Mens Tennis Forums banner

The Federer Decline Thread

113K views 2K replies 396 participants last post by  Rychu 
#1 ·
An interesting piece from Tom Perotta

Relax Federer faithful, it's only March

by Tom Perotta
Special to ESPN.com


No, dear fans of Roger Federer, the sky isn't falling. The No. 1 ranking is not in jeopardy just yet. It isn't time for your man to do something drastic, like hiring Brad Gilbert as a coach, shaving his head or asking Wilson to design him a new racket or some new strings. He doesn't need any encouragement from Tiger Woods, who has been tightening his grip on the title of "most dominant athlete in the world." He doesn't need to change his technique or his strategy or his training methods. One loss to Andy Murray at a small tournament in Federer's de facto home of Dubai doesn't doom a career.

Still worried? That's reasonable enough. Federer looked flat in Australia, understandable considering the food poisoning he had before the tournament began. It was also recently revealed the Swiss had mononucleosis -- unbeknownst to him at the time -- Down Under. However, before he played Murray, he said he was fit and eager to play. He seemed ready to make a statement, that statement being, "I'm Roger Federer, and you are not." He had to have been confident despite not playing in five weeks, since he had won in Dubai in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2007 -- and lost in the final in 2006.

This would be his first appearance since losing to Novak Djokovic, the man most people peg as the next No. 1 player in the world (the confident Djokovic is no doubt one of those people). It was the Swiss' first chance to remind his rivals who runs the tour. Instead, Murray was only reminded that Federer's forehand occasionally disappears for games at a time.

Perhaps you're not worried about the Murray match, but something else? You're concerned that Federer has a long year ahead of him. He's scheduled to play more tournaments than usual, plus the Olympic Games in Beijing. He also has more good players to contend with than at any other point in his career. In four years as the No. 1 player in the world, Federer hasn't had to overcome a lot of obstacles at one time. He's had no season-ending injuries, no personal tragedies and no consistent threats on the tour other than Rafael Nadal on clay and, the past two years, Nadal at Wimbledon.

In the next two years, he'll face adversity, in the form of Djokovic, Nadal, Murray and maybe, just maybe, a player like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, wherever he goes. He'll have to worry more about injury as he ages. He'll have to worry about losing motivation or confidence if he loses a few more matches. He'll have to deal with the pressure of being two major titles away from Pete Sampras' record of 14 -- so close, but still quite far away considering how abruptly a dominant tennis career can end (a 25-year-old John McEnroe won two majors in 1984 but couldn't win another one in his final eight years on the tour).

Federer has a lot on his mind, and a lot left to accomplish, but there's no cause for worry. In tennis, confidence comes and goes quickly. Remember how things looked in November? Federer dominated his last three matches at the Masters Cup and Djokovic ended the year with five consecutive losses and seemed destined for a slump in 2008.

Andy Murray wasted no time derailing Roger Federer's hopes of getting back on track in Dubai.
A little more than three months later, Djokovic is the Australian Open champion and taken seriously when he makes absurd comments, like: "Considering the results this year, I expected Murray to win." No doubt, Murray was going to have a chance, but Djokovic expected Murray to win? Really? What results was he looking at? Couldn't have been that first-round loss Murray suffered at the Australian Open to Tsonga. Maybe it was his first-round loss to Robin Haase, ranked No. 94 in the world, in Rotterdam a few weeks ago. A convincing performance indeed.

There was a lot to dislike about the way Federer played against Murray. He returned terribly (he didn't win a single point against Murray's first serve in the third set, 0-for-14) and he sprayed a lot of forehands. He was aced 10 times -- a credit to Murray but rare against Federer (Andy Roddick usually won't ace Federer that often in three sets).

Still, there was a lot to like, too. Federer frequently attacked the net, as he did in Shanghai last year. He served well in the first and third sets. He seemed to move well, which wasn't the case by the end of the Australian Open. Why doubt that he'll return to the form he had just a few months ago? He's had cold streaks before and come out of them just fine. Remember Guillermo Canas and Filippo Volandri? Canas beat Federer twice last year and Volandri beat him once. By the end of 2007, did those losses mean anything at all?

While the early loss in Dubai deprived Federer of a few useful warm-up matches leading up to Indian Wells, it might also help him. He can now fly to the United States sooner than he might have planned for the Sampras exhibition next week. Last year, Federer lost his first match at Indian Wells, in the second round, after winning it the previous three seasons. He stands to gain a lot of ranking points if he does well. He could gain a few more in Miami, where he lost in the fourth round. If he wins both tournaments and performs well at Estoril, Portugal, where he didn't play last year, he'll have a cushion over Nadal in the rankings that the Spaniard won't be able to top without a Federer flop at Roland Garros or Wimbledon, or a sensational hard-court season from Nadal (which has yet to happen). Djokovic has a lot of points to defend in the coming weeks, too, and he's still 1,300 points behind Federer.

If Sampras double-bagels Federer at their exhibition Monday night, maybe then Federer fans will have something to worry about. Otherwise, remember that it's only March. You might end up remembering this season as the best of Federer's career.

Tom Perrotta is a senior editor at Tennis Magazine.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Eden
#40 ·
Re: Two Posts Worthy of its Own Thread - Sharing is Caring Guys!

MTF is allergic to perspective.

Also, there are not enough threads about Fedmug in GM.
 
#43 ·
Re: A Post and Some Figures Worthy of its Own Thread - Sharing is Caring Guys!

Another day, another batch of :rolleyes: threads
 
#44 ·
Re: A Post and Some Figures Worthy of its Own Thread - Sharing is Caring Guys!

the poster is forgetting the fact that roger has been playing crap since last yrs aus open and not only this yr. he barely escaped wimb defeat (though ill admire him for the champions quality he showed there) and shouldve lost the us open but thanks to chokovic, and then his loses to canas, volandri and nalby also showed that he is no more as dominant as he was before and hell have to work more hard to win the tournaments so he just cant put all the blame on mono. in simple roger decline had started long ago before that mono thing
 
#52 ·
Federer, less weight of shot?

Hmm it seems that Fed's weight of shot is not that high as it used to be. Just watching the first half of the year, other younger guys are stronger and more powerful. Ultimately, Fed can be overpowered now. He can't rely on his FH all the time. And he's not in his 21-24yr old "prime" when he was truly supreme and powerful.

One would think that since Fed was "bullied" by Nadal on clay, maybe he can be "Bullied" on a slow grass surface also? Nadal may finally be closing the gap(but i expect Nadal to struggle on hard courts).

Also look at the Monfils match, he was literally overpowering fed for 3 sets. Monfils hopefully(if he keeps his brain) will use this as an inspiration as he is certainly top 10 if he can step up to the baseline(not 2 metres behind!)
 
#60 ·
Re: Federer, less weight of shot?

Hmm it seems that Fed's weight of shot is not that high as it used to be. Just watching the first half of the year, other younger guys are stronger and more powerful. Ultimately, Fed can be overpowered now. He can't rely on his FH all the time. And he's not in his 21-24yr old "prime" when he was truly supreme and powerful.

One would think that since Fed was "bullied" by Nadal on clay, maybe he can be "Bullied" on a slow grass surface also? Nadal may finally be closing the gap(but i expect Nadal to struggle on hard courts).

Also look at the Monfils match, he was literally overpowering fed for 3 sets. Monfils hopefully(if he keeps his brain) will use this as an inspiration as he is certainly top 10 if he can step up to the baseline(not 2 metres behind!)
Look, Federer is an old fart. I noticed liver spots on his hand when I was checking out his forehand grip.
 
#53 ·
Re: Federer, less weight of shot?

Federer is becoming weak because of old age. By the US Open he will be playing with a walking stick if he hasn't retired from tennis already.
 
#54 ·
Re: Federer, less weight of shot?

Federer is so weak, he is getting overpowered by the Santoros and Volandris of the world.

He will be able to claim his pension soon.
 
#55 ·
Re: Federer, less weight of shot?

In the occasional match he'll hit his FH well like in previous years.

But generally, his FH isn't a dominating shot anymore. Hasn't been since Wimbledon last year. His serve has improved though.
 
#57 ·
Re: Federer, less weight of shot?

its sad to hear that 26 years old is already old, ai, after 4 years, rafa will become an old man too :sad:
 
#61 ·
Re: Federer, less weight of shot?

Federer's strenght is in place. He's in his prime. His skill is still amazing. Unfortunately his problems are more mental, which means all his shots are less reliable. Serve, FH, volley...
 
#66 ·
#67 ·
Re: Perspective on the "Federer decline"

All the speculatiion on the decline of Roger is basically wishful thinking on the part of fans of his rivals. It is simply laughable to say that a player of Roger's caliber is declining and is a has been based on poor performance in half of one season. Considering Roger is not yet 27 years old, I think it's ludicrous to proclaim his impending demise.
Does anybody remember that prior to Agassi's win RG '99 he had reached a very low ranking and had to play challengers? Sampras captured quite a few grand slam titles past the age of 26. Do you remember the time when Becker gave Sampras the wild card in Vienna so he can be in contention for the end of the year number one ranking? I am sorry I am not good in dates but I am sure you can google everything I wrote here and get the exact dates. The point I am making is it's too early, as Star has said to consign Federer to the has been heap. In my opinion, I am sure Roger will come back to win Wimbledon and the U.S. Open because now he is motivated to prove his detractor's wrong.
 
#68 ·
Federer On The Razor's Edge

Even though Federer has enshrined himself in the pantheon of the greats; it seems to me that there is a question that weighs heavily on his mind, which bewilders and bothers him, like no other query has before. The question is a simple one for players past their prime to answer, but a very difficult one for someone like Federer who is not quite certain whether he is past his prime or just running a temporary loss of form, albeit a long one. The problem gets magnified when it becomes a question of belief for the champion (Am I still good enough?).

The question Federer asks himself, I conjecture-- as some would have guessed by now-- is, “Has my time come to exit or should I continue playing?”

“No Fed, don’t retire. You are too good. There’s a slam waiting. End of discussion!” I can almost hear the loyal followers of his game argue, but I deem it as perfectly reasonable speculation, this pertinent question I have put forward.

Is he suffering a temporary setback or is he genuinely past his prime? Let’s reason this. For more than half a season this year, Federer has won nothing of notable importance. Yet, outwardly he projects himself as a contender for the Olympics, the Flushing Meadows, and next year’s Wimbledon, but inwardly; he continues to crack at the big moments, getting nervous and losing early matches to players he might have owned in the past. He claims he’s fit, and can carry on for years, but are his claims a result of honest introspection, or just a flatulent show of confidence?

To me, Federer appears confused as he can’t seem to figure out whether he is indeed heading towards the exit door of the theatre he outperformed everyone in, or just going through the biggest bad phase he’s ever had in his career. Having basked in Grand Slam glory for 4 consecutive years, I’m sure he feels that he can grab a few more (he won three slams only last year); the thought of equalling Sampras’ record of 14 slams being especially tantalising—- ‘So close, yet so far’, as they say.

Should Federer get hooked to the thought of chasing Pistol Pete’s glory and continue playing, he faces two obvious predicaments. Either he can win slams or he can’t win any. If he wins one slam soon enough, it might entice him to carry on for a while with the hope of getting just another, but if he doesn’t win any for maybe another whole year (2009), he risks becoming an expired number 1 like a Safin or an Agassi whom everyone enjoys walloping because it’s a prestigious addition to their resumé.
On the other hand, if Federer’s confidence is just ostentatious, then it is better that he retires soon (while in the top five), instead of giving himself false hopes that he can ride the chariot of glory once again.

Also consider this absurd scenario if Federer continues to play without winning. Will we, as fans of his game watch him ripped of his throne and carry on tournament after tournament without winning anything substantial or going deep into them? Can we watch him torment us with first round exits while he concentrates on his especial mental and nervous weaknesses, and tries to overcome them? Are we strong enough to watch The Federer Express roll down the rankings to number five or even lower? I’m just speculating, of course, but can you imagine the Roger Federer as a world number five??? OR would we rather he retire while he’s still the king of the castle?

As I mentioned in the opening passage, the battle rests primarily on his self-belief— it is a question of self belief— but even Safin believes, as do Hewitt and Moya. So clearly, belief is only a good start, after which he’ll have to continue observing his flaws, but will he be strong enough to not be overwhelmed by consecutive losses he’ll suffer during this down phase and keep his confidence and vision awake even as the whole tour finds more and more ****** in his royal armour? This is maybe Federer’s first genuine test of resilience. I hope he passes it because he surely has other-worldly talent to do so, but will he learn how to conquer his mind, his demons and his nerves? That remains to be seen.

Help Federer answer this bleeding question on the edge. Should he go, or should he stay? Discuss and vote.

BTW, hugs to some of the MTF'rs I know. :wavey:
Long time since I posted here.
 
  • Like
Reactions: prima donna
#69 ·
Re: Perspective on the "Federer decline"

well he is sponsored by gillette. maybe he should give the razor to nadull and murray as a present. they need it far more than he does.
 
#70 ·
Re: Perspective on the "Federer decline"

I guess the big question of whether or not Federer can continue dominating is because there hasn't been a player quite like him before. All the greats before him had to continually claw their way into the #1 spot, only to see it go to someone else for a couple weeks when the dozen other competitors raised their game. Things were never truly constant, so there were no safe certainties to rely on. And that was the reason they'd keep fighting. Federer, on the other hand, has dominated like no other. He never had a "slump" where he'd fight back for the top position. Now that he's finally down, what is someone like him supposed to do? He hasn't been the underdog in 4 years, and seemed to thrive on the idea that he was the best; his aura alone was enough to take down nearly everyone else.

This might be stupid rambling that doesn't make sense, but this is what I see nowadays with Federer. He just looks frustrated out there and a little confused.
 
#71 ·
Re: Perspective on the "Federer decline"

I guess the big question of whether or not Federer can continue dominating is because there hasn't been a player quite like him before. All the greats before him had to continually claw their way into the #1 spot, only to see it go to someone else for a couple weeks when the dozen other competitors raised their game. Things were never truly constant, so there were no safe certainties to rely on. And that was the reason they'd keep fighting. Federer, on the other hand, has dominated like no other. He never had a "slump" where he'd fight back for the top position. Now that he's finally down, what is someone like him supposed to do? He hasn't been the underdog in 4 years, and seemed to thrive on the idea that he was the best; his aura alone was enough to take down nearly everyone else.

This might be stupid rambling that doesn't make sense, but this is what I see nowadays with Federer. He just looks frustrated out there and a little confused.
Maybe losing his dominance can get him fired back up again.
 
#72 ·
Federer in Denial that there's a Problem

I've followed women's tennis a lot in years gone by, and there's a resonance of Graf-Seles about the Nadal-Federer rivalry.

In 1990, up until losing to Seles in Berlin, Graf was on a 66-match winning streak, the second longest in history. She was then defeated once again by the unconventional Yugoslav, whose game was far less than aesthetic to the tennis purists, in Paris a month later. Not long afterwards, she not only relinquished her number one ranking to Seles, but all of a sudden she was more vulnerable to the likes of Sanchez-Vicario, Sabatini, Novotna and Navratilova.

My point? Like Nadal, Seles was not the text book tennis player, and Graf had been taught that those who played as Seles did would not make it. They would unravel, they had too many ****** in their armour, and she was superior. In her mind, she just kept on having a bad day; it was only a matter of time before the tables were reversed. And so she went on as if there wasn't a problem - and stayed number two in the world.

Hopefully a stabbing won't afford Federer the space to regain his confidence and once again win major championships. But like Graf, Federer is a get-on-with-it sort of guy. His glass is always half full.

Now that is usually a good philosophy, but balance is required in everything in order to achieve success. Roger's glass is swaying dangerously to one side, and he's lost some of that winning solution as a result. Federer needs to admit to himself that he has genuine problems against Nadal's game, and that some of those problems are caused by qualities Nadal possesses, which he does not.

Once Federer has done that, he can work to countervail Nadal's heavy topspun forehands and re-impose his own game. Like Graf in facing Seles, Federer is five years older, knows that in theory he has the ability to break down Nadal's game, and a touch of arrogance -- I should not be losing to this player -- dents his ability to see that there is a unique problem posed by Nadal.

When he has faced up to his challenge, and seen Nadal as his equal, he will not need to place himself under the stifling pressure of being, in his own mind, the better player who shouldn't be losing these matches.

And then he won't be losing to the likes of James Blake in major tournaments, good player though Blake is.
 
#73 ·
Re: Federer in Denial that there's a Problem

Now that is usually a good philosophy, but balance is required in everything in order to achieve success. Roger's glass is swaying dangerously to one side, and he's lost some of that winning solution as a result. Federer needs to admit to himself that he has genuine problems against Nadal's game, and that some of those problems are caused by qualities Nadal possesses, which he does not.
The part in bold is very, very difficult for a Champion's ego to admit. For as long as Federer does not admit Rafa to be better than him in certain aspects, he'll never get the better of him.

Once Federer has done that, he can work to countervail Nadal's heavy topspun forehands and re-impose his own game. Like Graf in facing Seles, Federer is five years older, knows that in theory he has the ability to break down Nadal's game, and a touch of arrogance -- I should not be losing to this player -- dents his ability to see that there is a unique problem posed by Nadal.
Same point as the one above.

When he has faced up to his challenge, and seen Nadal as his equal, he will not need to place himself under the stifling pressure of being, in his own mind, the better player who shouldn't be losing these matches.
Fed has to grow humble. Forget winning or losing, forget being number 1 or 2 or 10. Get back to becoming a player of the sport, and who knows, I'm certain he'll once again see the yellow ball and himself on the court sans any opponent.

And then he won't be losing to the likes of James Blake in major tournaments, good player though Blake is.
The way he's going, any one playing above their average has a chance.
 
#74 ·
Re: Perspective on the "Federer decline"

BeautifulTommy, not quoting your post due to it's length. I agree with some of the points you make, but, it's not only Nadal that Federer is losing to. So developing some sort of strategy based solely on one guy when you are in fact losing to more than to just that player does not make sense.
I know Nadal fans like to think that Nadal conquered Federer, but the truth is, he's losing to a lot of guys right now. Which tells you it's not just Nadals style of play that's giving him problems. It's pretty obvious that his confidence is at an all time low. How players regain confidence (if they ever do) is a very personal and individual thing. Fed will just have to figure out what works for him. Maybe he will regain it, maybe he won't, only time will tell.
 
#75 ·
Re: Perspective on the "Federer decline"

BeautifulTommy, not quoting your post due to it's length. I agree with some of the points you make, but, it's not only Nadal that Federer is losing to. So developing some sort of strategy based solely on one guy when you are in fact losing to more than to just that player does not make sense.
I know Nadal fans like to think that Nadal conquered Federer, but the truth is, he's losing to a lot of guys right now. Which tells you it's not just Nadals style of play that's giving him problems. It's pretty obvious that his confidence is at an all time low. How players regain confidence (if they ever do) is a very personal and individual thing. Fed will just have to figure out what works for him. Maybe he will regain it, maybe he won't, only time will tell.
Listen Granpa McTK!
Not all Nadal fans think that way. I was just trying to highlight some of the points that Fed might have too take note of when he plays his opponents. I happened to used Rafa's example because it was provided. Like Fed needing to FOCUS is a general assertion against any opponent, not just Nadal.:p
 
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top