MistaFlava's 2009 ATP Tennis Betting Record: 17-10 (+$9094.00)
***I only wager on odds 1.35 or better and never do parlays
(If you wager exactly the amounts I wager on every match this season, I promise you make some crazy money)
I thought I had the sweep all locked up yesterday but of course Mr. Gulbis decided to wager on Andreev and that match had sketchy written all over it. Anyways, not going to back idiots like that who can win matches but not big ones. That was it. Now onto some real tennis as we enter the third round of action here. Like I said before, if you follow me all season, you make big money, that's a promise guys. I am very busy with work, very busy with capping other sports and betting on tennis is something I do for fun on the side so don't hate the player bitches, hate the game. I'm sick and tired of all the idiots who run around on tennis forums claiming to be good because they go 10-0 betting on 1.15 favorites and parlaying 1.03 favorites by the dozen to make a couple hundred bucks.
All my wagering is done at Pinnacle. All the best this season and if you have a problem with me or my style, LICK MY NUTS!
Friday, January 23
Australian Open - Round of 32
Marcos Baghdatis 1.67 over Mardy Fish ($3500 to win $2345)
Call me a sheep or call me a sucker, truth of the matter is I went big against Baghdatis in the Round of 64 and believe me I learned from my mistake. The whole time I had it in the back of my mind that for some reason Baggy shows up for Australia Open matches. It could be because of his immense following in this Country or it could be because he loves to start a new season on the fresh side of things and feels his game a lot better now than he does in smaller tournaments in between Slam Events. Who cares really. The bottom line is that Baghdatis, until he faces a player with more pure tennis skills than him in this event, is not going to lose a match. I don't care how well Mardy Fish has played here this week or in the past for that matter. Baghdatis actually lost the first set of his match against Soderling and he didn't look all that good to begin with but he did the simple things like frustrate Soderling with the running game and easily crusied to a four set win in that match. Now that I look back, I had no business betting on that match knowing how Soderling is in these Slam Events and knowing how good Baghdatis is at the Australian Open. Moving on. Fish comes into this match having won 6 of the 7 sets he has played in this Australian Open but that doesn't mean shit. His opening round win over #279 ranked Samuel Groth was anything but smooth as he dropped the opening set and struggled in the ensuing two sets before settling down and winning and his Round of 64 win over Bolelli was nothing to write home about because Super Bol sucks on hardcourts. This is a huge step up in class for Baghdatis and I just don't think he has what it takes to win the match. Marcos Baghdatis is 46-17 (73.0%) lifetime in BEST OF FIVE SET matches while Mardy Fish is only 29-29 (50.0%) lifetime in BEST OF FIVE SET matches
. I think it's also worth a mention that Baghdatis has only lost 4 times in 21 matches at the Australian Open and those losses were against Lleyton Hewiit, Gael Monfils and Roger Federe (twice) and believe me when I say that Fish is nowhere near the caliber of those players so Baghdatis should continue his success as the Australian Open. Fish has also been very good in past years at this tournament winning 16 of his 21 matches here but he has only been past the Round of 32 once before and that was in 2007. Well the road ends here for Fish and Baggy is going to take him for a nice ride tonight. A lot of people are tempted to fade Fish and I am too, believe me, but there is no point making that mistake at this tournament because he loves it here and plays like he is TOP 10 material every single time he is here. BAGHDATIS IS TOO GOOD IN LONG MATCHES AND HE IS GOING TO CASH IN LARGE FOR US HERE TODAY!
Tomas Berdych 1.65 over Stanislas Wawrinka ($2500 to win $1625)
I think these two players are very much alike and this could be a very good match with some back and forth action to keep the crowd happy. Both players are 23 years old, both players ranked in the TOP 25 players in the world, both players have won tournaments in the past and both players have been ranked as high as #9 in the world. So we have virtual tennis twins on the court for this one and somehow though they have faced each other only five times in the past and Berdych has the advantage 3-2 in those matches. The two split their meetings in 2008 with Wawrinka taking home the bacon at TMS Indian Wells and Berdych winning the return match at TMS Paris. One thing is for sure however, I would always take Berdych at the Australian Open over Wawrinka at the Australian Open. Berdych has looked pretty damn good so far in this tournament winning both his matches in straight sets and never really breaking a sweat against Bobby Ginepri and Brian Dabul. Prior to this tournament, Berdych looked awful in Sydney as he went down in flames and in straight sets against local boy Chris Guccione and to be honest with you I think he is the type of player that takes a bit of time to get going and he wasn't ready or willing to win that match. Well now he is back and will be very tough to beat. Wawrinka on the other hand comes into this match off opening round wins over Ivo Minar and Brydon Klein (???? who the fuck are these clowns) and the fact that he struggled to beat Minar the #102 ranked player in the world tells me a lot about how the young Swiss is going to perform in this match. He is not ready for the effectiveness and return game of Berdych and it won't take long for Wawrinka to realize he is completely outmatched in this battle. I would be the first to tell you guys that backing Wawrinka in a best of five set match is a good idea because he has won 14 of his last 17 best of fivers and is tough to beat. Berdych has been somewhat criticized for his lack of fitness and endurance in best of five set matches and the only reason I am betting smaller on this match is because Berdych has struggled in long matches and is only 6-5 over the last 12 months in best of five set matches. He lost in the first round of the US Open, he was bounced in the Round of 32 at Wimbledon, he lost in the Round of 64 at the French Open and he got smoked by Davydenko and Safin in Davis Cup action. Having said that, Berdych has been great at the Australian Open winning 13 of his 18 lifetime matches here as well as reaching the Round of 16 the last two years. Wawrinka on the other hand struggles at this tournament having won only 7 of his 12 lifetime matches and his only appearance in the Round of 32 was back in 2007 when he was sent packing by Rafael Nadal. The bottom line is that Berdych enjoys the hardcourts here a lot more than at other tournaments and this is definitely where you want to back him. Wawrinka for some reason does not have success on these courts and I just don't see him having enough to beat a very good looking Berdych. STRAIGHT TO THE BANK WITH THIS!