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Challenge: Predict the Top 8 of 2013 [final standings]

9K views 108 replies 72 participants last post by  nellis_lv 
#1 · (Edited)
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:cool: Predict the Top 8 of 2013


Final Standings

Congrats, Marto :yeah:
Code:
Nobody predicted Wawrinka, so nobody finished on 8/8, though many participants on 7/8: 

  1. [B][I]Marto[/I]              8 2[/B]  1.Nadal 2.Djokovic 3.Murray 4.Ferrer 5.Federer 6.DelPotro 7.Tsonga 8.Berdych
  2. [B][I]ciprianned[/I]        10 2[/B]  1.Nadal 2.Djokovic 3.Federer 4.Murray 5.Ferrer 6.DelPotro 7.Tsonga 8.Berdych
  3. [B][I]Alex999[/I]           10 0[/B]  1.Djokovic 2.Nadal 3.Murray 4.Federer 5.DelPotro 6.Ferrer 7.Berdych 8.Tsonga
  3. [B][I]Abel[/I]              10 0[/B]  1.Djokovic 2.Nadal 3.Murray 4.Federer 5.DelPotro 6.Ferrer 7.Berdych 8.Tsonga
  3. [B][I]Matthew2408[/I]       10 0[/B]  1.Murray 2.Djokovic 3.Ferrer 4.Nadal 5.Federer 6.DelPotro 7.Berdych 8.Tsonga
  6. [B][I]bizzle[/I]            12 0[/B]  1.Djokovic 2.Nadal 3.Murray 4.DelPotro 5.Federer 6.Ferrer 7.Tsonga 8.Berdych
  6. [B][I]nole_no1[/I]          12 0[/B]  1.Djokovic 2.Nadal 3.Murray 4.Federer 5.DelPotro 6.Ferrer 7.Tsonga 8.Berdych
  6. [B][I]nazzac[/I]            12 0[/B]  1.Djokovic 2.Nadal 3.Murray 4.Federer 5.DelPotro 6.Berdych 7.Ferrer 8.Tsonga
  6. [B][I]GSMnadal[/I]          12 0[/B]  1.Djokovic 2.Nadal 3.Federer 4.Murray 5.Ferrer 6.Berdych 7.DelPotro 8.Tsonga
  6. [B][I]Kowchi[/I]            12 0[/B]  1.Djokovic 2.Murray 3.Nadal 4.Federer 5.Ferrer 6.DelPotro 7.Berdych 8.Tsonga
  6. [B][I]duong[/I]             12 0[/B]  1.Djokovic 2.Murray 3.Nadal 4.Federer 5.DelPotro 6.Ferrer 7.Berdych 8.Tsonga
  6. [B][I]Featherer[/I]         12 0[/B]  1.Djokovic 2.Murray 3.Nadal 4.Federer 5.DelPotro 6.Ferrer 7.Berdych 8.Tsonga
  6. [B][I]Federer in 2[/I]      12 0[/B]  1.Federer 2.Djokovic 3.Nadal 4.Murray 5.Ferrer 6.DelPotro 7.Berdych 8.Tsonga
 ... 
 ->[URL="http://www.menstennisforums.com/showpost.php?p=12639154&postcount=96"][B]full list of entries[/B][/URL] 

[B]ATP YearEnd Rankings:[/B]        1.Nadal 2.Djokovic 3.Ferrer 4.Murray 5.DelPotro 6.Federer 7.Berdych 8.[B]Wawrinka[/B] 
                               9.Gasquet 10.Tsonga 11.Raonic 


[I]*side note: I excluded the following double accounts from the game (and also from the stats): 
    [B]Cheyen, RafaelNadalisGod, Noserer[/B][/I]


Stats
Code:
The Tennis players picked by 56 of the 57 entrants are sorted by their ATP rankings (season end 2012) 
to better illustrate the expected changes. 
(I excluded the picks of one entrant, that was obviously trolling, from the stats, but not from the game.) 
The first number after the players' names shows how often they were picked. 
The second number results from the predicted rankings, if 8 points for 1st ranks, ..., 1 for 8th. 

  1. [B]Djokovic[/B]   56   431 
  2. [B]Federer[/B]    56   310 
  3. [B]Murray[/B]     56   364 
  4. [B]Nadal[/B]      56   324 
  5. [B]Ferrer[/B]     47   132 
  6. [B]Berdych[/B]    49   119 
  7. [B]DelPotro[/B]   54   224 
  8. [B]Tsonga[/B]     39    65 
  9. [B]Tipsarevic[/B]  1     1  by [B][I]coolfish1103[/I][/B] 
 10. [B]Gasquet[/B]     2     2  by [B][I]Slasher1985[/I][/B] and [B][I]Pratik[/I][/B] 
(11. [B]Almagro[/B]     0) 
(12. [B]Monaco[/B]      0) 
 13. [B]Raonic[/B]     18    33! 
 14. [B]Isner[/B]       1     1  by [B][I]latso[/I][/B] 
 15. [B]Cilic[/B]       3     4  by [B][I]AncicCilic[/I][/B] and [B][I]Legendary Lopata[/I][/B] and [B][I]GrimbleGromble[/I][/B] 
(17. [B]Wawrinka[/B]    0!) 
 19. [B]Nishikori[/B]   5     6 
 24. [B]Verdasco[/B]    1     2  by [B][I]Dr. Albans[/I][/B] 
 26. [B]Janowicz[/B]    3     5  by [B][I]nellis_lv[/I][/B] and [B][I]BauerAlmeida[/I][/B] and [B][I]Brick Top[/I][/B] 
 48. [B]Dimitrov[/B]    1     1  by [B][I]iniesta896[/I][/B]
Code:
So the Top 8 of 2013 as expected by the average of the entrants are: 

  1. [B]Djokovic[/B]       0 
  2. [B]Murray[/B]        +1 
  3. [B]Nadal[/B]         +1 
  4. [B]Federer[/B]       -2 
  5. [B]DelPotro[/B]      +2 
  6. [B]Ferrer[/B]        -1 
  7. [B]Berdych[/B]       -1 
  8. [B]Tsonga[/B]         0 

And in fact two entrants chose precisely the above version: [B][I]duong[/I][/B] and myself.


The Challenge was...
Code:
[B]Predict the Tennis players that will make the Top 8[/B] (Entry list) [B]at the end of the 2013 season[/B] 
(after the DavisCup finals)[B] - and their rankings! 

Basically the winner is who predicts most Top 8 players correctly (so as possible all 8). 
The predicted rankings will be used for tiebreaks. 

1st tiebreak[/B]: (for entrants on the same number of correct picks) 
[B]Every single deviation from the real rankings leads to one penalty point[/B] 
(for every player/pick simply accumulated). 
For example, if I guess that Federer finishes 1st and Nadal 3rd, but in reality it turns out to be reversely, 
then I receive 2 penalty points for each of them, so altogether 4. 
[B]2nd tiebreak[/B]: (for entrants still tied after the 1st tiebreak) 
[B]Correctly predicted rankings in uninterrupted sequence, starting with the correct N°1.[/B] 
For example, if I pick "1.Djokovic 2.Federer 3.Murray", but in reality the order becomes "1.Djokovic 2.Murray 
3.Federer", then another entrant who picked "1.Djokovic 2.Murray" wins the tiebreak over me. 
[B]Entry deadline is the start of the AbuDhabi tournament on 27th December 2012.[/B] 
Before then you can also alter your picks / edit your posts if you like.
->2012 Top8Challenge: _ 1) !VamosRafa! & Looner 3) mark73http://www.menstennisforums.com/member.php?u=43989
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#37 ·
Re: Challenge: Predict the Top 8 of 2013 !

1. Djokovic
2. Federer
3. Murray
4. Del Potro
5. Berdych
6. Nadal
7. Ferrer
8. Tipsarevic
 
#40 ·
Re: Challenge: Predict the Top 8 of 2013 !

When talking about the top 8 at the end of 2013, how is current standing relevant?
It does not matter than Djokovic is X points ahead of Murray and Y ahead of Nadal or that Nadal has nothing to defend in the second half of the year.
At the end of year, it is only the points you have earned in 2013
 
#41 ·
Re: Challenge: Predict the Top 8 of 2013 !

When talking about the top 8 at the end of 2013, how is current standing relevant?
It does not matter than Djokovic is X points ahead of Murray and Y ahead of Nadal or that Nadal has nothing to defend in the second half of the year.
At the end of year, it is only the points you have earned in 2013
Yup, defending is only relevant to establish whether anyone can capture #1 early or mid-year. At the end of the year is irrelevant of course.
 
#43 ·
Re: Challenge: Predict the Top 8 of 2013 !

1. Federer
2. Murray
3. Djokovic
4. Del Potro
5. Berdych
6. Nadal
7. Ferrer
8. Tsonga
 
#51 · (Edited)
Re: Challenge: Predict the Top 8 of 2013 !

Djokovic: Wins 1 or 2 slams, titles on all surfaces.
Murray: Wins 1 slam, titles on all surfaces but clay.
Federer: Maybe wins 1 slam, titles on all surfaces.
Nadal: Maybe wins 1 slam, titles just on clay.
Del Potro: Maybe reaches a slam final.
Berdych: Maybe reaches a slam final.
Ferrer: Year not as good as 2012.
Tsonga: Similar to 2012, perhaps.
 
#63 · (Edited)
Re: Challenge: Predict the Top 8 of 2013 !

So far, 39 people picked. Here is the overall MTF predicted rankings so far.

1-Djokovic (picked by 29 people)

2-Murray (19)

3-Federer (15)

4-Nadal (13) - Federer was the most selected with 14 but he's already #3

5-Del Potro (17)

6-Berdych (10) - Ferrer has 10 selections too but Berdych has more selections for #5 so edge to him.

7-Ferrer (13) - Berdych has 14 but he's already #4.

8-Tsonga (16)


The most consensual pick is by far Nole for #1 followed by Delpo #5, no one comes even within 10 picks off them for their respective position.

The current top 4 were the only ones chosen in all 39 votes in the top 8, with Delpo picked 38 times. Nadal and Delpo had multiple picks for the most different positions: Delpo - 3 picks for #2, 3 for #3, 7 for #4, 17 for #5, 7 for #6, 2 for #7. Nadal - 3 for #1, 7 for #2, 10 for #3, 13 for #4, 4 for #5, 2 for #6.
 
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#66 ·
Re: Challenge: Predict the Top 8 of 2013 !

So far, 39 people picked. Here is the overall MTF predicted rankings so far.

1-Djokovic (picked by 29 people)

2-Murray (19)

3-Federer (15)

4-Nadal (13) - Federer was the most selected with 14 but he's already #3

5-Del Potro (17)

6-Berdych (10) - Ferrer has 10 selections too but Berdych has more selections for #5 so edge to him.

7-Ferrer (13) - Berdych has 14 but he's already #4.

8-Tsonga (16)


The most consensual pick is by far Nole for #1 followed by Delpo #5, no one comes even within 10 picks off them for their respective position.

The current top 4 were the only ones chosen in all 39 votes in the top 8, with Delpo picked 38 times. Nadal and Delpo had multiple picks for the most different positions: Delpo - 3 picks for #2, 3 for #3, 7 for #4, 17 for #5, 7 for #6, 2 for #7. Nadal - 3 for #1, 7 for #2, 10 for #3, 13 for #4, 4 for #5, 2 for #6.
Sounds reasonable. Although I think Fed will end up 4 or 5 this year given he is going to play less tournaments and Nadal will be a bit rusty at the beginning of the season.
 
#65 ·
Re: Challenge: Predict the Top 8 of 2013 !

Berdych is overrated on MTF. This man is a joke.
Eh why?

He got 1 pick for #3, 5 for #5, 10 for #6, 14 for #7, 5 for #8.

Most people seem to believe he will be either #6 or #7, sounds rather reasonable given his level of play and ranking over the past few years.
 
#75 ·
Re: Challenge: Predict the Top 8 of 2013 !

1) djokovic
2) murray
3) federer
4) nadal
5) del potro
6) ferrer
7) berdych
8) tsonga
 
#76 ·
Re: Challenge: Predict the Top 8 of 2013 !

1.Djokovic
2.Murray
3.Nadal
4.Federer
5.DelPotro
6.Ferrer
7.Berdych
8.Tsonga

...The Big 8 will do it again. :smoke:
 
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