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  Topic Review (Newest First)
07-01-2014 11:20 PM
Sunflowerseed
Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

Indeed. This just shows that the players aged 20-25 are a step behind the players born in the previous few years, rather than just being about age. It happens. Amazing players aren't born at regular intervals.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MachineGun View Post
What is to be blamed about top 100 getting older: the game that has become super physical? A certain lack of will from this generations' youngsters? Both? Or is it simply a cycle?
Once Federer, Nadal, Novak, etc. retire, the average will decrease, a fortiori - the result of younger players taking control. The Big 4 is just too good for the rest of the field (or is the rest of the field mediocre? That's where the real debate must be), at the moment.
IMO, the overall age is getting older because players are retiring later. Injuries that used to lead to players throwing in the towel can be better managed these days. Players in general take better care of themselves, so they should be able to last longer. The increased prize money means more top players can afford their own physio, and there's a lot more to go around the rest.

Things like Novak's shoulder injury on Friday. He was able to head straight off and get an MRI on it, confirming there wasn't any damage. In the past, he'd have had to guess if could risk further injury by playing with it. Some players would play on when they shouldn't have.

I also think the Big 4 are 10-15 year's worth of top players all born within five years of each other.
07-01-2014 10:08 PM
Police of Mind
Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

So we've finally got another teenager in the top 100 (will be 66 after Wimbledon). So it's clearly not as impossible as some believe. Just need a few more players with titanium testicles.
12-04-2013 03:07 AM
Juz78
Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMarble View Post
Ok. Let's look at this dilemma from historical perspective. How rare is this current rise in age?

As it happens, I have made these graphs about men's slam winning ages for entire history of tennis:



You can notice trends from above as well... but it's little bit easier to see if we look at the same graph by decade:



As we can see, slam winning age appears to correlate with top 100 age graph and the rise since 90's is pretty identical.

However what is interesting is noticing that current slam winning age isn't high at all - it's pretty average historically speaking. So maybe this thread is much ado about nothing...
This /thread.
12-03-2013 12:31 PM
MrMarble
Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

Quote:
Originally Posted by MachineGun View Post
What is to be blamed about top 100 getting older: the game that has become super physical? A certain lack of will from this generations' youngsters? Both? Or is it simply a cycle?
My slam winning age stats in previous page would suggest that it's simply a normal cycle.

For example Rosewall was winning slams aged 35+ in early 1970's. After which in 80's we got the ALL-TIME 3 youngest slam winners in Chang, Becker and Wilander. Nadal is 5th youngest first time slam winner ever - winning slams in one's teens is an exception rather than the norm.
12-03-2013 12:15 PM
Ace Pounder
Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

What is to be blamed about top 100 getting older: the game that has become super physical? A certain lack of will from this generations' youngsters? Both? Or is it simply a cycle?
Once Federer, Nadal, Novak, etc. retire, the average will decrease, a fortiori - the result of younger players taking control. The Big 4 is just too good for the rest of the field (or is the rest of the field mediocre? That's where the real debate must be), at the moment.
12-03-2013 12:05 PM
MrMarble
Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

True. What I naturally meant was getting 503 500 heads OR MORE... The odds for that is 0.00000000000128375 aka roughly 1 in Trillion.
12-03-2013 11:29 AM
Litotes
Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMarble View Post
Well you have to get pretty lucky.

As an example, the odds to get 50.35% heads is one in trillion (10^12)...

That's roughly same odds as Donald Young winning French Open.
Pinpointing an exact result will always be unlikely. The odds of getting 500 000 heads and 500 000 tails is not much to write home about either.
12-03-2013 11:13 AM
MrMarble
Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

Well you have to get pretty lucky.

As an example, the odds to get 50.35% heads is one in trillion (10^12)...

That's roughly same odds as Donald Young winning French Open.
12-03-2013 05:02 AM
niff
Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMarble View Post
Not at all... I of course meant 50% rounded up. You can not throw million coins and get 51% heads...
Yes you can Both 0% and 100% heads are possible, with an infinitesimal (but existing) probability.
12-03-2013 04:42 AM
Litotes
Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kiedis View Post
Humans average age has increased, at least in developed countries. Why the average age of the top 100 has increased?

1. Because 'playstation generation' is not good enough.

2. Because sports medicine has developed greatly in recent years. Some years ago a lot of players abandoned early professional sport because injuries and left room for new players. Now modern sportive medicine is even able to recover retired players like Haas.

3. Because professionality since young ages allow pro athletes take care of his body and prolong his career. They now go to a nutritionist for advice often. Many travel with a physiotherapist and an expert in physical training. All its surroundings pro players is more professional now than it was 20 years ago.

4. Because in developed countries, which provide 90% of the tennis players, there was a serious decline in birth rate in the 90's, which influences in a smaller potential base.

5. Because young people now is not educated in the culture of effort.

6. Because mass media talked a lot some years ago about those psycho parents putting a lot of pressure on their children since very early age to success, scaring new parents to introduce their sons in competitive sports, especially in single sports like tennis.

7. Because childhood obesity and watching too much TV.

8. Because new generations are more interested in other sports than tennis. Skate, parkour, snow boarding were more cool and fun that the ancient tennis for kids of 90's.

And many other reasons.
.

All of these, except #8, apply to many sports. And yet I see no corresponding rise in average age everywhere.
12-02-2013 11:52 PM
MrMarble
Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

Ok. Let's look at this dilemma from historical perspective. How rare is this current rise in age?

As it happens, I have made these graphs about men's slam winning ages for entire history of tennis:



You can notice trends from above as well... but it's little bit easier to see if we look at the same graph by decade:



As we can see, slam winning age appears to correlate with top 100 age graph and the rise since 90's is pretty identical.

However what is interesting is noticing that current slam winning age isn't high at all - it's pretty average historically speaking. So maybe this thread is much ado about nothing...
12-02-2013 11:18 PM
MrMarble
Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Timot View Post
By "young players" I mean guys under 24.
OK. But we don't really have stats for that, do we...

Quote:
If we look few years back, guys at this age already had a much bigger success, so the question is why current young guns struggle more?
Well obviously Tomic doesn't equal Nadal, no matter circumstances.

Also you have to note that those same talented teens are playing still, of course that increases the average age, as they get older...

Quote:
It's really unlikely, that ALL those guys accidentally have bad talent, why the bunch born few years before accidentally had greater talent. So it's improbable, that's it's just a "lack of talent", as some MTF-ers claim.
I beg to differ...

What I tried to explain with these probability examples was that if there are normally only couple teens at the top then it really isn't strange at all if there are none. Even without boozing/girls or whatever the reason.

When it comes to top 100 average I believe current age is pretty normal historically speaking, in the looooong run.
12-02-2013 11:06 PM
MrMarble
Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

Quote:
Originally Posted by BackhandDTL View Post
M

Except that you quoted SliceAce and put my name on it, genius.

If you're attempting to suggest that my arguments are similar to his (which I didn't really read), you'll have to do more than that.
Oops, my bad. I guess your arguments were a bit similar since I mixed you two.

Quote:
Says the guy who just misused/neglected several basic laws of probability by suggesting that the probability of an event is not affected when taken in the aggregate.

Hint: Flipping a coin once and expecting heads is different than flipping it five times and expecting heads just once.
I was talking about percentages... the expected percentage stays always the same, 50% - while the probability distribution varies with amount of tries. Same applies with teens in top 100.
12-02-2013 10:52 PM
Kiedis
Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

Quote:
Originally Posted by BackhandDTL View Post
How is that relevant to this discussion? That still wouldn't change the fact that the average age of the top 100 has increased.
Humans average age has increased, at least in developed countries. Why the average age of the top 100 has increased?

1. Because 'playstation generation' is not good enough.

2. Because sports medicine has developed greatly in recent years. Some years ago a lot of players abandoned early professional sport because injuries and left room for new players. Now modern sportive medicine is even able to recover retired players like Haas.

3. Because professionality since young ages allow pro athletes take care of his body and prolong his career. They now go to a nutritionist for advice often. Many travel with a physiotherapist and an expert in physical training. All its surroundings pro players is more professional now than it was 20 years ago.

4. Because in developed countries, which provide 90% of the tennis players, there was a serious decline in birth rate in the 90's, which influences in a smaller potential base.

5. Because young people now is not educated in the culture of effort.

6. Because mass media talked a lot some years ago about those psycho parents putting a lot of pressure on their children since very early age to success, scaring new parents to introduce their sons in competitive sports, especially in single sports like tennis.

7. Because childhood obesity and watching too much TV.

8. Because new generations are more interested in other sports than tennis. Skate, parkour, snow boarding were more cool and fun that the ancient tennis for kids of 90's.

And many other reasons.
.
12-02-2013 10:49 PM
Timot
Re: Where are the teenagers ? (Top 100 getting older and older)

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMarble View Post
I repeat: Do you have figures for usual amount of teenagers in top 100?


Define "young players"?

Players usually peak at around 26, so it's perfectly normal that younger players do on average worse since they have not reached their peak yet.
By "young players" I mean guys under 24. If we look few years back, guys at this age already had a much bigger success, so the question is why current young guns struggle more? It's really unlikely, that ALL those guys accidentally have bad talent, why the bunch born few years before accidentally had greater talent. So it's improbable, that's it's just a "lack of talent", as some MTF-ers claim.
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