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Chances of winning in matches between Top 4 in all Grand Slams (Welcome Andy Murray!)

7K views 93 replies 43 participants last post by  pray-for-palestine-and-israel 
#1 · (Edited)
In every rivalry, what are the chances of each player to win in each GS?

August 2012 UPDATE: Murray added!
---------------------

Federer - Nadal
AO: 40-60
RG: 10-90
W: 60-40
USO: 75-25

Djokovic - Murray
AO: 65-35
RG: 75-25
W: 42-58
USO: 50-50

Federer - Murray
AO: 60-40
RG: 75-25
W: 68-32
USO: 56-44

Nadal - Djokovic
AO: 45-55
RG: 75-25
W: 45-55
USO: 40-60

Federer - Djokovic
AO: 45-55
RG: 45-55
W: 90-10
USO: 65-35

Nadal - Murray
AO: 60-40
RG: 95-5
W: 52-48
USO: 48-52
 
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#2 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

I like this question :)

Federer vs. Nadal
AO: 45-55
FO: 25-75
W: 45-55
USO: 52-48 (Need a Fedal USO match, hopefully this year :p)

Nadal vs. Djokovic
AO: 40-60
FO: 60-40 (Rafole FO final this year!!! Please go away Roger lol)
W: 55-45
USO: 35-65

Federer vs. Djokovic
AO: 40-60
FO: 52-48 (Last year's SF was epic, too bad Nole couldn't serve it out in 4th set to take it to a 5th :()
W: 65-35 (likewise, need to watch a Fedole Wimbledon match, again, hopefully this year in SF, Berdych and Tsonga ruined it the last 2 years :sad:)
USO: 55-45 (Last 2 years have been awesome, would love a Fedole USO final this year)
 
#3 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

Federer - Nadal
AO: 35-65
RG: 0.1-99.9
W: 30-70
USO: 45-55

Nadal - Djokovic
AO: 40-60
RG: 80-20
W: 55-45
USO: 35-65

Federer - Djokovic
AO: 30-70
RG: 65-35
W: 75-25
USO: 50-50
 
#4 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

Federer-Nadal
AO: 20-80
FO: 0.02-99.98
WB: 40-60
USO: 40-60

Nadal-Djokovic
AO: 45-55
FO: 52-48
WB: 50-50
USO: 40-60

Djokovic-Federer
AO: 55-45
FO: 50-50
WB: 40-60
USO: 51-49
 
#5 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

Why don't we add Murray?

Murray - Djokovic

AO: 35-75
RG: 20-80
WB: 60-40
USO: 45-55

Murray-Nadal:

AO: 35-65
FO: 0-100
WI: 10-90
USO: 30-70

Murray-Federer:

AO: 60-40
FO: 30-70
WI: 50-50
USO: 50-50
 
#6 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

Why don't we add Murray?

Murray - Djokovic

AO: 35-75
RG: 20-80
WB: 60-40
USO: 45-55

Murray-Nadal:

AO: 35-65
FO: 0-100
WI: 10-90
USO: 30-70

Murray-Federer:

AO: 60-40
FO: 30-70
WI: 50-50
USO: 50-50
Federer - Nadal
AO: 35-65
RG: 0.1-99.9
W: 30-70
USO: 45-55

Nadal - Djokovic
AO: 40-60
RG: 80-20
W: 55-45
USO: 35-65

Federer - Djokovic
AO: 30-70
RG: 65-35
W: 75-25
USO: 50-50
Bold = Classic case of living in denial.
 
#10 · (Edited)
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

My take:
________________

Federer - Nadal
AO: 15-85
RG: 0-100
W: 10-90
USO: 20-80

Nadal - Djokovic
AO: 40-60
RG: 70-30
W: 60-40
USO: 35-65

Federer - Djokovic
AO: 30-70
RG: 50-50
W: 100-0
USO: 45-55
__________________
 
#13 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

My take:
________________

Federer - Nadal
AO: 15-75
RG: 0-100
W: 10-90
USO: 20-80

Nadal - Djokovic
AO: 40-60
RG: 70-30
W: 60-40
USO: 35-65

Federer - Djokovic
AO: 30-70
RG: 50-50
W: 100-0
USO: 45-55
__________________
What happened with the remaining 10%? Or is that added to the one who Simon Reed doesn't predict to win
 
#15 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

What happened with the remaining 10%? Or is that added to the one who Simon Reed doesn't predict to win
Sorry, 15-85 :eek:. Simon Reed does not have permission to analyse these important stats.
 
#12 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

Right now basing on their current level

Federer-Nadal
AO:25-75
RG:0-100
W:20-80
UO:51-49

Djokovic-Nadal
AO:60-40
RG:51-49
W:51-49
UO:55-45

Murray-Nadal
AO:55-45
RG:0-100
W:35-65
UO:55-45

Federer-Djokovic
AO:40-60
RG:47-53
W:20-80
UO:52-48

Federer-Murray
AO:60-40
RG:75-25
W:45-55
UO:70-30

Djokovic-Murray
AO:52-48
RG:75-25
W:48-52
UO:60-40
 
#16 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

I like this thread, I feel like I am good at these odds predictions as I have won more than I have lost on betting so to speak, here it is:

Federer-Nadal

AO: 40-60
RG: 15-85
W: 55-45
US: 60-40

Nadal-Djokovic:

AO: 25-75
RG: 65-35
W: 50-50
UO: 30-70

Federer-Djokovic:

AO: 35-65
RG: 35-65
W: 80-20
UO: 50-50
 
#23 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

Federer-Nadal

AO: 40-60
RG: 15-85
W: 55-45
US: 60-40

Nadal-Djokovic:

AO: 25-75
RG: 65-35
W: 50-50
UO: 30-70

Federer-Djokovic:

AO: 35-65
RG: 35-65
W: 80-20
UO: 50-50
Murray-Federer

AO:35-65
RG:30-70
W: 25-75
UO:25-75

Murray-Nadal

AO:60-40
RG:10-90
W: 35-65
UO:55-45

Murray-Djokovic

AO:35-65
RG:35-65
W: 65-35
UO:45-55
The most realistic one... :yeah:
 
#18 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

Murray-Federer

AO:35-65
RG:30-70
W: 25-75
UO:25-75

Murray-Nadal

AO:60-40
RG:10-90
W: 35-65
UO:55-45

Murray-Djokovic

AO:35-65
RG:35-65
W: 65-35
UO:45-55
 
#26 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

Not including Murray because I dont consider him important enough in the big scheme of things.

Federer - Nadal
AO: 35-65
RG: 0-100
W: 45-55
USO: 50-50
I am actually being lenient to Fed here because...well, I am a fan what can I say. Actually, at this stage Nadal is likely to beat him everywhere including USopen too :sad:

Nadal - Djokovic
AO: 40-60
RG: 70-30
W: 65-35
USO: 35-65

Rafa remains favourite at RG until proven otherwise and I am convinced he remains better on grass too, Nole played his best Grass court match in the Wimbledon final and Nadal a ho-hum GS final by his standards. On HCs however, its no cigar for Raf anymore methinks, though he will keep running Novak close with his trademark fighting spirit.

Federer - Djokovic
AO: 40-60
RG: 45-55
W: 75-25
USO: 50-50

I know Novak has straight-setted Roger the last two AO semis, but the scoreline is really misleading there. Roger was leading by a break in 4 of those 6 sets IIRC. I also think had it been Roger-Nole in AO final this year and Nadal hadnt gatecrashed, Roger would have put stiff-Nole out of it. Just a personal feeling of course. On clay however, at this stage of their careers, Novak is favourite IMO, Roger RG histrionics from '11 notwithstanding. On grass, Fed remains the big favourite though and USO is really a toss-up. It shouldnt be if we consider how Roger should have beaten him the last two years also and been 5-0 but it is what it is. :shrug:

As a Fed fan, I am actually happy he still has some chances against guys 5, 6 years younger than him. Its impressive especially if you look at the rest of his generation and where they all are.
 
#27 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

Sounds funny

Federer-Nadal:
AO: 40-60
RG: 20-80
WB: 60-40
USO: 60-40

Nadal-Djokovic:
AO: 35-65
RG: 60-40
WB: 40-60
USO: 30-70

Federer-Djokovic:
AO: 40-60
RG: 60-40
WB: 65-35
USO: 45-55
 
#28 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

Federer-Nadal

AO: 40-60
RG: 15-85
W: 55-45
US: 60-40

Nadal-Djokovic:

AO: 40-60
RG: 60-40
W: 45-55
UO: 35-65

Federer-Djokovic:

AO: 35-65
RG: 40-60
W: 60-40
UO: 45-55
 
#29 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

I'm not going to give any '%' ... we are all just guessing... Fed, as a great player he is, is slowing down and it's normal considering his age. I believe that he could still snatch another slam ... Nole is in his prime right now, but still my feeling is that the top 3 guys can still beat one another on any given day which is actually good for tennis.

As much as I like Murray, he really shouldn't be in this conversation before he actually wins a major. I do not understand some posters here claiming that Murray is a better player on grass than Djoko, when Djokovic is the one who won Wimbledon ... but suit yourself.
 
#30 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

As much as I like Murray, he really shouldn't be in this conversation before he actually wins a major. I do not understand some posters here claiming that Murray is a better player on grass than Djoko, when Djokovic is the one who won Wimbledon ... but suit yourself.
Well said actually.
 
#31 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

Federer vs Nadal

AO: 30-70
RG: 10-90
W: 30-70
USO: 35-65

Anyone thinking Federer is favorite or even with Nadal at any Slam at this point in their careers is seriously deluded. Nadal is clearly the better player today and he has a match-up advantage.

Federer vs Djokovic

AO: 30-70
RG: 45-55
W: 50-50
USO: 40-60

Djokovic vs Nadal

AO: 65-35
FO: 40-60
W: 60-40
USO: 65-35

These two are clearly a level above Federer at the moment, and Djokovic a level above Nadal until the latter can reverse the trend.

Federer is the third best player at the moment, but the top 2 are far above him at the moment. Just remember that Nadal and Djokovic became the first men to play three Slam finals in a row against each other.

Federer has chances vs both, but he isn't the favorite against either.
 
#32 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

Nadal-Federer:
AO: 60-40
RG- 95-5
W- 50-50
USO- 55-45

Djokovic-Federer:
AO: 70-30
RG: 45-55
W: 40-60
USO: 55-45

Djokovic-Nadal:
AO: 55-45
RG: 20-80
W: 45-55
USO: 60-40

Murray-Federer:
AO: 50-50
RG: 20-80
W: 35-65
USO: 40-60

Nadal-Murray:
AO: 55-45
RG: 100-0
W: 60-40
USO: 55-45

Djokovic-Murray:
AO: 60-40
RG: 65-35
W: 50-50
USO: 55-45
 
#35 · (Edited)
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

Federer - Nadal
AO: 40 - 60
RG: 5 - 95
W: 50 - 50*
USO: 65 - 35**

Nadal - Djokovic
AO: 30 - 70
RG: 60 - 40
W: 45 - 55
USO: 35 - 65

Federer - Djokovic
AO: 40 - 60***
RG: 60 - 40
W: 65 - 35****
USO: 50 - 50


*Federer is not as dominant as he was at his prime (2003-07), and that's evident on grass (SLOWED-DOWN grass that is...).
** It's hard to say since they have never met. But I think the surface would allow Federer to play more comfortably against Nadal.
*** Djokovic is just too hard to beat on the AO.
**** Needs to be seen; but I think Djokovic's game wouldn't hurt Roger's on grass, even slowed down.
 
#36 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

^^ 70-30 for Nadal-Djokovic on AO seems inverted.

For me:

Federer-Nadal
AO: 30-70
RG: 10-90
Wimbledon: 50-50
USO: 60-40

Djokovic-Nadal
AO: 70-30
RG: 40-60
Wimbledon: 60-40
USO: 80-20

Federer-Djokovic
AO: 30-70
RG: 60-40
Wimbledon: 80-20
USO: 50-50
 
#37 · (Edited)
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

^^ 70-30 for Nadal-Djokovic on AO seems inverted.
It was, and as soon as I read my mistake, I edited my post. Haha! :D

And I see we agree on almost everything. But do you really think Djokovic is better against Nadal at the US Open than at the AO? For curious reasons, Nadal has proven he was better against Nole at the US Open than at the AO.
 
#38 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

Nadal-Federer:
AO: 60-40
RG- 95-5 nostalgia for 2009 federer.
W- 60-40
USO- 60-40

Djokovic-Federer:
AO: 99-1
RG: 70-30 luck isn't the same as superiority.
W: 70-30

USO: 99-1
last year's Djoker
injury caused the federer confidence boost.


Djokovic-Nadal:
AO: 70-30
RG: 50-50
W: 60-40
USO: 60-40

Murray-Federer:
AO: 50-50
RG: 40-60
W: 40-60
USO: 50-50

Nadal-Murray:
AO: 69-31
RG: 100-0
W: 70-30
USO: 70-30

Djokovic-Murray:
AO: 79-21
RG: 99-1
W: 70-30
USO: 75-25

because djoker has less confidence and enjoys sliding on
clay and grass, he needs to adjust better.
 
#41 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

Do people really think Federer will defeat Djokovic that easy at Wimbledon??

Federer couldn't reach the Semis in the last two years, and Djokovic is the defending champion. Just sayin'.
 
#45 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

Nadal v Federer

AO ~ 80-20
RG ~ 100-0
W ~ 70-30
USO ~ 60-40

Nadal v Djokovic

AO ~ 30-70
RG ~ 50-50
W ~ 40-60
USO ~ 30-70

Federer v Djokovic

AO ~ 30-70
RG ~ 40-60
W ~ 50-50
USO ~ 50-50
 
#48 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

I'd like to update some choices from what I saw in the last months.

Federer - Nadal
W: 60-40

Nadal - Djokovic
RG: 80-20
W: 55-45

Federer - Djokovic
RG: 48-52
W: 80-20
:worship: :haha:

classic, first you tell me I'm living in denial for giving Nadal 80-20 at RG against Djokovic, and now you're copying my Nadal-Djokovic percentages. Oh well, better late than never, you'll soon copy my Fedal and Fedole ones as well :yeah:
 
#53 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

Why are most Nadal fans so biased? Is it the massive chip on their shoulder at the fact that their player plays ugly 1d tennis?

Anyways I am a Fed fan, that being said

Nadal v Federer

AO ~ 62-38
RG ~ 85-15
W ~ 40-60
USO ~ 40-60

Nadal v Djokovic

AO ~ 40-60
RG ~ 60-40
W ~ 45-55
USO ~ 35-65

Federer v Djokovic

AO ~ 45-55
RG ~ 50-50
W ~ 60-40
USO ~ 50-50

Notice how my picks aren't ridiculous?
 
#54 ·
Re: Chances of winning in matches between Federer-Nadal-Djokovic in all Grand Slams

Why are most Nadal fans so biased? Is it the massive chip on their shoulder at the fact that their player plays ugly 1d tennis?

Anyways I am a Fed fan, that being said

Nadal v Federer

AO ~ 62-38
RG ~ 85-15
W ~ 40-60
USO ~ 40-60

Nadal v Djokovic

AO ~ 40-60
RG ~ 60-40
W ~ 45-55
USO ~ 35-65

Federer v Djokovic

AO ~ 45-55
RG ~ 50-50
W ~ 60-40
USO ~ 50-50

Notice how my picks aren't ridiculous?
They are though. Federer isn't the favorite against Nadal in any Slam. The Slam H2H is 8-2 Nadal if I'm not mistaken (with the most recent Federer victory coming in 2007) and at this point in their careers Nadal is simply the better player too, with better overall results in all Grand Slams in the past 2/3 years.

Any Federer vs Nadal Slam match at this point, Federer is clearly the underdog.
 
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