NBA Week 8 Pre-Christmas rally thread... [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

NBA Week 8 Pre-Christmas rally thread...

brewers7
12-18-2006, 05:54 PM
Uncharted territory for me in terms of most bets lost in a row since I started betting at online Sportsbooks in 1996...Clinching a Win with this NFL teaser (I did bet the hedge of course) helps as it does give me a winning bet, so maybe this turns the tide and actually, if the Bengals win by 8 or 9, I'll win BOTH bets with my small middle and win 29 units, and if Cincy wins by 10, I'll win 18 units...I'll win 6 units no matter who wins the game with the hedge...

Haven't decided how I will attack the NBA this week...May wait till Wednesday or may come out swinging tonight...

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Looks at Monday's games:

Golden State at New Jersey: Troy Murphy and Jason Richardson are questionable for GS, although Richardson has been cleared to play and may return tonight...GS is playing their 2nd 4-of-5 this season...They Covered on 11/7 at NO...Unless I miscounted, the 4-of-5 Away Team vs. the Home rested team is 13-5 ATS this season, winning 4 straight...The Warriors have lost 7 straight on the Road, however...The Nets are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS their last 8 h2h vs. GS at Home, winning 6 of those by DDs and the other 2 games by 8 and by 5...The last 3 h2h games have gone Over...GS was Under in their only 4-of-5 tilt this season, and are 4-2 to the Under in the back-end of bk-2-bks this season...GS is 1-5 SU & 4-2 ATS in back-enders this season...NJ 2-2 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season...GS is 3-0 ATS in their 5th game in 7 days this season and 2-1 ATS in 6-of-9's (yesterday their first ATS loss in that spot this season)...Vince Carter is coming off 2 terrible shooting games...

Utah at New York: No total posted yet...Ronnie Brewer is questionable for Utah...Quentin Richardson is questionable, Steve Francis is expected to miss & Nate Robinson, Jared Jeffries, Mardy Collins and Jerome James suspended for NY...The Knicks have actually won 4 straight in this h2h series...9 of the last 13 Under in this h2h series...Utah 5th and NY actually 12th in the league in FG% allowed...Utah is 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks this season...NY 2-2 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not...Jazz opened as 5.5 FAVs and quickly moved to 7.5 FAVs...

New Orleans at Miami: Peja Stojakovic, Bobby Jackson & David West are still out for NO...The last 4 in this h2h series have gone Over...MIA 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 overall...On the other hand, NO is 2-8-1 ATS their last 11...NO beat this team on 11/21, but they had Peja and Jackson and they combined for 37 points in that game...MIA started the season 1-6 ATS as a FAV, but have now Covered 3 straight...NO is 2-4 ATS in the "no-trend" category in my database this season, Not Covering 4 straight in this spot (which is a spot where they have 1 day's rest without a 3 of 4 or 4 of 6...

Seattle at Memphis: Damon Stoudamire and Stromile Swift are questionable for Memphis...MEMP is on a NC6 and are 1-9 ATS their last 10 after a C6...SEA is 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks...Away Teams have 5 of the last 6 in this h2h series...SEA's final game of a 5-game Road trip in which they are winless...SEA Under all 4 games, too, and also Under 6 of 7 without Ray Allen...SEA 2-0 ATS in their 5th game in 7 days this season and both went Over...This is the first game all season where MEMP has rest while their opponents do not...

Washington at Denver: No total posted yet...Carmelo Anthony, Nene Hilario and J.R. Smith suspended...WAS opened as 1.5 Dogs and quickly became 2.5 FAVs, like, within minutes...Qucik revenge spot here for DEN, and a huge let-down spot for WAS after a HUGE OT win at Staples last night vs. the Lakers, but how are the Nuggets going to be without Melo, who has been pouring in 31+ points a night?...There literally is nobody on the team who can replace Melo...Have to immediately look at the Under here, but can the Nuggets rise up here with Melo, Smith and Nene?...DEN had won 6 straight in this h2h series until WAS won the last 2, including just last week by 29 at WAS...

Dallas at Sacramento: Anthony Johnson is questionable for Dallas...Kevin Martin and Jason Hart are questionable for Sacramento...Fairly quick revenge spot for the Kings, who lostt at Dallas on 12/1 by 19...SAC's Kevin Martin is their leading scorer and is questionable, so you have to wonder how the Kings will be if he doesn't play...SAC Under 2 straight, while Dallas is Under 2 straight, 7 of 8 and 13 of 16...Dallas has won 2 of their last 4 trips to ARCO...DAL is 5-0 ATS in their 4th game in 6 nights this season...SAC 2-4 ATS in their 3rd game in 4 nights on the season...

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brewers7
12-18-2006, 09:55 PM
Feel free to fade away here, because since I am in uncharted waters losing 10 straight NBA bets, I have no idea when that will end...It may hit 20, and I am not kidding...You just never know...I am just glad as all hell I got the first 3 plays in my NFL teaser right yesterday, so I hedged on pick #4 today to clinch a win just so I could feel what it was like to win again...

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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 51-38, +$1261

Sides: 24-15, +$867, Totals: 15-14, +$190, 1H bets: 2-2, -$10, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 2-2, +$69, Quarters: 5-4, -$48

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Monday, December 18

Golden State Warriors +6 -- $309 to win $300 --- (or GS +6 hcp @1.971, 3/10, Pinnacle)

I am a glutton for punishment as I have lost 2 straight bets with GS during this bad run...Am I going for the hat trick?...Jason Richardson is questionable for GS, although he has been cleared to play and may return tonight...GS is playing their 2nd 4-of-5 this season...They Covered on 11/7 at NO...Unless I miscounted, the 4-of-5 Away Team vs. the Home rested team is 13-5 ATS this season, winning 4 straight...GS is 1-5 SU & 4-2 ATS in back-enders this season...NJ 2-2 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season...GS is 3-0 ATS in their 5th game in 7 days this season and 2-1 ATS in 6-of-9's (yesterday their first ATS loss in that spot this season)...The Western Conference is just so much better than the Eastern Conference it isn't even funny...And GS losing 7 in a row, this shouldn't last forever...About the same losing streak this early in the season for teams like WAS and LAC and "good" teams aren't supposed to lose this many in a row on the Road, although GS faced some incredibly tough teams on the Road...Even if GS cannot come through with the "W", at least I have half-a-dozen points worth of "insurance" this time...Hope I don't need it, but you never know...And I hope I can get one more win out of the 4-of-5 Away Team vs. the rested Home Team trend and maybe Vince can have one more terrible shooting game...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Monday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) GS, 2) Memp, 3) Dal, 4) NO, 5) NY, 6) Was

Totals:

1) Was un, 2) NO un, 3) GS un, 4) Dal un, 5) Memp un, 6) NY ov

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 0-1 (-$275)
Last 3 days: 0-9 (-$1295)
Last 7 days: 5-11 (-$1044)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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brewers7
12-18-2006, 11:47 PM
Additional bet:

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Monday, December 18

Washington/Denver under 212.5 -- $100 to win $100 --- (or Was/Den under 212.5 @2.000, 1/10, Pinnacle)

I cannot let this one go without a bet...Line is still going up, but I am sorry, I just am not sure why...The Denver personnel is just barely a fit for this new offense that has been installed during the offseason for the Nuggets and I am being kind here...Getting Allen Iverson would be a step in the right direction for this style offense for the Nuggets...Having Melo and J.R. Smith help, but Andre Miller is definitely not a good fit here along with others...Now, Melo and Smith are suspended (and Nene) and I just have to ask if it is possible for Denver to even be able to run their system without these guys?...Will Eduardo Najera and Joe Smith start launching treys?...Reggie Evans?...Are these guys going to get quality shots off within 10 seconds every possession?...And we have The Wiz scoring 147 last night and Gilbert Arenas put up a career-high 60...So this is an extreme Over and I don't see the Wiz getting close to repeating that...Not to mention Washington just put up 120 against Denver last week at WAS and I am quite sure that George Karl is not going to want to see another 120 put up by The Wiz in front of the Home crowd...And one last point...Melo scored 37 of Denver's 91 points last week...Maybe I am missing something here, but I see a game in the upper 90s...Maybe I will be dead wrong again, but I simply cannot pass up this rising total that should be just about at its apex here...

Good Luck...brewers7
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$@M
12-19-2006, 02:00 AM
unlucky there, brewers... GSW threw the game away in the last quarter... sadly, i was on the the GSW+6 same as you... :sad:

let's hope the UNDER in Was/Den game comes thru :)

its.like.that
12-20-2006, 03:57 AM
BG why did you delete my post?

I was being serious.

I am trying to help get Brewers back on track.

I went 3/4 in his honour.

:hatoff: