This post was in the "matches your most looking forward to" thread, but I think it's appropriate here in the Federer regain #1 thread:
Originally Posted by masterclass
Imagine a first time Djokovic-Federer Wimbledon Final where they could possibly play for #1 in the world, similar to Djokovic-Nadal at last year's Wimbledon.
A Federer win at Wimbledon would be a 2440 ranking point net swing. That's a lot of points.
Assuming the top 3 all make it to the semifinals/final, here are the 6 possibilities in order of gain for Federer on Djokovic in Djokovic-Federer meetings.
Given points gained/loss per result (R):
R Federer Djok. Nadal
W +1640........ 0 +800
Fin. +840... -800.... 0
SF.. +360. -1280 -480
Federer d. Djokovic in semifinal, defeats Nadal in Final - Federer gains 2920 on Djokovic, 1640 on Nadal.
Federer d. Djokovic in Final, Nadal makes it to semis - Federer gains 2440 on Djokovic, 2120 on Nadal.
Federer d. Djokovic in semifinal, loses to Nadal in Final - Federer gains 2120 on Djokovic, 40 on Nadal.
Djokovic d. Federer in semifinal, loses to Nadal in Final - Federer gains 1160 on Djokovic, -440 to Nadal.
Djokovic d. Federer in Final, Nadal makes it to semis - Federer gains 840 on Djokovic, 1320 on Nadal.
Djokovic d. Federer in semifinal, defeats Nadal in Final - Federer gains 360 on Djokovic and Nadal.
Now one can see why Federer is taking a long rest now, and trying to peak for the grass season - it's not only for the Olympics.
It's also probably why Mr. Djokovic is going to fight hard for improvement at Roland Garros, making a final or winning there. He needs a great clay season to maintain or increase his point lead pre-Wimbledon.
Mr. Djokovic is defending so many points this year, it's going to be very tough for him, a "curse" of having such a great year the year before. If he falters prior to the finals at either Wimbledon or the US Open, he opens the door for Federer to pick up a lot of points. But still Federer must play well enough to take advantage of that and not get upset by a Tsonga, a Berdych, or a Roddick for that matter. The draws will give us a better idea of his chances. Nadal is defending at Roland Garros, so must hold onto that first. But then he also defends finals at Wimbledon and the US Open. So he also has little room to falter. Mr. Federer is in the best position to take advantage this year, but whether he can do it or not, is another question.