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-   -   How much luck has to do with Nole's success? (http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=196242)

latso 01-30-2012 09:12 PM

How much luck has to do with Nole's success?
 
Was just thinking how many times in a row he just lucked it out in mega huge ocasions -

USO semi final 2011
USO semi final 2010
AO semi final 2012 (he was *5-5 15-40 in 5th set)
AO final 2012 (*2-4 15-30, easy passing missed Rafa, 5th set)

In 4 occasions he's just a point away of losing. He plays most these crucial points in a great way, but to be honest this kind of successive crucial points saving doesn't happen to everyone.

No deterioration of Nole's success, just thinking about how one point in all those 4 matches (maybe more than 4, can't remember) could have made his impressive run look totally different.

Some luck indeed here, no?

piksi 01-30-2012 09:22 PM

Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?
 
There is no luck in this sports. You earn everything good or bad. Novak paid his dues. He lost his share of close matches. He just have the steeper learning curve.

Talking about luck, if Nadal was born the same year as Federer, Roger could have been one slam wonder and Nadal could have had 30 GS titles.

blank_frackis 01-30-2012 09:27 PM

Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by piksi (Post 11704834)
There is no luck in this sports. You earn everything good or bad. Novak paid his dues. He lost his share of close matches. He just have the steeper learning curve.

There's plenty of luck in tennis. When it gets down to a single point here or there then the match can go either way. If Nadal puts that easy shot away at 30-15, for instance, there's nothing Djokovic could have done about it.

So yes, I think Djokovic has had a little bit of luck. He could have easily lost these matches and he didn't just win them because of mental strength.

Time Violation 01-30-2012 09:29 PM

Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?
 
Djokovic was also a point from winning in 4... wasted *0-40, wasted 5-3 in TB, if he was really lucky, there wouldn't be a 5th set in the first place :)

hipolymer 01-30-2012 09:29 PM

Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by blank_frackis (Post 11704855)
There's plenty of luck in tennis. When it gets down to a single point here or there then the match can go either way. If Nadal puts that easy shot away at 30-15, for instance, there's nothing Djokovic could have done about it.

So yes, I think Djokovic has had a little bit of luck. He could have easily lost these matches and he didn't just win them because of mental strength.

And if Nadal had missed one of those points on 0-40 in the 4th set we wouldn't have a 5 set final...

damn I got Ninja'd

leng jai 01-30-2012 09:29 PM

Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?
 
No luck, just egg.

Ultravox 01-30-2012 09:29 PM

Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by latso (Post 11704796)
Was just thinking how many times in a row he just lucked it out in mega huge ocasions -

USO semi final 2011
USO semi final 2010
AO semi final 2012 (he was *5-5 15-40 in 5th set)
AO final 2012 (*2-4 15-30, easy passing missed Rafa, 5th set)

In 4 occasions he's just a point away of losing. He plays most these crucial points in a great way, but to be honest this kind of successive crucial points saving doesn't happen to everyone.

No deterioration of Nole's success, just thinking about how one point in all those 4 matches (maybe more than 4, can't remember) could have made his impressive run look totally different.

Some luck indeed here, no?


This is just pathetic.Djokovic wasnt a "lucky" against Rafa, as he did, he would win in 4 sets.He missed three break points with leading 4:3 in fourth set and he was "unlucky" not to win tiebreak, he had a serve and 5:3.Bue,bue:wavey:

samanosuke 01-30-2012 09:32 PM

Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?
 
I am not taking anything from him except that FH in New York :facepalm:

Super Djoker 01-30-2012 09:33 PM

Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by latso (Post 11704796)
Was just thinking how many times in a row he just lucked it out in mega huge ocasions -

USO semi final 2011
USO semi final 2010
AO semi final 2012 (he was *5-5 15-40 in 5th set)
AO final 2012 (*2-4 15-30, easy passing missed Rafa, 5th set)

In 4 occasions he's just a point away of losing. He plays most these crucial points in a great way, but to be honest this kind of successive crucial points saving doesn't happen to everyone.

No deterioration of Nole's success, just thinking about how one point in all those 4 matches (maybe more than 4, can't remember) could have made his impressive run look totally different.

Some luck indeed here, no?

Bitter much?

blank_frackis 01-30-2012 09:34 PM

Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by hipolymer (Post 11704858)
And if Nadal had missed one of those points on 0-40 in the 4th set we wouldn't have a 5 set final...

damn I got Ninja'd

We wouldn't have, but when you get down to 5-5 in the fifth it's often a toss of a coin as to who wins. There's this strange idea that players are in complete control of these situations (as if they have the ability to clip lines at will). In reality, there's a certain degree of circumstance that affects every point and it's unsustainable to keep winning by the odd point here or there.

Super Djoker 01-30-2012 09:36 PM

Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?
 
You don,t beat rafa 7 times by luck 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 ! Maybe nadal,s a Choker ?

latso 01-30-2012 09:37 PM

Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by piksi (Post 11704834)
There is no luck in this sports. You earn everything good or bad. Novak paid his dues. He lost his share of close matches. He just have the steeper learning curve.

Talking about luck, if Nadal was born the same year as Federer, Roger could have been one slam wonder and Nadal could have had 30 GS titles.

If Nadal was born the same year as Federer, we'd still have courts playable for normal tennis and not sand speed and may death tear them apart...

ATP would have done the necessary to have a solid rivalry, so the slam count might have been different, but with 1-2, not more imo.

About the luck, you still need some dose of it in single points playing against absolutely equal to you adversaries.

Remember this full swing return against Roger at the USO? The flawless drive volley, this Rafa passing shot, those consecutive BPs against Murray - statistically you can't make them, it takes a bit of luck imo.

For example there was no such situation involved in his loss to Roger at RG.

So Nole together with being hyper strong mentally in all those moments, kinda had fortuna with him as well.

I realize that you need all the guts and talent, and physical form, and everything, etc. to get there to be in position having this kind of situation first, so it's no bashing or trolling, just i was thinking how close he was losing in both his last matchs at the AO and remembered his USO dramas with Roger, so was interested in others' opinions.

stewietennis 01-30-2012 09:40 PM

Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?
 
He's had the same amount of luck as everyone else who has ever won a major.

latso 01-30-2012 09:43 PM

Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Super Djoker (Post 11704872)
Bitter much?

No, no, at all.

I'm actually happy that Nole is keeping Rafa's slam count down to a number which keeps a certain degree of suspense, coz if Rafa had snatched this one, considering that he has in the range of 3-4 more RGs booked, would have been a sure new Goat, now with Nole beating him around the clock there's still some suspense.

So no, not bitter at all, just noting this rare serie of interesting circumstances.

latso 01-30-2012 09:45 PM

Re: How much luck has to do with Nole's success?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by stewietennis (Post 11704893)
He's had the same amount of luck as everyone else who has ever won a major.

That's way too general.

Even at first sight you can name some absolute beat downs like most of Rafa's RGs, earlier Roger's Wimbies, as well as most his USOs.


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