3/10 De Bakker tb Seppi @ 4.1
De Bakker is a nice talent who has been having some trouble breaking through. He has all the talent, strokes and quality to reach the top 100 in no time but especially the mental aspect hasn't been good for him. Because of this he is mostly playing at Futures but has had his good results on Challenger level as well, especially on Dutch soil. Most of those results were on clay but by no means is he a typical claycourter with his powerful strokes and big serve. In front of the home crowd he has a chance for an upset and his good display against Tursunov last week (7-5 7-6 loss) is a good sign for me. Seppi of course is the far better player but also one that lacks specific qualities. He had a great run here last year but that was with far slower balls and on a far slower court. Seppi has little match practice under his belt with now 4 losses in a row. Nothing to be ashamed of after two encounters with Federer, one with Mathieu and one with Zverev but I can't see it as a possitive thing either. I expected De Bakker to be around 3.2 so this is very good value.
Haas(-5.5) to beat Poerschke 1.85 or under 18.5 1.85
Lars plays his tennis mostly on futures clay tournaments rarely he plays hardcourt tennis...its not that i trust Haas here...just feel obligate to fade alot weaker player in this match...he really sholunt win more than 6 games here...HC or under it is similar depend on personal taste
Almagro(-5.5) to beat Hocevar 1.85 or under 18.5 1.85
MM clay tournament is a place where Almagro plays his best stuff...no pressure or top class opponents...guy have a big game on clay....i assume Hocevar will not be able to knick him out od his confort zone..Hocevar ss solid brazilian challenger player...but i doubt he can make it tough for Mugro here
Lalo is a confidence player....i think the easyest place to beat him is the first rounds.....yea the balls are fast and the courts aswell...but Lalo is not one to trust in first round...Banny is a mug but he sholud have upper hand in baseline rallys as he is more consistent from the back...solid 18-11 with Leftys
sholud be close and i am fading Lalo here
Very obvious which ones to avoid today: all the Russians for one ( at least Davydenko is playing Andreev so it's 2 birds with a stone, never mind that Kolya's odds are dropping ) Tursunov & Lopez ( Clement and Benneteau might lose but indoors is where they have had some good results in recent years. ).
So I've decided to put a treble on Seppi ( price is rising but De Bakker is not making strides even at challenger level ) Schwank and Granollers ( nice odds to beat Junquiera and Saretta respectively ). Also, just by looking at the odds I think it's very generous on Kanepi to beat AMG ( I know AMG has had a few good results on hard but Kanepi is the better player on this court and it should show eventually ) and Pavlyuchenkova to beat Razzano ( not sure why the odds are the way they are, Pavlyuchenkova is by far the more talented player here. So we see what happens.
main picks:
Seppi x Granollers x Schwank = 2.45
Pervak x Dushevina @ 2.00
extras:
Kanepi @ 1.85
Pavlyuchenkova @ 1.85
is this just for fun or you think he can cover it.
I read his Thread here...saw u are a big fan..Huge FC...ok onehander and preety weak serve he have as i saw from the reports...Junoir/Futures level
you think he can compete here?
i am asking this as i was ready to back The Birdcrap -5.5...it is a nobrainer to me...but maybe i doesnt see Dimitrov potential?
What's wrong with Nieminen, i wanted to take him at @1.55 (it looks like a fair price) but i'm little worried that no one is even mentioning this match ?
Nieminen hasnt been seen since his injury so his current form is pure guesswork, his last indoors match in US was.....he has never played one so again guesswork how he will perform.
Serras results this year are like a sea saw. He went well in Brisbane to reach 1/4 and take a set from inform Verdasco. Then a complete letdown in Auckland and Melbourne. His indoors season stared with a good win vs Gicquel in Zagreb and a loss to eventual tournament winner Cilic in r2. He now has a transcontinental flight and a time change to cope with so his current condition is some more guesswork.
I would be surprised to see anyone without some inside information put more than pocket change on a match involving this much guesswork.
Tim Da Baker +1.5 set over Seppi @ $2.00
Li Na over Szvay @ $1.55
Kunitysin over Rochus $1.40
Kunitysin 2-0 @ $2.10
Schwank over Janquiera @ $1.50
Davydenko over Andreev @ $1.43
I see Llodra is playing doubles right now. It's supposed to be streamed on the website but it ain't working. would be good to watch to see how he's playing. he hasn't lost a point on serve yet anyway but the very high percentage is slightly worrying.
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