Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread
Nadal is more likely to win every single tournament he enters until RG than Murray's odds of winning RG.
Nadal would probably be 1 in 2 to win atleast 2 clay master series, Barcelona+RG. Nadal is 1 in 4 to win Miami, he would be 1 in 2 to win another master series. That means he counting with my odds is 1 in 16 to win all tournaments from now on and 1 in 4 to win all tournaments during clay season (he almost did it 2007).
Murray is less than 1 in 40 to simply win RG, he is 1 in 30 to win every clay master series he takes part in. Djokovic is probably 1 in 10 to win RG and 1 in 8 to win each clay master series.
Nadal is not only the biggest threat, it is obviously the only threat.