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View Poll Results: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the top?

Yes, and he will cement his reputation as the best player ever 197 55.18%
No, he will forever be two weeks short of the record 160 44.82%
Voters: 357. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 06-14-2010, 03:23 PM   #91
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Default Re: Will Federer become number 1 again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Topspin Forehand View Post
Nope. Fed will not regain number 1. Staying in the top 5 is still possible though.
You are realistic.
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Old 06-14-2010, 03:27 PM   #92
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Default Re: Will Federer become number 1 again?

federer won't be no.1 again, he will stay top 4 for a few years though.
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Old 06-14-2010, 03:34 PM   #93
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Default Re: Will Federer become number 1 again?

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Originally Posted by born_on_clay View Post
Fed will be back on top this time next year
this
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Old 06-14-2010, 11:00 PM   #94
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Default Re: Will Federer become number 1 again?



Federer's chase for the No. 1 record
June 14, 2010

By Kamakshi Tandon

When Roger Federer fell to Robin Soderling in the French Open, he didn't just lose a quarterfinal match -- he also lost his No. 1 ranking. By not reaching the semifinals, Federer gave Rafael Nadal the chance to overtake him by winning the tournament. And Nadal promptly did so, winning his fifth French Open crown to move back to No. 1 and nudge Federer down to No. 2.

During the tournament, neither of them seemed to care much who ended up in the top spot.

"As far as the No. 1 ranking is concerned, it's in his hands now," Federer said after his loss, referring to Nadal. "Things change really quickly. I won't be following the rest of the tournament and hoping that Nadal doesn't win just so that I stay on top."

After winning the title, Nadal said, "When I was crying after the match, the last thing I was thinking was of the No. 1."

But the switch was important in one respect -- it left Federer just shy of breaking the record for total weeks spent at No. 1, a pretty significant statistic in tennis. The Swiss does hold the record for the longest unbroken streak at No. 1, having spent 237 straight weeks at the top. But cumulatively, his count is 285 total weeks, one week behind Pete Sampras' mark of 286 total weeks.

At first glance, the setback doesn't seem particularly devastating -- Federer trails Nadal by only 220 points in this week's rankings, and Federer traditionally outperforms the Spaniard on grass and U.S. hard courts. So he should get a chance to move back up fairly soon, right?

In fact, Federer's chances of reclaiming No. 1 are slim until at least after the U.S. Open in September, and perhaps beyond.

Ranking points expire after one year, so players have to constantly match last season's performance at any given tournament to maintain their total. If they do better, their total goes up; if they do worse, it goes down.

Since Federer won the French Open last year and earned the maximum 2,000 points available, for example, he had no way of gaining ground this year -- the best-case scenario for the Swiss was to defend his title and collect another 2,000 points to replace the 2,000 that would drop off at the end of the tournament. As it happens, he reached only the quarterfinals, collecting 360 points (a net loss of 1,640 points). Nadal, who reached only the fourth round last year but won the whole thing this time around, had 180 points drop off and added 2,000 (a net gain of 1,820 points).

The same scenario is set to play out for the rest of the summer. Federer will be defending titles, finals and semifinals all the way, while Nadal has the opportunity to add a lot of points -- injuries forced him to miss Wimbledon last year and he had only so-so results during the North American hard-court season. All in all, Federer is looking to defend 3,120 points more than Nadal through the U.S. Open -- more than the equivalent of a Grand Slam plus a Masters title.

So the real gap between the two is far larger than the 310 points on this week's ranking list. Federer cannot retake No. 1 at Wimbledon under any circumstances, and should Nadal reach the semifinals there, Federer would have to win Toronto, Cincinnati and the U.S. Open to have any chance at all.

There's a possibility Federer could even drop to No. 3, with Novak Djokovic able to overtake him at Wimbledon if he both outlasts the Swiss and reaches at least the semifinals.

If Federer can avoid that scenario and stay within striking distance of No. 1, he will have chances to move back up in the fall, when he is defending fewer points than Nadal. At the same time, however, Nadal is also likely to play more tournaments, taking part in October's Asian swing while Federer may opt to skip Shanghai and take a break before the indoor events in Europe.

Either way, the bottom line is that Federer will have to do something special to earn back the No. 1 ranking. After he won the Australian Open, he was in position to simply coast to the 286-week record by reaching a semifinal here and there.

As it turns out, winning just two more matches at Indian Wells and Miami would have done it (he squandered match points in both his losses there), or defeating Nadal in the final of Madrid, or defeating Soderling in the French Open quarterfinals.

But week after week, he fell just short. And at the last minute, it slipped away.

So for the moment, it's a case of close-but-not-quite for Federer and the No. 1 record. He needs just a week or two more at the top, but getting back there could take a lot longer than that.

Kamakshi Tandon is a freelance tennis writer for ESPN.com. Robert Waltz contributed to this story.
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Old 06-15-2010, 10:06 AM   #95
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Default Re: Will Federer become number 1 again?

^^ Pretty much sums it all up.

Quote:
So the real gap between the two is far larger than the 310 points on this week's ranking list. Federer cannot retake No. 1 at Wimbledon under any circumstances, and should Nadal reach the semifinals there, Federer would have to win Toronto, Cincinnati and the U.S. Open to have any chance at all.
Hence my earlier post (in a different thread), that with reaching the semis at Wimbledon, Nadal will have virtually sealed the YE#1 spot.
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Old 06-15-2010, 11:33 AM   #96
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Default Re: Will Federer become number 1 again?

Wimbledon 2010 Preview - Roger Federer and ranking implications


Roger Federer is ranked 2nd on tour and he appears to have a future there.

Grand Slams often lead to massive shifts in rankings as the ranking points associated with match-wins are not found to the same degree in any other tournaments. Here are the ranking points offered for singles results to the men at Wimbledon:

Winner: 2000 points
Finalist: 1200 points
Semifinalist: 720 points
Quarterfinalist: 360 points
R16: 180 points
R32: 90 points
R64: 45 points
R128: 10 points

Last year's quarterfinalists were as follows:

Lleyton Hewitt
Juan Carlos Ferrero
Novak Djokovic
Ivo Karlovic

Each of these players earned 360 ranking points and they need to make at least the quarters again this year to defend those points. Karlovic and Ferrero will be in tough to do that.

The Semifinalists from 2009:

Andy Murray
Tommy Haas

They each earned 720 points from last year and Haas is in great danger of failing to defend those points and he may drop down to below 70th or so after Wimbledon 2010.

Finalist: Andy Roddick (1200 ranking points)

Champion: Roger Federer (2000 ranking points)

Now here are the current tour rankings for the top 10 complete with their current ranking points and betting odds to win outright (June 14th 2010):

1 Rafael Nadal 8,745 (+264 Bwin.com)
2 Roger Federer 8,525 (+150 Boylesports - MAXIMUMBONUS promo code)
3 Novak Djokovic 6,545 (+2200 Bwin.com)
4 Andy Murray 5,155 (+900 Bodog - MAXIMUMBONUS promo code)
5 Nikolay Davydenko 4,785 (+15000 Victor Chandler)
6 Robin Soderling 4,755 (+1600 SportingBet - MAXIMUMBONUS promo code)
7 Andy Roddick 4,510 (+1400 totesport)
8 JM Del Potro 4,395 (injured)
9 Fernando Verdasco 3,645 (+10000 Betfred)
10 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 3,185 (+8000 Stan James)

Of note world number 1 Rafael Nadal did not contest Wimbledon in 2009 due to injury. That means he has 0 points to defend this year and that means that any ranking points he earns this year will simply be added to his already existing total.

Roger Federer, on the other hand, has 8,525 ranking points and he WON Wimbledon outright last year. Of his current ranking points 2000 are at risk. With a hypothetical though unrealistic first round loss he won only defend 10 of those ranking points while 1,990 would fall off for a new total of 6,535.

Roger Federer cannot become world number 1 with another Wimbledon title - all he can do is remain the world number 2. Even if he wins outright at the All England Club his ranking points total will not go up - he'll just retain the 2000 points he earned from last year.

Furthermore, Nadal cannot be caught at world number 1 by any other player. Should world number 3 Novak Djokovic unexpectedly win the title he would take down 2000 ranking points for an improvement of 1640 points from last year's QF appearance. That would still not be enough to catch Nadal in the rankings even if Rafa went out in the first round.

Since Nadal was injured at this time last year he does not have many points to protect until the 2010 US Open. Nadal only contested the Cincinnati Masters and the Canadian Masters last year between Wimbledon and Flushing Meadows and he only earned 540 points from those two Masters events (at the US Open he earned 720 points). There are certainly scenarios where Federer, Djokovic, or Murray or others can overtake Nadal before the US Open, but they seem unlikely at this point and Rafa looks good, in my opinion, to retain the world number 1 ranking until at least Flushing Meadows.

Federer's world number 2 is within reach of some players if Federer suffers an early or middle round defeat. Suppose Federer suffered another upset and went out of Wimbledon in the quarters. He would only protect 360 points of 2000 for a drop of 1640 which would bring him down to 6885.

Djokovic could surpass that total with a semifinal appearance although Murray could not, even if the Scot won the title. If Federer went out much earlier than he could be caught by others but an early round loss is very unlikely for the 6 time champion.

Tennis rankings aren't terribly complicated but it's still easy to make a mistake with so many players, so many ranking points, and so many events. I'm confident in what I've said here but I don't have a computer doing this for me - it's just me and my desktop calculator. If there is an error, accept my apologies.

However I believe the following to be true:

1. There is a 100% chance that Nadal will be number 1 after Wimbledon.
2. Roger Federer is very likely to be the world number 2.
3. Unless Nadal withdraws from Wimbledon unexpectedly he will have a bigger lead over Federer heading into the hard court season where Rafa has more room to grow because he was less productive at this time last year than Fed.

It all leads me to conclude that Federer will fall just short of beating Pete Sampras' record of most weeks at world number 1. Federer is chasing Nadal with less room for growth and the Swiss Maestro is only moving further away from his tennis prime.

Federer is the type of player that can win a Slam when everyone is starting to write him off and perhaps there are one or two more Slam titles left but I still don't think he will ever be world number 1 again provided that Nadal's body holds up until Del Potro makes his return to tour and starts blazing everyone off the court like he did at last year's US Open.


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Old 06-30-2010, 03:41 PM   #97
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Default Re: Will Federer become number 1 again?

It'll be very hard, I can no longer say he's the best overall player on tour.
He had a very strong AO but since that and the lung infection he never got back to that early year form.
Djokovic will take over the #2 spot, finally passing Fed in terms of skill. Had to happen eventually.
Fed missed some really easy forhands today, some loose backhands and hardly any great shots which used to come so easily. Not a high level by any means today and all tournament.
I'm sure he's taking this hard and will have some kind of response so I can't count him out completely.
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Old 06-30-2010, 03:51 PM   #98
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Default Re: Will Federer become number 1 again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Helevorn View Post
he won't.

he neither has interest in returning back n.1

moreover, -2000 points in wimbledon against nadal's 0. he'll never return n.1.. in next year's clay season nadal will defend all, and federer will possibly lose even badly than this year
How ignorant to say "HE HAS NO INTEREST IN RETURNING" to number 1. What a pathetic statement. He is still playing tennis, thus he obviously still enjoys the challenge. He's had a terrible 6 months. Obviously as one ages, the titles are going to be harder to come by. I think with so little to defend this year that he has a sure shot at being #1 this time next year... if he gets off to a good start and starts winning smaller tournaments.
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Old 06-30-2010, 03:51 PM   #99
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Default Re: Will Federer become number 1 again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by swisht4u View Post
It'll be very hard, I can no longer say he's the best overall player on tour.
He had a very strong AO but since that and the lung infection he never got back to that early year form.
Djokovic will take over the #2 spot, finally passing Fed in terms of skill. Had to happen eventually.
Fed missed some really easy forhands today, some loose backhands and hardly any great shots which used to come so easily. Not a high level by any means today and all tournament.
I'm sure he's taking this hard and will have some kind of response so I can't count him out completely.
Good quote! I think with children and married life, priorities are obviously different. And good for him.
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Old 06-30-2010, 04:01 PM   #100
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Default Re: Will Federer become number 1 again?

No, doesn't look like it, but it's not a total non-chance. His life and priorities have changed, and he is 29 years old. It's hard to keep that spirit, focus and determination on such a high level forever, especially since he's already won almost everything and he has children and a family life now. He's done well to hang on as long as he has. But he still has game left. It depends how much he will go for it and also, if Rafa and Nole can stay healthy long enough to remain where they are.
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Old 06-30-2010, 04:19 PM   #101
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Default Re: Will Federer become number 1 again?

Let dead people vote!!!
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Old 06-30-2010, 05:08 PM   #102
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Default Re: Will Federer become number 1 again?

A more pertinent question would be if he can regain number 2 by the end of the year.
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Old 07-05-2010, 11:02 PM   #103
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Default Will Federer Ever Get the #1 Ranking Back?

I've always had a lot of faith in Federer, even when we as in his slumps. But, now that he's 29, I'm getting more and more anxious about how he can keep up. My hope is that the past month of tennis is no indicator for how he'll play in the future. But I can't be sure...

I can't imagine tennis without Federer in contention...

What does everyone here think about Federer's situation?
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Old 07-05-2010, 11:05 PM   #104
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Default Re: Will Federer Ever Get the #1 Ranking Back?

no
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Old 07-05-2010, 11:06 PM   #105
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Default Re: Will Federer Ever Get the #1 Ranking Back?

He'll win another slam sometime. Don't see him returning to #1 though unfortunately. 285 weeks is pretty damn good though
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