Win Adv. - Distance
Ground Conditions
Class
Trainer Course Chase Record
Win Disadv. - Weight
With the trainers other horse Quartz Du Montceau out along with Hobb's Dream, gives Portrait Royale an excellent chance. The trainer has a 30% chase win record at Plumpton & as long as the extra weight isn't to much of a burden over 3 & a 1/4 miles in what is a weak race, should have a really good chance. Portrait Royale 3.65 to back.
Congratulations to Big Bucks & What A Friend, the Nicholls/Walsh
winning combination goes on & on.
Todays win & place selection.
16:10 TAUNTON H'CAP CHASE 2M 3F Good was GS
LOCAL PRESENT 7.6 BACK | 2.54 E/WAY (3 PLACES)
Win & Place Adv. - Distance
Ground Conditions
Horse Recent Form
Win & Place Disadv. - Trainer Course Chase Form
In what is a reasonably competitive race I think Local Present has
good place changes & expect the race to be fought between the chosen
horse & Mon Chevalier & Omme Antique. Local Present reasonable value to back at 7.6 & e/way at 2.54
Win & Place Adv. - Ground Conditions
Distance
Class
Win & Place Disadv. - Trainer Course Chase Record
With only about six horses with a realistic chance of winning, I think Albertas Run offers good e/way value. I think the race will be contested between Albertas Run, Kalahari King & Poquelin. Albertas Run 9.6 to back & 3.2 e/way.
TRIGGER THE LIGHT 7.8 BACK | 2.40 E/WAY (3 PLACES)
Win & Place Adv. - Ground
Class
Trainer Recent Form
Win & Place Disadv. - Weight
I think this engery sapping race will be contested between Trigger the Light
& Ballygalley Bob. So the value bet lies with our selection. Trigger the Light 7.8 to back & 2.40 e/way.
Today win only & not my most original selection ever.
16:00 AYR H'CAP HURDLE CLASS 2 3M GOOD
DOUBLE HIT 4.1 BACK (WIN ONLY)
Win Adv. - Weight
Trainer Course Hurdle Record
Course Characteristics
Win Disadv. - Class
I expect Double Hit to repeat the recent Newbury win off the same
mark & with the jockey weight allowance. The course characteristics
are exactly the same at Ayr & with the trainer's course record, looks
a good value bet. Caroles Legacy has a chance & should be in the place market
with possibly Pakanoket. Double Hit 4.1 to back.
In what is a short field over 17f, I think Tempting Paradise has an
excellent chance despite being top weight. She's Humble & Croon
could feature in the place market. Tempting Paradise 4.2 to back.
I think Crazy Bold has the best chance & comes out top on my
ratings. My main concern is the extra weight, although it's only
over 2m. I expect Jenny Potts & Weststern to fight for the place market. Crazy Bold 4.5 to back.
I think Bollin Greta offers reasonable value & comes out top in my
ratings. Should be a close run thing between Bollin Greta & Abayaan. Bollin Greta 4.1 to back.
Win & Place Adv. - Distance
Ground Conditions
Weight
Trainer Recent Form
Win & Place Disadv. - Class
Trainer Course Form
I think our chosen horse Rosbay has good each way claims in what
is a competitve race, with about six horses capable of winning. Rosbay good value to back at 10.0 & 3.05 e/way.
Win Adv. - Weight
Ground Conditions
Trainer 3yo Course Record
Win Disadv. - Distance
I think with Beat The Rush now out of the race, this gives Monkton Vale a good chance. Judiciary is unknown over the distance & Dancing Dude is carrying a bit of weight. Monkton Vale
reasonable value to back at 4.2.
Win Adv. - Ground Conditions
Distance
Horse Recent Form
Win Adv. - Weight
Trainer Course Form
I think Finbin & Overton lad have a similar chance of winning
& the value lies with Finbin. The main concern with our chosen
horse is the weight over a stamina testing distance. Finbin 3.4 to back.
Win & Place Adv. - Distance
Ground Conditions
Course Characteristics
Win & Place Disadv. - Class
With rain getting into the ground in the north east of England, this should play more favourably into Crystal Feather's hands & I expect good place claims, along with top weight Visions Of Johanna. Crystal Feather 8.4 to back & 2.66 e/way.
16:40 HAMILTON CLASS 5 H'CAP 1M 5F GF/Good in Places
BIRKSIDE 9.2 BACK (WIN ONLY)
Win Adv. - Distance
Ground Conditions
Weight
Win Disadv. - Trainer Course Record
I think Birkside has a reasonble chance back at a favourable distance & ground conditions to suit. Should be in
the running along with Lady Eclair from the Johnston yard. Birkside 9.2 to back.
In what is a tricky race with the weights, I think Babycakes is handicapped better & should have a good chance along with Sea Of Heartbreak. Babycakes 5.7 to back.
Todays win only selection & a bit of an outsider punt.
NOTTINGHAM 16:00 CLASS 3 H'CAP 1M GS/Soft
COUNT BERTONI 30.0 BACK (WIN ONLY)
Win Adv. - Distance
Ground Conditions
Weight
Trainer Course Record For 3yo's
Win Disadv. - Class
With a previous course win at the same distance & ground conditions to suit & the trainers superb course record, I think Count Bertoni odds are more than generous & should be about 12/1 . Count Bertoni 30.0 to back.
Win & Place Adv. - Distance
Ground Conditions
Course Record For Horse
Win & Place Disadv. - Trainer Overall Chase Record
Toulouse Express the most experienced horse in the race & excellent course record has good place claims along with another with a good course record General Hardi & the competitive Nile Moon. Toulouse Express good value to back at 9.6 & e/way 2.84.
Win & Place Adv. - Distance
Ground Conditions
Weight
Win & Place Disadv. - Class
I think Templetuohy Max has good place claims & should be in the running with the clear favourite Charlie Cool. Templetuohy Max 7.8 to back & 2.55 e/wach way.
Win Adv. - Distance
Class
Trainer Course Record 4yo+
Win Disadv. - Weight
I think with the distance, class & the trainers 43% win record for 4yo's, Danehillsundance stands a good chance of winnng. Reasonable value to back at 3.35.
16:25 MARKET RASEN H'CAP CHASE CLASS 3 2M 6F GF/Good in Places
CHORIZO 5.2 BACK (WIN ONLY)
Win Adv. - Distance
Ground Conditions
Weight
Win Disadv. - Class
I think Chorizo stands a reasonable chance of winning & should be in a battle along with Tempsford & McCoy on board. Chorizo reasonable value to back at 5.2 .
I think Ripalong Lad has a good chance over a distance that is comfortable and weather to suit & scores the most points. Public Esteem & Winsley Hill are the other two contenders in what is quite a good race.
Misamon scored the most points in our selection criteria just ahead of Rince Donn & as long as no more rain gets into the ground, is a reasonable value selection. Misamon 3.95 to back.
Mark
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