Mens Tennis Forums banner

Will Djokovic lose #1 position next year (2013) and when

When will Djokovic lose the number 1 position next year (2013)?

13K views 166 replies 68 participants last post by  rutinos harcos 
#1 · (Edited)
#4 ·
Hopefully, as soon as possible. I can't stand seeing that garbage at #1. That Djokovic name right beside the number '1' really is an eyesore of epic proportions.
 
#8 ·
It`s a very big chance he will be #1 at least Toronto. Nadal won`t be able to overcome him in 1st half of the year, Fed - only taking AO, even then it`s not compulsory happening. Murray after RG is the only another real variant I guess, but I don`t think it will happen for real.

My vote actually would be - after US, but, IMO, there is very big chance Novak to be #1 for whole year if Nadal doesn`t return to his level.
 
#10 ·
I think he'll fail to defend Australia and then I doubt he'll make Roland Garros final again. I can see either Federer or Murray having a blitz in the beginning of the season and taking the #1 spot

I wish I could see Nadal doing it but truthfully if he comes back to good form he won't have any chance at getting to the top until the American hard court summer with the hope that he is more successful than usual

but alas, yes, he'll probably lose it
 
#13 ·
I think he'll fail to defend Australia and then I doubt he'll make Roland Garros final again. I can see either Federer or Murray having a blitz in the beginning of the season and taking the #1 spot

I wish I could see Nadal doing it but truthfully if he comes back to good form he won't have any chance at getting to the top until the American hard court summer with the hope that he is more successful than usual

but alas, yes, he'll probably lose it
No shit.Watch No1e roars after his 4th AO and his 1st RG title.:wavey:
 
#11 ·
There is a slight chance he'll lose it 2023.
 
#19 ·
I think his chances for No.1 for whole year consecutive are bigger than year ago, i mean after 2011 2/3 of the year he had fantastic and was only defending points.

In 2013 i can see him easily hold in 1st half of the year, even if he will be worse than this year, i think he should be consistent enough to make SF,F at most events. Nadal has virtually no chance to get No.1 in 1st half, because he is just defending and is far far behind total points wise.

Roger had great 1st half of 2012 and honestly he did it, was No.1 again, but i don´t see him again to make it

I would say biggest competition for Nole could be Murray, but at the moment he is also ,,far to behind,, point wise and we all know his clay season won´t be nothing special, so his chance can come in 2nd half of the year if he can win more big HC titles than Nole

My bet for whole 2013 is Nole to be No.1 for every week in the calendar year
2nd most likely scenario is Murray having great year and be No.1 at some point in 2nd half of the year
3rd scenario would be Nadal playing out of his mind defending in 1st half everything-or a lot and than have good 2nd part of the year

But 1st scenario is most likely if Nole will be healthy - i mean Murray always will be limited on clay - so will loose some points there and well Nadal is not better on HC than Andy or Nole- Roger won´t go for another No.1 attack for sure
 
#22 ·
When he retires.
 
#30 ·
i sense we'll have a similar thread for 2014.
 
#35 ·
You really can't say anything about this. Nadal probably won't take it, unless he immediately shows form and wins the AO. Judging by Federer's post-Wimbledon season he seems not to have the weapons to dominate 2013, but then again you never know, we've been saying this for 3 years :shrug:. So, it'll probably depend on Murray's form and possible final breakthrough, and Djokovic's retaining his own form.
 
#37 ·
All the Top 4 players all have a lot of points to defend early in the year so the only way is for Djokovic to be ousted in the early rounds of the AO, Miami and Indian Wells; as well as the other three maintaining their results from last year. The other way is if Nadal is injured during the clay season and somehow Federer or Murray win those tournaments. Both scenarios are unlikely but are probably the only conceivable ways that Djokovic relinquishes the No.1 spot.
 
#49 ·
I don't understand how anybody voted for the first option: right after the AO. :confused:

The only way Nole could lose the #1 right after the AO is if Roger wins the tournament AND Nole gets knocked out before the semis. How likely is that? Nole has made the semis in the last 10 Grand Slams he's played. It's not reasonable to think he'll lose before the semis in Australia, his favourite Grand Slam. It may happen, but it's unlikely.

If Nole loses in the semis in Australia, Dubai, Indian Wells and Miami, he'll lose 1920 points, even if Andy wins all of those tournaments, or Rafa does, or Roger does, together with Rotterdam (given that he's not playing Miami), they still won't pass him. So I think it's safe to say that Nole will keep the #1 at least until the clay season.

If Nole keeps losing in the semis in Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros, he'll lose another 960 points. Then he could be in trouble, but Roger would have to match his beginning of 2012 to pass Nole, and Andy would have to improve his results of 2012 dramatically: like winning Australia, Dubai and Miami and making the semis in Indian Wells, say. Rafa couldn't pass him either, he defends 2000 points and is 6000 points behind Nole.

So even assuming this poor performance by Nole, it doesn't look as if he could lose the #1 before RG.

I think the earliest he could lose it would be after Wimbledon.

But I don't think he will. I think he'll remain #1 all through the year. He's already defended the year-end #1, 2012 was not as good as 2011, so it'll be easier to defend the points, he's learned to deal with the commitments of being #1, there'll be less pressure on him: the pressure will be on Murray, to see whether he can win another grand slam title...All in all, I think 2013 will be an easier year for Nole than 2012.

At least I hope so. :)
 
#51 ·
OK...So maybe you don't understand how rankings work.

If Murray wins the AO title, he'll add 1280 points to his total, because last year he earned 720 by virtue of his semifinal appearance. So he drops 720, gains 2000 for a net gain of 1280. Let's assume he defends his Brisbane title. So Murray would have, after AO 8000+1280=9280 points.

Now let's assume that Nole loses in the first round, better still, doesn't play the AO for whatever reason. Then he'll lose the 2000 points he won last year. Then he would have 12920-2000=10920 points.

So even in this situation, with Murray winning Brisbane and AO and Nole not playing at all, Murray would have 9280 points and Nole 10920 points at the end.

Not enough for Nole to lose his #1.

The thing is, Nole earned 4920 points more than Andy in 2012. It's a huge lead. Andy could pass Nole in 2013, of course, but it will take time. 4920 points is a lot of points to overcome.
 
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top