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Yashirobai 11-16-2006 06:15 PM

Ideas and tactics about betting on tennis
 
I was wondering if anyone has some "principles" when deciding what looks like a good bet in the tennis world.

For instance, would you bet on your most favourite or hated players? (As the fact that you are not neutral towards them might influence your decision);
do you think it is a good idea going for extremely safe bets (such as Federer, 1st round where you may get 1.01)? Or you think it's a better option to bet for a possible upset? Would you ever put a big amount of money on a particular bet if you were very convinced it would work out, or you'd never do it? Do you have any particular strategies?

Any thoughts, techniques, tactics and ideas are welcome.

adee-gee 11-16-2006 06:17 PM

Re: Ideas and tactics about betting on tennis
 
First piece of advice - Go to to the gamlers forum :)

jayjay 11-16-2006 06:35 PM

Re: Ideas and tactics about betting on tennis
 
Quote:

For instance, would you bet on your most favourite or hated players? (As the fact that you are not neutral towards them might influence your decision);
If you bring emotion to gambling, you will lose out in the long run. If you want to start with a rule book, rule 1. Do your homework, gamble with your head, not with your heart.

Quote:

do you think it is a good idea going for extremely safe bets (such as Federer, 1st round where you may get 1.01)?
No. You should forget any match where the price is lower than 1/5. I still deal in fractions. :p It depends who you are and what you're staking. Ideally, singles and doubles. The more selections, the bigger danger.

Quote:

Or you think it's a better option to bet for a possible upset?
25% of underdogs win out in Slams and Masters events across the board. Look for match ups and slip ups by the bookie, they make them, so make them pay when they do.

Quote:

Would you ever put a big amount of money on a particular bet if you were very convinced it would work out, or you'd never do it?
Yes. Gamble what you can afford to lose. Otherwise, take up gardening or something.

Quote:

Do you have any particular strategies?
Yes. Do your homework, watch as much sport (tennis) as you can. Be as informed as you can be, don't make mistakes because you were too lazy to check up on information that is readily available on the world wide web.

Quote:

Any thoughts, techniques, tactics and ideas are welcome.
Gambling is not a joke. Take it seriously if you want to do it well, and don't fool yourself. Take stats, know what you're good at, and what you're not. Work harder on what you are good at, and leave well alone what you are not.

If you are not hitting regularly over 65%, you won't make a living out of this. So be aware, that 1 in 2, is not enough. The prices are in the bookies favour, not yours.

Yashirobai 11-16-2006 07:54 PM

Re: Ideas and tactics about betting on tennis
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jayjay (Post 4462806)
If you bring emotion to gambling, you will lose out in the long run. If you want to start with a rule book, rule 1. Do your homework, gamble with your head, not with your heart.



No. You should forget any match where the price is lower than 1/5. I still deal in fractions. :p It depends who you are and what you're staking. Ideally, singles and doubles. The more selections, the bigger danger.



25% of underdogs win out in Slams and Masters events across the board. Look for match ups and slip ups by the bookie, they make them, so make them pay when they do.



Yes. Gamble what you can afford to lose. Otherwise, take up gardening or something.



Yes. Do your homework, watch as much sport (tennis) as you can. Be as informed as you can be, don't make mistakes because you were too lazy to check up on information that is readily available on the world wide web.



Gambling is not a joke. Take it seriously if you want to do it well, and don't fool yourself. Take stats, know what you're good at, and what you're not. Work harder on what you are good at, and leave well alone what you are not.

If you are not hitting regularly over 65%, you won't make a living out of this. So be aware, that 1 in 2, is not enough. The prices are in the bookies favour, not yours.


Makes a lot of sense. Thanks for your advice

Boris Franz Ecker 11-16-2006 08:02 PM

Re: Ideas and tactics about betting on tennis
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Yashirobai (Post 4462748)
do you think it is a good idea going for extremely safe bets (such as Federer, 1st round where you may get 1.01)?

What do you want to win with 1.01? 1 Euro and risking 100?
10 Euro?

No....

I advise live betting.
You get great offers and you needn't to risk much money.

Example: Tomorrow.. Nadal loses the first set. In this moment, you get a great offer for a Nadal-Victory. You know what to do. Bet on him. He will be a thankful boy.

Horatio Caine 11-16-2006 08:23 PM

Re: Ideas and tactics about betting on tennis
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jayjay (Post 4462806)
If you are not hitting regularly over 65%, you won't make a living out of this. So be aware, that 1 in 2, is not enough. The prices are in the bookies favour, not yours.

I agree with all of that apart from this comment :)

I used to go for average odds of 1.60...and yes, as you say, hitting them 65% of the time allowed me to break even. However, for a little while now I have been hitting much higher odds, 2.00, 3.00, 4.00...this is the way to do it. I only have a 47% success but I have staked well and that has allowed me to get to +29% ROI.

Anything is possible :cool:

jayjay 11-16-2006 10:50 PM

Re: Ideas and tactics about betting on tennis
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Timeout (Post 4463158)
I agree with all of that apart from this comment :)

I used to go for average odds of 1.60...and yes, as you say, hitting them 65% of the time allowed me to break even. However, for a little while now I have been hitting much higher odds, 2.00, 3.00, 4.00...this is the way to do it. I only have a 47% success but I have staked well and that has allowed me to get to +29% ROI.

Anything is possible :cool:


It's true, technically speaking you can hit 90% and still come out with a loss. If you are staking say 1k 9 times at 1/2, then you come out with a profit of 4.5k, if you then go and blow a 5k bet at 1/10.

You come out 500 down, but yet 9 times out of 10 you were hitting.

The 65% is just a generally understood percentage, if you are playing consistent stakes, at consistent prices.

We know that things aren't necessarily like that, but what newcomers to the world of gambling should be aware of, is that if you can't even predict 65% to begin with, you should not try to take it up as anything more than an occasionally, inexpensive hobby. And I think that's a mistake people make who think this is an easy business. Every gambler has their bad periods, and I've had some pretty dark days myself at times, and basically my advice to people is stay away unless you have utmost confidence in what you are doing, have the stats to back up your belief in your ability, and are prepared for some very very bad moments, because they WILL happen to you no matter how good you are.

Another bit of advice of course to Yashirobai, is don't "chase". If you're unfamiliar with this term, it means when you lose, and feel the need (which you will) to make it back ASAP, and end up rushing into a pick that really you were not going to play at the start of the day.

All gamblers have chased at one time or another - much easier to give advice than take your own at times - and anyone will tell you, it hurts very bad. So make sure you get a handle on that discipline, because it's one of the main ones that if you don't get a hold of, can lead you to a slippery slope.

For the record Yashirobai, I know I may be coming across as the Grim Reaper with the stuff I'm telling you, but you asked for advice, so you should know the potential pitfalls as well as the possible benefits.

I liken gambling to being a shutdown corner in the NFL. No matter how fucking good you are, there will be times when you get burned. And if you don't have it in you to get up again and do it all over again, you should think very carefully before you start playing numbers you won't be able to handle.

Hope some of the things I've said will be helpful for you, and I'm sure others will chip in with their experiences too. :wavey:

good_gambler 11-17-2006 03:37 AM

Re: Ideas and tactics about betting on tennis
 
Piece of Advice Number 1 - Don't bet on Tennis. :p

:lol:

b_boy 11-17-2006 03:45 AM

Re: Ideas and tactics about betting on tennis
 
i agree :p

bad gambler 11-17-2006 04:47 AM

Re: Ideas and tactics about betting on tennis
 
Not specifically to tennis but applies to gambling in general

http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=77860

sports freak 11-17-2006 06:16 AM

Re: Ideas and tactics about betting on tennis
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by adee-gee (Post 4462754)
First piece of advice - Go to to the gamlers forum :)

Adee Gee :wavey: :)

sports freak 11-17-2006 06:17 AM

Re: Ideas and tactics about betting on tennis
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Yashirobai (Post 4462748)
I was wondering if anyone has some "principles" when deciding what looks like a good bet in the tennis world.

For instance, would you bet on your most favourite or hated players? (As the fact that you are not neutral towards them might influence your decision);
do you think it is a good idea going for extremely safe bets (such as Federer, 1st round where you may get 1.01)? Or you think it's a better option to bet for a possible upset? Would you ever put a big amount of money on a particular bet if you were very convinced it would work out, or you'd never do it? Do you have any particular strategies?

Any thoughts, techniques, tactics and ideas are welcome.

Stick to what works for you,everybody has different methods no doubt :)

Mr Flamboyant 11-17-2006 08:56 AM

Re: Ideas and tactics about betting on tennis
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by good_gambler (Post 4464203)
Piece of Advice Number 1 - Don't bet on Tennis. :p

:lol:

AB-SO-LUTELY! At the end of the day you're placing your money on ONE person .. You have NO IDEA what their frame of mind is about the match, whether they're fully fit or if they even feel like winning today!? I mean, what's a second round exit to most of these guys? They take their $10,000 and move on to the next tournament ..

Personally am marginally in front on tennis .. but for the number of bets I've had on it, it's simply not worth it .. There's too much money to be made on other sports to bother with Tennis IMO .. Basketball totals & Soccer .. that's where it's at!

If you MUST get involved in tennis, I think "TImeout" (the artist formerly known as "Jez") has the good oil .. pick your spots with underdogs and you'll gain more than you lose .. "Anders" has a great nose for this type of betting and his record is proof of that .. He probably wins 40% of bets at best, but is a long long way in front money wise because he bets underdogs ..

Having said that, I did find rhyme and reason to tennis betting (I always lean towards favourites) during the clay season .. Probably because there are guys who CAN play on clay, and guys who flat-out can't .. Given that some of the latter are top 20 players, you get some very good prices about lowly ranked clay specialists to beat highly ranked guys who hate the surface ..

Yashirobai 11-17-2006 02:07 PM

Re: Ideas and tactics about betting on tennis
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Flamboyant (Post 4464630)
AB-SO-LUTELY! At the end of the day you're placing your money on ONE person .. You have NO IDEA what their frame of mind is about the match, whether they're fully fit or if they even feel like winning today!? I mean, what's a second round exit to most of these guys? They take their $10,000 and move on to the next tournament ..

Personally am marginally in front on tennis .. but for the number of bets I've had on it, it's simply not worth it .. There's too much money to be made on other sports to bother with Tennis IMO .. Basketball totals & Soccer .. that's where it's at!

If you MUST get involved in tennis, I think "TImeout" (the artist formerly known as "Jez") has the good oil .. pick your spots with underdogs and you'll gain more than you lose .. "Anders" has a great nose for this type of betting and his record is proof of that .. He probably wins 40% of bets at best, but is a long long way in front money wise because he bets underdogs ..

Having said that, I did find rhyme and reason to tennis betting (I always lean towards favourites) during the clay season .. Probably because there are guys who CAN play on clay, and guys who flat-out can't .. Given that some of the latter are top 20 players, you get some very good prices about lowly ranked clay specialists to beat highly ranked guys who hate the surface ..

Why do you think it's better to bet on football or basket rather than on tennis?

jayjay 11-17-2006 02:45 PM

Re: Ideas and tactics about betting on tennis
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Yashirobai (Post 4466107)
Why do you think it's better to bet on football or basket rather than on tennis?

I disagree with Mr Flamboyant, but that's just because different people find different sports more productive for them.

I think you should leave Basketball and Baseball well alone. I won't go into the reasons for now as I don't have time, but unless you are well clued up on those sports and will pick and choose your spots, leave well alone. I applaud anyone who can consistently come out on top in those sports night to night, it's very difficult, I found at least.

My bread and butter is football, tennis and nfl. I once got in a dispute (light hearted) with a basketball pro gambler who couldn't understand why I would play tennis and that it seems too difficult. My view was the exact opposite to his, maybe it had more to do with my knowledge on the ins and outs being greater for tennis and him likewise for basketball.

Honestly though, I think there is a strong objective case to say Tennis is an easier (and one of the easiest) sports to play. I'll go into those reasons at a later time if anyone cares to know why I think that way.

Ultimately, the simple rule is, play the sports you know, leave the ones you don't.


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