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In-depth analysis of matchups/matchup issues between ATP players

51K views 318 replies 89 participants last post by  Wawrinkitis 
#1 · (Edited)
I came accross a very unfortunate MTF thread questioning if matchups existed in tennis :facepalm: That however gave me the idea of discussing the worst matchup issues between top 10/20 players.

I'm not referring to awkward matchups here (eg. Berdych to Federer), more to situations where a certain players finds another (almost) impossible to overcome, extreme matchup issues and the reason why they exist. Here are some - five: (I left Federer vs Nadal out on purpose as that particular matchup has been discussed to death, was more looking to talk about less discussed matchups)

Nadal vs Berdych

Nadal leads 12-3, but has won the last 11 matches, dropping only 2 sets in the process. He won 20 consecutive sets at one point. Berdych played a brillaint match earlier this year in Australia, still didn't take more than a set.

Reasons for this:

-Berdych's game is based on overpowering/hitting through his opponents from the baseline, his serve isn't a huge weapon nor is his net game. Hitting through Nadal on the current uber slow conditions is almost impossible. Nadal just keeps retrieving one more ball until Berdych inevitably makes the error.

-Berdych can't do anything on the Nadal serve. He's one of the best returners on tour, does a lot of damage even on the Federer serve. But against Nadal? Nothing. Even on second serves he can rarely get the initiative off the return.

-Nadal knows how to play against Berdych. He's usually more aggressive vs Tomas than most other matches, can take his time away better than anyone else and also expose Tomas's movement issues (as Tomas himself admitted). He also has no trouble with Berdych's hitting patterns, he actually reads them like an open book and they play into his strengths.

Federer vs Ferrer

13-0 Federer, 3 sets won by Ferrer. Most sets pretty routine for Federer.

Reasons:

-Ferrer thrives on a consistent rythm from the baseline, Federer doesn't give him that at all; he has the variety to completely mess up Ferrer's game and timing and make him leave plenty of short balls

-Federer's ability to put away short balls and volleys. Among the same lines as the first point; Ferrer can be a tricky opponent when he's allowed to rally with his opponent and turn the match into an endurance/griding contest, Federer simply never allows that to happen. Add to that the fact that Ferrer can't return the Federer serve if his life depended on it and you have the most one sided head-to-head in top level tennis, only likely to become even more one sided.

Federer vs Soderling

16-1 Federer, 5 sets won by Soderling overall. Soderling did get him at RG once with a stunning performance, but the matchup issues remain. Reasons:

-Federer can take Soderling's time away/rush him and force him to be constantly on the defensive. This is the main issue really; Soderling loves to unleash his huge strokes and against Federer that is harder than against anyone else. Federer can wrestle the initiative and make him defend more than anyone else on tour and expose his movement issues. Soderling needs to serve huge and return great to have a chance against Federer on any given day, or else he will simply not allowed to have the initiative on most points, therefore being a sitting duck.

Del Potro vs Nishikori

4-0 Del Potro, 10-0 in sets, most of them blowouts. Complete ownage.

Reasons:

-Del Potro's power/foreand. Kei likes (and manages) to dictate from the baseline even against huge hitters like Tsonga and Berdych, but he can't deal with Delpo's power and all. Especially JMDP's forehand that constantly pushes him far behind the baseline. Despite his quickness around the court, Kei lacks world class defensive skills and really struggles when he's forced to play defense, which he invariably is against Delpo. His lack of a serve allows JMDP to have the initiative even on his serve games and break him time and again (20 breaks in 10 sets). Will be tough for Kei to even win a set in this matchup in the future if he can't come up with a different strategy, rallying with Del Potro is a losing battle as the Argentine easily overpowers him.

Djokovic vs Cilic

7-0 Djokovic, one set for Cilic with 9-7 in the tiebreak. All very straightforward wins for Novak.

Reasons:

-Cilic's serve is horrible for a guy his size and a liability in general (not that strong 1st serve, poor %), Djokovic is the best returner on tour... you do the Math.

-Nole can easily frustrate Marin with his defense, making him go for too much and leak errors. Nole can even overpower him at times as well. There's basically no safe place to go for Marin in this matchup.


I know there are more examples (maybe more glarring) and also maybe more reasons for these examples, these were just the first that came to mind. Do feel free to argue these five and the reasons and to indicate others :p

Other matchups discussed - some of them not complete mismatches but still interesting discussions - , with links:

Ferrer vs Almagro

Andreev vs Kohlschreiber

Davydenko vs Gonzalez

Davydenko vs Blake

Del Potro vs Soderling

Gasquet vs Simon

Simon vs Federer

Ferrer vs Gasquet - + most of the posts from #62 to #70

Murray vs Simon

Murray vs Federer

Davydenko vs Berdych

Nadal vs Dolgopolov

Del Potro vs Haas

Haas vs Nadal

Simon vs Tipsarevic - also post #139

Haas vs Davydenko - also post #146

Berdych vs Del Potro

Gasquet vs Nadal

Monfils vs Kohlschreiber

Nalbandian vs Soderling

Soderling vs Tsonga

Ferrer vs Del Potro

Nalbandian vs Gasquet

Nadal vs Wawrinka

del Potro vs big hitters

Worst matchups for Djokovic, Del Potro, Tsonga, Simon (including best matchups) and Murray - most posts from #76 to #117
 
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#66 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Great posts guys.

I agree with Sophitia part on the complex/mental side, an aspect quite fascinating to me.

Gasquet vs Ferrer, Almagro vs Ferrer or Federer vs Nadal are some examples of a psychological advantage pre-match : you know that, in a way or another, Ferrer and Nadal are going to win no matter the context (I'm speaking of "important" tournaments).

last Gasquet vs Ferrer match : US Open. Ferrer struggling, Gasquet had his chances, missed some set points in set 2 I believe, but you know that he would lose.

last Almagro vs Ferrer match : in Bastad Almagro was injured (62 62 Ferrer), but in Madrid Almagro was the better player. Still, he lost 6/7 6/3 6/7. Don't remember if he missed some match points.

last Nadal vs Fed "real" clash : Australian Open. Fed up a set, then lost the 3rd set tiebreaker. Basically match over.
 
#67 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Great posts guys.

I agree with Sophitia part on the complex/mental side, an aspect quite fascinating to me.

Gasquet vs Ferrer, Almagro vs Ferrer or Federer vs Nadal are some examples of a psychological advantage pre-match : you know that, in a way or another, Ferrer and Nadal are going to win no matter the context (I'm speaking of "important" tournaments).

last Gasquet vs Ferrer match : US Open. Ferrer struggling, Gasquet had his chances, missed some set points in set 2 I believe, but you know that he would lose.

last Almagro vs Ferrer match : in Bastad Almagro was injured (62 62 Ferrer), but in Madrid Almagro was the better player. Still, he lost 6/7 6/3 6/7. Don't remember if he missed some match points.

last Nadal vs Fed "real" clash : Australian Open. Fed up a set, then lost the 3rd set tiebreaker. Basically match over.
In those three matchups, maybe bar Ferrer vs Almagro, the 'mental issues' appeared because of matchup issues. Federer was initially beaten by Nadal because of how his BH couldn't deal with Nadal's wicked topspin on the FH; Gasquet has nothing in his game to trouble Ferrer and loses routinely all the time. After getting beaten up by an opponent they feel powerless against a few times, players are bound to develop a mental complex. They are mostly a result of the bad matchup, mental complexs usually don't exist in isolation.
 
#76 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Good thread.

Who do people think are the worst match ups for Nole (in theory at least - whether or not it translates to results)?
The three players who have beaten him since RG: Federer, Murray, Del Potro. On a lower level, huge servers can also be tough for him ie Isner, Raonic.

His matchup with Federer is very netural imo, and dependant on surface. Murray is the toughest matchup for him naturally imo, as he can nullify Nole's attacking weapons better than anyone, the matches inevitably turn into wars of attrition. Del Potro has only shown glimpses of this bad matchup potential, but I do believe that a fit/injury free Del Potro could be very tough for Novak for sure - he's already the only big hitter to beat Novak since January 2011 and did it twice. He can more than match Novak's baseline rhythm.

Big serves are a bad matchup because Nole likes to take big swings on return. Against the likes of Isner and Raonic, that's very hard to do. He's not wired to return defensively.
 
#82 · (Edited)
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

mostly you need to take time from Del Potro and play angled and deep balls, using his relatively slow movement.

The sliced backhand can be useful but actually Del Po plays better against it than Söderling. It needs to be a part of a varied game rather than just an usual or defensive shot. For instance what helps Fed against Del Po is that one of his favorite schemes : sliced backhand, receiving a cross-court backhand, then turn his backhand to attack with the forehand, works very well against Del Po.

Hence why Davydenko, Fed and Djokovic are bad match-ups for him. I still think Murray is a better match-up for him than the latter ones, contrary to what some think.
 
#88 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Hence why Davydenko, Fed and Djokovic are bad match-ups for him. I still think Murray is a better match-up for him than the latter ones, contrary to what some think.
Agree about the rest of the post, and even most of this paragraph. Nalbandian/Davydenko and Murray sure, Djokovic no way. 6-2 is a bit misleading here since three of the matches came before Delpo broke through and a lot during his comeback. For instance in Cincy and USO, Nole beat a Delpo in clear physical troubles (no BH due to wrist)and Delpo beat Nole in DC last year with Nole injured.

The few matches where both were fit and healthy showed an incredible power struggle from the baseline, it's a pretty neutral matchup with both fit. Djokovic's advantage can be explained, apart from circumstances (3 matches played with Delpo still not a top player, etc...) by the fact he has generally been a better player than Juan over the years.

Murray is a far worse matchup for Delpo, due to his ability to seamlessly absorb and redirect power.

yes except for big hitters, actually the main reason why Del Po wins against him is that he makes less errors and has a better backhand, like Söderling. Like Söderling he's just a better player than Tsonga. Also I disagree that on a good day, Tsonga wil definitely defeat Murray and Djokovic, he needs a very good day and them not to be at their top.

Against big serves first Tsonga returns bad, secondly he can always have an awol service game which is very costly in the end.

Also the passing-shot is very useful against him because he often goes to the net, hence why Murray is even a worse match-up for him than Djokovic.
On a great day Tsonga will most definitely beat Djokovic and Murray no matter how those two are playing, at least off clay. Tsonga with a functioning/non error leaking BH and ROS is arguably the best player in the world. Check his AO semifinal vs Nadal or the last three sets vs Federer at Wimbledon for reference; in the very, very rare days Tsonga isn't leaking BH errors for fun and tanking return games left and right, he's extremely hard to beat. His attacking game (serve, FH, power, net game, etc... combo) is the best in the business along with Federer.

Djokovic and Murray beat him because they are more steady than him and can exploit his weaknesses on most days. On the days those weaknesses aren't there, good luck beating Jo.


Federer is terrible match-up to anyone whose surname isn`t Nadal. Ferrer suits here better - there a few players who relatively easy handle him, but Delpo isn`t one of them in any conditions. JMDP can`t hit throuh him on regular basic reluying only on his power and isn`t that good in defence to cope with tension David creates playing deep in every shot.
Not really. For instance Berdych matches up well vs Federer and has been doing very well against him lately, despite being an inferior player compared to Del Potro.

Ferrer is probably a better example of a bad matchup though, I agree. Federer dominating JMDP has as much to do with a bad matchup as with Federer being clearly the better player overall.

JMDP's problems against Ferrer are the same as against Murray really. Unlike vs most of the tour, he can't win a rally by simply getting one full swing on his FH with a safe shot. Ferrer can handle the pace/weight of shot and get it back with good depth, prolonging the rallies/exposing Juan's movement. He needs to take more risks, hit closer to the lines - he's capable of doing it but it's not his default game at all.

Also, Ferrer is a player who usually does his homework on opponents, must be said. He has clocked on something that Federer did after the USO 2009 final too and avoids as much as possible letting JMDP hitting his FH on the run. It's a shot where Del Potro has no peer on tour and one that gives him tremendous confidence whenever he pulls it off during a match. Both Federer and Ferrer have recently tried as much as possible to not give Juan any chance to unleash it (Federer took it to the extreme in their recent Olympic match).

David extracts everything out of himself, no doubt.

BTW if I had to answer who is worse match-up for Delpo, Murray or Ferrer, I would need to guess. Instinctively I want to say Andy, but maybe that`s not all that simple.
Ferrer definitely. Murray is a better player than Ferrer (so the H2H is more normal) and despite the 5-1 most of their matches were very close.
 
#90 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

There's been a lot of mentions for Murray being bad match-ups for players, but who's a bad match=up for Murray? I'd probs say Nadal, judging from when i've seen them play.
 
#91 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

There's been a lot of mentions for Murray being bad match-ups for players, but who's a bad match=up for Murray? I'd probs say Nadal, judging from when i've seen them play.
Berdych. The effortless stand and dictate power game he plays has Andy on the run often and he doesn't get the same opportunities to move him around like he does other big hitting players- plus Tomas handles his variety better than them.
 
#93 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Berdych. The effortless stand and dictate power game he plays has Andy on the run often and he doesn't get the same opportunities to move him around like he does other big hitting players- plus Tomas handles his variety better than them.
yes also Cilic when he's in a "few errors" day, both Berdych and Cilic have a very good return to attack second serves, and it's useful against Murray, although his second serve has improved.

Another one who has a good H2H against Murray is Baghdatis, and he also attacks Murray's second serve.

Another possibility is to grind out Murray : Ferrer can do it for instance.
 
#94 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

dont be biased, Lenders. How couldnt you post Federer-Delpo? Im a huge fan of him but is almost disgusting the bad match up that Federer is for him.
 
#105 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Lenders, you are deluded to think that Del-Potro has only lost to Djokovic because he was injured. You're sounding as bad as a Nadal fan.

The Djokovic blend of attack and defense will always be too much for a one-dimensional basher, and heck, even Murray (Djokovic-Lite) has wins against Del-Potro.
 
#117 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Lenders, you are deluded to think that Del-Potro has only lost to Djokovic because he was injured. You're sounding as bad as a Nadal fan.

The Djokovic blend of attack and defense will always be too much for a one-dimensional basher, and heck, even Murray (Djokovic-Lite) has wins against Del-Potro.
Murray has a better record against Del Po than Djokovic.
 
#110 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Simon is someone Gasquet can actually push around, hence his dominant H2H.
He shouldn't though. Simon can actually flatten out his shots when he wants to, not to mention his rally FH is far superior to Gasquet's.

This is another reason Ferrer owns Gasquet: while not a weapon, Ferrer's rally FH is solid and he can get good depth on it, while Gasquet's sucks hence Ferrer dominates every FH exchange. That said, with Gasquet miles behind the baseline dropping plenty of short balls, even Ferrer's FH looks like a deadly weapon as he can easily dominate with it.
 
#111 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

If it was mainly due to the rally forehand Gasquet would be losing to 90% of the tour.
 
#112 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

If it was mainly due to the rally forehand Gasquet would be losing to 90% of the tour.
It's not the main reason (the main reasons were already mentioned in previous posts), but getting pwned in FH exchanges only further adds to Gasquet's problems in this matchup.
 
#113 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Two more that seem interesting....

Hewitt/Karlovic. Karlovic leads the H2H despite being basically all-serve, and Hewitt had one of the best return games on the tour, matching up very well with other S&V players.

Federer/Murray. Particularly given Fed usually owns Muzza at Slams.
 
#118 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Time to revive this thread with one more mismatch. I'll look through the entire thread and add links to specific matchup analysis in the OP soon.

Murray vs Simon

Murray vs Murray light? Everything Simon does, Murray does better - he's pretty much a fitter, stronger and more athletic version of Simon. You almost feel that he can routine Simon without really getting out of second gear. This is arguably one of the very worst mismatches in tennis: in a matchup like say Berdych vs Nadal, if Tomas redlines his game and plays his best he can definitely win, if Simon plays his very best against Murray odds are he's still losing in quite straightforward fashion. He doesn't have any weapons to hit through Murray and while he's consistent off the baseline, Murray is even more so.

Two more that seem interesting....

Hewitt/Karlovic. Karlovic leads the H2H despite being basically all-serve, and Hewitt had one of the best return games on the tour, matching up very well with other S&V players.

Federer/Murray. Particularly given Fed usually owns Muzza at Slams.
Karlovic's serve is not your traditional big serve, it's the best there ever was. Some players could get a decentish read on it, Hewitt wasn't one of them, he couldn't cope with the combination of power and angles.

Federer vs Murray is an interesting one. When Federer is really on his game, Murray pretty much has no chance as he doesn't have the tools to take the initiative off Federer. But when Federer is even a bit off ie prone to shank every third backhand, Murray has the ideal skillset to frustrate him ie he can attack his second serves and defend him into oblivion provoking shanks and mishits, etc... Post-2007 Federer was rarely at his best for non-Slams/WTF, which explains the H2H. Even at their respective ages, I'd still expect Federer to win most of their Slam meetings, although his decreased recovery powers might throw a spanner in the works (ie if he plays a five setter before facing Murray his task will be much harder).
 
#119 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Del Shitro vs Ferrer. Better, smarter, more tactical player owns brainless ballbashing and slug-like movement :shrug:
 
#122 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

If Monfils wasn't injured it would be Monfils-Simon. That's the worst match-up ever. Not for Simon. And not for Monfils. But for us who dare watching it. The spectators would have some serious 'match-up issues' after every match they play.
 
#123 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

If Monfils wasn't injured it would be Monfils-Simon. That's the worst match-up ever. Not for Simon. And not for Monfils. But for us who dare watching it. The spectators would have some serious 'match-up issues' after every match they play.
If we were talking about matchups where both player bring each other down making for ugly matches, Monfils vs Simon would definitely be among the top ones in such discussion :lol:
 
#124 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Adding another one because of the Montpellier draw which put these two players in collision course in the QF.

Davydenko vs Berdych

Davydenko leads 9-2, with Berdych's two wins coming on grass (where Davydenko pretty much can't beat anyone) and Dubai 2011 in a really bad period for Davydenko - it was still a close match. I believe the reason for this one is that Tomas give Kolya two things he loves: flat hitting and consistent patterns. Davydenko in his prime probably hit the ball earlier than any other player in history; Berdych's predictable hitting patterns allow Davy to do just that easily and take the initiative in most points, moving Tomas from side to side. Also, Davydenko is like a machine in terms of generating depth with his shots, he leaves very few short balls and Tomas always had problems with guys who can move him around and hit with consistent depth, making it very hard for him to get his best weapons in play. He's usually the one scrambling and under pressure to hit good shots to remain in the rallies despite being the bigger hitter of the two.

Finally, Berdych's serve doesn't have a particularly good disguise and his first serve % is very low, while Davydenko is one of the best returners of the past decade, he usually dismantles Berdych's serve. He can't even seize the initiative on his own serve, that's what makes this such an immensely difficult matchup for Tomas.

With that said, Berdych will probably win at least 50% of the matches they play from now on, considering that he is in the prime of his career and Davydenko only seems to play his best stuff occasionally, but it's a matchup that is on Kolya's hands outside grass of course.
 
#125 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Adding another one because of the Montpellier draw which put these two players in collision course in the QF.

Davydenko vs Berdych

Davydenko leads 9-2, with Berdych's two wins coming on grass (where Davydenko pretty much can't beat anyone) and Dubai 2011 in a really bad period for Davydenko - it was still a close match. I believe the reason for this one is that Tomas give Kolya two things he loves: flat hitting and consistent patterns. Davydenko in his prime probably hit the ball earlier than any other player in history; Berdych's predictable hitting patterns allow Davy to do just that easily and take the initiative in most points, moving Tomas from side to side. Also, Davydenko is like a machine in terms of generating depth with his shots, he leaves very few short balls and Tomas always had problems with guys who can move him around and hit with consistent depth, making it very hard for him to get his best weapons in play. He's usually the one scrambling and under pressure to hit good shots to remain in the rallies despite being the bigger hitter of the two.

Finally, Berdych's serve doesn't have a particularly good disguise and his first serve % is very low, while Davydenko is one of the best returners of the past decade, he usually dismantles Berdych's serve. He can't even seize the initiative on his own serve, that's what makes this such an immensely difficult matchup for Tomas.

With that said, Berdych will probably win at least 50% of the matches they play from now on, considering that he is in the prime of his career and Davydenko only seems to play his best stuff occasionally, but it's a matchup that is on Kolya's hands outside grass of course.
what about canas vs federer? Fed at his peak in 2007 lost 1-3 vs Canas. hes similair to simon?
 
#128 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Nadal - Monaco. I was going to vote for Monfils-Simon, but this is even worse because apart from bad styles mix here we have no faith in one player to beat another. And yep, I know that Monaco once beated Nadal when Rafa retired, but spaniard was barely moving then - irrelevant. Argentinean has absolutely nothing to hurt Nadal, he struggles to win games and almost points.

In Monfils-Simon matches you have at least some drama.
 
#129 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Nadal - Monaco. I was going to vote for Monfils-Simon, but this is even worse because apart from bad styles mix here we have no faith in one player to beat another. And yep, I know that Monaco once beated Nadal when Rafa retired, but spaniard was barely moving then - irrelevant. Argentinean has absolutely nothing to hurt Nadal, he struggles to win games and almost points.

In Monfils-Simon matches you have at least some drama.
Monfils vs Simon is always very tight, it definitely doesn't fit here at all.

I get your point about Nadal vs Monaco, but remember how Monaco did in his last Slam match vs Federer? Got 3 games. Miami semi vs Nole? 95% of his matches against top players? It's not that he has a specific matchup problem with Nadal, he's just generally not a threat to any top player, although yes against Nadal he usually doesn't even try such is his lack of belief/submissiveness.
 
#131 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Monaco vs Nadal is partly match-up but also partly the fact he's so in awe of him he just rolls over like a girl. Nieminen, Ferrer, Simon, Benneteau, even Boredo, are all players with limited weaponry who have given Nadal either defeats or tight contests so I don't see why Monaco couldn't.
 
#134 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Monaco vs Nadal is partly match-up but also partly the fact he's so in awe of him he just rolls over like a girl. Nieminen, Ferrer, Simon, Benneteau, even Boredo, are all players with limited weaponry who have given Nadal either defeats or tight contests so I don't see why Monaco couldn't.
Even Devvarman kept it closer when he played Nadal :lol:

Speaking of Nadal, his matchup with Dolgopolov is a good example here. For starters, Dolgo is far too erratic for perhaps the steadiest baseliner in tennis history who will give no points away. As if that were not enough, Dolgo slices far too much: there's basically no more suicidal tactic in tennis than slicing to Nadal's forehand (even Federer has fully abandoned that tactic), Nadal accelerating those balls with his forehand. Results: 6-4, 6-3, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-2.
 
#135 · (Edited)
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Time to bump this again with one of the biggest mismatches between top 20 players: Del Potro vs Haas

Haas has never even forced a tiebreak in 4 matches. The problem he has is the same as players like Nishikori and Tipsarevic (who never took a set off Delpo either) do, it's that he's not comfortable at all defending and Del Potro loves nothing more than facing offensive baseliners with poor defense. His ability to generate consistent power and depth especially off the forehand from any position on the court pretty much means that anyone without the ability to soak up and redirect that sort of power is a good matchup for him. Del Potro vs Haas exchanges usually follow the same pattern, with Haas trying to hit through Del Potro but the Argentine getting the upperhand in irreversible fashion as long as he gets a full swing on the FH, leading to a short ball or a shank from Haas. Haas also has a lot of problems reading the Del Potro serve, which only increases his problems in this matchup.

Since we're on Haas here, Haas vs Nadal is another obvious case, actually Haas can still give a good match to anyone in the top 8 bar Nadal and Del Potro.

Haas never took a set and it's easy to see why. He can't hit through Nadal at all and Rafa systematically breaks down his BH with his topspin FH. I suppose this matchup could look more competitive if they played on grass when it's still fast though.
 
#137 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Time to bump this again with one of the biggest mismatches between top 20 players: Del Potro vs Haas

Haas has never even forced a tiebreak in 4 matches. The problem he has is the same as players like Nishikori and Tipsarevic (who never took a set off Delpo either) do, it's that he's not comfortable at all defending and Del Potro loves nothing more than facing offensive baseliners with poor defense. His ability to generate consistent power and depth especially off the forehand from any position on the court pretty much means that anyone without the ability to soak up and redirect that sort of power is a good matchup for him. Del Potro vs Haas exchanges usually follow the same pattern, with Haas trying to hit through Del Potro but the Argentine getting the upperhand in irreversible fashion as long as he gets a full swing on the FH. Haas also has a lot of problems reading the Del Potro serve, which only increases his problems in this matchup.

Since we're on Haas here, Haas vs Nadal is another obvious case, actually Haas can still give a good match to anyone in the top 8 bar Nadal and Del Potro.

Haas never took a set and it's easy to see why. He can't hit through Nadal at all and Rafa systematically breaks down his BH with his topspin FH. I suppose this matchup could look more competitive if they played on grass when it's still fast though.
I guess it doesn't help that Haas didn't play Del Potro until he was at the top of the game and after Haas was at the top of his.
 
#136 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

I don't actually think the backhand is the problem for Haas against Nadal. It's more like he can't fathom the amount of grinding and effort it would take to actually beat him. Mentally speaking he's cooked before he even steps on court.

Haas has excellent defense so that's not his issue against Del Potro. He just gets overpowered by his consistent depth and pace and starts spraying errors. I'd like to see what happens when he plays him on grass though.
 
#139 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

I can't remember if I mentioned Simon/Tisparevic earlier because I have a horrible memory but this matchup should also be added after another victory in Miami. Simon's shots are too deep to be attackable but soft enough that Tipsarevic has to create his own pace. When Tipsy has to create his own pace, he presses and makes errors and if he stays back and rallies he can't outlast Gilles. Tipsarevic also doesn't come to the net enough to throw Gilles off and put pressure on him like a Tsonga. Finally, Simon can read Tipsy's serve well which is essential for Gilles because his own serve will get broken quite a few times.
 
#140 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

I can't remember if I mentioned Simon/Tisparevic earlier because I have a horrible memory but this matchup should also be added after another victory in Miami. Simon's shots are too deep to be attackable but soft enough that Tipsarevic has to create his own pace. When Tipsy has to create his own pace, he presses and makes errors and if he stays back and rallies he can't outlast Gilles. Tipsarevic also doesn't come to the net enough to throw Gilles off and put pressure on him like a Tsonga. Finally, Simon can read Tipsy's serve well which is essential for Gilles because his own serve will get broken quite a few times.
I addressed this in the result thread:

For more or less the same reason he is a bad matchup for the likes of Berdych, Del Potro, even Federer. Simon might just be the toughest player on tour to downright hit through off the baseline, not because he's particularly fast but because his anticipation is great and he has an underrated variety of shot. He always looks like he's going to smack the ball but he never does... except when he does. It is very difficult to get any sort of rhythm against Simon on the baseline. He does a brilliant job of denying players like Berdych and Tipsy among others the angles of the court to work with.

Then again, such a limited game will obviously generate its fair share of bad matchups, look at how players with huge, reliable servers and who can finish points off quickly at the net like Tsonga and Llodra totally own him, the same for players who can outlast him in rallies (Murray, Djokovic, Nadal...).
Simon is actually one of the most fascinating players on tour from a matchup analysis perspective. This is a guy who gives fits to Federer and Del Potro, yet gets completely owned by guys like Llodra and Gasquet.
 
#143 · (Edited)
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Hey this is one of the top 10 MTF threads for me. Very logical stuff (no sarcasm here!). I read it's 10 pages :yeah: Sometimes i wonder if a top 50 player Actually followed only MTF's advices , instead of hiring a tactical coach , will he improve his ranking or his ranking gonna sink like an anchor.
However On-topic guys.
Haas brought me alot of thoughts here.
I wondered for around 5 minutes ... why Does Kolya leads 4-1 the head-to-head against Haas and the only Haas win is in the 2007 AO QFs 7-5 in the third set. (Davy lead *3-1 in the fifth set). Can someone answer ? I doesn't seem to understand why Davy gives so much trouble to Haas?
 
#146 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Hey this is one of the top 10 MTF threads for me. Very logical stuff (no sarcasm here!). I read it's 10 pages :yeah: Sometimes i wonder if a top 50 player Actually followed only MTF's advices , instead of hiring a tactical coach , will he improve his ranking or his ranking gonna sink like an anchor.
However On-topic guys.
Haas brought me alot of thoughts here.
I wondered for around 5 minutes ... why Does Kolya leads 4-1 the head-to-head against Haas and the only Haas win is in the 2007 AO QFs 7-5 in the third set. (Davy lead *3-1 in the fifth set). Can someone answer ? I doesn't seem to understand why Davy gives so much trouble to Haas?
From what I've watched of their matches, there's no glaring matchup issue here, they match up pretty well. However, Davydenko was generally a better player than Haas/in better form when they faced, as expected considering Haas's struggles throughout his career. They played mostly tight matches too, off clay at least.

Haas leads Simon 5-1. Theoretically he should be a bad match up.
Why do you think so? Simon usually prefers big hitting/ballbashing opponents whose pace he can feed off. Haas has a lot more variety and the ability to finish points off at the net seamlessly, that's the kind of player Simon usually struggles against.
 
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#147 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

What makes Berdych/Delpo relatively tight? I would've imagined that Berdych's style would've been easy for Delpo, yet it's "only" 4-3, and there have been tight matches there (RG 2012). It's not even like Tsonga either where some of their matches were when Delpo was hurt and his patterns are less consistent.
 
#148 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

What makes Berdych/Delpo relatively tight? I would've imagined that Berdych's style would've been easy for Delpo, yet it's "only" 4-3, and there have been tight matches there (RG 2012). It's not even like Tsonga either where some of their matches were when Delpo was hurt and his patterns are less consistent.
It's 4-2 actually. Delpo was sick in the Tokyo 2008 final (ended up withdrawing the following week in Vienna after barely beating Fischer) and the Madrid 2012 surface is great for Berdych, favors his more aggressive style - not to mention that might just have been the best week of tennis Berdych has ever played apart from the choke in the final, he absolutely destroyed everyone until SF and outplayed Del Potro too.

Apart from that, it was generally easy pickings for Del Potro. He even won when he was far from his best form like RG 2012, where he struggled with his knee all tournament long. On slow surfaces, this is a very tough matchup for Berdych, who is always bound to get overpowered on the long run.
 
#155 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players



Not much to say here. Actually the topspin forehand vs one handed backhand isn't even Gasquet's main issue in this matchup, he's just even more 'trapped' than against Ferrer. If he tries to step in and hit through Nadal, Nadal will easily defend him into oblivion, if he stays back Nadal will easily outgrind him. He lacks the power and/or the speed/defense/movement to really hurt Nadal. This coupled with the FH vs BH dynamics creates a huge mismatch.

Gasquet is no match for top 4. It's irrelevant. Even playing his very top level, he can barely snatch a TB before getting baked. He has no answer to big 4, like 99.9% of players in the world. Look at what happened to Tsonga 2 weeks ago. And he is #8 and supposed to compete with these guys. There are on a whole different planet.

other interesting/odd match-ups:

Code:
GAËL MONFILS	8-1	PHILIPP KOHLSCHREIBER
MIKHAIL YOUZHNY	4-0	NICOLAS ALMAGRO
DAVID NALBANDIAN6-1	ROBIN SODERLING
ROBIN SODERLING	5-0	JO-WILFRIED TSONGA
DMITRY TURSUNOV	5-2	RICHARD GASQUET
Haven't watched enough to give any good views of Youznhy vs Almagro and Tursunov vs Gasquet unfortunately. As for the other three:

Monfils vs Kohlschreiber

Monfils gets to a lot of balls but unlike most great defenders he hits with a lot of power, his forehand and backhand are both among the biggest on tour. Kohli notoriously struggles against powerful flat shots and ends up shanking a lot, as well as feeling the need to go for too much. It's also become a mental issue in recent matches imo.

Nalbandian vs Soderling

Angles, angles, angles... Nalbandian (at least in his heyday) is a horrible matchup for flat power hitters with poor movement, he has little problems absorbing their power and moving them around with short angles, he's also a brilliant returner of serve.

Soderling vs Tsonga

Tsonga struggles against big hitters in general, since he's on the back foot in rallies too often for his liking and his backhand can't hold up. His horrible return of serve only makes it worse.
 
#153 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Single-handed backhand has something to do with it, plus Nadal is just a much better player.

That's it simply, plus he also seems to struggle with grinders in general who don't play flat.
 
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