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Hotzenplotz's ATP bets Blog

Blog giving opinions on the imho best bets of the day
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Bets for Monday, February 20

Posted 02-20-2006 at 03:44 AM by Hotzenplotz
In this blog I will more or less regularly write something on bets I like. I will choose bets that I deem value, these may be anything from short priced favourites to unknown dogs. Stated odds will be from Betfair. I will not edit my posts as this would not make me very credible. If there is anything I'd like to add (like missing odds), I will write a comment or a new post. Comments are obviously always welcome.

Just some opinions on Monday's first round matches:

Rusedski (1.58) to beat Vik: Rusedski clearly still has to find his best form after just playing his first tournament this year. However, Vik's results have been dire after his 5-setter versus Hewitt in Melbourne. Rusedski is a class better than Vik on fast surfaces such as that in Rotterdam and will likely serve his way past Vik.
Sluiter (probaby about 1.40) to beat Meffert: Meffert simply doesn't belong there. He has been very lucky to play poor opposition in the qualifiers and usually can be happy if he qualifies for main draws of challengers. While Sluiter hasn't set the world on fire in the recent past, his results have clearly been better than Meffert's and he should win comfortably in front of his home crowd.
Davydenko (1.2) to beat Hernych: That's certainly not a brave tip, but a look at Hernych's recent results shows he's far from his best. While Davydenko shouldn't have lost to Korolev last week, his form is altogether quite OK. Hernych leads the h2h, but that match was played on a slower outdoor hardcourt rather than on a quick indoor court Hernych seems to struggle on.

Garcia-Lopez (probaby about 1.70) to beat Saulnier: This is not a cert and a few months ago I would have gone with Saulnier here. However, his results this year have been truly disgusting and, while Garcia-Lopez is no specialist on this surface, I have to go with his current form which is better than Saulnier's even if his run at Delray Beach should not be overrated.
Malisse (about 1.40) to beat Phau: Whilst Malisse has had a really good year 2006 so far, Phau hasn't beaten any half decent in-form player. His quarterfinal in San Jose may look good at first sight but he actually only beat Saulnier who could lose to anyone these days and Wilson who shouldn't play in the main draw of an ATP event. This is just a complete mismatch and I expect an easy match for Malisse.
Carlsen to beat Luczak (have to wait for prices to confirm that pick): Carlsen has shown decent results this year and just likes the fast indoor courts better than Luczak. On fast courts I would rate Luczak in the same category as Dlouhy and Hernych, who recently lost to Carlsen.

Costa do Sauipe:
Marin to beat Mello (have to wait for prices to confirm that pick): As Marin isn't exactly a top player, this is a somewhat risky tip. However, Mello's recent results could have hardly been worse, his last win (not including the Davis Cup where he beat players that do not play on ATP tour level) dating back to the US Open. Marin is here the bet based on form.
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Re: Bets for Monday, February 20

The stake of each bet will be 1 point unless otherwise noted. Profit/loss computations will include 5% commission on all profits, i.e. the maximum commission on Betfair.
Posted 02-21-2006 at 02:06 AM by Hotzenplotz Hotzenplotz is offline
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Re: Bets for Monday, February 20

Not a good start to the week with Sluiter retiring when en route to an easy win, Saulnier winning the big points in an even match with Garcia-Lopez, and Mello destoying Marin in the final set.

Rusedski defeats Vik 6-3 7-5 +0.58 pts (profits stated here before commssion)
Sluiter loses to Meffert 4-2 retired (bet void as first set not completed) 0 pts
Davydenko defeats Hernych 6-3 6-3 +0.2 pts
Garcia-Lopez loses to Saulnier 3-6 4-6 -1.0 pts
Malisse defeats Phau 6-1 6-4 +0.34 pts
Carlsen defeats Luczak 7-6 6-3 +0.69 pts
Marin loses to Mello 6-7 6-3 0-6 -1.0 pts
total p/l after commission: -0.2805 pts
Posted 02-21-2006 at 02:25 AM by Hotzenplotz Hotzenplotz is offline

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