union.
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