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-   -   DOMbetting system, +20.78% YIELD (http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=214930)

tem82 01-10-2013 10:21 PM

DOMbetting system, +20.78% YIELD
 
I want to present you a mathematical betting system. I've been successfully using this approach for 2 years and this system gave me 21% yield. Everyone who bet realizes how hard it is to make a stable profit in a long term. And this is what this system offers - stable profit. It doesn't have to be 20% at the beginnig but once You learn how to play smart You will get there :)
OK, lets cut the bullshit:) How does it work? The main idea is to watch odds movements of "sharp" bookies who rule the odds market like Pinnacle. When Pinnacle drops the odd this is only the matter of time when every other bookie will do the same. The whole trick is that you need to be quicker and place a "bet with value" before the odd is dropped. Simple :)
To do that you need to have a tool that will monitor the odds market for you - here is the link for it. The application is very simple - it detects Pinnacle odds drops and displays notification and play sound alert.
To understand better the valuebet system here is a preview of tennis match (good example of odds movements)


As you can see Pinnacle‘s closing odd was 1.4 when Betaway was offering 1.75 odd. Would you take a shot and bet this with @1.75 odd knowing that its real value is 1.45?
The biggest advantage of that system is that You don't need to have knowledge about the sport you bet on at all so you can bet on everything that has value
You can read more about the system here (click).

Hope it's only a beginning of a nice topic. I am open to any suggestions. Post any question, I will be glad to help and share my knowledge and experience

philosophicalarf 01-12-2013 06:40 PM

Re: DOMbetting system, +20.78% YIELD
 
This is pretty common, it's called betting steam.

Every single book you try it on will limit your account to maximum stakes of near nothing, or simply close the account.

Rumblingbelly 01-15-2013 11:07 AM

Re: DOMbetting system, +20.78% YIELD
 
Of course everybody always takes the best odds available, whats new here?

tem82 01-15-2013 07:43 PM

Re: DOMbetting system, +20.78% YIELD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by philosophicalarf (Post 12685185)
This is pretty common, it's called betting steam.

ok, maybe it is, but lets talk about practice, not theory. You say it's common. Have you tried it? What is your experience and the results? Did you have any tool to catch "moving lines" ? Do you know anyone who takes advatage of moving lines ?
Quote:

Originally Posted by philosophicalarf (Post 12685185)
Every single book you try it on will limit your account to maximum stakes of near nothing, or simply close the account.

Yes, it's partly true. I have been betting like this for over 2 years and I had my account closed only at StanJames, VictorChandler and Ladbrokes. They simply asked me if I could withdraw my money and go to hell :) (not literally)
I have few accounts partly limited (like Marathon, paddy power), but am still able to bet. And there are bookies that still allow me to bet with decent stake (bet365, bwin, expekt, william hill... ). It's almost 100 bookies (or even more?) on the market so I think we will be able to use that system for a loooong time.
btw - try to keep winning, have a constant positive yield playing any other system (or no system at all,whatever) and see what happens. Bookies are no charity institution and they can close your account whenever they want. But is it really that big problem ? :)

tem82 01-15-2013 07:49 PM

Re: DOMbetting system, +20.78% YIELD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Rumblingbelly (Post 12750850)
Of course everybody always takes the best odds available, whats new here?

It's not about taking best available odd, but about betting with value included in the odd(not every bet has a value, acctually there are only few and it's about finding them)

philosophicalarf 01-15-2013 10:20 PM

Re: DOMbetting system, +20.78% YIELD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by tem82 (Post 12760186)
ok, maybe it is, but lets talk about practice, not theory. You say it's common. Have you tried it? What is your experience and the results? Did you have any tool to catch "moving lines" ? Do you know anyone who takes advatage of moving lines ?


I'm limited to basically nothing at approx 150 books :-) In tennis, that leaves me with just pinnacle, SBO and IBC. For exchanges, only matchbook - can't even use betfair because of premium charge.

If you want to know: sure, steam-betting will work, until you lose the account - bookies hate steam, because it gives them severely lopsided liabilities, and people doing it aren't going to lose.

Moves past 10% or so have heavy +EV at the original price, because they're incorporating new info into the market (usually injury, sometimes form). In other words, there was value at the original price - bet value at the appropriate stake, you'll win long term.

That's not just theory either, I've got all the market movement data on atp/wta/challenger moneylines since 2005. Openers, closers, and everything inbetween. Also totals/handicaps since 07, and more spotty coverage of correct scores.

Rumblingbelly 01-16-2013 06:39 AM

Re: DOMbetting system, +20.78% YIELD
 
Very often when odds drop it means nothing, I remember a match between Go Soeda vs Brian dabul, odds on Soeda went from +2.00 to 1.25 and I remember one guy asking "isnt it value to bet Soeda at 1.25 because its fixed anyway?" :stupid:
Dabul won easy 2-0 and it left me wondering what caused such a massive odds collapse.

philosophicalarf 01-16-2013 05:20 PM

Re: DOMbetting system, +20.78% YIELD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Rumblingbelly (Post 12773433)
Very often when odds drop it means nothing, I remember a match between Go Soeda vs Brian dabul, odds on Soeda went from +2.00 to 1.25 and I remember one guy asking "isnt it value to bet Soeda at 1.25 because its fixed anyway?" :stupid:
Dabul won easy 2-0 and it left me wondering what caused such a massive odds collapse.

Yeah, I remember that - there was quite a bit of manipulation around then, after a few high profile fixes. That was actually the biggest "reverse move" of the last decade. The next biggest:

Dolgo-Petzschner Toronto 2010: many 10ks on petzschner to win first set. went on to lose after
Koellerer-Ancic Munich 2010: manipulation iirc. Koellerer later banned for match fixing
Russell-Hartfield Casa 2007: don't remember
Clement-Baghdatis UO 2010: short odds chasing I think, then the heat got Baggy
Falla-Andujar Estoril 2011: retiral



The manipulation trick was for somebody to start a rumour, then buy betfair down from 2.00 to 1.80, lots of others jump on the bandwagon. Then the original guys jump on the other side at 4.0 or more :-) Not seen that in a couple of years now.


However, these are relatively rare, matches with odds moves >40% where the end result went against the money. There are more than 5x as many with >40% where the money was on the winning side, and the moves are a lot bigger. For example, Kravchuk-Lee in Moscow 2006, Kravchuk opened at 5.5, closed at 1.46 :-)

tem82 01-16-2013 08:13 PM

Re: DOMbetting system, +20.78% YIELD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Rumblingbelly (Post 12773433)
Very often when odds drop it means nothing

I don't agree. Of course it happens and even I can mention few examples, but definately not very often, like you said. philosophicalarf gave the good explanation of this manipulation, altough if you monitor the odd till its closing (which I recommend) You can prevent from being "on the wrong side". How? Once you notice that odds trend is reversing and there's no value in your bet any more, you simply back off by playing best available opposite odd.
The whole system works and it's not questionable. You just need to put emotions aside and bet flat stake, no matter what , and in a long run You will always win. I bet over 500 matches based on dropping odds system so I know what I'm saying :)

tem82 01-16-2013 08:46 PM

Re: DOMbetting system, +20.78% YIELD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by philosophicalarf (Post 12763338)
I'm limited to basically nothing at approx 150 books :-)

150 ? nice :D But how much time did it take?
I think nobody would mind having his account limited because he won too much money :)
Quote:

Originally Posted by philosophicalarf (Post 12763338)
that leaves me with just pinnacle, SBO and IBC.

Excacly. Most sharp players like you bet at pinnacles (and asian bookies) and this only proves that it's worth monitoring pinnacle odds movenements.

philosophicalarf 01-17-2013 02:47 AM

Re: DOMbetting system, +20.78% YIELD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by tem82 (Post 12790441)
150 ? nice :D But how much time did it take?
I think nobody would mind having his account limited because he won too much money :)

Hrrm, 3 or 4 years maybe? Don't remember.

Unfortunately, betting steam loses you accounts really quickly. Also, tennis is a minor focus for most books so they really don't have much tolerance for losing money on it. You can mix things up with bets on more popular sports, but steam is a bit of a giveaway - most books have automated tools that notice when there is big market movements, and which customer repeatedly leaps on them.

Rumblingbelly 01-17-2013 07:29 AM

Re: DOMbetting system, +20.78% YIELD
 
Had a bet on Harrison/Ebden today partly because odds dropped from 1.95 to 1.65 and suffered a very cruel loss.
Yeah ive noticed the same as philosophicalarf, all the bookies that I use have limited me either completely or I get a very small stake and have to always manually request the bigger stake, some bad bookies always refuse my good odds request, then drop the odds and only then allow me to bet with worse odds. I often feel like im working for the bookies, warning them about which odds contain value and I get nothing from it. Every time I bet they drop the odds either before or after my bet, its hard enough to make good money with betting but to every time having to worry about getting your stake through is so annoying.

Its funny really, I can make any odd drop that I touch, have I been labeled as super dangerous or why do all the odds drop only when I bet on them.
Right now I just dropped expekt odd from 1.50 to 1.45 and ladbrokes 1.50 to 1.45, my small stakes seem to define the whole worlds markets.

tem82 01-17-2013 07:51 PM

Re: DOMbetting system, +20.78% YIELD
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by philosophicalarf (Post 12796281)
Unfortunately, betting steam loses you accounts really quickly.

Again, I cannot agree. At least this is not the case on my example
Quote:

Originally Posted by philosophicalarf (Post 12796281)
Also, tennis is a minor focus for most books so they really don't have much tolerance for losing money on it

Actually I barely bet on tennis but that it's not the point. I think if the book has an automated tool to monitor customers bets against odds movements then it includes all markets, no matter if it's tennis, soccer, snooker or whatever else.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rumblingbelly (Post 12803465)
Had a bet on Harrison/Ebden today partly because odds dropped from 1.95 to 1.65 and suffered a very cruel loss.

Can you please tell me who dropped the odd ? Pinnacle ? I don't see pinnacle's odds here
http://www.oddsportal.com/tennis/aus...7/#home-away;2
And most of all your whole approach seems to be wrong. Of course losses are gonna happen, but you should not worry about single loss so much, because you should be interested only in the long run results. First bet at least 30 matches, sum up your wins and losses and then we can discuss and draw conclusions.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rumblingbelly (Post 12803465)
Right now I just dropped expekt odd from 1.50 to 1.45 and ladbrokes 1.50 to 1.45, my small stakes seem to define the whole worlds markets.

please :D , lets be serious
I think you are simply too late. How do you know there was a drop? How long does it take you to bet after the drop occured?

Rumblingbelly 01-18-2013 04:47 AM

Re: DOMbetting system, +20.78% YIELD
 
Im not disagreeing with the system, this style of betting works no doubt and im well in profit every year, good luck to everybody.

come2papa 11-29-2013 12:53 PM

Re: DOMbetting system, +20.78% YIELD
 
So at one point Pinnacle had odds at 3.2 on Berlocq and Bogomolov while Betway had 1.75 on Bolelli and Bracciali?
Why not just bet on both and take your 13% no risk profit?


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