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The Federer Decline Thread

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#1 ·
An interesting piece from Tom Perotta

Relax Federer faithful, it's only March

by Tom Perotta
Special to ESPN.com


No, dear fans of Roger Federer, the sky isn't falling. The No. 1 ranking is not in jeopardy just yet. It isn't time for your man to do something drastic, like hiring Brad Gilbert as a coach, shaving his head or asking Wilson to design him a new racket or some new strings. He doesn't need any encouragement from Tiger Woods, who has been tightening his grip on the title of "most dominant athlete in the world." He doesn't need to change his technique or his strategy or his training methods. One loss to Andy Murray at a small tournament in Federer's de facto home of Dubai doesn't doom a career.

Still worried? That's reasonable enough. Federer looked flat in Australia, understandable considering the food poisoning he had before the tournament began. It was also recently revealed the Swiss had mononucleosis -- unbeknownst to him at the time -- Down Under. However, before he played Murray, he said he was fit and eager to play. He seemed ready to make a statement, that statement being, "I'm Roger Federer, and you are not." He had to have been confident despite not playing in five weeks, since he had won in Dubai in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2007 -- and lost in the final in 2006.

This would be his first appearance since losing to Novak Djokovic, the man most people peg as the next No. 1 player in the world (the confident Djokovic is no doubt one of those people). It was the Swiss' first chance to remind his rivals who runs the tour. Instead, Murray was only reminded that Federer's forehand occasionally disappears for games at a time.

Perhaps you're not worried about the Murray match, but something else? You're concerned that Federer has a long year ahead of him. He's scheduled to play more tournaments than usual, plus the Olympic Games in Beijing. He also has more good players to contend with than at any other point in his career. In four years as the No. 1 player in the world, Federer hasn't had to overcome a lot of obstacles at one time. He's had no season-ending injuries, no personal tragedies and no consistent threats on the tour other than Rafael Nadal on clay and, the past two years, Nadal at Wimbledon.

In the next two years, he'll face adversity, in the form of Djokovic, Nadal, Murray and maybe, just maybe, a player like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, wherever he goes. He'll have to worry more about injury as he ages. He'll have to worry about losing motivation or confidence if he loses a few more matches. He'll have to deal with the pressure of being two major titles away from Pete Sampras' record of 14 -- so close, but still quite far away considering how abruptly a dominant tennis career can end (a 25-year-old John McEnroe won two majors in 1984 but couldn't win another one in his final eight years on the tour).

Federer has a lot on his mind, and a lot left to accomplish, but there's no cause for worry. In tennis, confidence comes and goes quickly. Remember how things looked in November? Federer dominated his last three matches at the Masters Cup and Djokovic ended the year with five consecutive losses and seemed destined for a slump in 2008.

Andy Murray wasted no time derailing Roger Federer's hopes of getting back on track in Dubai.
A little more than three months later, Djokovic is the Australian Open champion and taken seriously when he makes absurd comments, like: "Considering the results this year, I expected Murray to win." No doubt, Murray was going to have a chance, but Djokovic expected Murray to win? Really? What results was he looking at? Couldn't have been that first-round loss Murray suffered at the Australian Open to Tsonga. Maybe it was his first-round loss to Robin Haase, ranked No. 94 in the world, in Rotterdam a few weeks ago. A convincing performance indeed.

There was a lot to dislike about the way Federer played against Murray. He returned terribly (he didn't win a single point against Murray's first serve in the third set, 0-for-14) and he sprayed a lot of forehands. He was aced 10 times -- a credit to Murray but rare against Federer (Andy Roddick usually won't ace Federer that often in three sets).

Still, there was a lot to like, too. Federer frequently attacked the net, as he did in Shanghai last year. He served well in the first and third sets. He seemed to move well, which wasn't the case by the end of the Australian Open. Why doubt that he'll return to the form he had just a few months ago? He's had cold streaks before and come out of them just fine. Remember Guillermo Canas and Filippo Volandri? Canas beat Federer twice last year and Volandri beat him once. By the end of 2007, did those losses mean anything at all?

While the early loss in Dubai deprived Federer of a few useful warm-up matches leading up to Indian Wells, it might also help him. He can now fly to the United States sooner than he might have planned for the Sampras exhibition next week. Last year, Federer lost his first match at Indian Wells, in the second round, after winning it the previous three seasons. He stands to gain a lot of ranking points if he does well. He could gain a few more in Miami, where he lost in the fourth round. If he wins both tournaments and performs well at Estoril, Portugal, where he didn't play last year, he'll have a cushion over Nadal in the rankings that the Spaniard won't be able to top without a Federer flop at Roland Garros or Wimbledon, or a sensational hard-court season from Nadal (which has yet to happen). Djokovic has a lot of points to defend in the coming weeks, too, and he's still 1,300 points behind Federer.

If Sampras double-bagels Federer at their exhibition Monday night, maybe then Federer fans will have something to worry about. Otherwise, remember that it's only March. You might end up remembering this season as the best of Federer's career.

Tom Perrotta is a senior editor at Tennis Magazine.
 
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#1,237 ·
Re: When did Federer lose his prime forehand?

I don't think he ever lost it per se. He simply started slowing down back in 2008, starting shanking too much and mishitting shots the prime Fed would not miss. It's normal tho. I know many people here see Fed as immortal but he is just human. Nobody can sustain that level of play and Fed will retire at some point. Give a guy a break. Millions of matches on the internet to watch and admire his skills.

I'd say probably the best FH ever, although I'll always fight for Gonzo in this category :). Sorry to bring Gonzo here, but when I see his FH I feel like 'I want sex now', :hearts::hearts::hearts::lol:
 
#1,238 ·
Re: When did Federer lose his prime forehand?

Federer has never been the same player since he contracted mono. That year he played lights out for the first two matches of the Aussie Open then won a grueling five setter against Tipsarevic and since then he has never fully recovered.
 
#1,239 ·
Re: When did Federer lose his prime forehand?

He hasn't lost it it just materialises alot more seldom than it used to. Even in 2012 Fed has played some matches where his Fh has been just superb. He lost the consistancy and aura around it in about 2008 when Rafa started to give him pain.
 
#1,240 ·
Re: When did Federer lose his prime forehand?

When he realised Tdoc rates Nadal's better than his. It's all mental.
 
#1,241 ·
Re: When did Federer lose his prime forehand?

Never. His speed and footwork declined, not his FH per se.
 
#1,242 ·
Re: When did Federer lose his prime forehand?

Never. His speed and footwork declined, not his FH per se.
Not really. Federer shanks shots these days where he has 10 years to set up and hit it.
 
#1,243 ·
Re: When did Federer lose his prime forehand?

I would say 2008, but it's not entierly gone. Much like his career in general, post peak, his forehand comes and goes in brilliance.
 
#1,245 ·
Re: When did Federer lose his prime forehand?

I would rather ask when it became so easy attacking Feds serve, it doesnt always happen but sometimes nowadays you see players like Murray and Berdych just ripping on Feds 2nd serve and sometimes 1st serve. I think I remember Nalbandian doing that on indoor courts at some point in Feds peak, but even then Fed had the footwork to respond to those attacks unlike nowadays.

I dont recall anyone able to attack Nadals serve like that since he improved his serve, neither Djokovic's which is strange. At the same time Feds 2nd serve can be very effective if he gets it going, his 2 main rivals; Djokovic and Nadal doesnt really have the ability to attack it.

I think the key change to the worse in Feds game is that he has so much more difficulty to turn defense to offense compared to before because of slower footwork, so if you put him on the defensive nowadays you will put him out of balance, Murray has understood this and stopped pushing against Federer but attacks alot. In fact Murray is more offensive against Federer than Nadal and Djokovic who still think pushing for mistakes still is the most effective way to beat Federer.
 
#1,255 ·
Re: When did Federer lose his prime forehand?

I would rather ask when it became so easy attacking Feds serve, it doesnt always happen but sometimes nowadays you see players like Murray and Berdych just ripping on Feds 2nd serve and sometimes 1st serve. I think I remember Nalbandian doing that on indoor courts at some point in Feds peak, but even then Fed had the footwork to respond to those attacks unlike nowadays.

I dont recall anyone able to attack Nadals serve like that since he improved his serve, neither Djokovic's which is strange. At the same time Feds 2nd serve can be very effective if he gets it going, his 2 main rivals; Djokovic and Nadal doesnt really have the ability to attack it.

I think the key change to the worse in Feds game is that he has so much more difficulty to turn defense to offense compared to before because of slower footwork, so if you put him on the defensive nowadays you will put him out of balance, Murray has understood this and stopped pushing against Federer but attacks alot. In fact Murray is more offensive against Federer than Nadal and Djokovic who still think pushing for mistakes still is the most effective way to beat Federer.
I think you answered here yourself about serve. I can easily find out when Rogie`s troubles with back increasing by looking on his average figures on 1st and 2nd serve speed. For example here in Shanghai he was far from OK, his 1st serve was ridiculously slow by any rate.
 
#1,248 ·
Re: When did Federer lose his prime forehand?

Federer won Wimbledon outplaying Murray and Djokovic with his backhand and volleying alot in the final, his forehand was very up and down. If you attack Federer's forehand side you will get alot of points, too many players get stuck in backhand rally exchanges and dare not go to the forehand believing Federer can move to his forehand side as fast as in his peak.

Djokovic is one player who really is surprisingly passive against Federer when he got weapons to be alot more offensive, that is probably why he still gets outplayed by 31 year old Federer on faster surfaces.
 
#1,250 ·
Re: When did Federer lose his prime forehand?

His forehand is still there - it just looks much worse in comaprison to prime Nadal's. That's why people think it has declined. :shrug:
 
#1,251 ·
Re: When did Federer lose his prime forehand?

His forehand is still there - it just looks much worse in comaprison to prime Nadal's. That's why people think it has declined. :shrug:
Incomparable, one is a liquid whip, the other is a cyclone. Both are good for different reasons.
 
#1,259 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Is he done)

If any of you is old enough to have done Latin, you're probably familiar with Gibbons "Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire". It took over 1000 pages to achieve it. Seems Fed's decline and fall might take relatively as long :p
 
#1,260 ·
What is wrong with Roger Federer? Sudden drop in form.

He is almost certainty going to lose the No. 1 spot next week. Djokovic and Murray is laughing in his face. :mad:

After winning his 17th slam, Roger's hasn't beaten a top 4 player since. He's lost to Murray the last two times in straights and now Murray heads the Head-to-head. How long is it going to be before Murray starts saying he is greater than Federer in interviews?

Why the sudden drop in form. He doesn't look like he can beat either Djokovic or Murray right now and he is defending everything. Basel, Paris, WTF.

Is this end? It reminds me of how after one last run in 2009 it was over for Roddick. He collapsed in the ranking until his retirement this year. The former world No. 1 and slam winner on his last legs. Is Roger going the way of Roddick?
 
#1,261 ·
Re: What is wrong with Roger Federer? Sudden drop in form.

He is almost certainty going to lose the No. 1 spot next week. Djokovic and Murray is laughing in his face. :mad:

After winning his 17th slam, Roger's hasn't beaten a top 4 player since. He's lost to Murray the last two times in straights and now Murray heads the Head-to-head. How long is it going to be before Murray starts saying he is greater than Federer in interviews?

Why the sudden drop in form. He doesn't look like he can beat either Djokovic or Murray right now and he is defending everything. Basel, Paris, WTF.

Is this end? It reminds me of how after one last run in 2009 it was over for Roddick. He collapsed in the ranking until his retirement this year. The former world No. 1 and slam winner on his last legs. Is Roger going the way of Roddick?

Here we go......



Federer beat Djokovic in the Cincinnati final BTW.

I can't believe I actually bothered to respond to this post.
 
#1,265 ·
Re: What is wrong with Roger Federer? Sudden drop in form.

He needs to borrow No2e's magic egg to heal his back. Combination of serve botting his way through tournaments and sexy time with a generously proportioned girl like Mirka take a big tall on his back. :sad: Noserer needs to improve his form (serve) fast, I would suggest using his considerable wealth to develop illegal shoes which grant him extra 10cm of height. He can be real Swiss Karlovic :rocker2:
 
#1,282 ·
Re: What is wrong with Roger Federer? Sudden drop in form.

needs to improve his form (serve) fast...
that's actually quite spot on, even if very little else was.

no question as he advances in age that a strong serve will be required to get him through. however, his second serve has not been good since the US Open... but, however, he's only played one tournament since then, so we'll see just how "bad" he is.
 
#1,268 ·
Re: What is wrong with Roger Federer? Sudden drop in form.

it was surprising for me he managed to get back to no 1 in the first place.

nowadays hes only going down and i think he's comfortable with that, or at least it is an idea he can live with. what do you expect? he's won everything so far, is getting old and has a family.

give the old man a break
 
#1,270 ·
Re: What is wrong with Roger Federer? Sudden drop in form.

Roger will probably win Basel and the WTF anyway and shut your mouth once more.
No. He will not win WTF, you can bet your house on it.

P.S. I think you blocked me, but I'm not sure?
 
#1,273 ·
Re: What is wrong with Roger Federer? Sudden drop in form.

Noserer will not reach WTF semi. Book it.
It'd be possible if he has Murray, Berdych (or perhaps Delpo) and Tsonga in his group. If he gets a group like Ferrer, Delpo, Tipsy, he'll coast to the semis easily.
 
#1,280 ·
Re: What is wrong with Roger Federer? Sudden drop in form.

Motivation.

His main goals of the season were:
Olympics
No. 1 (with weeks record)
Slams
Davis Cup

Olympics, Slams and Davis Cup have all passed and he has the No. 1 weeks record. Sure there's the year end number one but that's not as big a deal as the others.
 
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