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BlueSwan 05-21-2007 12:51 PM

Federer's ranking discussion
 
UPDATED after Rome
After a horrid start to the clay season, Roger finally found some of his form and recorded good wins over the likes of Gulbis, Wawrinka and Ferrer, before succombing to old foe Rafa Nadal in the final. By reaching the final Roger scored some much needed ranking points, although the total for his overall ranking was negative as he was the defending champion. Now Roger needs a semifinal at RG to secure that he equals the Sampras record of most weeks at #1.

Here are the overall ranking points:

Overall 52-week ranking points
1. Roger Federer: 10030 points
2. Rafael Nadal: 6880 points
3. Novak Djokovic: 6405 points

These are the points broken down:
Roger Federer
Points scored in 2010:
Doha (hard) SF: 90
Australian Open (hard) WINNER: 2000
TMS Indian Wells (hard) R32: 45
TMS Miami (hard) R16: 90
TMS Rome (clay) R32: 10
Estoril (clay) SF: 90
TMS Madrid (clay) FINALIST: 600

Points to defend:
Roland Garros (clay) WINNER: 2000
Wimbledon (grass) WINNER: 2000
TMS Canada (hard) QF: 180
TMS Cincinatti (hard) WINNER: 1000
US Open (hard) FINALIST: 1200
Basel (indoor) FINALIST: 300
TMS Paris (indoor) R32: 10
WTF (indoor) SF: 400
Rafael Nadal
Points scored in 2010:
Doha (hard) FINALIST: 150
Australian Open (hard) QF: 360
TMS Indian Wells (hard) SF: 360
TMS Miami (hard) SF: 360
TMS Monte Carlo (clay) WINNER: 1000
TMS Rome (clay) WINNER: 1000
TMS Madrid (clay) WINNER: 1000

Points to defend:
Roland Garros (clay) R16: 180
TMS Canada (hard) QF: 180
TMS Cincinatti (hard) SF: 360
US Open (hard) SF: 720
Beijing (hard) SF: 180
TMS Shanghai (hard) FINALIST: 600
TMS Paris (Indoor) SF: 360
WTF (indoor) RR: 0
Novak Djokovic
Australian Open (hard) QF: 360
Rotterdam (indoor hard) SF: 180 - does not count towards best 5.
Dubai (hard) WINNER: 500
TMS Indian Wells (hard) R16: 90
TMS Miami (hard) R64: 10
TMS Monte Carlo (clay) SF: 360
TMS Rome (clay) QF: 180
Belgrade (clay) QF: 45

Points to defend:
Roland Garros (clay) R32: 90
Halle (grass) FINALIST: 150
Wimbledon (grass) QF: 360
TMS Canada (hard) QF: 180
TMS Cincinatti (hard) FINALIST: 600
US Open (hard) SF: 720
Beijing (hard) WINNER: 500
TMS Shanghai (hard) SF: 360
Basel (Indoor) WINNER: 500
TMS Paris (Indoor) WINNER: 1000
WTF (indoor) RR: 400

SUKTUEN 05-21-2007 02:27 PM

Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1
 
is that only for his ranking?

CmonAussie 05-21-2007 05:11 PM

Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueSwan (Post 5391344)
Right. In this thread Ill regularly update Rogers ranking points and compare them with his nearest rival (Nadal for the foreseeable future), to assess whether his #1 ranking is in jeopardy.

Currently the score is:

Roger Federer: 7515 points
Rafael Nadal: 5225 points

This gives Federer a solid 2290 point lead. However, Nadal has infact so far scored more points than Federer in 2007.

Rogers points scored in 2007:
Australian Open (hard) WINNER: 1000
Dubai (hard) WINNER: 300
TMS Indian Wells (hard) R64: 5
TMS Miami (hard) R16: 75

TMS Monte Carlo (clay) FINALIST: 350
TMS Rome (clay) R16: 75
TMS Hamburg (clay) WINNER: 500


These are the points that Roger has to defend for the remainder of the year:

Roland Garros (clay) FINALIST: 700
Halle (grass) WINNER: 225
Wimbledon (grass) WINNER: 1000

TMS Toronto (hard) WINNER: 500
TMS Cincinnatti (hard) R32: 35
US Open (hard) WINNER: 1000

Tokyo (indoor hard) WINNER: 250
TMS Madrid (indoor carpet) WINNER: 500
Basel (indoor hard) WINNER: 250
Tennis Masters Cup (indoor hard) WINNER: 750


Where does that leave Roger in the fight to keep the #1 ranking?

Well, here are the stats for 2007 alone:

Rogers total for 2007: 2255 points
Nadals total for 2007: 2675 points


Roger started the year out in peak form and swept the competition away in the Australian Open. However, since then his form has been shaky. He lost a lot of points by going out early in Indian Wells and Miami two TMS tournaments that he usually wins. This has put Nadal ahead for the year by 420 points.

But can Nadal hang on to the lead to take the #1 spot away from Roger before the end of the year? If Roger can avoid a bad result at RG, he should still have all the cards on his hands with the grass, fast US hardcourt season and indoor seasons coming up. However, Nadal will do better after wimbledon than he did last year, especially seeing as he is planning to play more clay tournaments in the summer.

Speaking purely hypothetically, Federer could lose his ranking as early as after Wimbledon. However that would require Federer to lose first round in RG, Halle and Wimbledon, as well as Nadal winning RG, Queens and Wimbledon.

I believe the most realistic scenario is that Federer will retain the #1 ranking throughout the year, but that it's gonna be much much closer than last year.


:wavey:
The fact that Rafa Nadal has more points so far in 2007 is reason for concern:eek:
...
However with FED`s emphatic Hamburg victory it looks like he`s in good shape for the fight:cool:

>>>
This year I expect a close race for #1 coming down to TMC Shanghai;)

R.Federer 05-21-2007 06:45 PM

Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1
 
It's still clay season, and that is Nadal's big strong point. There is no surprise that he has amassed a huge point buildup here. I defer judgement on Roger's "situation" until Halle + Wimbledon + a few summer tuneups are out of the way.
GO ROGER!!!!

stebs 05-21-2007 06:51 PM

Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1
 
Lets assume Nadal takes down RG and Fed comes runner up. That would give Nadal a 720 point lead going in to Federer's half of the year. My own personal opinion is that won't be enough for Nadal. I don't see Nadal reaching the final of Wimbledon but I see Federer winning it. That would probably put the two about even going in to the hardcourt season. Maybe Nadal can keep pace in the AMS events and so forth but the USO certianly favours Roger. Then comes indoor season and TMC all of which I trust Roger will get big results in, especially if his #1 status requires it.

What I'm saying is that Fed is still favourite for the race. If he fails to reach the finals of RG then Nadal will have serious and big chances.

Marek. 05-21-2007 11:37 PM

Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1
 
I don't think he will lose the number one ranking this year but by the end of the year his lead will be around 1200 points.

R.Federer 05-21-2007 11:45 PM

Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by stebs (Post 5393695)
What I'm saying is that Fed is still favourite for the race. If he fails to reach the finals of RG then Nadal will have serious and big chances.

This depends on how Nadal does, though.

If Federer fails to reach the RG finals but wins Wimbledon and Nadal the reverse, then anything can happen in the hardcourt season. No one predicted that Federer would flunk the IW/M run so poorly, and this can happen to Nadal, it can happen to Federer, or both, in the summer swing. It is really not possible to say anything right now.

CmonAussie 05-22-2007 11:51 AM

Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by R.Federer (Post 5394767)
This depends on how Nadal does, though.

If Federer fails to reach the RG finals but wins Wimbledon and Nadal the reverse, then anything can happen in the hardcourt season. No one predicted that Federer would flunk the IW/M run so poorly, and this can happen to Nadal, it can happen to Federer, or both, in the summer swing. It is really not possible to say anything right now.


:wavey:
Exactly agree with you mate;)
...
The fact that Nadal already has the lead in the ATP points RACE should be of concern to FED-> just as well he won Hamburg;)
...
Here`s a bad scenario:

What if~~ NADAL wins FO again & FED shockingly loses early:eek:
*
In that case Rafa would carry a nearly a 1500 year to date lead in the points:eek:
>>> Then FED would certainly have his work cut out for him trying to finish #1 for the 4th straight year!!!


Of course I don`t expect FED to lose early at FO but it`s possible if he has a bad day [eg. Volandri] &/or a harsh draw:(

FED needs to stay healthy too, he can`t afford to get injured and miss a Slam;)

In 1999 Agassi finished the year ranked #1 but he was lucky because Sampras injured himself just before USO~~> then Andre had a fairly easy path!!

BlueSwan 05-22-2007 12:04 PM

Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1
 
I'll update this later to also include a run-through of Nadals points.

t0x 05-22-2007 01:28 PM

Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1
 
I cant see Nadal putting up enough points the second half of the season for a real fight. Last year he complained of being tired after his great run off form, I think the same is probably going to happen this year.

SUKTUEN 05-22-2007 01:31 PM

Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1
 
Nadal is always want to take Roger's NO.1!!!
Roger you need to Keep it!!

Keep it for 7 Years!! OK?

CmonAussie 05-22-2007 02:48 PM

Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by t0x (Post 5396626)
I cant see Nadal putting up enough points the second half of the season for a real fight. Last year he complained of being tired after his great run off form, I think the same is probably going to happen this year.


Based on Nadal`s hardcourt form at Indian Wells TMS this year-->> where he crushed both Roddick & Djokovic, then it looks like he`s becoming a better all-court player;)

***Expect RAFA to push FED harder for the #1 ranking this year than in previous years;)

Seriously wouldn`t be surprised if #1 is decided at Shanghai TMC~~ thankfully played on a very fast indoor court:cool:

t0x 05-22-2007 04:39 PM

Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by CmonAussie (Post 5397040)
Based on Nadal`s hardcourt form at Indian Wells TMS this year-->> where he crushed both Roddick & Djokovic, then it looks like he`s becoming a better all-court player;)

***Expect RAFA to push FED harder for the #1 ranking this year than in previous years;)

Seriously wouldn`t be surprised if #1 is decided at Shanghai TMC~~ thankfully played on a very fast indoor court:cool:

Whilst I agree Rafa is definatley improving on HC, I think his game is too physical to dominate the tour the way Roger does.

I absolutley agree on it being tougher to hold the Number 1 spot this year though... regardless of how the rest of the season pans out, IW & Miami are worth lots of points and they're gone now.

Wimbledon I think is the key... if Rafa is to have a chance he HAS to defend the majority of his points there. An early exit and I'll be confident of Fed's chances (providing he plays a good RG and Wimbledon himself!)

lunahielo 05-22-2007 05:47 PM

Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1
 
Thanks for this info, BlueSwan~~ :)

Marek. 05-23-2007 01:07 AM

Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by CmonAussie (Post 5397040)
Based on Nadal`s hardcourt form at Indian Wells TMS this year-->> where he crushed both Roddick & Djokovic, then it looks like he`s becoming a better all-court player;)

***Expect RAFA to push FED harder for the #1 ranking this year than in previous years;)

Seriously wouldn`t be surprised if #1 is decided at Shanghai TMC~~ thankfully played on a very fast indoor court:cool:

Nadal played well at IW last year by not losing a set until the semifnals, where he lost to Blake. The courts at IW and Miami suit his game a lot better than the ones during summer because they are slower and he has time to set up his forehand. If he gets good draws this summer and avoids the big hitters, he can gain some points but I don't expect that to happen.

I also don't think he will be in the Wimbledon final again, unless he gets a draw like last year.


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