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  Topic Review (Newest First)
06-08-2016 01:54 AM
ExcaliburII
Re: Gambling confession

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ibracadabra View Post
I'm dead. Excalibur implying he is being headhunted by bookies.
maybe look again
01-19-2015 08:22 PM
invisiblecoolers
Re: Gambling confession

I won like $7000 and lost close to $7500, so in the end I am trailing by $500.

These days I have considerably reduced my betting as i got bored with it, I haven't overcome the addiction completely but I withdrew my $450 yesterday [which I made from $200 investment]and left my account with just $37, lost all the remaining bets for $37 but won a bet yesterdau on Federer -Lu match which should give me $15 , just going to enjoy with the $15 of cash.

If I make $1 million from this $15 cash I will pay your $1000
10-13-2014 04:05 PM
Rumblingbelly
Re: Gambling confession

Staking limits are very important, its so easy to crash and burn placing too big bets for your bankroll. (easier said than done)
10-07-2014 03:34 PM
Gospodin
Re: Gambling confession

Im new to this forum (2013 first I ever heard of it) but not new at all to betting. Ive been betting since 2003 when I was 12 years old.
From 2003 to 2011 never ended a year in minus with an emphasis on 2010 when I had 10 000 euros profit, a number Ive never came close since and mostly before. 2012 was my worst year in betting the first I ended in red, I had really difficult times and some losses that were just heartbreaking. One of them was when Almagro lost against Kubot after leading 2:0, after serving for the match X times, winning more games, more points, more winner, better 1st serve %, more aces, less unforced errors etc and he still managed to lose...and that all just a day after Berdych almost did the same thing against Robert..2013 was a year in which i started to bet on tennis almost exclusively and it was quite succesful, besides Nadal destroying against Darcis for 1800 euros, I was betting mostly on female tennis, over games and it brought me a solid profit but unfortunately, I lost control and during the summer lost a lot of money, culminating with Jankovic-Keys over 20.5 games USOPEN13 which ended 6:4 6:3 and that game was the only one that I missed for around 3300 euros. After that I stopped betting, for the first time realized how much i dont need it...then in 2014 started betting a bit by bit, and it was a neutral year for me and now last few weeks I cant win shit. What I didnt mention is that unlike all bettors with any brain in their head, I am an idiot who continues playing parlays instead of singles and doubles, and for winning a 6 game ticket you need an awful amount of luck which I obviously dont have anymore. Also what is funny is that during the 2008-2011 period which was a major success I didnt knew so much about football and tennis, meaning that the lack of knowledge actually helped me..because nowadays I know so much more that it is often impossible for me to decided to bet on someone, its hard for me to distinguish the quality between some challenger or ITF players..

Also, the golden years of betting on Vika Azarenka are gone...I dont know if you can believe this but all in all before 2013/2014 I had 78 bets on Azarenka out of which 76 passed!!! It was almost always handicaps on her as she was the only player you could rely on in destroying the opponent from 1st to last game, unlike Federer,Nadal,Djokovic,Serena and Sharapova who would often play as much as they needed...

Anyway, all in all.. I can honestly say that i regret ever starting betting, because even when it was going great it wasnt easy...It was always hard to recover from losing a bet in the last minute, or missing just 1 game out of 10 etc etc, by that I mean that no matter what happened after the bet was in my mind and it was hard to forget..there are people who after the ticket is over go on with their day, and I would do the same, but still it would be i nthe back of my mind. Nevertheless, I gained things from betting..learned so much about languages,culture,money etc..for instance there is no person in the planet with which I coudnt start a conversation because even if they came from the smallest village in Sweden or Peru or i dont know where Id always know at least a city,sportclub or a player from there, which sometimes comes in great...also all those losses and the consequences of betting made me emotionally stronger because as you know sometimes its really CRUEL..but who knows how much of that took a toll on me without even realizing it.
Lately Ive been fantasizing about finally starting to play only singles and doubles but for that I need a big budget around 1000-2500 euros which I currently have but would never spend it on betting..so until I win at least some portion of the planned budget through betting I wont even start...and you all know how hard it is to win thousands of euros from only hundreds of euros in stakes, ofc there is always exceptions, but for the last 2.5 years I havent been that exception...

I could go on and on, but this is a part of the story, but I always believe and know from first hand that its great for your mind to relieve your soul especially with fellow bettors who understand.
08-20-2014 03:32 PM
Rumblingbelly
Re: Gambling confession

Funny how betting variance goes sometimes, ive staked 11000€ this year and im up +6€, I would say bad luck mostly as I always beat the closing line, sometimes with a big margin.
08-03-2014 10:30 PM
ExcaliburII
Re: Gambling confession

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ibracadabra View Post
I'm dead. Excalibur implying he is being headhunted by bookies.
i did not imply anything. but you arent so far away from the truth
08-03-2014 09:38 PM
KaiserT
Re: Gambling confession

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ibracadabra View Post
I'm dead. Excalibur implying he is being headhunted by bookies.
qué?
07-31-2014 01:22 PM
motorhead
Re: Gambling confession

07-31-2014 03:51 AM
Ibracadabra
Re: Gambling confession

Quote:
Originally Posted by ExcaliburII View Post
You can always create more and more accounts under other people names.

Ive used about 80 of them.
I'm dead. Excalibur implying he is being headhunted by bookies.
07-30-2014 06:49 PM
motorhead
Re: Gambling confession

Quote:
Originally Posted by LarissaVer View Post
I agree. But I think there's a simple way to not be flagged as "non-recreational gambler", I don't know how things go in other countries but here, in Spain, we have on ground betting agencies and I didn't heard any story about someone getting banned there. The downside of these agencies is that they have winning limits to around 10 000 euro but for me is more than enough, as for the stake limit I think you can easily place more than 100 euro on one bet.

Also about predicting who will win, there are 2 types of bettors: one is the bettor who place the bet by instinct and other type that is doing his/her homework, checks stats and don't try to get rich by just placing one bet. With a good money management I think is possible to keep a good balance and obtain some reasonable profit from betting.
just because there are high street bookmakers doesn't mean they accept any possible sum you'd want to stake, I've an agency just in front of my house and they accept peanuts, not just from me but from everybody. it's true that there are several agencies who are willing to accept more here but this is usually up to very professional managers running them, something very rare.
on top of that prices offered are often an issue as philosophicalarf said.
07-29-2014 11:24 PM
ExcaliburII
Re: Gambling confession

Quote:
Originally Posted by callitasicit View Post
I've heard those stories but I don't believe them. Unless you are a bookie or working on the other side, it's hard to fathom.
Thats total uninformed rubbish.
07-29-2014 11:23 PM
ExcaliburII
Re: Gambling confession

You can always create more and more accounts under other people names.

Ive used about 80 of them.
07-24-2014 07:44 PM
philosophicalarf
Re: Gambling confession

Quote:
Originally Posted by LarissaVer View Post
I agree. But I think there's a simple way to not be flagged as "non-recreational gambler", I don't know how things go in other countries but here, in Spain, we have on ground betting agencies and I didn't heard any story about someone getting banned there.
We have betting shops all over the place in the UK - Ladbrokes, Will hill mainly. They eventually will find a win to ban undesirables, but it's not much of a loss as they have crap tennis prices anyway.
07-23-2014 03:01 PM
LarissaVer
Re: Gambling confession

Quote:
Originally Posted by philosophicalarf View Post
Conceive of it like this: bookies make prices roughly corresponding to estimated likelihoods of the outcomes. To make money, a gambler has to repeatedly spot the occasions when this estimate is inaccurate, where betting will result in a profitable outcome (on average). This is usually called "value betting".


The "house wins in the end"? Mostly yes, because of a number of reasons:

1) 99.9% of gamblers are merely trying to "predict" who will win, which is of course impossible unless you're psychic.

2) Almost all books ban anyone betting value, or limit their maximum bet to near zero amounts. William Hill, Ladbrokes, Bet365, etc etc - none of these will tolerate what they call "non-recreational gamblers", because they know these are unprofitable customers.

3) Of those who can spot value, most also bet far too large, a critical error which will bankrupt anyone. There's a simple mathematical proof for this, but basically: the bad runs of results kill the over-staker, while the more conservative staker lives to fight again.
I agree. But I think there's a simple way to not be flagged as "non-recreational gambler", I don't know how things go in other countries but here, in Spain, we have on ground betting agencies and I didn't heard any story about someone getting banned there. The downside of these agencies is that they have winning limits to around 10 000 euro but for me is more than enough, as for the stake limit I think you can easily place more than 100 euro on one bet.

Also about predicting who will win, there are 2 types of bettors: one is the bettor who place the bet by instinct and other type that is doing his/her homework, checks stats and don't try to get rich by just placing one bet. With a good money management I think is possible to keep a good balance and obtain some reasonable profit from betting.
07-19-2014 01:13 PM
philosophicalarf
Re: Gambling confession

Quote:
Originally Posted by callitasicit View Post
I don't believe anyone can profit on gambling in the long run. Lets face it folks, the house always wins in the end!
Conceive of it like this: bookies make prices roughly corresponding to estimated likelihoods of the outcomes. To make money, a gambler has to repeatedly spot the occasions when this estimate is inaccurate, where betting will result in a profitable outcome (on average). This is usually called "value betting".


The "house wins in the end"? Mostly yes, because of a number of reasons:

1) 99.9% of gamblers are merely trying to "predict" who will win, which is of course impossible unless you're psychic.

2) Almost all books ban anyone betting value, or limit their maximum bet to near zero amounts. William Hill, Ladbrokes, Bet365, etc etc - none of these will tolerate what they call "non-recreational gamblers", because they know these are unprofitable customers.

3) Of those who can spot value, most also bet far too large, a critical error which will bankrupt anyone. There's a simple mathematical proof for this, but basically: the bad runs of results kill the over-staker, while the more conservative staker lives to fight again.
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