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How much luck has to do with Nole's success?

6K views 103 replies 59 participants last post by  indianabones 
#1 ·
Was just thinking how many times in a row he just lucked it out in mega huge ocasions -

USO semi final 2011
USO semi final 2010
AO semi final 2012 (he was *5-5 15-40 in 5th set)
AO final 2012 (*2-4 15-30, easy passing missed Rafa, 5th set)

In 4 occasions he's just a point away of losing. He plays most these crucial points in a great way, but to be honest this kind of successive crucial points saving doesn't happen to everyone.

No deterioration of Nole's success, just thinking about how one point in all those 4 matches (maybe more than 4, can't remember) could have made his impressive run look totally different.

Some luck indeed here, no?
 
#44 ·
Lets assume it takes and average of 100 points to win a GS match. Since (and including) the US Open 2010, Nole has won 38 GS matches. That's 3800 points.

You have pointed out 4 times in which he was lucky, that's 4 points.

4/3800 = 0.10526 %

so he's about 0.10526 % lucky, and 99.89474 % skill
 
#48 ·
Thank God tennis has noting to do with all the above.

It would be even more boring than F1 :rolleyes:

As i said, Nole's success was meant to be regardless those shots made or missed. It's nowhere near a fluke, so there isn't even base to speculate if he'd have wound up that much self esteem and confidence if he was to miss one of those shots, so it's far from based on luck, that's clear.

p.s. you can't calculate "exact" numbers based on "let's assume"
 
#51 ·
Yes, absoluetly, i agree with you.

I just kinda winded up answering more than just your post at once :)

But this is clear, Nole showed nerves of steel and rock solid mental strength.

He's been actually acting in most those situations with a humble kind of "nothing to lose" relaxed way, despite in 3/4 of them he was actually the man to beat. The position in which many have micro choked and lost matches.

To achieve this state of mind in his position is absolutely phenomenal in my opinion.

This is what he has more than Murray imo - the ability to perfectly deal with pressure.
 
#52 ·
Disagreed.

It is an unique situation, which hasn't happened to anyone in the last 10 years (if ever) in tennis.

That's why i believe it has its place on a board where much, much less interesting subjects are often discussed.


I'm not asking "would Federe be such goat if he had broken his ankle at age 15.." which is the kind of blind idiotic post you're reffering to.

Mine is based on an unique serrie of events.
 
#58 ·
"Luck" is a factor that adds to any players' big achievements. All of the greats of the past have had their share of "luck", and their share of "mishaps" just the same, Djokovic is/will be no exception.

Woulda-coulda-shoulda is irrelevant.

The only times I feel like a "(un)lucky" discussion is appropriate are those cases when players truly get hit by a debilitating injury/disease. Muster, Kuerten, Ferrero, Haas, Hewitt, and more recently, DelPotro and Söderling come to mind.
 
#65 ·
Hard to tell, but really this has nothing to do with Novak, luck is part of everything, in private life, in bussiness in sport, even in slam final there is always some luck for either one or another party. So this is not only about Nole, everybody had some luck, we can the same said about Roger or Rafa in past- luck decides many times many matches either between them or other matches, Roger had MP in few matches he lost so really if he would be luckier who knows. So luck is normal thing nothing special only for tennis.
 
#71 ·
+1

What a stupid thread.

All this talk of "being a couple of points away on so many occasions," dropping behind and then coming back to win it - you could apply that to any player and call them 'lucky.'

The only reason we are talking about Djokovic is because he's the world number one.
 
#72 ·
Luck is when a fat person wins the lottery.

This thread is lucky too, in that it hasn't been removed for trolling.
 
#74 ·
Rather you trolls are lucky not being removed from the genuine thread.

Because if you're lazy not to read at least a couple posts in a thread, you have no right to judge.

Of course this would be understandable for intelligent ppl only, sorry.
 
#76 ·
Luck is very important in tennis competition, and I think many people don't accept it because they like thinking of life "you always get what you deserve" ... it's more comfortable thinking like that, that it's always fair in the end.

All of the players benefit from luck.

As a Fedfan, I can say that Federer had a lot a lot of luck in his carreer, even more than others especially because as a one-hander, sometimes missed shots or half-missed shots like returns just behind the net ... become very hard to deal for the opponent.

It happened to him very often.

And he knows it.

People have often said that Fed was a sore loser during interviews because he spoke about luck about his opponent who won.

But if you want to be fair, if you read his interviews regularly as I do, he very often says "I was lucky" when he wins as well.

Personally I like that he's the player who speaks most about luck in tennis ... because I think it's a real face of tennis : luck is very important (I also accept thinking about it more in life than most of the people).

Something else people don't understand about him is his "positive attitude" : "it was OK, I played well" and so on ... that's his way to stay optimistic and positive and keep energy for the future. Many people laugh about autosuggestion method (we call that "method of doctor Coué" in France) but it has been proved by many many studies that it IS really very effective.

When people think of young Federer often being negative on court then working with a psychologist and becoming what he has become, I think they should understand that this autosuggestion method played a big role in his success.

"Confidence" which is often used in tennis, and which has often been said as the main key of Djokovic's success last year is just another way to create autosuggestion ... and when Djokovic hit that shot on match point, I do think that he did believe in himself a lot, it was not the shot of someone who had accepted his loss as some said, and as Fed seemingly said : he badly wanted to win and hit that shot full of this willingness.

However, this shot not only implied a great deal of autosuggestion, it also implied a great deal of luck too.

Because yes, luck is very important in competitive tennis. Also with the draws and so on because match-ups are also very important in tennis ...
 
#82 ·
There is luck all over the place in tennis.

Draws, let cords, bad line calls, injuries, schedule, weather, crowd, inconsistent umpiring, strength of peers, 'stretching the rules' (coach umpiring, time between points), even the toss!
 
#83 ·
I get your point and it's cool but this is life. it's what players have to deal with on a regular basis. I still wouldn't call it luck. many guys here call that shot at the USO (Nole vs. Fed) lucky. whatever. Novak simply played better and won.
 
#88 ·
nadal 100% choked in the 5th at the AO

he had a break up, and he missed a sitter- biggest choke in the last few years

mentally he's completley lost in vs nole

i know we can all smile at the irony on display considering whats happened in the past

but i still feel bad for rafa- he tries really hard
 
#93 ·
Was just thinking how many times in a row he just lucked it out in mega huge ocasions -

USO semi final 2011
USO semi final 2010
AO semi final 2012 (he was *5-5 15-40 in 5th set)
AO final 2012 (*2-4 15-30, easy passing missed Rafa, 5th set)

In 4 occasions he's just a point away of losing. He plays most these crucial points in a great way, but to be honest this kind of successive crucial points saving doesn't happen to everyone.

No deterioration of Nole's success, just thinking about how one point in all those 4 matches (maybe more than 4, can't remember) could have made his impressive run look totally different.
ain
Some luck indeed here, no?
In all these occasions you can say that Novak had luck ag Federer in USO semi 2011 - yet again he read Fed's serve perfectly and later Federer choked. In USo semi 2010 he served to stay in match so all was in his hands. This year AO he was never point away of losing - Murray still had to convert break points and serve it out - maybe Novak choked here cause he was serving for the match at 5-3 and with that Rafa's easy miss he still needed to win next point only to be 5:3 up.

Again in several occasions he was 'unlucky' (or choked if you want) like in USO final 2007 when he had several set points to win first 2 sets, last RG SF when he netted easy forehand winner to come back in 4th set TB or Bejing Olympics when he missed easy smash and in numerous other matches when gifted (choked) his victory to inferior ('lucky') opponent.

I cannot count anymore but as someone said his 'luck' is deserved and evened with 'luck' his opponents had against him.
 
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