Troicki will win. He'll take advantage of the low seeds like he did in SW19 with Granollers and Monaco.
You can say Troicki had his share of weak draws, but on the other hand, his career is 'ruined' (as much as you can say that someone's career has been ruined while he reached #12 in the world) by Djokovic. He gets him every time he plays good. Whenever he shows some form, it's like 'hey, have a go at Djokovic again'. And he's very much underrated here. Yes, he's a choker, yes, he's not as flashy as some other players, but he doesn't deserve to drop out from top40. And plus, he plays vs Uglynek, my most hated player, so Troicki all the way