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Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

49K views 533 replies 230 participants last post by  Sunflowerseed 
#1 · (Edited by Moderator)
No i am not looking for young sex partners.

I just noticed that the youngest top 100 (Del Potro and Cilic) are already 20yrs and 7 months.
It never happened that the youngest top 100 player was so "old" (since the ranking exists).

Nishikori (19yo and 4 months) was the only teenager in top 100 until 2 weeks ago. He is now 118th and the highest ranked teenager. Young (162th) and Klein (188th) are the two other ones in top 200.

I also found out that average age of top 100 players is the oldest since at least 1994 (about 26,5yo.):



How would you interpet that ?
 
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#325 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

2015
Quinzi ITA 19y ATP-25
Coric CRO 19y ATP-45
Kokkinakis AUS 19y ATP-75
Halys FRA 19y ATP-95
Zverev GER 18y ATP-122
Garin CHI 19y ATP-135
Chung KOR 19y ATP-155
Ymer SWE 19y ATP-177
Mmoh USA 17y ATP-180
Kozlov USA 17y ATP-195
Luz BRA 17y ATP-220
Lee KOR 17y ATP-240
 
#327 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

I think it has something to do with the evolution of the Junior tour. The juniors who get into the senior tour at a younger age are the one's who become top players nowadays. Someone who sticks to juniors until they're 18, with no futures experience, won't be able to develop into a top 250 player in 1 year. Kokkinakis, Quinzi, Zverev, Garin, and probably a few others who I haven't mentioned, will be in the top 250 as teenagers.

That being said, someone like Yuki Bhambri, who was top 500 as a 16 year old, never made the transition
 
#332 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

I think it has something to do with the evolution of the Junior tour. The juniors who get into the senior tour at a younger age are the one's who become top players nowadays. Someone who sticks to juniors until they're 18, with no futures experience, won't be able to develop into a top 250 player in 1 year. Kokkinakis, Quinzi, Zverev, Garin, and probably a few others who I haven't mentioned, will be in the top 250 as teenagers.

That being said, someone like Yuki Bhambri, who was top 500 as a 16 year old, never made the transition
Tomic did both.

and in the 1993 generation, most of the best of that generation have played senior tournaments for long.

It may be truer for the 1994 and maybe soon 1995 generation who have played less senior tournaments (for instance Peliwo is an extreme case).

One point which concerns me is the number of long-term injuries promising youngsters have had in recent years : Krajinovic, Carreno-Busta, Kubler, Jeong Suk-Yong, I think Fernandes as well, Christian Harrison also was hampered by that at a very young age ...
 
#328 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

Someone like Nikola Milojevic who is now "the number one junior" but hasn't touched the senior tour is going to spend his career as a 19 year old getting wildcards into futures, and scrapping up points. It's hard to get the ball rolling, because of the draws in futures, most top juniors can beat most future players, but there are some good ones in there.
 
#329 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

Someone like Nikola Milojevic who is now "the number one junior" but hasn't touched the senior tour is going to spend his career as a 19 year old getting wildcards into futures, and scrapping up points. It's hard to get the ball rolling, because of the draws in futures, most top juniors can beat most future players, but there are some good ones in there.
Yup, Nikola said in his last interview he doesn't want to join senior tour before he's sure he can make some waves, i.e. not join just for joining sake. Not sure whether that approach is the right one though :)
 
#339 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

I think tennis having become so physical is the reason why there are no teens in top 250. A good example on physicality's effect is that WTA is less physical and has more young players in top than ATP.
 
#340 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

I think its a combination of

1) Tennis being more endurance-based

2) A lot of 30-something players are not retiring and sticking around picking up points

3) This crop of teenage players is just kinda bad
 
#341 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

I think its a combination of

1) Tennis being more endurance-based

2) A lot of 30-something players are not retiring and sticking around picking up points

3) This crop of teenage players is just kinda bad
yeah something like that.

adding to 2)

medical science is much better these days and many players are much more responsible with training, diet, rest and smart scheduling. That means the decline can be pushed forward many years for most players
 
#344 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

But Murray for me is an example which goes against your point Burrow, he was a guy who had to mature physically before he could compete with the big guys. It wasn't just about training it was also about growing into his body.

Another point I'd make is that increasing long rallies gives less explosive, more tactical (experienced) players an advantage. The young guys aren't competing well with the oldies, for whatever reason. I do agree with Burrow though that this generation should be working a lot harder to improve, I get the impression that many have been lazy and just expected to turn up and win futures and challengers immediately. Truth is, the ATP lower leagues are really tough to graduate from. It takes a ton of work/hard graft
 
#345 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

But Murray for me is an example which goes against your point Burrow, he was a guy who had to mature physically before he could compete with the big guys. It wasn't just about training it was also about growing into his body.

Another point I'd make is that increasing long rallies gives less explosive, more tactical (experienced) players an advantage. The young guys aren't competing well with the oldies, for whatever reason. I do agree with Burrow though that this generation should be working a lot harder to improve, I get the impression that many have been lazy and just expected to turn up and win futures and challengers immediately. Truth is, the ATP lower leagues are really tough to graduate from. It takes a ton of work/hard graft
Says who? He had reached his current height by the age of 19, and only began to change when he began preaching of his new 'rigorous' training regimes.

And anyway, your point of aerobic fitness being an advantage to the older players is very wrong, as I've already stated. It would only be an advantage if those older players were going beyond the call of duty and attaining VO2 max and Lactate Concentration levels to that of cyclists and runners, which is completely unnecessary in the first place. You can reach the desired values within months.
 
#346 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

I never said that the older players had an advantage in that way, its more that they no longer have much of a disadvantage physically, due to the way sports science works these days.

Since they are usually better than the younger guys technically and tactically, they tend to win out.

Also on Murray I don't really know, its just he looked more like an adult when his success started (by success I really mean his breakthrough at the us open in 08), whereas before he had this gangly teenage look about him.
 
#347 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

I never said that the older players had an advantage in that way, its more that they no longer have much of a disadvantage physically, due to the way sports science works these days.

Since they are usually better than the younger guys technically and tactically, they tend to win out.
Please explain.

At the very best, they can achieve equal results in cardiovascular scores, such as those I've mentioned. However, in overall relevant elements of fitness, they should be at a disadvantage in agility, flexibility and potentially strength and power due to loss in flexibility and the possibility of injury. So overall, there is no advantage at all to being an older tennis player, physically speaking.

Regarding Murray, that's generally what happens when one gains muscle mass and loses fat. I've seen it happen 1000 times.

He must've went from a weedy 75kg to around 82kg. It's what we call "noob gains" in the bodybuilding circle. This along with the addition of scruffy facial hair can't hurt. :)
 
#350 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

Yes, Ferrer really is amazing. If I was still an aspiring tennis player like I was at 14 he'd be my idol tbh. Never used to like him but the way he has got better and better with age (considering his style of play) is incredible
 
#353 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

Yes, Ferrer really is amazing. If I was still an aspiring tennis player like I was at 14 he'd be my idol tbh. Never used to like him but the way he has got better and better with age (considering his style of play) is incredible
The thing is, it's now impossible to analyse the change in Ferrer's physical attributes from the age of 20 to now because he most certainly had a different lifestyle, diet and training regime. One of the biggest problems in Sports Science is inconsistency, as such, where such in depth and prolonged analysis could potentially lead to new findings. It's of course unreasonable to assume we will be able to monitor an elite athlete's life for 10 years, or even 5, but it's something that would really, really intrigue me, especially in someone like Ferrer.

I've never really been a fan of Ferrer, but I have nothing but respect towards his professionalism. If only all players had this and young players took notice, we would have a more competitive tour albeit more mechanical. Either way, it should be inspiring for youngsters to note that despite being far from the most technically able player on tour, he has used his best assets to his advantage and in my opinion, probably reached his potential, with some luck along with way. (Court homogenisation)

Murray maybe struggled to enter top 5 or to stay in top 10 at first, but he never struggled to stay in top 30 or 50, let alone top 250 :)
I don't know if this is directed to me or not, as it's irrelevant as I was purely speaking on behalf of Murray's physical change.
 
#352 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

Yeah but lets face it though, Tomic, Dimitrov, Harrison etc just aren't a patch on the likes of Nadal, Djokovic, Murray or even Delpo. I fear that may play a bigger part of it than we pretend. The new generation is just kinda crap
 
#355 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

I think it's mainly a mental thing. First, being able to perform under the immense pressure now takes some time to get used to. Especially the top guys now play their best tennis on the big points. Most people need some experience before they are able to do this.

Second the tactical aspect in tennis has become much more important the last years. Young guys lack the experience to correctly change their tactic during a match, something that's really hard to do if you're playing yourself.

I think allowing a coach on the court would help a lot in this. However I'm still not sure what my opinion is on this point.
 
#356 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

I think it's mainly a mental thing. First, being able to perform under the immense pressure now takes some time to get used to. Especially the top guys now play their best tennis on the big points. Most people need some experience before they are able to do this.

Second the tactical aspect in tennis has become much more important the last years. Young guys lack the experience to correctly change their tactic during a match, something that's really hard to do if you're playing yourself.

I think allowing a coach on the court would help a lot in this. However I'm still not sure what my opinion is on this point.
No.

And are you saying the youngsters of 2000 would have struggled to perform better in this era?

It's simple, the talent pool is considerably weaker than in years past and the young players are physically and mentally inept.
 
#357 · (Edited)
Re: No teens in the top 250!

From what I read on this debate, I think that people should be careful that the debate is not so much youngsters (teens are mentioned here for instance) vs oldies (>=30 years old),

but rather youngsters vs players with an "average age" (24-28)

The phenomenon of youngsters failing to emerge is much more visible than any phenomenon of old players having more success nowadays. Statistically, players who are 30 years old or more still appear to quickly decline, even though it appears less visible at the present moment because there was a high number of very good players in Fed's generation, and also a relatively high number of players who managed to better use some important parts of their potential with time (Ferrer, Fish, Melzer, Benneteau, Lopez, Youzhny, even Federer are in that case).

I say that especially because of that comparison with cycling or marathon which has led to the argument of the endurance of >30-years old guys.

Like Burrow, I don't think it's relevant in tennis.

But ... the question remains whether a 24-year-old guy may be more endurant and solid than a youngster, both physically and mentally. Also knows his body better ... and maybe uses doping better, because, sorry, when one speaks of the undeniable improvement of the doctors and physios' watch in tennis, I can't help thinking of the possibility of doping either.

Especially, as far as solidity is concerned and as I said, I'm surprised by the number of youngsters who have had big injuries in recent years. I gave a list a few posts ago and that list appears to be very long to me.

Of course, in that "endurance", one can't help thinking as well of the "mental endurance", that is the ability and motivation to work hard and constantly, as some said. One can think that players when they get a little bit older may be harder at work, one can also think that youngsters nowadays are not brave enough.

PS : Burrow spoke of Kuerten : when Kuerten emerged, he was nearly 21 years old.
 
#358 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

From what I read on this debate, I think that people should be careful that the debate is not so much youngsters (teens are mentioned here for instance) vs oldies (>=30 years old),

but rather youngsters vs players with an "average age" (24-28)
Not sure. Players 24-28 are usually at their best and if they outperform younger ones, that's pretty much expected. However, people speak about stamina and endurance and then you have Haas and Stepanek who are both nearly 35 and doing much better than most if not all of 'youngsters'.
 
#367 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

I see the Omerta is in full form at MTF.

The posts that expose the obvious reason for this phenomena are deleted, and all we are left with are fools with their denial trying to explain away the obvious.
 
#369 ·
Re: No teens in the Top 100

well, that's life, avg life span for people gets longer too, we look younger for longer, we get married late and have first children in mid 30s

dunno why ppl have such a teen obsession in tennis

if they are boned by children winning medals, i suggest to watch china team in sports gymnastics or smth

tennis is the same cool sport whether slam winners are 18 or 28
 
#370 ·
Re: No teens in the Top 100

well, that's life, avg life span for people gets longer too, we look younger for longer, we get married late and have first children in mid 30s

dunno why ppl have such a teen obsession in tennis

if they are boned by children winning medals, i suggest to watch china team in sports gymnastics or smth

tennis is the same cool sport whether slam winners are 18 or 28
Well said :)
 
#375 ·
Re: No teens in the Top 100

if you want seeing new faces, switch to cycling, you get new heroes every season after previous ones get banned (maybe weightlifting and sprints are also the options)

chang won RG at 17, by the age of 30 he was done
borg won RG at 18, retired aged 26
wilander won RG at 18, was practically done at the age of 26

i don't really see the point

the players who really went well from a teenager to 30-something can be counted on one hand

i, personally, couldnt care less if someone peaks 17-26 or 26-34

the only problem for most of these guys is to get to the main stage they have to play a few years on the ITF horrible circuit
 
#376 ·
Re: No teens in the Top 100

Well I do care, cause I can't stand torture of 4 players any more, enoguh is enough.. but don't worry, no one will win anything big before 26, and they will play 'till the 35
 
#380 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

what about Haas?

In one thread you crying players are too old at 30, and here you stating young players are not physical mature but still 35 old Haas does LOL

Make a deal with yourself or you will be considered as bipolar person, same as your 99% fedtards buddies.
 
#408 ·
Re: No teens in the top 250!

Jiri Vesely will be 242nd next week and has made another ATP point (for now) this week.
This is reaching! :lol: Vesely is ranked 206 now but he'll be 20 in four months!

However, the real 'teen' still in his wonder years is 17 year old Nick Kyrgios ranked 324.

How's Vesely's game anyways? Any promise?
 
#388 · (Edited)
Re: No teens in the top 250!

Will we have any 20 year olds or less in top 100 when Tomic turns 21 in 6 months?
Top 100? Better ask about top 200, since the best 19 yr olds are currently around 250-300 :)

in an article about French hope Lucas Pouille thanks to Soulage :) ( http://www.menstennisforums.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=256746&d=1360256653 ), I read Fabrice Santoro's opinion : "the physical level is much higher than before. The first four are Martians. One can't reach that physical level at 18. Even 20 years old is early"
Funny thing that everybody look at top 4 and conclude that physical level is too high. Never mind that guys like Mike Russel are much better ranked than majority of teens, going to turn 35 and close to equaling his career best. At this rate it seems more likely to see a 40 yr old breaking in the top 100 than a 20 year old :p
 
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