Mens Tennis Forums banner

The Federer Decline Thread

113K views 2K replies 396 participants last post by  Rychu 
#1 ·
An interesting piece from Tom Perotta

Relax Federer faithful, it's only March

by Tom Perotta
Special to ESPN.com


No, dear fans of Roger Federer, the sky isn't falling. The No. 1 ranking is not in jeopardy just yet. It isn't time for your man to do something drastic, like hiring Brad Gilbert as a coach, shaving his head or asking Wilson to design him a new racket or some new strings. He doesn't need any encouragement from Tiger Woods, who has been tightening his grip on the title of "most dominant athlete in the world." He doesn't need to change his technique or his strategy or his training methods. One loss to Andy Murray at a small tournament in Federer's de facto home of Dubai doesn't doom a career.

Still worried? That's reasonable enough. Federer looked flat in Australia, understandable considering the food poisoning he had before the tournament began. It was also recently revealed the Swiss had mononucleosis -- unbeknownst to him at the time -- Down Under. However, before he played Murray, he said he was fit and eager to play. He seemed ready to make a statement, that statement being, "I'm Roger Federer, and you are not." He had to have been confident despite not playing in five weeks, since he had won in Dubai in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2007 -- and lost in the final in 2006.

This would be his first appearance since losing to Novak Djokovic, the man most people peg as the next No. 1 player in the world (the confident Djokovic is no doubt one of those people). It was the Swiss' first chance to remind his rivals who runs the tour. Instead, Murray was only reminded that Federer's forehand occasionally disappears for games at a time.

Perhaps you're not worried about the Murray match, but something else? You're concerned that Federer has a long year ahead of him. He's scheduled to play more tournaments than usual, plus the Olympic Games in Beijing. He also has more good players to contend with than at any other point in his career. In four years as the No. 1 player in the world, Federer hasn't had to overcome a lot of obstacles at one time. He's had no season-ending injuries, no personal tragedies and no consistent threats on the tour other than Rafael Nadal on clay and, the past two years, Nadal at Wimbledon.

In the next two years, he'll face adversity, in the form of Djokovic, Nadal, Murray and maybe, just maybe, a player like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, wherever he goes. He'll have to worry more about injury as he ages. He'll have to worry about losing motivation or confidence if he loses a few more matches. He'll have to deal with the pressure of being two major titles away from Pete Sampras' record of 14 -- so close, but still quite far away considering how abruptly a dominant tennis career can end (a 25-year-old John McEnroe won two majors in 1984 but couldn't win another one in his final eight years on the tour).

Federer has a lot on his mind, and a lot left to accomplish, but there's no cause for worry. In tennis, confidence comes and goes quickly. Remember how things looked in November? Federer dominated his last three matches at the Masters Cup and Djokovic ended the year with five consecutive losses and seemed destined for a slump in 2008.

Andy Murray wasted no time derailing Roger Federer's hopes of getting back on track in Dubai.
A little more than three months later, Djokovic is the Australian Open champion and taken seriously when he makes absurd comments, like: "Considering the results this year, I expected Murray to win." No doubt, Murray was going to have a chance, but Djokovic expected Murray to win? Really? What results was he looking at? Couldn't have been that first-round loss Murray suffered at the Australian Open to Tsonga. Maybe it was his first-round loss to Robin Haase, ranked No. 94 in the world, in Rotterdam a few weeks ago. A convincing performance indeed.

There was a lot to dislike about the way Federer played against Murray. He returned terribly (he didn't win a single point against Murray's first serve in the third set, 0-for-14) and he sprayed a lot of forehands. He was aced 10 times -- a credit to Murray but rare against Federer (Andy Roddick usually won't ace Federer that often in three sets).

Still, there was a lot to like, too. Federer frequently attacked the net, as he did in Shanghai last year. He served well in the first and third sets. He seemed to move well, which wasn't the case by the end of the Australian Open. Why doubt that he'll return to the form he had just a few months ago? He's had cold streaks before and come out of them just fine. Remember Guillermo Canas and Filippo Volandri? Canas beat Federer twice last year and Volandri beat him once. By the end of 2007, did those losses mean anything at all?

While the early loss in Dubai deprived Federer of a few useful warm-up matches leading up to Indian Wells, it might also help him. He can now fly to the United States sooner than he might have planned for the Sampras exhibition next week. Last year, Federer lost his first match at Indian Wells, in the second round, after winning it the previous three seasons. He stands to gain a lot of ranking points if he does well. He could gain a few more in Miami, where he lost in the fourth round. If he wins both tournaments and performs well at Estoril, Portugal, where he didn't play last year, he'll have a cushion over Nadal in the rankings that the Spaniard won't be able to top without a Federer flop at Roland Garros or Wimbledon, or a sensational hard-court season from Nadal (which has yet to happen). Djokovic has a lot of points to defend in the coming weeks, too, and he's still 1,300 points behind Federer.

If Sampras double-bagels Federer at their exhibition Monday night, maybe then Federer fans will have something to worry about. Otherwise, remember that it's only March. You might end up remembering this season as the best of Federer's career.

Tom Perrotta is a senior editor at Tennis Magazine.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Eden
#1,059 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

Simple answer to all this:

Murray and Djokovic are better than anyone Federer faced 03-07 apart from Nadal. Arguably they are not more talented than Nalbandian and Safin but they have made more of themselves than those two. Roddick is not a bad player (although his game was made worse by the changes he made to it post 2004 to beat Fed) but not as good as Murray/ Djokovic.

Having said that, Federer over the course of his career has not faced weaker opposition than anyone else. I remember in 05 ish all the Sampras fans were saying Fed was only winning because the opposition was weak. But I don't think Hewitt, Roddick, Safin, Nalbandian were any worse than the 1990s players apart from Sampras/ Agassi. In fact Hewitt and Safin were both crushing Sampras towards the end of his career.

Arguably the players who have faced the toughest competition are Murray/ Djokovic who were starved of slams early on by Federer/ Nadal. But even this will even out over time because the generation after them is completely useless, much much worse than Hewitt/ Roddick/ Safin. So later on in their careers once Fed (age) and Nadal (hospital) are gone, they will have all the Slams to themselves.
 
#1,064 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

Lozlles. gonzalez makes one slam final and suddenly he defines an era. i think one fails to grasp the concept that there was a broader field in prime fed era. now we have four players who have a monopoly on most big titles, including past it fed at number one which completely defeats your argument alone. tennis has changed as a result of feeders dominance and all you can seethrough tinted glasses is super novak saving tennis. Besides, tennis was far better to watch before ball bouncing and grunting became normal regardless of what era is 'stronger'
 
#1,065 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

Of course, another very obvious point is that if the current era is so strong, why do we have the oldest Wimbledon champion since the 1970s and the second oldest world no 1 in the Open Era? Hardly a ringing endorsement for Djokovic, Murray, Nadal.
 
#1,066 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

Of course, another very obvious point is that if the current era is so strong, why do we have the oldest Wimbledon champion since the 1970s and the second oldest world no 1 in the Open Era? Hardly a ringing endorsement for Djokovic, Murray, Nadal.
Because the current #1 is the GOAT.
 
#1,071 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

Of course, another very obvious point is that if the current era is so strong, why do we have the oldest Wimbledon champion since the 1970s and the second oldest world no 1 in the Open Era? Hardly a ringing endorsement for Djokovic, Murray, Nadal.
In the history of tennis' Open Era, only 6 players have achieved 3 slams with multiple masters in the same year.
Three of them are playing right now and are sharing slams. That is a testament of how special the current top players are.

At Federer's peak, all he faced as a threat was baby Nadal and a lot of mugs.


Ok now we getting some where.
Now I can also claim that Murray and del-po is a joke from the current generation.
Murray only won 1 set in GS. And del-po he is 13-2 against.
So I can also say this era is a joke apart from old nadull n gluten free Novak.
For federer that is.
The only joke is Federer losing to 34 year old Haas and washed up Roddick who can't even get a first serve in anymore.
 
#1,078 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

In the history of tennis' Open Era, only 6 players have achieved 3 slams with multiple masters in the same year.
Three of them are playing right now and are sharing slams. That is a testament of how special the current top players are.

At Federer's peak, all he faced as a threat was baby Nadal and a lot of mugs.




The only joke is Federer losing to 34 year old Haas and washed up Roddick who can't even get a first serve in anymore.
if federer faced baby nadal , nole had to wait that nadal and federer low are levels too , he faced a past peak federer with 30 years old and he was defeated by him in roland garros and by miracle in the us open he could escape from roger with two matchpoints and 0-2 in sets.

nadal wassn`t the same level of 2010 and nole was very lucky because nadal arrived to the australian open very hungry for complete the "rafa slam" and with all the momentum of a great 2010 season incluiding his victory over nole in the us open final with many many confidecne , BUT nadal injury against ferrer gifted the chance to not face that very good and confidence nadal ( he was playing a very good australian open until his injury ) in the final , if nadal would beat nole in that australian open maybe all the great year of nole and his confidence would not happen.

if you talk about lucky , you need too see the things good
 
#1,080 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

if federer faced baby nadal , nole had to wait that nadal and federer low are levels too , he faced a past peak federer with 30 years old and he was defeated by him in roland garros and by miracle in the us open he could escape from roger with two matchpoints and 0-2 in sets.

nadal wassn`t the same level of 2010 and nole was very lucky because nadal arrived to the australian open very hungry for complete the "rafa slam" and with all the momentum of a great 2010 season incluiding his victory over nole in the us open final with many many confidecne , BUT nadal injury against ferrer gifted the chance to not face that very good and confidence nadal ( he was playing a very good australian open until his injury ) in the final , if nadal would beat nole in that australian open maybe all the great year of nole and his confidence would not happen.

if you talk about lucky , you need too see the things good
Novak didn't have to wait for anything. Novak started beating Federer in 2007, when he was 20 years old and Federer was 26. He made the USO final in 2007 and won the AO 2008 beating Federer on the way to the title. The problem for Novak was physical; he always had the game to be successful.
 
#1,067 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

This thread is a year older than the Maestro's twin daughters. Perhaps when the girls enter their second or third school year the decline poll might be relevant. Tough luck for fans who can't stomach the natural superiority of a genius.
 
#1,075 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

People throwing names around, numbers, records etc etc.

Shows how members of this forum don't know a thing about tennis because they can't judge the greatness of an era by analysing the performances themselves.
 
#1,076 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

Claim #1 Federer's peaked in a weak era.

Claim #2 Federer was only dominant because he was playing in a weak era.

Proving claim one does not prove claim two.

That's the problem with all these 'weak era' debates. If Federer wasn't tested, because he faced weak opposition, then how are we supposed to know what he was capable of in the first place?
 
#1,081 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

Claim #1 Federer's peaked in a weak era.

Claim #2 Federer was only dominant because he was playing in a weak era.

Proving claim one does not prove claim two.

That's the problem with all these 'weak era' debates. If Federer wasn't tested, because he faced weak opposition, then how are we supposed to know what he was capable of in the first place?
Maybe Fed was so much better than the competition that he made them seem weak by comparison. If he hadn't been around the rest wouldn't have appeared so weak because they would have been beating each other.
 
#1,085 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

yes , but federer in the semis of 2008 was not in his best level and tsonga defeated nadal in semis too , he was a bit of lucky too.

he had to wait until 2011.

this year he lost matches against mugs like isner or tipsarevic , del potro in his worst surface and after a very hard and long match against federer , could defeat nole in two sets........even hewitt or 34 years old haas were capable to won a set.
 
#1,088 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

Djokovic gained a lot more points while Federer was absent in 2012 than the opposite.

Federer absent in MC and Toronto = 1600 points for Nole
Djokovic absent from Doha, Rotterdam and Halle = 740 points for Fed, so i don't see the point here

If you look about the 52 lasts week, you add Basel, 500 points more for Fed = still less than Djokovic

So, Greatness = big fail

F
 
#1,097 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

Old no knees nadull is a threat to the fishes of late. He he. Zzzzzzzz call me back if and when he wins anything of clay.. Nadull lost a lot to Novak but get real he lost to a lot more players over 2 years to not have a title of clay. Like Monfils, Kohlscriber melzer. Nadull is a clay courter who has been receiving PRP treatment since 2010 for his dodgy knees.
He is an early bloomer with a short shelf life.
 
#1,114 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

If everyone rotated answering to his/her posts, I wonder how long Greatness (lol) would continue to troll in here.
 
#1,165 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

If everyone rotated answering to his/her posts, I wonder how long Greatness (lol) would continue to troll in here.
 
#1,118 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

A word of advice to those talking badly about other players.

Talking Federer down does not make Djokovic a great player and vice versa.

Some of you people here remind me of religious zealouts who criticize evolution, thinking that that will prove them right.. It doesn't make any sense!

Novak is a great player, Roger is a great player, Rafa is a great player, end of story.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Nole fan
#1,120 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

Djokovic is not in the same league as nadal and Roger.

Roger and nadal are in the top 10 all time greats. Djokovic is one or two tiers below.

djokovic had a great 2011. Be happy for that because as we've seen so far in 2012 it won't be happening again. :wavey:
 
#1,122 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

Djokovic is not in the same league as nadal and Roger.

Roger and nadal are in the top 10 all time greats. Djokovic is one or two tiers below.

djokovic had a great 2011. Be happy for that because as we've seen so far in 2012 it won't be happening again. :wavey:
You're so arrogant, truth will come to bite you in the ass. :rolleyes:
Things change very quickly in tennis and Novak has been in almost every final this year, not what I would call a bad season. he already won AO, Miami and Toronto and could win USO very possibly, which would make his year better than Roger's or Rafa's. And he would still end nº1. So be careful what you wish for. :)
 
#1,132 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

And we thought Start da Game was fanatical. This guy Greatness makes SdG, SetSampras and mediter look like sane, rational fans - and that takes some doing! :haha:

PS: wasn't this thread supposed to be about Fed's "decline"? So why is Greatness being allowed to hijack the thread into a "weak era" debate thread for the past several days now?
 
#1,133 · (Edited)
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

Feds generation past the ultimate test in tennis defeat Nadull at RG in his Prime.
Novak n Murray n Del-po n cilic etc didn't .
" how many times nadull beat fed"
Do u understand tennis . Nadull is Clay GOAT , fed barely top 10. If at all.
It is nothing SPECIAL to beat fed on clay. You are going by the "name federer" not his game or level of play on that surface.
Do u think beating Sampras on clay , Lendl on grass , Borg on HC was such a Great achievement.
It should be based on the level of play. The AO conditions are similiar to RG as many RG champions are AO champions or do well in conditions that favor "attrition" . So nadull ownership is expected in lower bouncing slow surfaces.
So it takes nothing away but adds nothing because he could have a better resume if he had.
So credit for nadull for doing what was necessary.
 
#1,136 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

Why do people keep responding to this clueless guy is beyond me. He's obviously a troll or not very smart. Either way, he's not worth your time.
I tend to think he is a Federer fan trying to make Fed look good by failing miserably. I have tried to actertain this, but so far he has not been willing to admit to it. So either he's good, or he's really bad.
 
#1,140 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

Greatness playing the IF game if wasn't for Novak . Nadull won have 3 more slams is the argument.
If not for fed Roddick would have 5 slams.
What does that prove nothing. Nadull still hasn't win a title of clay even a 250/500 in MORE than 2 years.
 
#1,146 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Federer will drop to number 4 next year)

Greatness Peaking at the right time! got to hand it to him. he is definitely crushing the all time greats of MTF. Weak era this new batch of MTFs
 
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top