ATP Tour Betting '07 - Week 1 & 2 [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

ATP Tour Betting '07 - Week 1 & 2

Breaker
01-08-2007, 10:13 AM
*** 2007 ***

ATP Tour Betting - Week 1 & 2


http://www.unicef.org/corporate_partners/images/atp_logo.gif


Tournaments: Auckland & Sydney
Date: 1st - 14th January, 2007


Welcome back guys, once again I'm hoping to provide ATP Tour selections and write-ups on a continual basis, hopefully with the same success as in previous years. Over the past two years I have finished the season with a return on investment over 20%, with 2006 being my most successful year, finishing the year with a ROI slightly over 25%. For those who are interested, I don't use any specific systems nor do I believe in following specific trends, I just analyze each match individually, on its own merits, drawing from what I have uncovered over my years of being involved in tennis. Having said that, I do like to keep a tight record of all betting action as I believe money management and discipline play a crucial role in long term success.

I'll be using a 1-10 unit staking system, with the average play being approximately 3-5 units. Feel free to offer any support, whether it be constructive criticism or just a few words of wisdom. I'm always willing to gain experience from other punters and hopefully together we can have a profitable year.

Good luck and happy punting
Breaker

sports freak
01-08-2007, 10:37 AM
Good luck Breaker,welcome back mate!!Hope ur studies went well!!!

Breaker
01-08-2007, 12:16 PM
Thanks freak, all the best for the year mate

Keeping Records

Just thought I'd post the spreadsheet I use to keep track of my betting as someone may find it useful. Unfortunately this forum doesn't allow Excel documents to be attached to posts so you will have to download the file from HERE (http://www.filefactory.com/file/670d24/)


Screenshots:

http://img165.imageshack.us/img165/3237/titlebx6.jpg

http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/6045/recordskv6.jpg

http://img383.imageshack.us/img383/2562/othersh2.jpg


Cheers
Breaker

Breaker
01-08-2007, 01:48 PM
Early thoughts:

Agustin Calleri over JM Del Potro @ $2.24

JMDPís success at Adelaide should come as no surprise to those who have followed the tour closely over the past year or two, however, $1.74 favoritism seems to be a slight overreaction by the betting public as a result of the 18 year oldís recent results.

After being plagued by injuries for the latter part of last year Calleri should take to the court the healthiest weíve seen him in months as he blamed poor tournament scheduling and lack of breaks for his injury woes of í06. 2006 wasnít all bad for the 30 year old Argentine beating the likes of Kiefer, Ferrer, Moya & Malisse on hardcourt and making the New Haven final and the Miami TMS QF where he lost to eventual finalist Ivan Ljubicic.

Most likely taking the more mature and experienced player who (from memory) started out at around $1.80 favourite with the bookies before easing out to $2.25+


Other matches under review include:

Monaco over King-Turner @ $1.23


Cheers
Breaker

IvŠn
01-08-2007, 02:23 PM
Very Professional.

Nice to meet you

Now i agree with the calleri prediction but be weary, this is a all argentine affair with rivalry set to play a crucial role.

Now, i will go with calleri but only with small stakes as i feel it could go to a deciding set.

Breaker
01-08-2007, 10:23 PM
Very Professional.

Nice to meet you

Now i agree with the calleri prediction but be weary, this is a all argentine affair with rivalry set to play a crucial role.

Now, i will go with calleri but only with small stakes as i feel it could go to a deciding set.

Hey mate - thanks for the feedback

I also had slight concerns over the influence of an all argentine affair while going through the form of both players, however, I feel that it only increases my interest in taking Calleri. Not only has Agustin gone 9-1 in his last 10 all Argentine affairs but he has also stated numerous times his will to play as much davis cup tennis as possible. You would think it would be in his best interests to do well against his fellow countrymen in order to cement a spot in a talented DC team which has numerous avenues to go down in regards to which players make the squad. At a time where motivation (and tanking) often come into question I feel that this should not be of concern with Calleri today. However, issues such as weather, lack of matchplay and injury problems have resulted in a reduction of stake.


Agustin Calleri over JM Del Potro @ $2.24

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 1 Unit


Good luck guys
Breaker

Breaker
01-09-2007, 01:53 PM
Pending:

Agustin Calleri over JM Del Potro @ $2.24

Today's card:

I see very little value in today's card, however, one matchup has taken my eye.

Fernando Verdasco ($1.85) may be worth a look over fellow countryman Carlos Moya.

As would be expected, very few players who reach the semifinals and/or final in Chennai are able to back up the following week. Over the past four years only two players who reached the SF at Chennai have made it past the second round of the next weeks lead up tournaments. A sample of such instances are listed below.

Chennai Semi-finalists of ‘06

Stepanek (1st Rd exit)
Moya (2nd Rd exit)
Vliegen (1st Rd exit)
Ljubicic (Lost 1st two matches at Kooyong)

Chennai Semi-finalists of '05:

Moya (1st Rd exit)
Garcia Lopez (1st Rd exit)
Srichaphan (DNP)
Zib (1st Rd exit)

So far 2007’s Chennai semifinalists have proven no exception with Malisse, Nadal and Koubek playing minimal (if any) part in this weeks play and Moya needing a third set tiebreak to beat lowly ranked journeyman, Bourgeois. One would assume that going deep into the Sydney international isn't at the top of the aging Spaniard's priority list after a relatively successful opening tournament. In contrast Verdasco will be looking to build upon his solid start to the season after his straight sets win over Grosjean.

It must also be noted that during Moya's last seven appearances at this event he has only made it past the 2nd round once.

Overall, I will more than likely pass on this matchup, however, on a day where value is scarce, Verdasco comes across as a possible play.

Cheers
Breaker

IvŠn
01-09-2007, 02:12 PM
Once agains spanish pride is at stake in this match.

I have checked the head to head and moya seems to like playing verdasco with a 4-0 lead.

But, i have a rule with head to head records which is simple...Dont base your bets on it.

It must be stated that the last time these two played each other was in 2004. Verdasco seems to have developed into a qaulity player since then even though he had a dreadful end last season whereas Moya well what can be said about carlos?

He is on the verge of retiring and your point about chenai is a good one.

I think if both calleri and verdasco win later on we will be lucky as both matches are coin flips.

Sometimes you need abit of luck.

its.like.that
01-09-2007, 02:36 PM
:lol:

Welcome back BREAKER!!!!http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/images/smilies/party_time.gif

Just a word of advice, the "average odds" stat you have chosen to include is a rather inaccurate indicator of the odds you tend to select.

Only the odds of winning bets should be included, otherwise you could include a few players who are at 1000-1 to win the Aussie Open, and your average odds will be either double or triple digits.

For example, considering that your highest winning odds are 1.55, it is misleading to claim average odds of 1.68

Also, it would be more accurate if you weighted those odds according to the size of the bet. Again, this will limit the influence outliers may have on this "average odds" figure.

Your average winning odds would be 1.41 without weighting, or 1.38 with weighting.


PS. DON'T BREAK THE BANK!!! http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/images/smilies/wink.gif

PPS. Jump on Verdasco, don't be scared just because the odds are above 1.50

BOL http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/images/smilies/handshake.gif

IvŠn
01-09-2007, 02:41 PM
Verdasco price is leaning towards fave every hour.................

The bookies might even have him at 2/5 by the end of today

sports freak
01-09-2007, 09:57 PM
Once agains spanish pride is at stake in this match.

I have checked the head to head and moya seems to like playing verdasco with a 4-0 lead.

But, i have a rule with head to head records which is simple...Dont base your bets on it.

It must be stated that the last time these two played each other was in 2004. Verdasco seems to have developed into a qaulity player since then even though he had a dreadful end last season whereas Moya well what can be said about carlos?

He is on the verge of retiring and your point about chenai is a good one.

I think if both calleri and verdasco win later on we will be lucky as both matches are coin flips.

Sometimes you need abit of luck.

4-0 record was when Verdasco was trying to find his feet in tennis,Verdy should blow Old Man Moya away,but with a Spainish affair Verdy might want to make it close for his respected country men,insayin that Verdy should have no problems,but depends if Verdy is switched on,it look liked that in his last match!!

Breaker
01-10-2007, 02:00 AM
http://www.scommesse.it/foto/36814_callericlay1.jpg

Calleri wins 61 63

ATP Betting Record '07: 6-1, +8.35 Units (ROI 36.30%)

Nitefaery
01-10-2007, 02:16 AM
Hey breaker, do you know where you can download excel?

Breaker
01-10-2007, 02:22 AM
I currently have a small 0.50 unit play on Verdasco over Moya @ $1.763 from last night which I will leave as is as I don't have enough confidence in Verdasco's motivation nor do I feel the need to cancel the bet

http://img441.imageshack.us/img441/1529/untitledwt2.jpg

Cheers
Breaker

betowiec
01-10-2007, 02:25 AM
what's the point of this screen shot?

Breaker
01-10-2007, 02:32 AM
Hey breaker, do you know where you can download excel?

Hey Nitefaery,

I don't think Microsoft Excel itself can be downloaded (not legally anyway). I'm only aware of it coming bundled in the Microsoft Office package, however, you may be able to use Excel Viewer 2003 (Download Here (http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details.aspx?FamilyID=c8378bf4-996c-4569-b547-75edbd03aaf0&displaylang=EN)) instead of paying for MS Excel itself. Unfortunately I don't think this program allows you to edit your spreadsheets, only view and print them as the name suggests.

Somebody else may be able to shed some light on the topic as I'm not very familiar with the availablility of products such as Excel etc.

Cheers
Breaker

Breaker
01-10-2007, 05:36 AM
I currently have a small 0.50 unit play on Verdasco over Moya @ $1.763 from last night which I will leave as is as I don't have enough confidence in Verdasco's motivation nor do I feel the need to cancel the bet


ATP Betting Record '07: 6-2, +7.85 Units (ROI 33.40%)


Disappointing end to a successful day with Verdasco wasting 3 match points on his way to a 46 76(9) 63 loss

Mr Flamboyant
01-10-2007, 06:36 AM
Motivation should've been an advantage for Verdasco today .. afterall, Moya went deep in Chenai last week and didn't need the match practise nearly as much as his compatriot ..

That Spanish flea is now on my blacklist .. blew numerous match points and had the match for the taking after breaking back to lead 6-4, 5-4 in the second set ..

Breaker
01-10-2007, 08:19 AM
Motivation should've been an advantage for Verdasco today .. afterall, Moya went deep in Chenai last week and didn't need the match practise nearly as much as his compatriot ..

That Spanish flea is now on my blacklist .. blew numerous match points and had the match for the taking after breaking back to lead 6-4, 5-4 in the second set ..

I completely agree with you mate, this play was largely influenced by Moya's current situation (ie. backing up after Chennai) rather than on Verdasco's form or ability. Taking a volatile or mentally weak player such as Verdasco as favourite is something I rarely do, it's just a shame that I couldn't follow my own guidelines on this occasion. Also, I didn't mean to say I was concerned with Nando's motivation, this phrase was meant to explain that I had little confidence in Verdasco's mental strength etc. Sorry for the mix up.

Good luck for tomorrow mate
Breaker

Breaker
01-10-2007, 11:42 AM
Today's Card:

Interesting lineup in what may be my last betting day before the Australian Open kicks off on Monday. Liking the look of the following three plays:

Massu over Chela @ $2.20
Calleri over Serra @ $1.65
Rochus over Monaco @ $1.33

Although it's early days and much more analysis is needed before any plays are recommended I'm fairly confident that I will have at least one play for tomorrow before the end of the night. Any feedback is welcome.

Cheers
Breaker

Breaker
01-10-2007, 12:57 PM
Auckland R2 - Bet #1:

Olivier Rochus over Juan Monaco @ $1.333 - 3 Units
Pinnacle Sports

Slightly cynical of this selection as it seems very straightforward. Olivier Rochus is one of the more reliable players on tour when it comes to capping tennis, in that he rarely loses to those he is expected to beat and is more often than not beaten by upper echelon players. Juan Monaco is far from a top tier player and should pose very little threat to Rochus who seems to have taken a shining to the Auckland tournament where over the past three years he has established an 8-3 win/loss record, making the final in '05 and SF in '06. It may also be noted that Monaco called for treatment on his legs in yesterdays first round match against local journeyman King-Turner.

Overall, although I can't see Monaco taking the honors here I will not be staking any more than 3 units on the Belgian as we lead into the first week of a slam.

Good luck
Breaker

Breaker
01-10-2007, 01:46 PM
Auckland R2 (cont.):

Crossing Massu off the bet list unless I can get around $2.30-$2.40

Almost certainly having a small dabble on the $1.67 available on Calleri (1 unit or less) but will sit tight and see if better odds come up

Take it easy
Breaker

IvŠn
01-10-2007, 02:54 PM
Breaker you must take your own advice and back baghdatis.

Moya was on the verge of losing against verdasco..3 match points wasted.

Baghdatis to win

Breaker
01-11-2007, 12:47 AM
Overview:

Early celebrations after Calleri's straight sets win were short lived when Rochus served his way out of the tournament, losing 57 75 36

ATP Betting Record '07: 7-3, +5.51 Units (ROI 20.04%)

its.like.that
01-11-2007, 05:21 AM
Get on Marcos.

Breaker
01-11-2007, 07:32 AM
Get on Marcos.

Breaker you must take your own advice and back baghdatis.

Moya was on the verge of losing against verdasco..3 match points wasted.

Baghdatis to win

I will definitely be having a small go on the Cypriot, however I am reluctant to recommend this selection as I am just simply fading Moya

IvŠn
01-11-2007, 11:52 AM
a few days before a slam and i am betting on suppossed faves. I need to stop now.

Ancic, baggy and berdych are obviously much better players than their performances suggest but its my own fault.

I guess moya outfoxed us all.

I really felt that chenai fact that you brang to the table breaker was a good one.

but what can you do.

Breaker
01-11-2007, 01:41 PM
Auckland SF - Bet #1

Agustin Calleri over Tommy Robredo @ $2.63 - 1 Unit
Pinnacle Sports

Wasn't considering making any selections this deep into an Aussie Open lead up event however I couldn't resist backing one of the most underrated (and profitable) players currently on the tour. I see Calleri as great value here in what should be a 50-50 match. Robredo has had a relatively soft path to the SF in comparison to the Argentine and was far from impressive at his Hopman Cup outing earlier this year.

Cheers
Breaker

Breaker
01-12-2007, 11:54 AM
ATP Betting Overview - Week 1 & 2:


In a somewhat similar fashion to previous years, the opening fortnight of tennis action has provided a number of unpredicted results. As a result what started as a fantastic couple of weeks shortly drifted into mediocrity, fortunately I still managed to scrape out a handy +4.51 Unit profit.


ATP Betting Record '07: 7-4, +4.51 Units (ROI 15.82%)


J Johansson over Spadea @ $1.47 (3 Units) - WON
Djokovic over Guccione @ $1.31 (7 Units) - WON
Koubek over Malisse @ $3.00 (1 Unit) - LOST
Ferrer over Gaudio @ $1.55 (3 Units) - WON
Berdych x Baghdatis @ $1.33 (4 Units) - WON
Vliegen over Tipsarevic @ $1.39 (4 Units) - WON
Calleri over Del Potro @ $2.24 (1 Unit) - WON
Verdasco over Moya @ $1.76 (0.50 Units) - LOST
Rochus over Monaco @ $1.33 (3 Units) - LOST
Calleri over Serra @ $1.66 (1 Unit) - WON
Calleri over Robredo @ $2.63 (1 Unit) - LOST


Will be heading down to the Aussie Open for a fair chunk of the first week and may therefore have little time for writeups etc, will probably just post selections in daily threads if time permits.

Cheers
Breaker

Breaker
01-15-2007, 02:27 PM
Just got back from the tennis a couple of hours ago. Just the two bets on day 1, Udomchoke over Vassalo-Arguello and Mahut over Monaco

Today's card is fairly average although I will be taking Chela over Starace into Gaudio over Muller at combined odds of around $1.75. Other than that nothing much really takes my eye although I was leaning towards Santoro at reasonable odds of around $1.70

For now, I gotta go get some shut eye

Good luck with today's card guys
Breaker

adso
02-05-2007, 01:26 PM
No more updates?

itīs a shame cos I think you are a great punter!!!