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Bolar Bolabi 02-16-2008 06:53 AM

Guess the Tour De France odds
 
This event now is the most open it's ever been. No Contador, No Leipheimer and no Kloden. No Vinoukourov. No anyone? So who would the bookies install as favourites?

Valverde? I don't think his spot in the tour is safe either with operation puerto being re-opened. So who deserves the favourite honour? Wheel sucking Cadel?

So let's guess the odds and see how close we were when the odds come out in about a months time.

Evans - $4.50
Valverde - $5
F Schleck - $8
Sastre - $10
Menchov - $10
A Schleck - $10
Moreau - $12
Rogers - $12
Cunego - $12
Simoni - $12
Soler - $15
Casar - $15
Perero - $20
Kirchen - $20
Dekker - $20
Danielson - $50
Gerdemenn - $50
Hincapie - $60

Seriously, if you were a bookie, how the hell would you judge this? Everyone up to Dekker can win this thing. Evans is clearly not a favourite IMO but they will put him as favourite. What price would you put the first 15 riders who can clearly win this? You'd think that CSC and High Road will try and control the race - both teams will have very strong teams but if they don't, someone like Soler can run away with it.

Good luck to the bookies.

Bolar Bolabi 02-28-2008 11:35 AM

Re: Guess the Tour De France odds
 
Here they are

Cadel Evans 3.00

Denis Menchov 7.00

Alejandro Valverde Belmonte 8.00

Carlos Sastre Candil 9.00

Michael Rogers 16.00

Damiano Cunego 17.00

Andy Schleck 21.00

Oscar Pereiro Sio 26.00

Mauricio Soler 26.00

Christophe Moreau 31.00

Yaroslav Popovych 31.00

José Angel Gomez Marchante 31.00

Thomas Dekker 31.00

Vladimir Karpets 31.00

Kim Kirchen 36.00

Haimar Zubeldia Aguirre 36.00

Riccardo Ricco 36.00

Mikel Astarloza Chaurreau 51.00

Frank Schleck 51.00

Linus Gerdemann 51.00

Samuel Sanchez 67.00

George Hincapie 81.00

Juan Manuel Garate 101.00

Stijn Devolder 101.00

Sandy Casar 101.00

Sylvain Chavanel 151.00

Thomas Voeckler 151.00

Bolar Bolabi 02-28-2008 11:36 AM

Re: Guess the Tour De France odds
 
Schleck at $21

Woah

Bolar Bolabi 02-28-2008 11:38 AM

Re: Guess the Tour De France odds
 
This event is more open than the odds suggest. Wheel sucker Cadel that short? Dekker is good odds too.

Don't forget a few things that is happening.

Operation Puerto has been re-opened - Valverde is linked to it.

Rogers is among the T-Mobile 2006 Tour de France team of accusations that he doped.

Might be worth putting something small on some of these long shots because if it goes the way I don't want it to, Rogers and Valverde won't be riding this year and that means odds for Sastre, Menchov and Schleck will come right in.

Ale10 03-02-2008 05:52 AM

Re: Guess the Tour De France odds
 
Betting on Evans at 3.00 is a major mistake imo. First of all, he is not that good, period. Second of all, there could be a big surprise and Astana could get into to TdF, somehow... And then they will come with Contador, Levi and Klodi. I will believe that they won't start if they won't be there at the prologue.

Bolar Bolabi 03-02-2008 05:55 AM

Re: Guess the Tour De France odds
 
Yep

Crazy people will bet on Evans just like crazy people bet on Vino last year for arguments sake.

Evans is the most over-rated cyclist there is - I think he is over-rated by the Australian Media bigtime.

Kolya 03-15-2008 01:25 PM

Re: Guess the Tour De France odds
 
Andy Schleck seems like a good bet but is he going to ride the Giro this year?

Honestly I feel Menchov is going to win.

Evans is good but he isn't that good in the mountains with anyone who can accelerate.

its.like.that 03-16-2008 12:13 AM

Re: Guess the Tour De France odds
 
Hincapie is way under the odds @ 60 imo.

its.like.that 03-16-2008 12:15 AM

Re: Guess the Tour De France odds
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ale10 (Post 6657987)
Betting on Evans at 3.00 is a major mistake imo. First of all, he is not that good, period. Second of all, there could be a big surprise and Astana could get into to TdF, somehow... And then they will come with Contador, Levi and Klodi. I will believe that they won't start if they won't be there at the prologue.

Levi is a useless piece of shit. Forget about him.

its.like.that 03-16-2008 12:16 AM

Re: Guess the Tour De France odds
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi (Post 6658000)
Yep

Crazy people will bet on Evans just like crazy people bet on Vino last year for arguments sake.

Evans is the most over-rated cyclist there is - I think he is over-rated by the Australian Media bigtime.

Bolar, most Aussies have never even heard of Cadel.

:shrug:

its.like.that 03-16-2008 12:17 AM

Re: Guess the Tour De France odds
 
Will Karpets be in the Tour this year?

bad gambler 03-16-2008 01:42 AM

Re: Guess the Tour De France odds
 
Evans is so much better then anyone else in the TT's now that Levi is out.

It depends how much he can limit the damage in the mountains because he has minutes over the rest of the riders on the TT.

bad gambler 03-16-2008 01:43 AM

Re: Guess the Tour De France odds
 
But yeah $3.00 if those are his odds are too short.

sports freak 03-16-2008 03:09 AM

Re: Guess the Tour De France odds
 
Forza Evans,price is abit low for the liking!Maybe its a good sign,somebody knows somethin?

Ale10 03-17-2008 03:21 AM

Re: Guess the Tour De France odds
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sports freak (Post 6727028)
Forza Evans,price is abit low for the liking!Maybe its a good sign,somebody knows somethin?

Bookies are trying to suck in money on Cadel with low odds.


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