Originally Posted by duong
I would be surprised if Fed won a slam next year, but that story about "stars aligning" can be said for many slam winners.
What if Fed had not defeated Djokovic in RG 2011 final ? would Nadal have won ? the semifinal depended on a very few points, and Djokovic was in a great streak against Nadal, and Nadal felt unconfident against him, as it showed in Wimbledon final.
What if Fed had converted his match points against Djokovic in the USO 2011 semifinal ? Moya and Toni Nadal firmly believe that Nadal was the real loser that day, not Fed.
Djokovic's win in the AO 2012 also depended on a few points
etc etc ... most slam wins partly depend on luck, very very seldom it's not the case.
There's a big contradiction between the big part of hazard in all that and the fans' definitive assertions about "this will never happen" etc ...
And Fed could be luckier than having to face Djokovic and Murray to win Wimbledon. For instance he was luckier in AO 2010.
I don't get that idea that some have that Fed's success or not only depends on Nadal : outside of clay, he can very well defeat Nadal anyway,
and he can very well be defeated by many other players : Djokovic is by far the favorite against him, Murray has a leading H2H, Berdych, Del Po, Tsonga ...
I agree to an extent. Obviously Federer has only been dominated by Nadal on clay
throughout his career.
But the fact remains that Federer has not beaten Nadal in a major since 2007. They have met since then on all surfaces in majors (although never at the US Open, as we all know). Federer has not bested Nadal once. That's now, what, five times in five years without a win over five sets?
Based on these stats, it would be hard to argue that Federer hasn't got a FAR bigger chance of winning a major NOW if Nadal is not around, or is carrying an injury (or whatever it is this time).