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The most #1 record reached thread

50K views 415 replies 63 participants last post by  Mr.Black 
#1 · (Edited)
UPDATE:
HE FINALLY DID IT...!!!!!!


ok thread closed... we've counted our chickens way too early... and now the record has been thrown by federer... congrats to nadal deservingly getting back world no.1 with a stunning clay season.... but i think federer is not done yet and can still get a chance in future... but for now... this thread shall RIP....

Now that Roger has won the AOpen and has a very good chance to surpass Sampras 286 weeks at #1 record, I did suggested to have a thread to keep track of the progress, so I thought I might as well start the thread myself. Now, this is one major record where by you can actually predict in advance and count down to it, unlike other records. So the purpose of this track is to see how close is Federer going to break this record. I will continue to update this thread after every major tournaments until the record itself is broken.

This thread serves a different purpose from the rankings thread, the main purpose of this thread is to project the number of weeks Roger will be at #1, and the count continues until Roger reaches #287 weeks. While it may not be possible for the players in this thread to overtake, there could potentially be others who could overtake. We can't be 100% certain unless we calculate for the rest as well. But that task is too much so we will restrict to the top challengers. So as far as the projection goes, it will be based on 100% certainty that roger will be at #1.

Important numbers to know:

Roger's record at #1 (as of 17th May 2010): 283 weeks

Sampras record at #1: 286 weeks

Assuming Roger does not lose the #1, date to surpass Sampras record: 14 Jun 2010 (287 weeks)

Roger is GUARANTEED at: 285 weeks at #1 (31 May 2010)

Roger's ranking points (as of 19th Apr 2010): 10030 (incl davis cup)

The 2 remaining contenders (and points on 17th May 2010):
Code:
Nadal (6880)
Djokovic (6405)
Points roger needs to earn to GUARENTEE breaking 286 weeks at no.1: 920

and this means that A SEMI-FINALS IN ROLAND GARROS WILL GUARANTEE TYING THE RECORD!!!

Points roger needs to earn to GUARENTEE eliminating the players from overtaking before record #287 is reached:
Djokovic - 385
Nadal - 920

The following are the tournaments and drop off dates and points of all the contenders until 14 Jun 2010 (that's 1 week after Roland Garos).

Name (Total points to drop off until 14 Jun 2010)

Code:
Federer (Total 4170)
22-Mar-10 Indian Wells   360
05-Apr-10 Miami	         360
19-Apr-10 Monte-Carlo     90
03-May-10 Rome           360
17-May-10 Madrid        1000
07-Jun-10 Roland Garros	2000

Djokovic (Total 3330)
01-Mar-10 Dubai          500
22-Mar-10 Indian Wells   180
05-Apr-10 Miami	         600
19-Apr-10 Monte-Carlo    600
03-May-10 Rome           600
10-May-10 Belgrade       250
17-May-10 Madrid         360
07-Jun-10 Roland Garros	  90
14-Jun-10 Halle          150

Nadal (Total 4760)
15-Feb-10 Rotterdam      300
22-Mar-10 Indian Wells  1000
05-Apr-10 Miami	         180
19-Apr-10 Monte-Carlo   1000
26-Apr-10 Barcelona      500
03-May-10 Rome          1000
17-May-10 Madrid         600
07-Jun-10 Roland Garros	 180

Now we look at 2010 calendar and independantly assume the WORST CASE scenario for Roger vs each of his competitors BEST CASE scenario.

WORST CASE scenario is of cos, if federer takes a long holiday and doesn't turn up at any tournaments, hence getting 0 points.

BEST CASE scenario is to win all 4 compulsory ATP 1000 (Indian Wells, Miami, Rome, Madrid), win Monte-Carlo + max out 3 other ATP 500, max out 2 other ATP 250 tournaments by 14 Jun 2010.

Now, looking at individual players on how they could achieve BEST CASE scenario for the ATP 500 and 250:

[CODE]Djokovic
[s]01-03-10 Defend Dubai (maximum 3 x ATP500)
10-05-10 Defend Belgrade[/s]
14-06-10 Win and improve on Halle (max out 2 x ATP250)

Nadal
[s]22-02-10 Win Memphis (misses due to injury)
01-03-10 Win Dubai
12-04-10 Win Morocco or Houston 
26-04-10 Win Barcelona (max out 3 x ATP500)
10-05-10 win Belgrade or Estoril
24-05-10 win Nice[/s]
14-06-10 win Queens (max out 2 x ATP250)

The following is the points that can be improved on each week AFTER any points in 2009 dropped off.

[CODE]
Date      Weeks at #1  Federer  Djokovic  Nadal
15-02-10     0                       0        0
22-02-10   271                       0        0
01-03-10   272                     500       70
22-03-10   275               45     90      360
05-04-10   277               45     10    1,000
12-04-10   278                       0        0
19-04-10   279                     360    1,000
26-04-10   280                       0        0
03-05-10   281               10    180    1,000
10-05-10   282               90     45        0
17-05-10   283              600      0    1,000
24-05-10   284                       0        0
07-06-10   286                   2,000    2,000
14-06-10   287                     250      250
The total points in WORST CASE scenario will be
Code:
Date      Weeks at #1  Federer  Djokovic  Nadal
01-02-10      268      11,350     8,310   7,670
15-02-10      270      11,350     8,310   7,370
22-02-10      271      11,350     8,310   7,370
01-03-10      272      11,350     8,310   7,440
22-03-10      275      11,035     8,220   6,800
05-04-10      277      10,765     7,630   6,980
12-04-10      278      10,765     7,630   6,980
19-04-10      279      10,690     7,390   6,980
26-04-10      280      10,690     7,390   6,480
03-05-10      281      10,340     6,970   6,480
10-05-10      282      10,430     6,765   6,480
17-05-10      283      10,030     6,405   6,880
[b]24-05-10      284      10,030     6,405   6,880[/b]
07-06-10      286       8,030     8,315   8,700
14-06-10      287       8,030     8,415   8,950
Code:
ATP Ranking rules:
[url]http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/Rankings-FAQ.aspx[/url]

[CODE]Points (champion/runner-up)
Grand Slam (2000/1200)
WTM 1000 (1000/600)
WTM 500 (500/300)
WTM 250 (250/150)
ATP said:
Q. What is the ranking structure and formula in 2010?

A. In 2010, any player who finished in the 2009 year-end Top 30 will be required to compete in four Grand Slam tournaments and eight ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments. In addition, the Best 4 ATP World Tour 500 and Best 2 other events (ATP World Tour 250 and Challengers) will be counted towards a player's ranking. All direct acceptance players at the time of the entry deadline who do not play will receive a 0-pointer in their ranking. A player who is out of competition for 30 or more days, due to a verified injury, will not receive any penalties. For other players outside the Top 30, the ranking structure that applies, IF QUALIFIED, will be four Grand Slam tournaments and eight ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments. The Best 6 with up to 4 ATP World Tour 500 results will also be counted towards the ranking. If a player is not a Direct Acceptance and did not play a Grand Slam or Masters 1000 tournament, he can substitute with ATP World Tour 250 and/or Challengers. The eight players who qualify for the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals will count an additional 19th tournament on their ranking.
ATP 2010 Calendar:
http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tournaments/Event-Calendar.aspx

The following are the ATP tournaments and the effective dates of the points earned:
08-Feb-10 ATP250 (Johannesburg, Zagreb, Santiago)
15-Feb-10 ATP250 (San Jose, Brasil) ATP500 (Rotterdam)
22-Feb-10 ATP250 (Marseille, Buenos Aires) ATP500 (Memphis)
01-Mar-10 ATP250 (Delray) ATP500 (Dubai, Mexico)
22-Mar-10 ATP1000 (Indian Wells)
05-Apr-10 ATP1000 (Miami)
12-Apr-10 ATP250 (Morocco, Houston)
19-Apr-10 ATP1000 (Monte-Carlo)
26-Apr-10 ATP500 (Barcelona)
03-May-10 ATP1000 (Rome)
10-May-10 ATP250 (Munich, Belgrade, Estoril)
17-May-10 ATP1000 (Madrid)

24-May-10 ATP250 (Dusseldorf, Nice)
07-Jun-10 Grand Slam (Roland Garros)
14-Jun-10 ATP250 (Halle, London)
[/code]

NOTES:
P.S. If i made any mistakes in my calculations / stats above... do help to point out... :)

15-Feb updates:
- Del Potro is ruled out all the way to Dubai, so i have removed his points from that period. But in theory he could still replace the tournaments missed with Casablanca/Houston, Barcelona and Munich/Serbia/Estoril
- Memphis is going to start and nadal looks like going to miss it... so points will be taken away from Nadal...
- Both Djokovic and Davydenko lost in the semis of Rotterdam... hence neither of them adds on any additional points
- Murray and Nadal misses Rotterdam and drops 500 and 300 points respectively... hence Nadal overtakes and become no.3...

22-Feb updates:
- Virtually a non-event week, other than del potro dropping a few peanuts from Memphis... nobody else lost nor gain anything... so nothing much to update...

22-Mar updates:
- Dubai went by without anything more than fluttering of a piece of grass - roger misses as usual, djokovic defended as expected...
- Finally an ATP1000 tournament..! although roger faltered early... losing over 300 points in rankings... all the others except for davydenko lost points too... nadal losing the most points (the 70 points earned from davis cup doesn't help much)... not only did he drop back to no.4... it also becomes impossible for nadal to overtake roger until after roland garros. also with the closest competitors djokovic and murray failing to take advantage of roger's early exit... it means that they missed out opportunity to earn several hundreds of ranking points... and it impossible for roger to be overtaken until madrid... putting roger's #1 record at 282...
- now... next up is Miami... if roger wins it... the #1 ranking is untouchable until roland garros (that'll be guarenteed #285 weeks at #1... where #286 week is when roland garros ends...) and he will have minimum of 10,225 points b4 roland garros... and djokovic can get at most 10,060 and murray 10,035...

30 Mar updates:
- decide to update the stats earlier since the 2 closest competitor (in terms of points) djokovic and murray lost their opening match in miami... as a result federer is just 1 week shy to equal sampras record... the next leap to 286 or 287 weeks will take quite a while since there is still over 1.8k points to clear the hurdle...

4 Apr updates:
- not surprisingly (at least to me...) nadal did not win miami... but at least he is the only one in top 6 who actually gained poitns from last year... the 2 closest competitor djokovic and murray lost even more points than roger... murray the defending champion lost a cool 990 points by exiting in his first game. this makes djokovic **firmly in the lead in the chances (mathematically) of overtaking roger after roland garros.

19 Apr updates:
- as expected... nadal cleans up monte carlo... murray and djokovic drops more points... while the gap between federer and murray/djokovic becomes greater... nadal closed the gap because federer simply skips monte carlo... while mathematically it's still djokovic, followed by murray and nadal as the closest... i would expect next tournament or two... nadal will be mathematically closer than murray to overtaking federer at #1 after RG...

22 Apr updates:
- decided to update this early since none of the candidates in this thread is playing barcelona... so it is as good as over...

4 May updates:
- another MAJOR screw up by roger... although the closest rival (mathematically) lost more points than roger... nadal has lived up to expectations and continued his dominance in the clay tournaments. now originally when the thread was started... it was INCONCEIVABLE then that he will gather less than several hundred points before RG... but apparently this is what he has been doing so far!! he has earned a paltry 145 points since AO... that is almost to the WORST CASE scenario possible...! things are not looking so good now. not only nadal have a good chance of spoiling the party... djokovic may also join in. the rest of the names in the list (murray, JMDP, davy) are almost out of contention and are likely to be out soon...

10 May updates:
- roger can't even win mickey mouse tournaments... it still remains good chance to lose #1 rankings after RG... with djokovic out of madrid means nadal mathematically becomes the favourite to spoil the party... and with his form and dominance on clay... it's likely he will do well... so it's mostly up to roger to maintain that #1 record...
- JMDP and davydenko mathematically are no longer possible to stop roger... hence i have removed them from this thread... and that's 2 less ppl to track!!

17 May updates:
- although roger failed to defend madrid... but at least he did so much better than the previous 3 tournaments and in madrid alone he scored almost 4 times the points he did in all the previous 4 tournaments added together since aopen. but all that points added together is still lesser than a GS win. while nadal doesn't disappoint at all and scored 3k points just in last 3 tournaments alone... and look likely to regain RG. but the gap was so big between roger and nadal that there is still decent chance of securing the record at RG.
- it helps that djokovic missed madrid... so he becomes unlikely to stop roger's record... although mathematically there is still a chance. murray on other hand has no more chances mathematically of stopping the record hence he has been removed from the record...
- also nadal is not playing nice so i have eliminated the points that he could have won from it...

18 May updates:
- added queens for nadal...

here's a greater details of breakdown of points (credits to ApproachShot for the link, and maintained by sdont from Talk Tennis at Tennis Warehouse) :
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t5kw3WwZburtWwvB2y6xbGg&gid=5

** as mentioned that this thread is to countdown to the record by keeping track the maximum points of each players mathematically... hence djokovic is *still* top contender as far as maths go. however considering the form of players and the clay season is here... most tennis fans would consider nadal as the biggest threat..
well............ it was getting more and more painful to update and at least finally i can stop updating it...


regards,
wacky
 
#39 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Well that significantly closes the gap.

Ljuba Truba takes down Nadal, and the Soderking destroyed Muezza.
 
#42 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

I'm not sure about something: If Fed were to be number 1 at the start of Roland Garros, would the two weeks of Roland Garros count towards his total even if he lost the no.1 ranking after Roland Garros?

Fed is looking good for the record. Win Miami now please and make it all but inevitable!
 
#43 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

I'm not sure about something: If Fed were to be number 1 at the start of Roland Garros, would the two weeks of Roland Garros count towards his total even if he lost the no.1 ranking after Roland Garros?

Fed is looking good for the record. Win Miami now please and make it all but inevitable!

Yes. Federer will retain his 2000 points from winning Roland Garros last year until 6th June, when it will be replaced by the points he gets from this year's tournament.
 
#44 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

The problem is that for the record he needs to retain his points. Taking RG out of the equation would put him only 1300 points down from clinching number one until RG. I believe that Murray is the only one who can still catch him before RG.
 
#45 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

The problem is that for the record he needs to retain his points. Taking RG out of the equation would put him only 1300 points down from clinching number one until RG. I believe that Murray is the only one who can still catch him before RG.
well at this point... i seriously don't see anybody being a threat to the record... not even djokovic or murray...

but we are talking based on what the numbers show... djokovic is the closest to catching roger currently... if u plan to exclude the ATP500s... then djokovic is even closer to catching compared to murray... since he already has more points in the ATP500 department than murray... and in theory only nadal will not overtake before RG... all the others in this thread could still overtake before RG (assuming JMDP and Davy last min could still join miami... if they doesn't then both won't overtake roger before RG)...


regards,
wacky
 
#49 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

The problem is that for the record he needs to retain his points. Taking RG out of the equation would put him only 1300 points down from clinching number one until RG. I believe that Murray is the only one who can still catch him before RG.
Well I've not read the first post, but Djokovic is still definitely the main threat for the record.

So far for the record (points after the Queens/Halle) when you take off every point which players will lose by then, you have :

Code:
Federer	7 235
Djokovic	5 760
Davydenko	4 785
Murray	4 685
Del Potro	4 405
Roddick	3 430
Nadal	3 350
Söderling	2 895
Then Djoko "only" has to get 1500 more points than Federer by then.
With 6000 points he could possibly get, among which 2000 points in RG, it's far from impossible.

Federer should stay number 1 until the end of Roland-Garros (which would bring his record to 285 weeks, only one week from the record), that's nearly sure, but all of the problem is to still be number 1 after Roland-Garros (in that case Fed would be equal with Sampras, and he would beat him if he's still number 1 after the Queens/Halle).

What's "reassuring" for Federer is that Djokovic is not precisely reassuring recently, and Davydenko is injured. Same for Del Potro.

The second threat would be Nadal imo, more than Murray. He can still catch him after winning Roland-Garros. But he should also be nearly perfect before, and Federer quite poor.
 
#46 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

but we are talking based on what the numbers show... djokovic is the closest to catching roger currently... if u plan to exclude the ATP500s... then djokovic is even closer to catching compared to murray... since he already has more points in the ATP500 department than murray... and in theory only nadal will not overtake before RG... all the others in this thread could still overtake before RG (assuming JMDP and Davy last min could still join miami... if they doesn't then both won't overtake roger before RG)...
Murray simply has fewer points tied up in the clay season. Joker can't really rise much higher than he already is because he did so well at this time last year. Murray on the other hand has a much higher potential.
 
#50 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Yes, Djoko is the closest to Federer currently, but he's also defending more points. I still say Murray is the largest threat.
 
#51 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Yes, Djoko is the closest to Federer currently, but he's also defending more points. I still say Murray is the largest threat.
I guess you didn't understand that the countdown I just did before was after taking off all points players are going to lose (I don't like the word "to defend" because the points from previous year are definitely lost anyway, I rather see the new achievements as "new points" than "defending" imo) until the Queens.

it means that after taking out all those points, Djokovic is still 1000 points ahead of Murray
 
#53 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

I guess you didn't understand that the countdown I just did
Excuse me. It's you who doesn't understand the countdown I am doing. Murray has far more potential points out there than Djokovic. He did not have a great clay season, and if he does well this year, he is by far the biggest threat.

it means that after taking out all those points, Djokovic is still 1000 points ahead of Murray
No, he's not. Right now Murray has a 1200 point gap on Djokovic and Del Potro in potential points.
 
#57 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Excuse me. It's you who doesn't understand the countdown I am doing. Murray has far more potential points out there than Djokovic. He did not have a great clay season, and if he does well this year, he is by far the biggest threat.



No, he's not. Right now Murray has a 1200 point gap on Djokovic and Del Potro in potential points.
sorry but can you break down how you get all the points into the points from each tournament...? cos i still have no clue how u get those numbers... in particularly for djokovic.. :confused:


regards,
wacky
 
#54 · (Edited)
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

(7225) Federer Minimum
[8490] Nadal Maximum
[8840] Djokovic Maximum (-1000)
[8940] Del Potro Maximum (-1000)
[9480] Murray Maximum (-1000)

These are the standings right now. Roger, if he plays nothing until RG ends has 7225 points minimum. Every point he earns from now until RG will add to his point total.

Murray is currently at 10480 maximum points, if he were to win Miami, MC, Rome, Madrid and RG.

Edit, and he gets bounced. Excellent. The Gap is down to 2255, meaning that Fed cannot be caught until the end of Madrid, and only by Murray. Any of Nadal, Djokovic, Del Potro, or Murray can still catch him at RG, as well as most of the field.
 
#56 · (Edited)
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

(7225) Federer Minimum
[8490] Nadal Maximum
[8840] Djokovic Maximum (-1000)
[8940] Del Potro Maximum (-1000)
[10480] Murray Maximum

These are the standings right now. Roger, if he plays nothing until RG ends has 7225 points minimum. Every point he earns from now until RG will add to his point total.

Murray is currently at 10480 maximum points, if he were to win Miami, MC, Rome, Madrid and RG.

Djokovic is currently at 8840 maximum points, if he wins MC, Rome, Madrid and RG.

Currently Murray is now the limiter on Roger's weeks at number one, which he has now clinched until MC. Murray cannot pass Federer until MC, assuming he wins here in Miami and in MC, and Federer earns no points in either tournament. I believe that puts Roger at 381 now, only 5 weeks shy.
Here are my figures :shrug:

Here are the maximums I get after the Queens for these 4 players.

I don't consider Murray playing MM clay tournaments, only Monte-Carlo, I mean it's already so impossible to think that he will win RG, Miami + 3 clay MS 1000 that it's useless to add that he will ask a WC for a MM clay tournament :lol:

As for Nadal and Del Potro I only count Monte-Carlo, Barcelona and the Queens, here's what I have :

maximum :

Djokovic 11080 (wins RG + 3 clay MS1000 + Belgrade and Queens)
Murray 10925 (wins Miami + RG + 3 clay MS1000 + Queens)
Del Potro 10155 (wins RG + 3 clay MS1000 + Barcelona + Queens)
Nadal 10090 (wins Miami + RG + 3 clay MS1000 + Barcelona + Queens)

Anyway, I think the only reasonable threat is Nadal, in a very lesser extent still Djokovic if he comes back from his current mess and totally reigns on clay season but it's hard to believe.

Only Nadal can really do it, I guess.

Please note that Federer would have 7235 points by then if he withdrew everywhere ((I consider that he does play Miami yet),
which means that the number of points Fed would need in case Nadal wins everything is only 2800 points=10090-7235

2800 points being nearly the maximum he can get if Nadal wins everything and Fed takes part in the tournaments he said (reaching the final in Miami, Roma, Madrid and RG and winning Estoril and Halle he would have 3500 points=600+600+250+600+1200+250),

the equation is quite simple : it all depends on Nadal winning everything imo :shrug:

But if Nadal doesn't win in Miami, the situation will already be better ;)

I hope I'm correct :lol:
 
#58 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

According to my little spreadsheet Djokovic and Murray are now the first players who can pass Federer as no.1 and both can do so after Madrid. At this point Del Porto and Nadal can only pass him after RG. This all assumes Fed losing all his matches and the others winning all their matches.
 
#59 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

According to my little spreadsheet Djokovic and Murray are now the first players who can pass Federer as no.1 and both can do so after Madrid. At this point Del Porto and Nadal can only pass him after RG. This all assumes Fed losing all his matches and the others winning all their matches.
I guess you suppose that Djokovic plays Houston or casablanca, because if not there's no way for him to catch Fed after Madrid in my calculation :shrug:
 
#66 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Guaranteed 285 weeks now, if I've calculated correctly. A few additional points in Miami would be nice, though.
yes... 285 weeks is guaranteed now from my calculations too... :worship:

I cant quite believe Murray and Djokovic even were discussed as the threats to Federer's record when we all know Nadal has it in him to win everything until RG, it wouldnt really even surprise me even with his knee problems.
well the thing is i called this thread "countdown to record #1" thread because realistically i din even think anyone can stop roger from taking the record (at the time when the thread started)... not even nadal. but given the maths we can't be certain to hand the #1 record to him yet. so it's not so much of who is bigger threat to the record but it's about when we can hand the #1 record to him... and i am talking about giving him the record BEFORE 287 weeks is up... and so when this day comes then my job is done here and can stop updating this thread (the thread will then be called "congrats on record #1 thread" or something) and start celebrating... :aparty:

and wow thanks for sticking my thread...! :D


regards,
wacky
 
#63 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

"Thanks so much, Djoko and Muzza! You've done an awesome job for us. We'll be eternally grateful and be sure to return the compliment in... 2015 or so. :nerner:

Kind Regards,

Rog & Raf"

:p
 
#65 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

I cant quite believe Murray and Djokovic even were discussed as the threats to Federer's record when we all know Nadal has it in him to win everything until RG, it wouldnt really even surprise me even with his knee problems.
 
#70 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

MarcRD: I think part of the reason why Nadal was relatively less discussed was because he has/had a HUGE number of points to defend. Even currently, if he wins everything in sight, Federer needs to gain around 2950 points to make Nadals results inconsequential. That can be achieved by finals in Miami, Rome and Madrid + RG final so not completely out of hand but an uphill task.
 
#71 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

sorry but can you break down how you get all the points into the points from each tournament...? cos i still have no clue how u get those numbers... in particularly for djokovic..
What I did was take the 5 top players and their total number of points after the AO.

Then what I did was award Djoko, Murray, Del Potro and Nadal their respective maximums assuming that micky mouse tournaments won't have a substantial effect on the outcome.

Then I compare this to Fed's minimum. When Fed's minimum exceeds that of everyone's maximum, then we know he has clinched.

As the tournaments have progressed, I have added points to Federer and subtracted points from the rest according to their performance.
 
#73 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Nadal is more likely to win every single tournament he enters until RG than Murray's odds of winning RG.

Nadal would probably be 1 in 2 to win atleast 2 clay master series, Barcelona+RG. Nadal is 1 in 4 to win Miami, he would be 1 in 2 to win another master series. That means he counting with my odds is 1 in 16 to win all tournaments from now on and 1 in 4 to win all tournaments during clay season (he almost did it 2007).

Murray is less than 1 in 40 to simply win RG, he is 1 in 30 to win every clay master series he takes part in. Djokovic is probably 1 in 10 to win RG and 1 in 8 to win each clay master series.

Nadal is not only the biggest threat, it is obviously the only threat.
 
#75 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

urm djokovic has more points after AO than murray (510 points more)
Yes, but you don't quite understand. I tallied all the tournaments and points that they had after RG all the way to after the AO as the base.

This is why Murray is still a greater threat than Djoko, for the simple reason that he piled on more points from June of last year, to February of this year. Djoko, on the other hand, has a substantial amount his points based on this section of the season. Now when I award both of them their maximums, Djokovic gets zero benefits for doing well last year in these tournaments, and Murray gets rewarded for doing poorly, even though they receive the exactly same thing, a win.
 
#76 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Yes, but you don't quite understand. I tallied all the tournaments and points that they had after RG all the way to after the AO as the base.

This is why Murray is still a greater threat than Djoko, for the simple reason that he piled on more points from June of last year, to February of this year. Djoko, on the other hand, has a substantial amount his points based on this section of the season. Now when I award both of them their maximums, Djokovic gets zero benefits for doing well last year in these tournaments, and Murray gets rewarded for doing poorly, even though they receive the exactly same thing, a win.
I think there is some error in your calculation. I just did some quick calculations here (including the three 500 W for Djokovic) and it is Djokovic who actually leads Murray in the number of points from RG 09 to IW/Miami. According to my calculations Djokovic has a base of 5570 and Murray at 4450. Adding the 5500~ point maximum for both, you reach a technical maximum of 1170 and 9950.
 
#77 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Djokovic leads by 1100 points, but having a lot of his points in 500s means he can only gain 820 points by winning MC and cannot gain anything in Barcelona, while Murray can gain 1500 points in Barcelona and MC by winning both. This is why the potential difference between them is not the same as the actual points won so far difference.
 
#78 ·
Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Djokovic leads by 1100 points, but having a lot of his points in 500s means he can only gain 820 points by winning MC and cannot gain anything in Barcelona, while Murray can gain 1500 points in Barcelona and MC by winning both. This is why the potential difference between them is not the same as the actual points won so far difference.
I get that but, when counting down from RG to now, we don't count MC. So he can "gain" 1000 points from MC. Also agreed that Murray can gain 1500 but the difference still remains 500 points which is still smaller than the difference of 1100 points.

Anyways, I still think Murray and Djokovic will be non-factors in the race to 287. Even if Djokovic regains form, he will be exchanging points with Nadal thereby ensuring Federer's spot.

I think the best bet now would be for Djokovic and Nadal to keep winning alternate tournaments so that no one player gets the chunk of points.
 
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