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-   -   Where will Nadal be ranked at the end of 2012? (http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=209009)

Lopez 08-28-2012 10:22 PM

Where will Nadal be ranked at the end of 2012?
 
This is an interesting thing to consider in my opinion since it may be possible that Nadal will not play much in 2012 anymore.

The current race ranking: http://live-tennis.eu/race

Basically, Murray is 2100 points behind Nadal in the race whereas Ferrer is 2800. Del Potro is about 3500 back. If Nadal does not play during the remaining year, I think that it's very likely that Murray passes him. Andy is bound to collect 2100 points in the remaining tournaments and Ferrer might be close as well, especially if he gets nice draws (being the nr.4 seed) and gets to the semis of big tournaments often. Del Potro is an outsider here IMO. If Nadal is fit to play after the USO, then I don't think there's a chance he falls outside the top 4.

If Nadal were to finish the season as nr. 5, it would mean a very interesting AO draw I think...

What do you guys think: What will Nadal's year end ranking be in 2012?

finishingmove 08-28-2012 10:33 PM

Re: Where will Nadal be ranked at the end of 2012?
 
3-4

EliSter 08-28-2012 10:35 PM

Re: Where will Nadal be ranked at the end of 2012?
 
3.

Ash86 08-28-2012 10:37 PM

Re: Where will Nadal be ranked at the end of 2012?
 
He'll play Beijing, Shanghai and WTF at least I think. Still over a month till Beijing. His team have said there's no plan to miss the rest of the year - he's still entered in Asian tournaments and he may play Davis Cup (I doubt this somehow - if he does it might be the doubles so no points to be gained).

So he won't stay at the points he has (unless he has a really atrocious comeback!). Obviously won't be expected to go too deep but should pick up enough points to hold off Ferrer etc. Think he's not bothered if he's 3 or 4 - as long as he's top 4 he'll only meet his key rivals in SFs or later and can just pick up points next year to rise up again. Going down to 5 is a disadvantage and he'll be aware of that. Think he'll finish 4.

Really quite impressive he's still third in the race having not played the Olympics, 2 MS and a slam - 3750 points up for grabs that he didn't even contest. Also an early exit at Wimby. So third best of the year in September nearly based just on results up to Roland Garros alone. As long as he doesn't decline too much on clay I think he'll be okay ranking wise for a long while to come...

Looner 08-28-2012 10:41 PM

Re: Where will Nadal be ranked at the end of 2012?
 
#3 without a shadow of a doubt. At the very least. He might jump up to #2.

Time Violation 08-28-2012 10:43 PM

Re: Where will Nadal be ranked at the end of 2012?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ash86 (Post 12362084)
Really quite impressive he's still third in the race having not played the Olympics, 2 MS and a slam - 3750 points up for grabs that he didn't even contest. Also an early exit at Wimby. So third best of the year in September nearly based just on results up to Roland Garros alone. As long as he doesn't decline too much on clay I think he'll be okay ranking wise for a long while to come...

You can't include this slam, since it barely started, and even if he were healthy, he wouldn't grab that much from the 2 MS, probably would've skipped at least one of those.

grahampros 08-28-2012 10:44 PM

Re: Where will Nadal be ranked at the end of 2012?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ash86 (Post 12362084)
He'll play Beijing, Shanghai and WTF at least I think. Still over a month till Beijing. His team have said there's no plan to miss the rest of the year - he's still entered in Asian tournaments and he may play Davis Cup (I doubt this somehow - if he does it might be the doubles so no points to be gained).

So he won't stay at the points he has (unless he has a really atrocious comeback!). Obviously won't be expected to go too deep but should pick up enough points to hold off Ferrer etc. Think he's not bothered if he's 3 or 4 - as long as he's top 4 he'll only meet his key rivals in SFs or later and can just pick up points next year to rise up again. Going down to 5 is a disadvantage and he'll be aware of that. Think he'll finish 4.

Really quite impressive he's still third in the race having not played the Olympics, 2 MS and a slam - 3750 points up for grabs that he didn't even contest. Also an early exit at Wimby. So third best of the year in September nearly based just on results up to Roland Garros alone. As long as he doesn't decline too much on clay I think he'll be okay ranking wise for a long while to come...

It really comes down to how well Murray does the rest of the year. Major points will drop off from US. If Murray does well at the US and does relatively well rest of year he's an easy number 3 at least. The point gap is such that before end of year Nadal is unlikely to drop below 4.

Chase Visa 08-28-2012 10:45 PM

Re: Where will Nadal be ranked at the end of 2012?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Looner (Post 12362089)
#3 without a shadow of a doubt. At the very least. He might jump up to #2.

Umm?

He's 2000 points back and has never performed well on indoor hards. Me thinks you're being pessimistic :p

3rd-4th, IMO.

Looner 08-28-2012 10:49 PM

Re: Where will Nadal be ranked at the end of 2012?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chase Visa (Post 12362100)
Umm?

He's 2000 points back and has never performed well on indoor hards. Me thinks you're being pessimistic :p

3rd-4th, IMO.

I never write off Nadal, so much so that some of his "fans" think I am jinxing. If Roger decides to skip a few and underperforms, he might still catch up. #3 is definitely the most realistic scenario of course but you never know in sports :shrug:.

jcempire 08-28-2012 10:50 PM

Re: Where will Nadal be ranked at the end of 2012?
 
No4 or No5

Nadal would be back next year

GSMnadal 08-28-2012 10:55 PM

Re: Where will Nadal be ranked at the end of 2012?
 
#4 seed will win the Australian Open next year.

Roamed 08-28-2012 10:56 PM

Re: Where will Nadal be ranked at the end of 2012?
 
Hopefully top three, if he finished beneath Murray it would be sad.

Ash86 08-28-2012 10:59 PM

Re: Where will Nadal be ranked at the end of 2012?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Taejin (Post 12362097)
You can't include this slam, since it barely started, and even if he were healthy, he wouldn't grab that much from the 2 MS, probably would've skipped at least one of those.

He would have grabbed enough from the 4750 points on offer to maintain his race lead on Murray. Even now, if Murray wins, he still doesn't become third in the race. I'm not talking about real ranking (which Murray would overtake Nadal in) but YTD race ranking - which is what is relevant when looking at the final 2012 ranking. Even without winning any points at the US Open, Cincy, Rogers Cup, Olympics and hardly any on grass when he did play, he'll come out of the US Open being ranked third in the race. This is partly due to Murray doing poorly on clay and some of the Masters Series of course. But still, the fact remains, he got enough points by the end of RG to give himself a comfortable ranking cushion.

Federer in 2 08-28-2012 11:26 PM

Re: Where will Nadal be ranked at the end of 2012?
 
3.

Time Violation 08-28-2012 11:52 PM

Re: Where will Nadal be ranked at the end of 2012?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ash86 (Post 12362134)
He would have grabbed enough from the 4750 points on offer to maintain his race lead on Murray. Even now, if Murray wins, he still doesn't become third in the race. I'm not talking about real ranking (which Murray would overtake Nadal in) but YTD race ranking - which is what is relevant when looking at the final 2012 ranking. Even without winning any points at the US Open, Cincy, Rogers Cup, Olympics and hardly any on grass when he did play, he'll come out of the US Open being ranked third in the race. This is partly due to Murray doing poorly on clay and some of the Masters Series of course. But still, the fact remains, he got enough points by the end of RG to give himself a comfortable ranking cushion.

If Murray wins he will lag like 100 points or so? Anyway, Nadal skipped hard and Murray sucked on clay, so it kinda offsets each other :p


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