NFL Week 17 [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

NFL Week 17

bad gambler
12-26-2006, 10:01 PM
I'm going to work through the different playoff scenarios today - key as it will determine the motivation levels of those teams still in the hunt and those who have already clinched a playoff spot

bad gambler
12-27-2006, 05:34 AM
Why do all the work when it's all there for you, www.nfl.com

AFC EAST DIVISION
New England has clinched division title.

N.Y. Jets clinch a playoff berth with:

1) NYJ win or tie, OR
2) CIN loss or tie + JAC loss or tie, OR
3) CIN loss or tie + TEN win, OR
4) DEN loss + JAC loss


AFC NORTH DIVISION
Baltimore has clinched division title.

Baltimore can clinch home-field advantage with:

1) BAL win + SD loss

Baltimore can clinch a first-round bye with:

1) BAL win or tie, OR
2) IND loss or tie

Cincinnati clinches a playoff berth with:

1) CIN win + NYJ loss, OR
2) CIN win + DEN loss + KC win


AFC SOUTH DIVISION
Indianapolis has clinched division title.

Indianapolis can clinch first-round bye with:

1) IND win + BAL loss

Tennessee clinches a playoff berth with:

1) TEN win + CIN loss or tie + DEN loss + KC win

Jacksonville clinches a playoff berth with:

1) JAC win + NYJ loss + CIN loss or tie + TEN loss or tie

AFC WEST DIVISION
San Diego has clinched division title and first-round bye.

San Diego can clinch home-field advantage with:

1) SD win or tie, OR
2) BAL loss or tie

Denver clinches a playoff berth with:

1) DEN win or tie, OR
2) KC loss or tie

Kansas City clinches a playoff berth with:

1) KC win + CIN loss or tie + DEN loss + TEN loss or tie


NFC EAST DIVISION
Dallas has clinched playoff berth.

Dallas can clinch division with:

1) DAL win + PHI loss or tie, OR 2) DAL tie + PHI loss

Philadelphia has clinched playoff berth.

Philadelphia can clinch division with:

1) PHI win, OR
2) DAL loss, OR
3) PHI tie + DAL tie

New York Giants can clinch playoff berth with:

1) NYG win + NYG clinch strength of victory tiebreaker over GB, OR
2) NYG win + GB loss or tie, OR
3) NYG tie + GB loss or tie + STL loss or tie + ATL loss or tie + CAR loss or tie, OR
4) GB loss + STL loss + ATL loss + CAR loss

NFC NORTH DIVISION
Chicago has clinched home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

Green Bay can clinch playoff berth with:

1) GB win + NYG win + GB clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over NYG, OR
2) GB win + NYG loss or tie + STL loss or tie, OR
3) GB win + NYG loss or tie + CAR win, OR
4) GB win + NYG loss or tie + ATL win, OR
5) GB tie + NYG loss + STL loss + ATL loss or tie + CAR loss or tie

NFC SOUTH DIVISION
New Orleans has clinched first-round bye.

Carolina can clinch playoff berth with:

1) CAR win + NYG loss or tie + GB loss or tie, OR
2) CAR tie + NYG loss + GB loss + STL loss or tie + ATL loss or tie

Atlanta can clinch playoff berth with:

1) ATL win + CAR loss or tie + GB loss or tie + NYG loss or tie, OR
2) ATL tie + CAR loss + GB loss + NYG loss + STL loss

NFC WEST DIVISION
Seattle has clinched division title.

St. Louis can clinch playoff berth with:

1) STL win + NYG loss or tie + CAR loss or tie + ATL loss or tie, OR
2) STL tie + NYG loss + CAR loss + ATL loss + GB loss

$@M
12-27-2006, 01:11 PM
WAS v NYG: line opened @ WAS +2.5 and already dropped to +2

Like the Redskins ML here, playing at home and NYG are very much wounded at the moment... however, with playoff chance on the line for the G-men, maybe they can do something better?

by the way, can someone tell me whether the Skins have anything to play for? Any motivation for them to do well this game?

jayjay
12-27-2006, 02:34 PM
by the way, can someone tell me whether the Skins have anything to play for? Any motivation for them to do well this game?

Other than pride and the chance to end the Giants season, they have nothing to play for.

Strahan is out. For the season, not that our season has long to run anyway. :lol:

bad gambler
12-28-2006, 09:24 PM
Incredible to think that there is a chance 3 teams can make the playoffs from the NFC East, with the Skins the only team missing out

SadrieL
12-28-2006, 10:13 PM
That would be good since the NFC East is the only competitive division in the NFC anyway.

jayjay
12-29-2006, 01:54 PM
Aside from the Giants who I am taking more with my heart than head anyway, I am liking (ML as always), Kansas C and Chicago.

Always dangerous to play teams who have little or nothing to play for, but I can't see the Packers going into Chicago and winning (even if the Bears don't play everyone for the full match).

4 INT's for Favre, at least one going to the house.

jayjay
12-29-2006, 09:01 PM
Shockey out v Redskins. :rolleyes:

aussie_fan
12-30-2006, 11:31 AM
at the start of the season i never thought my new york jets would have an excllent chance of grabbing a playoff berth, it's been a very good season.

bad gambler
12-30-2006, 11:45 AM
Well D-Day finally here for the G-men. Strahan is this team and him missing along with big mouth Shockman pretty much is the nail in the coffin for this team. The players are playing for a head coach who has lost complete control over this team, Manning is playing the worst football in his young career, and the Barber farewell tour is fast becoming a huge distraction to this team.

If 99% of the offense goes through Tiki the G-men have a chance but unfortunately in reality the smart bet would be the Skins to win at home. Giants have won 6 of 8 regular season final games against the Skins.


But you know what screw the above, the first time in a long time I am going against my own betting principles and backing a team based on my heart.


Giants to beat Redskins - $1.80


Another bet is the over, last 5 in Washington has gone over. An improving Skins offense against a fading Giants defense continually allowing 20+ a game throughout the second half of the season. This one is more solid IMO, total should fly over.

OVER 42.5 Skins v Giants - $1.90


FFS Giants, at least do it for Barber, the guy deserves it, even though the Giants don't deserve to go into the playoffs.

good luck

bad gambler
12-30-2006, 11:49 AM
Locked in this one for Sunday:

Seahawks to beat Bucs - $2.55

Classic case of the better team catching the points. No way Hawks want to go into the playoffs on the back of 3 straight L's - will provide more comments on this one tomorrow. Looking into a couple of other plays.

bad gambler
12-30-2006, 12:02 PM
WAS v NYG: line opened @ WAS +2.5 and already dropped to +2

Like the Redskins ML here, playing at home and NYG are very much wounded at the moment... however, with playoff chance on the line for the G-men, maybe they can do something better?

by the way, can someone tell me whether the Skins have anything to play for? Any motivation for them to do well this game?

Only thing Skins are playing for is to piss off a divisonal rival by winning and stopping them getting into the playoffs

gusman890
12-30-2006, 12:16 PM
As a Major Colts fan,

Nothing would please me more then to have them tackle somewhat decently on defense.

Mistaflava
12-30-2006, 04:07 PM
Saturday, December 30


New York Giants -2 (50 Units)

The New York Giants, believe it or not, have actually made me some cash this season and as crazy as it sounds to take them in a game like this, I really like their chances against a Washington defense that they already understand, have already beaten and have to beat if they want to make the playoffs. Sure fading the Giants is as easy as it gets lately because they have lost six of their last seven games but believe it or not, this is one of those 'WIN AND YOU'RE IN' situations for the Giants and I don't think they are going to miss out on it. It's almost like a cat and his nine lives. Well the Giants are on their 8th life of the season here and it's to get down to the nitty gritty and win this football game. Yes I am well aware that Michael Strahan and Jeremy Shockey are both going to miss this game but the Giants haven't done shit with Shockey or Strahan in the lineup this year so why should it be any different without these two guys. I know Shockey is a big team spirit guy and all but do you think some guys like Eli Manning could actually perform a bit better with the Shockey distractions and the Shockey penalties? Possibly. It's big time gut check time for the Giants and even witout Toomer, Arrington, Strahan, Shockey and some others, I think they get the job done. The Giants are averaging 25.9 points per game on the road this season and they have done it on 333.4 total yards and 5.3 yards per play. Washington's defense is allowing 21.6 points per home game on 319.1 total yards per game and 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, RB Tiki Barber won't let this be his last NFL game. Barber is averaging 90.7 rushing yards per game on the road and the Giants have rushed for 125.3 per game away from home. Washington's run defense is allowing 125.7 rushing yards per home game on 4.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Eli Manning has been horrendous lately but he's confident. He is completing 58.2% of his passes on the road for 6.6 yards per pass attempt 15 touchdowns (he has passed for only 8 TD's at home). Washington's defense has allowed visiting opponents to complete 59.1% of their passes for 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Their pass rush is not what it used to be and they don't have many INT's at home this year. Jay Feely is 9 for 9 on the road this year and seeing that the Giants are good on 3rd downs and in the Red Zone on the road, I think they can kick some Redskin ass.

The Washignton Redskins are being called 'One of Those Teams' that has nothing to play for but that loves playing the spoiler role and that has played well enough since inserting rookie QB Jason Campbell. Well let me tell you guys a little something about that. Washington tried to ruin the Rams playoff chances last week but failed miserably. They had chances to win that game on two blatant occasions but they blew both of them and for me, their season ended there. Most of the players are now going to try and avoid getting hurt in this game because you don't want to head into the off-season with a very bad injury as it happens to someone every year. Joe Gibbs already has his mind on the Daytona 500 which is just around the corner and even though these guys lost to Washington earlier in the year, I don't know how much revenge means to them at this point. If you can't beat the Rams, you're not gonna beat the Giants. Did someone say Washington was on a run as of late? Huh? They are 2-5 the last seven weeks with wins over Carolina and New Orleans. The Redskins are averaging only 20.9 points per home game this season and they have done it by averaging 343.0 total yards and 5.5 yards per play. The Giants have not been that bad defensively on the road, allowing 23.6 points per game on 387.4 total yards and 5.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB Ladell Betts lost the cash last week but the Skins still run for 146.7 yards per home game on 4.4 yards per carry. However, Betts has played 8 career games against the Giants and averages 17.4 yards per game. The Giants are allowing only 117.6 rushing yards per game on the road for 4.1 yards per carry. In the air, QB Jason Campbell is completing 50.0% of his passes at home for 5.9 yards per pass attempt, 4 TD's and 5 interceptions. His QB Rating at home is 59.7 as opposed to 86.4 on the road. The Giants have a whopping 11 road interceptions this season so expect them to be all over Campbell forcing him into mistakes. Giants road opponents are completing 60.4% of their passes against them for 7.0 yards per pass attempt but I have a feeling we see one of the Giants best defensive performances today as they will build on their first game against the Skins where they held Washington only 3 points and only 164 total yards of offense. Should be another fun game to cash in on.

Who knows what Vegas wants us to do in this game. One thing is for sure though, I think one side is getting suckered into some siliness because I really don't see this game being close. If the Giants win and cover, they'll win by two touchdowns and same goes for the Redskins. So the bottom line is that with the public being split on both sides of the ball, someone is in for one hell of a surprise and I think it's the Redskins backers. Sure they have been playing really good football the second half of the season but they lost to the Rams last week and had plenty of chances to win that game. After losing that game and the heading home for the holidays with not much more football on their minds, I don't think they are going to be fully prepared for this game. The Giants on the other hand have been eating criticism in New York all week but they have been focused in practice knowing that this all comes down to one game and one game only. Eli was great in the first game against the Skins and I don't doubt he'll do a great job in this game as well. This is Tiki's gift to the Giants...a big win to make the playoffs.

Trend of the Game: NY Giants are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 versus the NFC East.


NY Giants 27, Washington 9



:eek:

flmmkrz
12-30-2006, 08:18 PM
Locked in this one for Sunday:

Seahawks to beat Bucs - $2.55

Classic case of the better team catching the points. No way Hawks want to go into the playoffs on the back of 3 straight L's - will provide more comments on this one tomorrow. Looking into a couple of other plays.

definately the play of the weekend for me. Holmy isnt resting anybody he wants the offense in sync for the playoffs and the d probably played its best game of the year last week despite the blown coverage to lose it late. A week for them to put it together and start what I believe is going to be a nice playoff run

tojoson
12-31-2006, 07:54 AM
Do you guys see good bet on taking Houston -6 against Cleveland???

Bolar Bolabi
12-31-2006, 11:22 AM
Looking at

Pittsburgh +6 and over 43.5 against Cincinatti

Seattle +3.5 over Tampa Bay

New England V Tennessee - Under 41

San Fran +10 over Denver

Any thoughts guys?

I'll leave the San Fran game until I wake up in the morning.

Pittsburgh over and New England under I'll play.

Might throw something on Seattle at the line as BG is big on them to win.

Sound like good bets?

jayjay
12-31-2006, 11:56 AM
Do you guys see good bet on taking Houston -6 against Cleveland???

I advise not playing matches where teams are dead for the season. Look around for something better, there are better picks out there.

Olao
12-31-2006, 12:40 PM
Locked in this one for Sunday:

Seahawks to beat Bucs - $2.55

Classic case of the better team catching the points. No way Hawks want to go into the playoffs on the back of 3 straight L's - will provide more comments on this one tomorrow. Looking into a couple of other plays.

Just picked this up on the Internet (from Holmgren's Wednesday Press Conference)

Q: What is your philosophy of the upcoming game?

Holmgren: “Well, we're going to play the game. And I told the team that this morning. We are at a different spot than we were last year, when we had everything locked up prior to the Green Bay game. It was just different, as far I was concerned. Now, we have not won a game in a couple weeks. I think it is important to win a game going into the playoffs. I think that's important. I think, while we played much better against San Diego than we had the two previous weeks, we have got to continue that. So if all of a sudden I started pulling guys or resting guys or all of a sudden say, 'Look, you are only going to play a quarter,' I think that's the wrong message to send to the them. Now when you do that, you roll the dice a little bit, absolutely. But we've been so inconsistent this season, that I just don't think we can do that. We have to play the game.”

Hoping he isn't just spinning....

bad gambler
12-31-2006, 01:05 PM
Giants to beat Redskins - $1.80


OVER 42.5 Skins v Giants - $1.90



Both of these won

bad gambler
12-31-2006, 01:14 PM
Seahawks to beat Bucs - $2.55



I had a few party drinks to celebrate the New Year so going to make this quick - but I submitted my card right after the Giants game so not under the influence at all

Adding

Saints to cover +2.5 v Panthers - $1.91

With the G-men winning on Saturday, Panthers faint playoff hopes are gone, this team will come out flat today. I know Saints also have nothing to play for and will most likely pull their starters by HT, but I figure by then Brees should have given them at least a TD lead. This team has been playing for New Orleans city and its people all season with plenty of emotion after Katrina, even their backups will be playing with more motivation then the Panthers today IMO.

49ers to cover +10.5 v Broncos - $1.89

+

49ers to beat Broncos - $5.25

ATS My favourite play for today, getting on it now before the 1pm kick off. Broncos have covered only once at Mile High all season and now they are asked to cover a double digit spread? crazzzyyyyyyyy

I'll be cheering for JAX to beat the Chiefs in the 1pm game, should that happen (which I can definitely see happening) this becomes even a stronger play because Broncs will have absolutely nothing to play for - line is sure to drop so getting on it now and may add to it should JAX win at Arrowhead.


good luck and Happy New Year to you all!!!

bad gambler
12-31-2006, 01:25 PM
Do you guys see good bet on taking Houston -6 against Cleveland???

Well Browns are starting their 3rd string QB - line still a bit inflated IMO after Texans win over the Colts, but I'm staying away

bad gambler
12-31-2006, 01:28 PM
Just picked this up on the Internet (from Holmgren's Wednesday Press Conference)

Q: What is your philosophy of the upcoming game?

Holmgren: “Well, we're going to play the game. And I told the team that this morning. We are at a different spot than we were last year, when we had everything locked up prior to the Green Bay game. It was just different, as far I was concerned. Now, we have not won a game in a couple weeks. I think it is important to win a game going into the playoffs. I think that's important. I think, while we played much better against San Diego than we had the two previous weeks, we have got to continue that. So if all of a sudden I started pulling guys or resting guys or all of a sudden say, 'Look, you are only going to play a quarter,' I think that's the wrong message to send to the them. Now when you do that, you roll the dice a little bit, absolutely. But we've been so inconsistent this season, that I just don't think we can do that. We have to play the game.”

Hoping he isn't just spinning....



great info - thanks. Also the offensive starters from all reports will get at least a half while the Hawks defense will likely see most of the game. Given I could count the number of times the Hawks offense have played together this season due to injuries in one hand, I highly doubt Holmgren is play acting there - As flmmy said earlier, key today for the Hawks is to get there offense in sync and once that happens they should blow the Bucs away early.

jayjay
12-31-2006, 02:15 PM
After the G-Men came through yesterday ML, today I'm skipping KC and just playing Bears ML as I did last week. It's the safe pick, even if the starters don't play the full game, the Packers (deflated now that their playoff hopes are over) will not be going to Chicago and winning against a Bears team looking to keep the home momentum going into the playoffs and to what they hope will be a Superbowl appearance.

Griese expected to get a good amount of playing time, no problem for me as far I'm concerned.

Mistaflava
12-31-2006, 02:43 PM
Sunday, December 31


Minnesota Vikings +2.5 (50 Units)

The St. Louis Rams cost me some valuable moral and money chips last week when after letting Washington do everything possible to win that game but eventually still winning. Unreal. The Rams literally did everything they could not to win and not to cover but somehow the deadSkins managed to lose anyways and I was a big loser on the 2.5. The Rams are basically coming off two wins against Washington and Oakland which is worth about as much as the socks I have on right now. Minnesota is not that bad of a team with or without Brad Johnson. It was just two weeks prior to the Oakland game that St. Louis went on the road and lost 34-20 to the Arizona Cardinals. Their only road wins on the season have been in Green Bay, in Arizona and in Oakland. Considering the Raiders are as bad as it gets in the NFL, the Vikings won the other two games by a combined 5 points and that's against two other bottom feeders in the Packers and Cardinals. After watching the Redskins performance last night, it just reinforces my point that St. Louis is a lot worst than most people think, ranking almost dead last in three key defensive categories. The Rams are averaging only 16.9 points per game on the road this season and they have done it by averaging only 289.9 total yards per game and only 5.1 yards per play. Minnesota's defense has done a solid job all season and they have allowed 22.1 points per home game on 348.6 total yards and 5.6 yards per play. On the ground, RB Stephen Jackson has rushed for 125+ rushing yards in his last two games (both Rams wins). Ironically, Jackson has rushed for 100+ yards only five times this season and St. Louis is 4-1 in those games and 3-7 when he doesn't. Minnesota's run defense is allowing only 55.9 rushing yards per home game on 2.9 yards per carry and I like their odds of holding Jackson to less than 100 yards. In the air, QB Marc Bulger has played well but he is much better at home and is completing 61.6% of his passes on the road for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line has given up 27 sacks on the road so lookout here because Minnesota's Kevin Williams and Derrion Scott are sack hungry and Minnesota's secondary has 21 interceptions on the year (Smoot is out but he only had one). Minnesota has good Red Zone home defense, they have good 3rd down home defense and they have recovered seven fumbles on home turf this season after forcing 11 of them. Bulger will try to pass all afternoon but his lack of a running game is going to hurt his chances of avoiding mistakes.

The Minnesota Vikings obviously have nothing to play for but that's not the case for some players on this team going for contracts and playing spots on next year's team. The fact that Minnesota is still cutting guys who are complaining at this time of the year tells me that they still want to win games and they still want to head into next season on a big positive. Being 6-9 is not that bad but the Vikings struggled heavily in the second half of the season which pretty much did them in. The Vikings have actually had a very long time to prepare for this game having not played since December 21 in Green Bay where as poorly as they played, they still managed to keep the game close and still almost came out on top once all was said and done. They Vikes are only 2-7 in their last nine games which is the reason they put in QB Tarvaris Jackson in to see what the kid could do and if he could spark this offense. He looked good in relief a few weeks back against the Jets so we can't blame him for his poor performance in sloppy road conditions against Brett Favre. We really can't. The Vikings are averaging 18.0 points per home game this season and they have done it by averaging 348.6 total yards and 5.7 yards per play. The Rams defense has struggled all season allowing 18.7 points per road game on 345.1 total yards per game and a whopping 5.9 yards per play. On the ground, it is imperative that RB Chester Taylor run well. When he rushes for 100+ yards, the Vikings are 4-0 this season and I like my chances here seeing that St. Louis is allowing 146.3 rushing yards per road game on 4.9 yards per carry. Taylor's running should take some pressure off Tarvaris Jackson who has still done a decent job this season. The Rams are allowing their road opponents to complete 60.0% of their passes for 7.0 yards per pass attempt but they do have a decent pass rush. The key for the Vikings is to let Jackson do what he does best and that is scramble around and run the football when things don't work in the air. The Rams allow 45.6% of 3rd downs to be converted against them on the road and their special teams have allowed big punt returns. As long as the Vikings stick to the run, make all their drives as long as possible, they should have a great shot at winning this game and I think Jackson is going to have a big game leaving no doubt in Minnesota's minds that he can be the QB here next season.

Everywhere I go, I see people saying how St. Louis is on a roll now and the Rams are making a big push for it. Okay so they have won two straight games...does that make them a much better team than the Vikings at home? Nope. Sure Minnesota has it's fair share of issues but they had those same issues at this time last year, yet were a -7 at home against St. Louis and ended up beating them 27-13. Okay Minnesota was an 8-5 team back then but still...the 9.5 point swing on the line from last year's game has me baffled. Bulger didn't play in that game and the Rams were garbage but Bulger on the road is not worth that many points and Minnesota's defense is so good that they can't be that many points worse than last year. The Rams only win when Stephen Jackson can run for 100+ yards (3-1 when he does) but I don't see it happening here. Bulger and the Rams seem to be in an offensive groove as of late but Minnesota's defense will play well enough to keep this game close. You all saw how bad Washington really is last night so why take the Rams?

Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 6-1 ATS at home in their last seven versus a team with a losing road record.


Minnesota 17, St. Louis 16




Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 (75 Units)

Hit em once, hit em twice...no problem. Try and hit them a third time and this team is going to make you pay. All of a sudden everyone is calling for the Chiefs to come into this game and spank the shit out of Jacksonville. Can I please ask why when Jacksonville is coming off two tough games and two tough losses against two teams that are playing very well? If you combined Tennessee and New England's records over the last two months, they are a combined 11-1 (now that's come crazy shit) so it just so happens that Jacksonville ran into the hottest teams in the NFL at the wrong time. Now needing a win and needing a few miracles (NYJ, CIN and TEN would have to lose as well), the Jaguars are too prideful not to come in here and give it all they have. There's no reason for them to have a letdown and assume this season is over because we have seen crazy stuff happen in the final week of the playoffs and I wouldn't put it past the Jets to lose against the Raiders, or the Bengals to lose against Pittsburgh or the Titans to end their win streak and lose to New England. It's all possible. Jacksonville is averaging only 18.4 points per game on the road this year for 311.6 total yards and 5.6 yards per play. Kansas City's defense has allowed only 17.3 points per home and allowed 276.6 total yards per game on only 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, Jacksonville is averaging 156.3 rushing yards per road game this season on 4.7 yards per carry. The Chiefs have allowed only 88.1 rushing yards per home game on 3.4 yards per carry but I expect Maurice Drew Jones and Fred Taylor to have big games. In the air, QB David Garrard has recently shown that he struggles in big games but will he come back and prove us all wrong? Garrard has been about 10 times better on the road this year completing 65.6% of his passes (56.8% at home) for 6.9 yards per pass attempt and 5 touchdowns. Kansas City is allowing opposing road QB's to complete 61.2% of their passes for 6.3 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line has struggled and is banged up for the Jags but Taylor and Drew Jones should both take some of that pressure off. Garrard is going to have to play his best game of the season and although the Jaguars are only 2-5 on the road this season, Garrard as a starter is 2-2 with wins in Miami and in Philadelphia...two tough places to play. The Jaguars show some class here and fight right to the end.

The Kansas City Chiefs have had one of the most up and down seasons in the NFL this year partly because guys have been injured here and guys have been injured and the excuses just keep piling up. Both teams are 8-7 heading into this game and both teams still have legit shot at making the playoffs. However, the Chiefs are 8-7 having had the 21st most difficult schedule in the NFL while Jackonsville is 8-7 having had the 5th most difficult schedule in the NFL this season. There is a clear difference in mind as to who should be favored in this game based on several intangibles. To make the post season, Kansas City would need to win this game and they would need Cincinnati, Denver and Tennessee to lose. I see the Jets losing to Oakland as a lot more probable than Denver losing to San Francisco but regardless, the Chiefs need to win and they know it. All I keep hearing left and right is how good Kansas City is at home in the month of December but how could experts say that when they looked like garbage against Baltimore a few weeks back? The Chiefs come into this game averaging 23.1 points per home game this season. They have done it by averaging 346.6 total yards per game as well as 5.6 yards per play on home turf. Jackonsville is allowing 21.6 points per road game this season and they have done it by allowing only 282.4 total yards away from home and only 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, RB Larry Johnson is a beast at home and they average 160.1 rushing yards per home game on 4.4 yards per carry. However, the Jaguars allow only 87.4 rushing yards per road game on 3.6 yards per carry. In the air, QB Trent Green has been atrocious at home, completing 60.0% of his passes for 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions. His QB Rating is 84.1 on the road but only 63.1 at home. Jackonsville has very good Red Zone defense and 3rd down defense on the road and the Jags have to continue making big plays on defense. Kansas City is quick starting team at home and they can strike like lightning. It's important for Jackonsville's defense to contain Johnson on the ground and attack Green to pad their 14 road sacks on the season. I have a feeling Kansas City will keep fighting all game but the Jaguars will make that one huge defensive play that seals the deal in this game and gives them a small shot at the playoffs.

Cmon little sheep...the Vegas begging continues for you to grab the Chiefs in this game because they are according to 4 different NFL EXPERTS, a very good 'December Home Team'. Pinnacle even did you all a favor and brought their line all the way down to -1 instead of -2 or -2.5 at other books just in case you like Kansas City sooo much that you had doubts of 1 or 1.5 points in your mind. Jack Del Rio about to lose three straight games and take himself out of playoff contention? Are you kidding me. Jacksonville is nowhere near as bad as the oddsmakers have made them in this game you guys might think I am crazy but even though they lost to New England and Tennessee (two hot ass teams), they are still one of the best teams in the AFC and they most definitely belong in the playoffs. The sucker bet here would be to take the home team thinking that they need to win to make the playoffs. However, overall talent is going to take over supreme in this game as Jacksonville is going to come in here and show some class regardless of their playoff fate. Coming off losses against teams that are 11-1 in their last six games combined, the Jags won't have a problem against a team that is 3-3 over that same span.

Trend of the Game: Jackonsville is 6-0 ATS in their last six games as underdogs of 0.5 to 3.0 points.


Jackonsville 30, Kansas City 20




Cleveland Browns +6 (25 Units)

The Cleveland Browns have won me some money this year and much like the New York Giants, it's a matter of picking your spots and going for gold. The only reason I am betting on this game is because I have given each team a fair chance to win this game seeing that neither is vying for a playoff spot. The Cleveland Browns are now going to go with their 3rd starting QB this season when Ken Dorsey gets the nod in this game. Who knows, another change of QB pace might be a good thing considering Dorsey does have 10 starts with the Niners over the last few years. I mean he did manage to pass for 8 touchdown passes in 10 games as starter for a pathetic San Francisco team so he could have some success. Derek Anderson and Charlie Frye are here for next year but Ken Dorsey is still trying to audition for a direct backup position in the NFL. The floor is yours Ken now do your stuff. No pressure or nothing on Dorsey because this will be the first time he completes a pass since 2005 and not one person in Cleveland is expecting the Browns to win this game. Cleveland is averaging 17.0 points per game on the road this season and they have done it by also averaging 270.1 total yards of offense per game and only 4.7 yards per play. However, Houston is allowing 21.6 points per game at home on 369.3 total yards and 6.4 yards per play. On the ground, RB Reuben Droughns has really struggled to run the ball. However, Houston is allowing 134.0 rushing yards per home game this season on a whopping 5.2 yards per carry and Droughns has played twice in his career against the Houston Texans and is averaging 109.5 rushing yards per game against them. Could this be the breakout game the Browns have been waiting for all year? I think so. In the air, Ken Dorsey has 10 career starts in the NFL completing 53.8% of his passes for 5.3 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Houston's defense has allowed opposing road QB's to complete a whopping 67.7% of their passes this season for 7.4 yards per pass attempt so I give the Browns a very good chance of completing their first 40+ yard pass of the season. Dorsey is capable of getting the ball out there and Braylen Edwards, Kellen Winslow and Dennis Northcutt are all capable of making big plays. The offensive line is a mess but Houston's D-Line doesn't pressure QB's much at home so Dorsey should be fine. The Texans have intercepted only 3 passes at home all season and opponents are converting 44.7% of 3rd down chances against them. The Texans also allow a 62.5% TD conversion rate from inside the Red Zone at home and all of this is only making things easier for Dorsey to start his first game since last season. Northcutt has been great on punt returns all year on the road (15.3 yards per return) and I expect him to give Dorsey decent field position on more than one occasion in this game.

The Houston Texans could easily be considered a team on the rise after they beat the big bad Indianapolis Colts 27-24 at home last week but beating the Colts has become a common thing this season and it has become quite obvious that Indianapolis is just not the same as they used to be. Nonetheless, that was a big win for Houston but if you're betting on the Texans in their final game of the season, please consider the following things first. Houston lost 4 home games this season and those games were against Philadelphia, Washington, Buffalo and Tennessee. Out of those four teams, only one is in the playoffs for sure (but when Houston played them they weren't a playoff caliber team) and the others are most likely going to miss the playoffs. You also have to consider that David Carr's days are numbered in Houston and that the team will go after a different quarterback next season as has been rumoured all week. That has to be demoralizing for the guy specially coming off a win against Indianapolis. I expect a big letdown from Carr as a QB this week. The Texans come into this game averaging only 19.6 points per home game and they have done it by averaging 302.6 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play. Cleveland's road defense has allowed 24.9 points per game on 376.3 total yards and 6.3 yards per play but that was against good teams like Baltimore, Cincinnati and San Diego. On the ground, RB Ron Dayne gets the nod again this week but as well as he played last week, Daybe is not a consistent running back. He averages only 64.0 rushing yards in his career against Cleveland which is not good seeing that the Browns allow 179.6 rushing yards per road game on 5.6 yards per carry this season. In the air, Carr has completed 68.6% of his passes this season for 6.3 yards per pass attempt but only 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Carr has been sacked 40 times which can't be good seeing that Cleveland has 14 road sacks and LB Kamerion Wimbley is on the field with his 10 sacks on the year. Cleveland's pass defense is as solid as it gets as they have allowed only 53.6% of passes to be completed against them on the road for only 6.6 yards per pass attempt and 17 interceptions on the season. Sean Jones is a lethal safety with 5 interceptions on the year who can hit anyone on the field and is always there to make plays. Cleveland has allowed only 39.6% of 3rd down passes to be completed against them on the road and thier Red Zone defense remains as decent as it gets for the teams they have played against. I like the Browns to either win this game or lose by a field goal.

The Browns have all sorts of injuries on the offensive line, they are down to their 3rd and final string quarterback for this game, this is their last game of the season and it's on the road so why not go out there and have some fun? The line is obviously inflating because of Houston's 'I Shot My Load' win last week and much like other teams who have beatn Indy at time this year, there is a pretty big letdown the following week. Houston's offense is good but they lack consistency big time and giving up on the run might be a big mistake in this game. I know Cleveland has a lot of injuries on the board but their defense is underrated and the only reason they have allowed so much yardage and so many points this season is because the offense has given other teams great field position and the offense has the most 3 and outs in the NFL. This is a great spot for Cleveland to possibly make an impression for next year while Houston may not have worked so hard this week knowing the season is already over. Can the Browns please make me a bit more cash?

Trend of the Game: Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games versus a team with a losing home record.


Cleveland 16, Houston 14



:eek:


GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Grinder
12-31-2006, 03:56 PM
Falcons +13.5 over the Eagles @ 1.53 - 7.55 units to win 4 units

The bookies are seriously overrating the Eagles solely on their fluke over the Cowboys last week. The Falcons will definitely be trying this game if they have any respect for Coach Mora, whose future seems uncertain after two .500 seasons. Obviously the Eagles are going to try because a win here secures them the NFC East, however a loss here and a Cowboys win over the Lions (very likely) would only give them a second place finish in the NFC East. I don't get why the handicap is so high for the Falcons with odds above 1.5, the Falcons record may not indicate it, but they're a solid team and have had a tough schedule attributing to their poor record. There's no way that they're going to get blown away by the Eagles.

This is the same Eagles team that has one of the worst run defenses in the whole league. Just because they managed to hold the ground game against the Cowboys doesn't mean they're gonna do it again here. Tony Romo had tons of room to pick up yardage for first downs but choose to stand in the pocket and look for the pass way too much. Michael Vick certainly won't hesitate to run for it if he sees the slightest opening. The Falcons also average more yards per carry than any other team on the run. They've got the best ground game of any team in the NFL, while the Eagles are somewhere down in the 20s for rushing defense.


Cowboys vs. Lions under 44.5 points @ 2.06 - 2.83 units to win 3 units

America's team will be out there with a purpose after the loss to the Eagles and the Lions are going to be the unfortunate victim of this destruction. The Lions are absolutely atrocious this season at 2-13 and it shows in their game. I don't see them scoring more than one TD against a motivated Cowboy defense. I also don't think the Cowboys are going to score more than four or five TDs so anything under a 28-14, 35-7, 28-10 scoreline which I think is likely, is safe for this bet. Dallas also clinches the NFC East with a win here and an Eagles loss. Let's go Cowboys. :cool:

TMJordan
12-31-2006, 04:21 PM
49ers +10.5 (big play)

Good Luck.

Nitefaery
12-31-2006, 04:49 PM
Alright I can't sit so quiet.

Bears x Ravens (1 unit)
2nd half Seattle +3.5 (1 unit)
2nd half Cowboys +7 (1 unit)

Good luck!

betowiec
12-31-2006, 06:42 PM
2nd half DEtroit Lions ML @ 5.5

bad gambler
12-31-2006, 07:51 PM
Saints to cover +2.5 v Panthers - $1.91


Seahawks to beat Bucs - $2.55



Lost on the Saints, won on the Hawks

Niners ML and +10.5 pending, though I may as well rip up the ML ticket given the Broncs now need to win to make the playoffs, assuming Chiefs hold to their current lead

Win being the key, not cover by 11....

Still confident it falls inside the number


gl

Bilbo
12-31-2006, 07:53 PM
Lost on the Saints, won on the Hawks

Niners ML and +10.5 pending, though I may as well rip up the ML ticket given the Broncs now need to win to make the playoffs, assuming Chiefs hold to their current lead

Win being the key, not cover by 11....

Still confident it falls inside the number


gl

waddup bro? how was the party in sydney?

betowiec
12-31-2006, 08:23 PM
2nd half DEtroit Lions ML @ 5.5


Lion$$$$$$$

betowiec
12-31-2006, 11:31 PM
Brett to put on a show in ChiTown

packers -3.5 @ 3.6

bad gambler
01-01-2007, 12:37 AM
49ers to cover +10.5 v Broncos - $1.89

+

49ers to beat Broncos - $5.25



win x 2

And I thought the G-men were the worst coached team in the NFL :lol:

Hope the Broncs enjoy watching the playoffs on tv, bunch of clowns

TMJordan
01-01-2007, 12:38 AM
:haha: Broncos :haha:

Saints ruined a great day for me, still good but would have won an extra $2500 or so if they won :sad:

bad gambler
01-01-2007, 12:38 AM
Going to be the Birds v G-men in the playoffs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


:woohoo:

TMJordan
01-01-2007, 12:41 AM
Going to be the Birds v G-men in the playoffs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


:woohoo:

I am playing the Eagles to win the NFC rather large, hope to get a nice price.

bad gambler
01-01-2007, 01:50 AM
I am playing the Eagles to win the NFC rather large, hope to get a nice price.

This was initially my plan as well, and they will probably take care of the Giants easily as well


However I have a new team I've lined up in the NFC to make the superbowl

SwiSha
01-01-2007, 02:44 AM
Eaglessssssssssssssssss

betowiec
01-01-2007, 02:59 AM
Brett to put on a show in ChiTown

packers -3.5 @ 3.6


win

TMJordan
01-01-2007, 03:57 AM
49ers +10.5 (big play)

Good Luck.

Win

jayjay
01-01-2007, 11:28 AM
After the G-Men came through yesterday ML, today I'm skipping KC and just playing Bears ML as I did last week. It's the safe pick, even if the starters don't play the full game, the Packers (deflated now that their playoff hopes are over) will not be going to Chicago and winning against a Bears team looking to keep the home momentum going into the playoffs and to what they hope will be a Superbowl appearance.

Griese expected to get a good amount of playing time, no problem for me as far I'm concerned.

That hurt. Skipped KC to take a pathetic and shameful performance from the Bears. Rex Grossman, what a twat. :rolleyes: :lol:

The good news is the G-Men are in the playoffs, and I won my ESPN Fantasy Mini-League. :cool: :banana:
http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/freescoreboard?leagueId=303412