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Bolar Bolabi 03-14-2010 10:18 AM

Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread
 
Similar to the golf thread, I'll do this thread.

Stage 7 Paris Nice

5 units Contador over Taaramae x Valverde over Sagan @ $2.18 (Sportingbet)

Stage winner:

.5 units Luis Leon Sanchez @ $17

Contador will attack tonight, so will Valverde. Sagan will finally drop like a fly and the big four, Contador, Valverde, Lulu and Sam Sanchez will ride away from the rest of the peloton. Drop Kreuziger and 4 Spanish riders should fill the top 4 in the GC. Maybe Rodriguez can fill the 5th place if he's lucky.

Bolar Bolabi 03-16-2010 07:54 AM

Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread
 
Well that lost.

Anyway

Tireno-Adriatico - Stage 7

4 units Boonen over Freire @ $1.72
2 units Bennati over Farrar @ $1.60
1 unit Bennati to win @ $6.50

Good luck!

Bolar Bolabi 03-16-2010 07:57 AM

Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread
 
The above was no good!

MSR - Got it yesterday and posted it on another forum.

.5 unit Bennati to win MSR @ $20

Bolar Bolabi 03-20-2010 02:56 AM

Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread
 
MSR:

3 units Freire over Farrar @ $1.70
3 units Freire over Davis @ $1.50
.5 unit Freire to win @ $14

Bolar Bolabi 03-20-2010 05:13 PM

Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi (Post 9731564)
MSR:
.5 unit Bennati to win MSR @ $20
3 units Freire over Farrar @ $1.70
3 units Freire over Davis @ $1.50
.5 unit Freire to win @ $14

+9.6

YTD: -2.9

Bolar Bolabi 03-23-2010 01:20 AM

Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread
 
Dwars

Yesterday;

5 units Eeckhout over Veelers @ $1.55 (Unibet)

Good luck!

Bolar Bolabi 03-23-2010 03:32 PM

Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread
 
I have a play for the World Championships with a write-up.

More later today......

Bolar Bolabi 03-24-2010 07:05 AM

Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread
 
2010 UCI Track Cycling World Championships

12 units Australia Under 9.5 medals

I can't see where Australia can get 10 medals from.

Points Race - Toss of a coin. Cam Meyer could defend but he is the only Australian representative in it and being a defending champ, he is a marked man. He's been marked at the Track World Cups in this event. May get a medal. Probability 40%.

Team Sprint - No chance of getting a medal. France, Great Britain and Germany and New Zealand will battle out the medals. Cycling Australia are saying they reckon we're a chance. They are overrating the current Australian sprint team.

Individual Pursuit - We will definately get a medal. Jack Bobridge will get Gold or Silver. He won't miss a medal here unless he gets hit by a car and can't race. So that's one medal. Probability 99%

Keiren - Probability 30%

Scratch - Lottery. We could get a medal, again probability 30%.

Team Pursuit - We should get a medal here. Probability 99%

Kilo - No - Probability 20%.

Sprint - Maybe. Probability 40%

Madison - More than likely. Cam Meyer and Leigh Howard the blokes that will be leading us in the Madison I think. They should get a medal. Probability 70%.

Omnium - Leigh Howard is the defending champion. He might. Probability 50%.

Looking at that, I see that we will definately get two medals with another three a chance. That's 5.

Onto the Women's.

Individual Pursuit - No. Probability 20%

500 TT - Yes, Meares should pick up a medal. Probability 99%.

Team Pursuit - Maybe. Probability 50%.

Sprint - Meares will be fighting out the bronze if she gets that far. Probability 60%

Scratch - Lottery. We may through Belinda Goss, but doubtful. Probability 40%.

Omnium - Don't know. Probability 30%

Keirin - We might through Meares or McCulloch. Probability 60%.

Points - Lottery but probably not. Probability 30%.

I see a definate medal here. With maybe 3 more we might snag if we get lucky. That's 4 all up. I doubt we'll get four medals in the Women. Our team is still too raw. Meares is the only chance and maybe McCulloch. Goss may get a medal again in the scratch race.

Probability of this bet getting up. 85%. The men need to claim at least 7 medals if this bet loses. I can't see that happening. Can you?

If this bet doesn't get up, Australia fluked it somewhere.

On face value, this should get up. I predict we will get 6 medals.

Good luck!

Bolar Bolabi 03-24-2010 01:49 PM

Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread
 
Interestingly enough I'm not the only one on that above bet. The line moved to 8.5 with the under 1.78.

Anyway, trying two of the events on the day 1 programme.

Mens Team Sprint

2 units France @ $2.25 - I think France will edge the Brits in this. I'm getting mixed feelings regarding the Brits. I think the French do this.

Women's Individual Pursuit

5 units Houvenaghel @ $2.20 - She will open the Brits account with a gold.

Women's 500m Time Trial

Meares should get it from the defending champ but I can't justify laying those odds on Meares. Value in the defending champ. This will be a later in the day decision.

wimderon 03-24-2010 05:42 PM

Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread
 
You can add one up to your projected total as you forgot the ladies team sprint in your post.

Bolar Bolabi 03-25-2010 03:12 PM

Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread
 
Yep. Noticed that then. A definate medal.

Anyway, got this earlier on

2 units Bobridge IP @ $2.20 - I can't justify laying $1.70 for Phinney even though he's a class act. Bobridge is sizzling at the moment. Was speaking to someone in the Australia camp who says Bobridge is in fine touch.

Bolar Bolabi 03-25-2010 03:26 PM

Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread
 
I've only got one play on the weekend. I'm leaving the rest to in-play.

E3

1.5 unit Pozzato to win @ $10
3.5 unit Pozzato to place @ $3.25

As I say, Boonen's goals are Flanders and Roubaix. He's doing these races to warm-up. Pozzato is in reasonable form and I think he has a great chance to defend here. At those odds, I'm on him.

Speaking of Flanders, Cancellara will be my bet. The guy is keen to win it. He's more motivated than Boonen. Both Flanders and PR are going to be a battle between Boonen and Cancellara. May the strong man win.

Bolar Bolabi 03-27-2010 08:59 AM

Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread
 
Criterium International - Overall.

7 units Evans to place @ $2.25

I never thought I would say it about Evans but he is a reformed man. He attacks. He's in great form and he is an excellent shot at the Giro if this form stays the way it is. He should be top 3 on tonight's stage and then the guy can time trial.

Stage 1 H2H

5 units Contador @ $1.50 - No one can beat this guy up a mountaintop finish. No one.

Bolar Bolabi 05-06-2010 07:26 AM

Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread
 
Lost all those bets! Let's get this back on track.

Anyway Giro.

7 units Greipel points jersey @ $3.50
5 units Greipel over Petacchi (Points Jersey) @ $1.66
3 units Evans (Pink Jersey) @ $2.50

Bolar Bolabi 05-06-2010 07:29 AM

Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread
 
Some solid H2H's around some places. Stage 1 too. Seems a few good bets are around on the Giro but at this point in time I'm staying with the above and just the above.


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