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Masterclass Tennis

Masterclass Tennis
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Dubai 2012 Final - Pre-match analysis: Federer vs. Murray

Posted 03-06-2012 at 11:28 PM by masterclass
Roger Federer [3](SUI) vs. Andy Murray [4](GBR)
Location: Dubai Tennis Stadium in Garhoud, Centre Court
Time: 7:00 pm (GMT+4), 2 am in Melbourne, AUS, 3 pm in London, GBR, 10 am in New York, USA
Weather forecast: Partly cloudy - 22 C./72 F. Humidity 51% Wind: 27 kph/17 mph
Surface: Outdoor Hard, Decoturf II (Pro DecoTurf - base CPR: Category 5) Actual Est.Category 4 (42)

H2H:
-Dubai: Murray 1-0 in the 1st round in 2008. After the Australian Open, Federer was diagnosed as having had mono, and was unable to practice as needed prior to Dubai.
-Overall: Murray: 8-6. Sets: Federer 19-17 Majors: Federer: 2-0 (AO, USO)
---Hard Court: Murray: 8-6 Sets: Federer 19-17 Majors: Federer: 2-0 (AO, USO)
-----Faster/Low Bounce: Federer: 5-3 Sets: Federer: 13-7 Majors: Federer 1-0 (USO)
-----Slower/High Bounce: Murray: 5-1 Sets: Murray :10-6 Majors: Federer: 1-0 (AO)


Class:
-Federer: Career high [1] - 2011. Current [1]. 16 majors. (AO-4,USO-5,Wim-6 RG-1) and 7 major finals.
-Murray: Career high [2] 2009. Current [4] 0 majors. 3 major finals


Dubai past performances:

-Federer:
8 appearances - 4 wins 2 Finals.
Best: 2004 - Won, beating Feliciano Lopez 4-6, 6-1, 6-2 Combined rankings played: 169 (Top: 20)
Worst: 2007 Lost in 1st round to Andy Murray 7-6(6), 3-6, 4-6 Combined rankings played: 11 (Top: 11)
Current to date: 4 matches Sets: 8-0 Games: 52-36 Combined rankings played: 99 (Top: 10)

-Murray

3 appearances - 2 QF (1 Withdrawal), 1 R16
Best: 2008 Lost in QF to Nikolay Davidenko [5] 5-7, 4-6 Combined rankings played: 36 (Top: 5)
Worst: 2010 Lost R16 to Janko Tipsarevic [39] 6-7(3), 6-4, 4-6 Combined rankings played: 150 (Top: 39)

Current to date: 4 matches Sets: 8-1 Games: 54-35 Combined rankings played: 309 (Top: 1)

Surface preferences:

-Federer:

All court, prefers faster lower bouncing conditions, but still excellent on clay except against the very best. 71 titles: 16 majors 18 Masters, 6 WTF, 49 titles on hard, 9 Clay, 11 Grass, 2 carpet. Carpet: .725 Grass: .872 Hard: .831 Clay: .762

-Murray:

All court, prefers faster conditions, but good on clay. 19 titles on hard, 2 Grass, 1 Carpet. Carpet: .727 Grass: .803 Hard: .780 Clay: .594

Mental characteristics:

-Federer: Fights well, succumbs to the players with high mental strength on surfaces that favor them (ala Nadal) and under pressure. Has been known to lose focus on occasion, especially last year when ahead. Can also rise to a higher level than anyone in the game today (especially in his favored conditions) and be unplayable in patches. Has battled well as of late, but it was not against the top.

-Murray: Good fighter. Sometimes lets mind wander, talking to himself, to his box, etc. Has succumbed to pressure against top players, especially in majors, but has steadily improved mental strength of late with Ivan Lendl in his corner.

Physical characteristics:

-Federer: Age: 30 Height: 185 cm/85 kg (6'1/187 lb) - Most recent injury - strained back in Doha forced withdrawal.

-Murray: Age: 24 Height/Weight: 190 cm/84 kg (6'3/185 lb.) Appears to carry various niggling injuries, mostly to lower extremities, knees.

Other: Federer is the better mover, and the better server overall. Murray may return better, but Federer has been returning fairly well of late. Serve and volley play should favor Federer.
confidence since reaching #1 is his biggest asset now. Murray serves hard but is prone to double fault in tight situations.

Predicted winner: Federer. H2H results on faster lower bouncing surfaces favor him in Dubai this year (I'm throwing out the Dubai H2H result because of Federer's mono), plus Federer is in great recent form in faster conditions, and probably most important, his draw here was tougher than Mr. Murray's against more good fast court players. Again, the service should favor Mr. Federer. If he can serve as well as he did against Lopez, then Murray will be up against it. If he serves more like he did against Del Potro, Murray will have a better chance. Murray's only chance is to serve exceptionally well, and not break down mentally and put pressure on Federer as much as possible. In tight situations like a tiebreaker, or break points, Federer's far higher class level should make the difference. Murray's job will be to not let it get that close and to stay on top of Federer on the scoreline if he can.

Statistical source: http://www.atpworldtour.com
Weather forecast courtesy of http://www.wunderground.com


Respectfully,
masterclass
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