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-   -   *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ *** (http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=255970)

born_on_clay 04-18-2013 07:08 PM

*** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***
 
WELCOME TO THE BETTING SHRINE

It is a place where we all can share with our bets and betting stategies for particular match / tournament.

Put all your questions and analysis in here.

Kudos to Pratik and Litotes who both backed-up the idea of creating this place :hatoff:

born_on_clay 04-18-2013 07:14 PM

Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***
 
Monte Carlo QF's:
My vcash: 36 000

Gasquet - Fognini
Hard one to bet imo. The odds for Gasquet too low to try.

Nadal - Dimitrov
0,04 on Nadal is too low to bet

Wawrinka - Tsonga
I'm gonna bet on Stan here. Not sure how much. About 2k I guess. It's a tricky bet.

Pratik 04-18-2013 07:51 PM

Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***
 
General Declaration and My Statistics:

I want to start by saying that all my posts here regarding amounts won/lost in a day/tournament will be only those on vBetting and do not include the amount earned by posting/voting/started threads/donations. I have an excel file with all my vBetting history(although not as detailed as the one Litotes keeps).

Overall Stats:


Most net amount won, top 10:


Most net amount lost, top 10(wrong order, sorry):


Most number of bets, top 5:


Most amount bet, top 5:


No. of players/doubles teams/countries(DC bets) bet on: 145

No. of countries bet on(bets on players from the country or DC bet or at least one of the doubles team from the country): 44

The reason some of these numbers are lop sided(especially amount bet on Federer, Roger) is because I used to bet very recklessly in the past. Now, only serious betting. My general strategy for each day is to bet on a spread of markets such that my net expected(in a probability sense) win is positive for that day. Amounts bet on underdogs should be covered by expected(again, probability sense) profits on favourites. Towards the end of the tournaments, when a spread is not possible, I bet my tournament winnings.

dinkulpus 04-18-2013 07:56 PM

Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***
 
Where I can find this stats Pratik?

scarecrows 04-18-2013 08:14 PM

Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***
 
do you bet real money Pratik?

Litotes 04-18-2013 10:56 PM

Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Marto (Post 14718354)
Where I can find this stats Pratik?

You have to make them yourself. The data from your previous betting is all there, but it will take some time to get organized. I started making stats immediately as I know from before I love stats and so didn't get the job of catching up like Pratik undertook.

Litotes 04-18-2013 10:57 PM

Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***
 
My general strategy is similar to Pratiks, I try to go in plus. Plus for the day, plus for the month, plus for the tournament and plus for vBetting in total. If I have a plus already towards the end of a tournament I will try to safe in a win, if not I might take bigger risks in search of one. Haven't had much success lately, though, with large minuses in all the last tournaments. I have a cautions style as far as amounts bet goes and have only once gone "all in" which was a sentimental bet on my favourite Federer in order to get him high up in my "most credits won on" statistic, as he had before then fallen to the extreme bottom on an ridiculous losing bet.

I have a boatload of statistics which I am not sure would interest people here, if someone thinks them interesting then ask and I will provide more detail. I can say in short that I've won 19011 credits and lost 21809, a net loss of 2798, despite being almost 2000 in plus earlier this year. Total amount bet is 288133. As an experienced better will tell immediately, I've mainly gone for the favourites. I tend to do better on favourites than outsiders, despite occasional big losses on the latter.

And if anyone should wonder, no, I have so far not bet real money.

Litotes 04-18-2013 11:09 PM

Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***
 
As for tomorrows matches I find the odds on Nadal not worth the trouble. 4/100 (1/25) means I'd be confident a win is more than 25 times as likely as a loss. Imaging 25 matches I see Dimitrov winning one. I probably won't bet on this match. I have changed my mind before, though.

Djokovic - Nieminen: Small injury concerns for Djokovic, cramps for Nieminen who's played a lot the last couple of days. Maybe a small bet on Nieminen. Either is likely to get injury concerns, which perhaps indicates the odds should be more even than those set by bookies.

Gasquet - Fognini: Gasquet huge favourite imo but the odds are not inspiring. The Fog is unlikely to keep up his good run, he tends to drop after good results, and the H2H is quite abysmal for him. Will make a bet for Gasquet who is one of my most successful players bet on.

Wawrinka - Tsonga. I've bet on Wawa every round so far and he's played really well but I'm anyway considering betting on Tsonga here. Haven't decided atm. I am afraid of "Giant-killer syndrome" where you follow up beating a top player by a worse performance.

Pratik 04-18-2013 11:21 PM

Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Marto (Post 14718354)
Where I can find this stats Pratik?

As Litotes already mentioned, I made them myself. It took a long time to compile them as when I decided to do so, I had already placed 400+ vBets. Now I update my excel file each day.

Quote:

Originally Posted by scarecrows (Post 14718610)
do you bet real money Pratik?

No. Although I probably will in the distant future. Still a student, so don't have earnings to bet from. Moreover, planning on going to grad school after this, so won't have money for real betting for a long time.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Litotes (Post 14720890)
I have a boatload of statistics which I am not sure would interest people here, if someone thinks them interesting then ask and I will provide more detail. I can say in short that I've won 19011 credits and lost 21809, a net loss of 2798, despite being almost 2000 in plus earlier this year. Total amount bet is 288133. As an experienced better will tell immediately, I've mainly gone for the favourites. I tend to do better on favourites than outsiders, despite occasional big losses on the latter.

As you already know, I am interested in any and every statistic you can offer. It can also prompt me to the same with my figures, like it did for the country bets.

You have bet almost as much as me, with much lesser number of bets.

Litotes 04-18-2013 11:29 PM

Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pratik (Post 14721194)
As you already know, I am interested in any and every statistic you can offer. It can also prompt me to the same with my figures, like it did for the country bets.

You have bet almost as much as me, with much lesser number of bets.

OK, I will present my results more comprehensively. I think I'll wait for (my betting on) MC to finish before doing so.

I'm not surprised I'm catching up fast in amount bet. Where I go 5000 on Nadal you go 2 on Matosevic....a large majority of my amount betted has been placed on huge favourites. When it comes to "potential payout", the sum you'd get if all bets were wins, you are far, far ahead of me. Which is only natural as you've been at this for longer.

born_on_clay 04-19-2013 07:51 AM

Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***
 
Guys, I'm impressed by your work :hatoff:
I don't have any excel data to back up my bets but I guess I will start collecting my previous bets and making some sort of database.

What do you think about Nole - Nieminen ? Is Nole worth a few pounds ? ;)

born_on_clay 04-19-2013 07:56 AM

Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Litotes (Post 14721058)
As for tomorrows matches I find the odds on Nadal not worth the trouble. 4/100 (1/25) means I'd be confident a win is more than 25 times as likely as a loss. Imaging 25 matches I see Dimitrov winning one. I probably won't bet on this match. I have changed my mind before, though.

Djokovic - Nieminen: Small injury concerns for Djokovic, cramps for Nieminen who's played a lot the last couple of days. Maybe a small bet on Nieminen. Either is likely to get injury concerns, which perhaps indicates the odds should be more even than those set by bookies.

Gasquet - Fognini: Gasquet huge favourite imo but the odds are not inspiring. The Fog is unlikely to keep up his good run, he tends to drop after good results, and the H2H is quite abysmal for him. Will make a bet for Gasquet who is one of my most successful players bet on.

Wawrinka - Tsonga. I've bet on Wawa every round so far and he's played really well but I'm anyway considering betting on Tsonga here. Haven't decided atm. I am afraid of "Giant-killer syndrome" where you follow up beating a top player by a worse performance.

Thank you for your analysis :hatoff:

I think I'll bet 2k on Wawrinka like I said before and maybe some money on Djokovic. It's temptimg to go all in on Rafa though :lol:

Litotes 04-19-2013 08:25 AM

Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by born_on_clay (Post 14723706)
Thank you for your analysis :hatoff:

I think I'll bet 2k on Wawrinka like I said before and maybe some money on Djokovic. It's temptimg to go all in on Rafa though :lol:

That will always be tempting on clay....I feel the temptation myself. But I've decided against going "all in" on a regular basis. Only takes one loss, even after 200 wins, and you're back on 0. For me, I decided 5000 is my maximum bet when I'm absolutely certain someone will win.

dinkulpus 04-19-2013 08:59 AM

Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***
 
I had 200 000 credits, but lost 150 000 on Federer in Rotterdam, from that time I didn't make any big bets :sad:

Pratik 04-19-2013 09:26 AM

Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***
 
Today's bets:
Frankly, I don't quite like any of the odds today, but I bet on all four markets to keep my streak alive. Fourth consecutive day of betting on all the markets present. I have bet on all markets, except a total of 5 in the first two days, in MC.

R. Gasquet vs. F. Fognini: Tough match to call. Fognini has been playing well, but yet the odds are quite long on him. So, he should be the natural pick. But, I get swayed because Richie is my favourite player. The h2h is also very telling with Fog wining just 4 games in 4 sets. 1000 on Richie.

S. Wawrinka vs. J-W. Tsonga: Another tough one. Tsonga has been playing surprisingly well, considering it is clay. But then Wawa has been as well. As long as he does not have a lull after the high, I think Stan should win this. I hate it when the bookmakers realize that the higher ranked player is not necessarily always the favourite. Why can't they be more stupid? 200 on Stan

N. Djokovic vs. J. Nieminen: With Nole's ankle and Jarrko's form, anything is possible. 50 on Nieminen.

R.Nadal vs. G.Dimitrov: 5 year birth year prophecy anyone? Wanted to keep the streak alive. 80 on Grisha. If he wins, I win 1440. To get that amount on Nadal, I need to bet 36K on Nadal which is a lot more than I have.

Have a sizeable profit on 2255 in MC, so can afford the risky 1000 bet on Richie.

Quote:

Originally Posted by born_on_clay (Post 14723706)
Thank you for your analysis :hatoff:

I think I'll bet 2k on Wawrinka like I said before and maybe some money on Djokovic. It's temptimg to go all in on Rafa though :lol:

As Litotes said, risk is too high. I used to all in way too often when I started vBetting about 6-7 months ago. Lost it all more times than I care to remember. Been betting seriously since IW, although I did go in all in during DC and lose. But, now only serious betting. I agree that high risk also has high reward, but for me, there is not fun in going all in. Betting over a spread is much more interesting, IMO.


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