NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)... [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)...

brewers7
12-04-2006, 03:12 PM
================================================== =====================

Early looks at Monday's games:

Dallas at Washington: Dallas has won 12 straight after an 0-4 start...How long can this go on?...Dallas is 13-3 SU & 9-7 ATS the last 16 against WAS and the last 12 has seen 6-5-1 to the Over...Quick-revenge spot from 11/21 where Dallas killed Washington at Dallas by 27 after the game was tied at the half...The pace was quick in that game before Dallas pulled away, but both teams shot terribly, so the total only hit 187...WASH shot 35.5% and DAL shot 39.8% in that game, but there were 174 shots taken in the contest and 46 FTs...I expect about the same number of shots and the same pace, so if both teams get to even 45% for the game, we should have an Over here...I may look at a 1Q Over, too as dallas has had a lot of those this season...The public will pound Dallas, but for me it is WAS or no-play...Also a chart-play to the over for Dallas because after 6 straight Unders, they have had 2 Overs and for WASH, a slight chart-play to the Over because after 6 of 7 Under, they have gone Over 3 of 4 and 2 straight...

Memphis at New York: Damon Stoudamire is questioable for Memphis...Similar situation here to the last game for the Knicks except for the 4-of-5 spots...A bad Road team vs. a bad Home team...NY is 1-7 SU at Home while MEMP is 1-8 on the Road...Revenge spot for MEMP after an opening-night loss to NY at Home in triple-OT...Not sure what weight that really holds here, but MEMP has been outstanding historically the last 5 years vs. the Eastern Conference...This is a chart-play to fade MEMP after a C6, they have a NC2 now...Under looks intriguing here as 4 of the last 5 went Under (in regulation) h2h...And after that 79-point 2H against TOR last time out at Home for NY, I wonder if this entire game might be closer to the 79-point half tonight in both halves against MEMP...Knicks defense not as bad as people think as they are 10th in the league in FG% allowed and MEMP is 8th in the league in Points allowed per game...

Golden State at San Antonio: Jason Richardson is probable but not 100% healthy for GS...Manu Ginobili is questionable for SA, although during the last SA telecast, the Spurs announcers did mention that Ginobili may play on Monday as that was his target date for returning...GS has lost 17 straight (6-11 ATS) at SA and has not won there since 2/14/97...9 Unders and 8 Overs during that losing streak...SA was 30-4 SU & 20-14 ATS vs. GS in the 34 previous meetings coming into this season and then lost at GS 111-102 on 11/27...The Spurs were on the back-end of a bk-2-bk that night and are 0-14 ATS (1-13 SU) in that spot their last 14 chances against teams with at least a .500 record...GS hasn't won since that big home win...Spurs haven't covered 3 straight and are struggling without Ginobili...GS only 4 Away games this season and are 1-3 SU & 2-2 ATS...GS 3 straight Overs and 6 of 7 Over...

Boston at Chicago: No line posted...Wally Szczerbiak is questionable and Paul Pirece and Kendrick Perkins are probable but not 100% healthy for Boston...Malik Allen and Chris Duhon are questionable for Chicago...Almost right on schedule, the Bulls have heated up now that they have some Home games after that bad 7-game Road trip...The Bulls have won 4 straight and are 3-0-1 ATS and they have 2 comfortable wins at Home since that Road trip...The Bulls have won and Covered 5 straight h2h vs. BOS...3 of the last 4 Over in this series...CHI has plenty of Home games coming up and some mediocre competition coming in this week, so look for them to get on a roll...The Celtics not terrible on the Road with a 3-2-1 ATS record and they are 4-2 to the Over...

Milwaukee at Utah: The Bucks have been an Over and Cover machine on this Road trip (3 Covers and 3 Overs) and have gone Over 4 straight...Their C3 has come after a NC5, so they are still a chart-play here...Utah started the season 7-2 ATS and are 3-6 ATS since and are 1-4 ATS after starting the season 12-1 SU...This h2h series has seen Utah go 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS the last 9...The total is even more strange, because in the last 17 h2h meetings, the first 9 went Over, then 6 out of 7 Under, and now the last meeting, on 11/11 this season at MILW, did fly Over as michael Redd scored 57 points in that game...So this is a revenge-spot to boot for the Bucks...

Orlando at Sacramento: No line posted...Grant Hill is questionable for ORL...Ron Artest is questionable for SAC...The Magic saw their 6-game winning streak end last night in a big way, getting buried at Staples by the Clippers...ORL is 2nd in the league in FG% allowed, although they allowed LAC to shoot 60% last night...ORL has gone Over 2 of their 3 bk-2-bks and this is SAC's first game of the season when they have rest and their opponent does not...ORL 2-1 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks...SAC is 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS at Home...The Home Team has won 9 of the last 10 in this h2h series...

Indiana at LA Lakers: Stephen Jackson is questionable for Indiana...The Home team has won 7 straight & 8 of 9 in this h2h series...2 straight Unders and 7 of 9 Under in this series...Indy ending their longest Road Trip of the season...The Lakers have been outstanding at Home at 9-2 (10-2 if you count the win vs. the Clips last time out in the same building)...Indy 4 straight Overs on this trip...The Lakers had 4 Overs and a push before going Under last time out...Indy their 5th game in 7 days while the Lakers are playing their 10th straight game with at least 1 day's rest and are 7-3 in those games...

================================================== =====================

brewers7
12-04-2006, 04:41 PM
Possible cold-streak coming, hard to say, so I may mix it up a bit this week and I am looking into other possible plays for today...

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 40-22, +$2226

Sides: 18-10, +$907, Totals: 14-9, +$851, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 3-0, +$250

================================================== ======================

Monday, December 4

Dallas/Washington over 204 -- $150 to win $154 --- (or Dal/Wash over 204 @2.03, 1.5/10, Pinnacle)

This line is shooting downwards like crazy, and I am not sure why...Went down from 206 to 204 in the last 30 minutes...Don't see it going any lower than this, but what di I know?...These teams played 11/21/06 and the total was just a 187, but the game was a blow-out...Dallas won by 27...The pace was quick in that game before Dallas pulled away, but both teams shot terribly, so the total only hit 187...WASH shot 35.5% and DAL shot 39.8% in that game, but there were 174 shots taken in the contest and 46 FTs...I expect about the same number of shots and the same pace, so if both teams get to even 45% for the game, we should have an Over here...Also a chart-play to the over for Dallas because after 6 straight Unders, they have had 2 Overs and for WASH, a slight chart-play to the Over because after 6 of 7 Under, they have gone Over 3 of 4 and 2 straight...Dallas has scored at least 103 the last 5 straight meetings h2h here, and I don't see them scoring less than that and I see WASH breaking 100, too, in what should be a tight game down the stretch, so maybe some late fouling puts this Over in the final minute if it hasn't already gone Over by then...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Monday's Picks for tracking purposes:

pending...

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 0-1 (-$54)
Last 3 days: 1-2 (-$62)
Last 7 days: 5-2 (+$488)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
================================================== ======================

brewers7
12-04-2006, 09:19 PM
================================================== ======================

Additional bet:

Monday, December 4

Dallas/Washington, 1Q, over 51.5 -- $58 to win $50

Juice was high at Pinny, so I went to 5dimes...Both teams are 11-5 to the Over in the 1Q, and Dallas has gone Over 5 straight 1Q's while Washington has gone Over 4 straight 1Q's...Both teams have been starting games with a lot of energy and hot shooting so I am hoping for more of the same tonight...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Monday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) NY, 2) Chi, 3) Was, 4) Milw, 5) Sac, 6) GS, 7) Ind

Totals:

1) Was ov, 2) Chi ov, 3) Sac ov, 4) NY un, 5) Milw ov, 6) Ind un, 7) GS un

================================================== ======================

Olao
12-04-2006, 11:34 PM
================================================== ======================

Additional bet:

Monday, December 4

Dallas/Washington, 1Q, over 51.5 -- $58 to win $50

Juice was high at Pinny, so I went to 5dimes...Both teams are 11-5 to the Over in the 1Q, and Dallas has gone Over 5 straight 1Q's while Washington has gone Over 4 straight 1Q's...Both teams have been starting games with a lot of energy and hot shooting so I am hoping for more of the same tonight...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Monday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) NY, 2) Chi, 3) Was, 4) Milw, 5) Sac, 6) GS, 7) Ind

Totals:

1) Was ov, 2) Chi ov, 3) Sac ov, 4) NY un, 5) Milw ov, 6) Ind un, 7) GS un

================================================== ======================

1st Q, 1.09 remaining

Wizards 29
Mavs 23
Brewers 1 :)

Well played, nice look on that bet, especially since it's a second bet in the overs' department at a time where you could hit a cold streak, as you wrote.

Good start for the 204+ bet since Dallas will work to improve their shooting while the Wizards hopefully stay in the zone with you...

BTW, Great contribution from you to the forum. :cool:

GodOfGamblers
12-05-2006, 12:54 AM
nice play with the first quarter bet b7!

But I think it's going to be tough with the OVER for the whole game here. Dallas is struggling but it look like Washington will win this one easily :)

xcrap
12-05-2006, 01:16 AM
he still can break the over!!

GodOfGamblers
12-05-2006, 01:18 AM
he still can break the over!!

47 seconds left and it's on 199 right now. Bloody can't get close then this man :confused:

xcrap
12-05-2006, 01:20 AM
nice bet, i think he will win , what a close one

GodOfGamblers
12-05-2006, 01:23 AM
nice bet, i think he will win , what a close one

I had over 203.5 and the total for the game is 203. Unbelievable :(

Can't get closer then that.

xcrap
12-05-2006, 01:25 AM
OMG by 1 point

BL

brewers7
12-05-2006, 12:45 PM
tough, tough loss as it was even more painful to watch them not score at all over the final 33 seconds...

================================================== =====================

Early looks at Tuesday's games:

Portland at Detroit: Raef LeFrentz is probable for Portland...Lindsey Hunter is questionable for Detroit...PORT has covered 7 of the last trips into DET...The Pistons just had an 8-game winning streak snapped last time out at CHAR...Wonder here if they may be looking ahead to Dallas next...PORT has become unpredictable now for me, but it's always hard for me to lay DD's in the NBA...PORT has lost 5 straight overall...Pistons still and Over team at Home under Flip Saunders although the last 4 between these two teams h2h have gone under at Detroit...

Dallas at New Jersey: No line posted...Vince Carter is probable for NJ...DAL shot just 39% on Monday much to my dismay (for the total) and now, after the 12-game winning streak comes to and end, this has to be a let-down spot IMO rather than a bounce-back spot because the air is let out of the balloon a bit once a long win streak ends...When long winning streaks come to an end, there just is a natural mental let-down, and it kind of acts like a chart-play for a game or 2...Dallas had won 11 straight (Covering 9) vs. NJ h2h before the Nets finally broke through on 3/19/06 at Home with a 100-89 win...NJ going the other way, after losing 6 straight, NJ has won 2 in a row...NJ is 1-0 SU & ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks and while DAL is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks, those numbers need to be broken down further...All 4 of the back-enders were at Home and the win vs. PHOE also had Phoe on a back-ender...Dallas also had a banged-up MEMP team and they were also on a back-ender, then it was the Wiz, a winless Road team and finally the Hornets, without West and Peja...So sorry, I am not impressed...These 2 teams have played Under 4 of the last 5 at the Meadowlands h2h...Nets have gone Over 3 straight overall...

Golden State at Houston: No line posted...Jason Richardson is expected to miss for GS...Tracy McGrady is probable for Houston...This is an automatic play for me, taking a bounce-back team after a 40-point loss and this trend is stronger when the team in this situational spot is .500 or better...HOU in a let-down spot after a dominating performance over Cleveland...GS is 2-1 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks his season...HOU has had many games in this situational spot, having rest when their opponent does not, and are just 1-4 ATS (4-1 SU) ...HOU 2-6 ATs at Home, too, despite the 7-1 SU record...HOU 6 straight Unders and GS 4 straight Overs overall so we have a conflict here...Only 7 occurrences in the last 15 years with an Un6 taking on an Ov4 and there is no strong indication either way as 4 have gone Under...Only 2 previous occurrences had the Home team with the Under6 and those split...And in all 7 occurrences, the Ov4 team had rest every game...More pertinent may be the fact that GS is 3-0 to the Under in back-enders this season...5 of the last 6 on HOU in this h2h series have gone Under...GS 9-2 ATS last 11 trips to HOU...

Sacramento at Phoenix: No line posted...No word on Artest yet...Here we go with the 4-of-5 trend again...After an 8-3 ATS start for the Away Team playing 4-of-5 vs. a rested Team, the Pacers didn't cover at DEN on SAT to make it 8-4 ATS on the year...With all of the recent winning streaks of 6 or more being snapped the last 3 days (ORL a 6-gamer on SAT, DET an 8-gamer on SUN, and DAL a 12-gamer on MON), is it the Suns' turn to have their 6-game winning streak snapped?...Problem is PHOE has been tough at Home in NOV and DEC when they have rest and their opponent does not last year and this season...2-1 ATS already this season...SAC 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks and 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the Road in this spot...on the Road with a 3-2-1 ATS record and they are 4-2 to the Over...SAC has covered 6 of 8 overall and 3 of 4 in PHOE h2h vs. the Suns and those same exact numbers apply to the Over...SAC 3-1 to the Over on back-enders this season...

Atlanta at Seattle: Revenge spot here for the Hawks after an OT loss to SEA on 11/11...Problem is SEA has won and covered 6 straight in this h2h series and 4 of those went Over...SEA had been Under 5 of 6 overall, but suddenly 2 straight Overs and ATL has 3 straight Overs after 5 of 6 Under...ATL has slipped to 4th in the league in FG% allowed while SEA is still dead last...

Miami at LA Clippers: Gary Payton is questionable for Miami...The Staples Center has seen a lot of basketball to this point of the season as the Clips and lakers have had a ton of Home games...,Pat Riley has straightened things out a bit for MIA as they have won 3 of their last 4 and Covered all 4 games...The Clips shot 60% their last game, so a knee-jerk reaction for me to fade them here, but they are still a bit of a chart-play as they have Covered 2 out of 3 after a NC7...Don't know if I can lay that many points, though...No read or angle to this point on the total, but 4 of the alst 5 between these 2 have gone Over h2h...

================================================== =====================

brewers7
12-05-2006, 10:18 PM
Tough, tough loss last night, but glad I got something back with the 1Q bet and am glad I didn't raise my bet to $200 just yet as I did increase my bankroll to the point where it was time to increase the bet slightly (like I did after I got a little bit over $1000 up, as I bumped plays up to $150), but I smelled a cold streak and decided to hold off bumping my bet up a bit until this mini-storm passes...Went 5-9 on all picks yesterday for my 4th losing day out of 34 days, but my top 3 Sides went 3-0 and I have always considered those my money-plays, but the rest of the picks went to shit...I have been doing this for a while and can sometimes sniff out the impending cold streaks...I will lower my bet until I see more consistency on my part...And you should, too...

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 41-23, +$2126

Sides: 18-10, +$907, Totals: 14-10, +$701, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 4-0, +$300

================================================== ======================

Tuesday, December 5

Golden State/Houston under 193.5 -- $102 to win $100 --- (or GS/Hou under 193.5 @1.980, 1/10, Pinnacle)

Like both the Side and Total here as I think GS can win this straight up after a 40-point loss, but I just have a nagging gut-feeling about Houston tonight that keeps me from pulling the trigger, so I will go with the total instead...Have I gone mad taking GS Under such a "low" total?...I don't think so...GS is 3-0 to the Under in back-enders this season...5 of the last 6 trips to HOU for GS have gone Under...Following that 269 debacle at Denver, GS played the next night and had a 169 total and beat Utah outright...I feel Houston will control the pace and play half-court and slow this thing down, and quite frankly, as much as GS likes to run, they can play the half-court game if they want to just fine...HOU is playing some drastic Unders and the pace of their games have been incredibly slow recently...A team off a blow-out loss will generally make an attempt at defense the next time out, and that 269 at Denver is the example I will cite again as GS played zone and held the best shooting team at the time (Utah) to 32.5% shooting that game and Utah had been playing Overs at that time just like GS was playing Overs and we had a 169...If Houston controls the pace, then this will be at 180, tops...HOU just played a 193 against PHOE AT Phoenix, so why should this game reach 194?...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Tuesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) NJ, 2) GS, 3) Sac, 4) Port, 5) LAC, 6) Sea

Totals:

1) GS un, 2) Port ov, 3) Sac ov, 4) NJ un, 5) Sea ov, 6) LAC un

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-1 (-$100)
Last 3 days: 1-3 (-$312)
Last 7 days: 5-3 (+$288)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
================================================== ======================

GodOfGamblers
12-06-2006, 12:26 AM
that line went from 195.5 earlier to 192.5 now :unsure:

brewers7
12-06-2006, 08:22 AM
================================================== =====================

Early looks at Wednesday's games:

Orlando at Indiana: Some early pounding on the Under here as once again, an Orlando total was maybe posted too high...ORL 11-3-1 to the Under their last 15 and the Magic are second in the league in FG% allowed...6 in a row and 8 of 9 have gone Under h2h in this series...Indy is Home after their longest Road Trip of the season (6 games)...These teams have played twice already this season (once in ORL and once in Indy) and the totals for both games were 187...The Home Teams won both games, but Indy has Covered both...This is ORL's 6th and final game of their current Road Trip in which they are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS...The Pacers were beaten fairly soundly in the final 2 games of their Road trip...

Toronto at Cleveland: Chris Bosh (eye virus) and Morris Peterson are questionable for Toronto...Larry Hughes is probable for Cleveland...However, if you read the Toronto Star, both Bosh and Peterson feel ready to go on Wednesday although Bosh is going to be "re-evaluated after Wednesday morning's shoot-around" before an "official decision" is made and as far as Peterson goes, it sounds like he IS going to play but the only question is whether he starts or not...The Toronto Star also had an article talking about how Coach Sam Mitchell has officially ditched the run-and-gun-and-get-100-shots-a-game offense that the raptors worked on in the preseason and are going with "quality possessions over quantity"...The reason is because the Raptors are dead last in the league in 3-point shooting percentage...So it's hard to run a Phoenix-like offense when nobody can shoot from behind the arc...Cleveland is coming off their worst shooting game of the season and in fact, it was the worst shooting game by any team this season as CLE shot just 28.2% form the floor and scored just 63 points in an 18-point loss at Houston on Saturday...So this would be an EXTREME bounce-back spot for CLE, plus a revenge spot for an 8-point loss to the raptors at TOR on 11/22...Plus, Larry Hughes returns (although generally speaking fom a handicapping point of view, this could hurt CLE)...CLE is 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS their last 9 vs. Toronto at Home, with 6 of those games going Under...Toronto is Under 6 of their last 8 overall...

San Antonio at Charlotte: Big-time revenge spot here for SA while it is also a let-down spot for CHAR, who just beat Detroit here on Sunday...The Spurs won by 40 their last time out vs. GS with the return of Manu Ginobili...The Spurs won by 8 here last season and by 19 2 years ago in CHAR...Have to believe the key factor here is avenging the OT loss to the Bobcats at Home on 11/15 for the Spurs...These teams pretty much play right around 180, as the 187 at SA was achieved with OT, and it still stayed Under, while these teams have played every game h2h Under but 1 and that was their first meeting where they had a 189 to go Over the 187 total by a bucket...Chart-play to the Under here for Charlote as they had 5 straight Overs before going Under last time out...Spurs have gone Over 2 straight and have played a lot of Overs this season, but I wonder about this Vegas total being set a tad high here...

Memphis at Boston: Damon Stoudamire is questionable for Memphis...Wally Szczerbiak is doubtful for Boston...Still a chart-play to fade MEMP in this spot because after a C6, they are currently on a NC3...However, BOS is 1-5 SU & ATS their last 6 games...Even though BOS is 7-2 SU their last 9 games vs. MEMP, the Celtics are just 1-8 ATS in those games...Nothing significant sticking out on the total...

Washington at NY Knicks: Jerome James is questionable for NY...Yet another bad Road team comes to MSG, as in consecutive games, the 3 worst Road teams in the league are playing the Knicks at MSG...TOR won on Saturday, while MEMP could not on Monday...Now the Wiz come to MSG for the second time already this season...The Knicks have just 2 wins at MSG all year and the first was against the Wiz (by 20 on 11/15) and their 2nd win came 2 days ago...The Wiz are winless on the Road, 0-8 (3-5 ATS) and are undoubtedly tired of hearing about their futility on the Road...The Wiz are also coming off a big win vs. Dallas 2 days ago and although a let-down spot may seem to be in the cards, I feel the Wiz will use that win as a confidence and momentum builder...This is a revenge spot and I feel WASH can take this one...Total set at 206 even though this last meeting at MSG was a 184...NY 5-2 to the Under their last 7 Home games...WAS is 6-2 to the Under on the Road this season...This h2h series has 5 straight and 6 of 7 Under...

Houston at Minnesota: Revenge spot here for Minny after losing at HOU on 11/28...The Road team has won 8 of the last 10 and covered 9 of the last 10 in this h2h series...Minny 2-1 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not, but surprisingly, they are 2-0 SU & ATS on the Road and 0-1 SU & ATS at Home in this spot...HOU is 1-2 SU & ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks this season...Even though the last 2 have gone Under h2h, 6 of the previous 7 had gone Over...Minny has 4 straight Unders, while HOU had 6 straight Unders before having an Over last night, so they are suddenly a chart-play to the Over, but these teams played a 157 on 11/28, with just 144 shots and 23 FTs taken in that game...Very slow pace...Houston is now #1 in FG% allowed and Minnesota is 6th...

Portland at Milwaukee: No total posted...Charlie Villanueva and Maurice Williams are questionable for MILW (although this was the target date for Villanueva to return)...MILW 28th and PORT 29th in the league in FG% allowed...PORT 2-2 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks and MILW is 0-3 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not, with all 3 games being at Home...PORT certainly in a let-down spot off a big upset win at DET last night...MILW 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS at Home this season...These teams play Overs against each other...Pure and simple...6 straight and 9 of 11 and 14 of 17 and 21 of 27 Over h2h in this series...

Atlanta at Denver: Nene Hiliario and Joe Smith are probable for Denver...ATL 1-2 SU & ATS this season on the back-end of bk-2-bks, but in all 3 games, their opponent was also on a back-ender...DEN is rested here and are 6-1 SU & ATS their last 7...ATL has dominated this h2h series historically, winning 8 of the last 11 SU & ATS, but DEN has won 3 of the last 4, covering once...Both of the games between these 2 teams went Over last season h2h...

Philadelphia at Chicago: Kyle Korver is questionable for Philly...The Sixers are generally a fairly predictable team as they usually Cover on the Road getting points and do not Cover at Home as a Favorite...CHI has won and Covered all 3 Home games rather easily since returning from their 7-game Road trip...This is a revenge spot for CHI as their last loss came at Philly on 11/24...The Bulls have won 5 straight since then and are 4-0-1 ATS...The Sixers have lost 4 straight overall which matches their season high and hey have lost 8 of 9 with their only win coming against this Bulls' team...Are the Bulls suring up their defense now that they have had time to practice at Home and work out the kinks?...The points look good here for this ESPN game...

New Orleans at LA Lakers: No total posted...Bobby Jackson is doubtful while David West and Peja Stoyakovic are still out for NO...Kobe Bryant is now questionable (looks like a game-time decision) and Brian Cook is also questionable for LAL...Still no scorers for the Hornets, yet they somehow had a 219 at Home vs. the Bulls in their last outing last FRI, during a points-points-points weekend in the NBA...Lakers a bit of a chart-play to the under after some Overs, as they have gone Under 2 straight...5 straight and 8 of 9 have gone Over in this h2h series, with the 8 Overs all hitting at least 190...LAL has won 3 straight and 7 of 8 h2h and covered 6 of 8 in this series...The Hornets have Not Covered 5 straight overall but managed a push last time out while the lakers have Covered 3 straight Overall...

================================================== =====================

brewers7
12-06-2006, 09:26 PM
I like several tonight, but since I am in the midst of a slump that I pretty much predicted a few days back, it is wise NOT to bet sevral games and wise NOT to raise my bet when my performance has been incredibly sub-par...2 straight losing days with my tracking picks to boot, so this should be the obvious red flag for followers to back off my plays and either fade me, stay away from my picks, or lower your bet the same way I have...Money management is the key to long-term success...We are in Week 6 of a 24-week regular season, so there is a long way to go, MANY opportunities ahead, so it would be foolish to be raisng bets now and blowing big chunks of your bankroll by chasing now...Let's pull back the bets until I am back on track and "feeling it" again or just stay away from my picks for a day or 2...

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 41-24, +$2024

Sides: 18-10, +$907, Totals: 14-11, +$599, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 4-0, +$300

================================================== ======================

Wednesday, December 6

Washington Wizards Pick -- $100 to win $104 --- (or Washington @2.020, 1/10, Pinnacle)

Going back to what works for me many times, and that is, just picking the first game that jumps off the page at me...The Wizards is that game for Wednesday...The Knicks have just 2 wins at MSG all year and the first was against the Wiz (by 20 on 11/15) and their 2nd win came 2 days ago...The Wiz are winless on the Road, 0-8 (3-5 ATS) and are undoubtedly tired of hearing about their futility on the Road...The Wiz are also coming off a big win vs. Dallas 2 days ago and although a let-down spot may seem to be in the cards, I feel the Wiz will use that win as a confidence and momentum builder...This is a revenge spot and I feel WASH can take this one...Coach Eddie Jordan said before the Dallas game that he wants "fighters" and the team responded by thrashing the Mavs, leading by as many as 31 in that game...This 0-8 start on the Road is the worst start on the Road in franchise history and the players are very aware of it...It's a fairly quick revenge spot here for the Wiz and I don't see them losing twice at MSG in just a 3-week period of time...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Wednesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

pending...

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 0-1 (-$102)
Last 3 days: 1-3 (-$256)
Last 7 days: 4-4 (+$36)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
================================================== ======================

brewers7
12-06-2006, 10:05 PM
After a bad night with my Sides last night, I like my Top 4 Sides and #1 Total...I would normally bet all 5 if I wasn't in a slump the past 4 days...

================================================== ======================

Wednesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Was, 2) Phi, 3) SA, 4) Cle, 5) NO, 6) Min, 7) Ind, 8) Bos, 9) Atl, 10) Port

Totals:

1) SA un, 2) Cle un, 3) Min ov, 4) Port ov, 5) Bos ov, 6) Atl ov, 7) NO un, 8) Phi ov, 9) Was un, 10) Ind un

================================================== ======================

Olao
12-07-2006, 01:54 AM
Well played, Brewers - great call on the Wizards who paid back your faith in their first away win...and daring of you to defy the potential cold streak...

Can I ask a thing about your hit rate: you're now 42-24 for the season which is an impressive hit rate of 63.6%. What is your normal hit rate for an NBA season and do you have an aim for this season?

Thanks
Olao

GodOfGamblers
12-07-2006, 02:25 AM
back to the winning way aye b7 :)

brewers7
12-07-2006, 09:23 AM
back to the winning way aye b7 :)

Hopefully, sir...Hopefully...



Well played, Brewers - great call on the Wizards who paid back your faith in their first away win...and daring of you to defy the potential cold streak...

Can I ask a thing about your hit rate: you're now 42-24 for the season which is an impressive hit rate of 63.6%. What is your normal hit rate for an NBA season and do you have an aim for this season?

Thanks
Olao


Winning percentage doesn't concern me...My first year posting on a forum 4 seasons ago, a friend bet me I could not post 70% winners from late January (the time I signed up) until the end of the regular season in mid-April for my NBA sides...So I was very selective and went 66-28, going 1-0 on the last day of the regular season to hit 70.2%...

But I am more concerned with profit...

I am simply trying to make profit every week...Some weeks it won't happen, but that is my goal...

GL to ya, sir...

================================================== =====================

Early looks at Thursday's games:

Phoenix at New Jersey: Steve Nash is expected to play for PHOE...The Suns had domintaed this h2h series since Coach Mike D'Antoni came to town until 3/27/06, when NJ throttled PHOE at The Meadowlands by 38, and it wasn't even that close...NJ then got a push at PHOE 2 weeks ago, even though all their starters had been pulled in the 4Q as they were being obliterated, but the NJ subs brought them back to lose by 6...NY was embarrassed last time out at Home by Dallas and now the ESPN talking heads are calling into question the heart of Jason Kidd and Vince Carter and this NJ team...That shouldn't sit well with the Nets, but will it even matter?...The Suns have won 7 straight overall and begin a Road trip here on THUR...3 straight and 5 of 6 Unders in this h2h series...

Detroit at Dallas: Detroit had won 8 straight before losing at CHAR and then PORT at Home their last 2 outings...Dallas has won 13 of 14...The Mavs throttled Detroit by 37 at Home last year, but DET was in a bad situational spot for that one...7 of the last 9 in this h2h series have gone Over...DET Under 3 of the last 4 and Dallas Under 8 of the last 10...This is an ESPN game and these games, for whatever reason, seem to find their ways Over the total (in non-playoff games)...

Miami at Sacramento: No total posted...Ron Artest is questionable for Sacramento...Miami has won 5 straight in this h2h series and they have Covered 6 straight and 8 of 9 vs. SAC...The Heat have Covered 5 straight overall, winning 3 of those games...SAC has lost 4 straight overall and are playing their 5th game in 7 days...SAC was 2-3 SU & 1-1-3 ATS in their 5th game in 7 days last season, but all 5 games were on the Road...6 of the last 8 in this h2h series have gone Under...Both teams are struggling, but Miami seems to a lot more competitive since Dwayne Wade has taken over point-guard duties...6 points looks like a lot at first blush, IMO...

================================================== =====================

GodOfGamblers
12-07-2006, 10:34 PM
Winning percentage doesn't concern me...My first year posting on a forum 4 seasons ago, a friend bet me I could not post 70% winners from late January (the time I signed up) until the end of the regular season in mid-April for my NBA sides...So I was very selective and went 66-28, going 1-0 on the last day of the regular season to hit 70.2%...

But I am more concerned with profit...

I am simply trying to make profit every week...Some weeks it won't happen, but that is my goal...

GL to ya, sir...
================================================== =====================

I noticed that you had 1 or 2 pick every day but do you also play your side bet? And is that mean that you play the side bet with something like $10 each since you play about $150 on your main one.

Imagine you playing with $1500 per bet and with that 70% winning rate, you will be rich :yeah:

brewers7
12-07-2006, 10:55 PM
Sorry folks, but had some family issues to deal with today...Keeping it small and may ramp it up this weekend again...

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 42-24, +$2128

Sides: 19-10, +$1011, Totals: 14-11, +$599, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 4-0, +$300

================================================== ======================

Thursday, December 7

Detroit Pistons +7 -- $104 to win $100 --- (or Detroit +7 hcp @1.971, 1/10, Pinnacle)
Detroit Pistons Pick -- $25 to win $65 --- (or Detroit Pick @3.600, .25/10, Pinnacle)

The Pistons got blistered by 37 last year here, but they were in a bad situational spot that game...DET had just beaten HOU the night before and were the last undefeated team in the league at that point at 8-0 and Dallas had 2 days rest...The Pistons obviously were sleepwalking through their their last 2 games against CHAR and PORT...Detroit WILL be motivated for this one...Dallas is still going to be in a bit of a let-down mode after the winning streak ended, and the Pistons are not as bad as their last 2 losses, and that is obe thing you need to remember about the NBA and the constant momentum shifts...A team is generally not as good as their last win or as bad as their last loss...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Thursday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Det, 2) NJ, 3) Mia

Totals:

1) NJ un, 2) Mia ov, 3) Det ov

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$104)
Last 3 days: 2-2 (-$98)
Last 7 days: 4-4 (-$10)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
================================================== ======================

GodOfGamblers
12-08-2006, 12:38 AM
I am going again you in this one B7!

Phoenix, Detroit, Miami win.. all road team this one :)

Phoenix OVER, Detroit UNDER.

Olao
12-08-2006, 02:41 AM
Well played, Brewers - nailed that one thoroughly.

xcrap
12-08-2006, 03:03 AM
*bows down to the master* :)

brewers7
12-08-2006, 10:16 AM
================================================== =====================

Early looks at Friday's games:

Houston at Charlotte: How low can we go here?...Both h2h games at CHAR were Unders and the Bobcats have a chart-play to the Under...3 of the last 4 h2h have gone Under in regulation time...(once in ORL and once in Indy) and the totals for both games were 187...Both h2h games at CHAR between these two have gone to Overtime...Overall, HOU has gone Under 7 of 8...HOU leads the league now in FG% allowed while CHAR is 4th...

Detroit at Orlando: Can this be anything but a let-down spot for Detroit?...Big win last night at Dallas and now they go and play the Magic coming off a fairly decisive loss at Indiana...Detroit's defense improving as they are now 12th in the league in FG% allowed while Orlando is 2nd...DET is 4-2 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks this season, but 1-1 ATS on the Road...ORL just 2-3 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not, but they haven't lost 2 straight since Week 1 of the season...The last 2 in this h2h series have gone Under after 7 straight Overs...

Portland at Indiana: Indy has won and covered 6 straight in this h2h series and 4 of the last 5 in this h2h series at Indy have gone Under...Both teams have gone Under in their last 2 games overall...Gotta wonder here if Indy has an eye on their game at Cleveland on Saturday...PORT on their 3rd game of a 6-game Road trip...

Phoenix at Boston: No lines posted...Wally Szczerbiak is doubtful for Boston...Gotta wonder how much gas ins in the Phoenix tank after playing a double-OT thriller Thursday night at NJ, with 318 points scored?...PHOE lost a 152-149 double-OT game at Home vs. SEA last season on 1/22/06, and DID go Over their next game at Orlando, but they had a day's rest for the Orlando game...PHOE had 3 starters play more than 46 minutes last night...PHOE has now won 8 in a row, too...Boston has lost 4 in a row...The Away Team in this h2h series has 5 of the last 6...The last 2 in this h2h series have gone Under after there had been 5 Overs and a push the previous 6 meetings...

LA Clippers at San Antonio: Getting Manu Ginobili back seems to have been just the antidote the Spurs needed to get rolling...Since Ginobili's return, the Spurs demolished GS by 40 and then thrashed the Bobcats by 20 at CHAR...This is not what the Clippers need to hear...Why?...As they said in the movie Slapshot, San Antonio "OWNS" the Clippers in recent years, winning 29 of the last 33 games in this h2h series (21-11-1 ATS), including 9 of the last 10...The Spurs have also won 7 straight and are 16-1 SU & 13-3-1 ATS vs. the Clips at Home the last 17 meetings...And when it goes bad, it goes bad because the Clips played GREAT at SA last year on 12/13/05 and lost by 8 in OT (outscored 11-3) to NOT Cover the 7-point spread...The Clips continue to under-achieve, but I wonder if they can rise up here and get under the Vegas number?...The last 25 meetings in this h2h2 series sees an 18-5-2 tally to the Under (and one of the pushes was the aforementioned OT game)...So the last 3 at SA h2h have gone Under in regulation and 9 of the last 13 in SA have gone Under...

Utah at Minnesota: Fishy line here with minny as an early FAV...Of course, I am not one bit surprised to see 91% of the early bets going on Utah and this has been the heaviest bet game at this juncture of the morning...Is Vegas giving us a free winner here?...Are the powers-at-be that reside at Zip Code 89109 in their Ivory Towers with their Magic 8-ball saying "Merry Christmas" early to people paying attention??...Is Vegas telling us to go ahead and bet the farm on Minny, or are they SCREAMING at us to also add the beach house to the bet on Minny here?... Utah will be a FAV by mid-afternoon on Friday or my name is not brewers7 (well, ok, it isn't, but still)...Because where is the evidence to show Minny is going to win this one?...Utah won the last 3 games h2h last season including winning both games at Minnesota comfortably...Is Utah looking ahead to a Dallas tilt at Home on 12/11, their next game?...Minny has Covered 7 of their last 8 and have gone Under 5 straight overall...Utah has become an Under team since AK47 has gotten settled back in after his return from injury as Utah is under 4 of their last 6 overall...Minny is 3rd now in FG% allowed and Utah is 12th...

Washington at Philadelphia: No lines posted...Allen Iverson is questionable for Philly...WAS got their first Road win of the season, winning by 11 at MSG vs. the Knicks their last time out while Philly has come crashing back to reality in a big way after a surprising 3-0 start...Since then, Philly has gone 2-12, losing 5 straight and 9 of 10...The Sixers did nothing to upgrade their team in the offseason and they are going nowhere this season, even in the pathetic Atlantic Division, where 38 wins will be a lock to get someboady a division title...Philly will be lucky to get 28...Now that I am done bashing my team, I will glance at this matchup and see that the home Team has won 6 of the alst 7 in this h2h series, going 5-2 ATS...Philly's perimeter defense was horrid last time out at CHI, as the Bulls had wide-open looks all night long and shot an NBA-high 61.5% from the field in that demolition on ESPN...Well, guess what?...The Wiz have some decent outside shooters last time I looked...Arenas, Butler & Jamison may combine for another 80 on Friday (they combined for 81 at MSG last time out)...But strictly from a handicapping point of view, I would think Philly would bounce-back from that 27-point debacle on National TV last time out...Yet I see a Wizards team who may be hitting their stride now after losing 7 of 8, because they have now won 4 of 5 and their coach asked for "fighters" earlier in the week and the team has responded with a Home throttling of Dallas and followed that up wih their first Road win...2 teams going in opposite directions here, and you might even say there is a chart-play to take WAS after 8 straight Road losses, they now have their first win...These teams have gone Over 7 of their last 10 h2h...

Toronto at Chicago: Morris Peterson is available to play for Toronto...Tyrus Thomas is questionable for Chicago...The Bulls are rolling, rolling, rolling --RAWHIDE since that disastrous 7-game Road trip, where they lost thei first 6 games...They won their finale at MSG and then have moved on to win 5 more in a row, bringing their win streak to 6, Covering 5 and pushing once...I guess people aren't talking or caring too much about Ben Wallace and his headband any more...Toronto is also taking the same trek they did last year...After starting 0-8 SU & ATS last season, Toronto went on to become the best ATS team in the league from that point onwards...Toronto started this season 1-6 ATS, and since then have been a Cover machine, going 9-2 ATS...Do you want to talk about a Moneyline chart-play?...How about this...The Bulls are 13-0 SU & ATS against Toronto the last 13 meetings...Yes, 13-0 SU AND ATS...But here's the funny part...Toronto had won the previous 16 meetings between these 2 teams...And before that, CHI had won 8 straight...Ok, enough...But 13 straight SU & ATS cannot be ignored...8 of the last 12 have gone Over h2h...TOR Under 7 of their last 9 and have ditched that run-and-gun offense...

Memphis at Milwaukee: Charlie Villanueva is questionable for MILW...Even when MEMP wasn't very good, they had a good record vs. the Eastern Conference, and once again, The Griz are 4-5 vs. the East, while being just 1-8 vs. the West SU...MILW has Covered 4 of 5 (including their miracle OT Cover last time out) after a NC5 overall...MEMP won last time out at BOS...MEMP is 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS vs. Milwaukee the last 8 h2h meetings...6 of these 8 have gone Under...

New Orleans at Seattle: No lines posted...Bobby Jackson is doubtful while David West and Peja Stoyakovic are still out for NO...Ray Allen expected to miss for SEA...This is the second game without Ray Allen for the Sonics...They rose up and beat Atlanta fairly comfortably last time out, but I wouldn't expect the same here...It is typical for teams to rise up that first game without a star player to win...But the let-down spot occurs next time out...Well, today is the next time out and the streaky Hornets are coming to town, not Santa Claus...The Hornets were a streaky ATS team last year and are picking up right where they left off this year...C3, NC4, C4, NC4, Push, now a Cover last time out in an impressive upset win at Staples over the Lakers...How did that happen?...They finally made the adjustment necessary to play well without 3 of their top scorers, who have been M.I.A. for several games now...The Hornets broke out offensively vs. CHI at Home for 108 points after a 77, 73, 79 & 83, with all 5 games being losses...But then they got 4 days off to reset the offense with the new pieces and came out with 105 as they beat the lakers on the Road by 16...They had 2 days off before the previous 2 games, too, and things clicked finally offensively in the 111-108 loss to Chicago, but now the final adjustments must have been made as they are now doing just fine offensively despite missing 3 of their 4 top guns...Obviously a chart-play here for the hornets and I don't see a let-down here, either, this team is just too streaky...The Hornets won 3 of the 4 meetings last season...3 of those games went Over, too, but I wonder about too many Overs without Ray-Ray, as the Sonics did stay Under without him last time out...

Atlanta at LA Lakers: Speedy Claxton is questionable for Atlanta...OK, we have a serious bounce-back spot for the Lakers and Atlanta is off an upset win at Denver last time out which brings us to our NBA Handicapping 101 Rule that states you always: Take the good bounce-back team off a loss vs. the bad let-down team off a win...And we are talking about a team that was an 8.5-point Fav last time out losing by 16 at Home now playing a team that was a 12-point Dog last time out who won straight up on the Road...Now before I hit the Submit button on a wager equaling half my bankroll, I must point out that this handicapping Rule of Thumb generally works better when we are not dealing with 9-point chalk...I hate laying chalk in the NBA, and especially anything over 6, but for me, it is Lakers or no bet here...

ATL did win outright here last season at Staples on 2/15/06, but this was coming off a 25-point pounding at SAC and they had 2 days rest to lick their wounds and the Lakers perhaps had a Valentine's Day hangover from eating too much chocolate...ATL has actually won 3 of the last 5 trips into Staples...I vividly remember ATL losing by 46 here on 1/9/04, but that was bad, bad luck because an angry Lakers team with Kobe, SHAQ, Peyton and the Mailman had just lost 4 straight on the Road and were coming off a 22-point pounding at Denver 2 days prior so there was no mercy shown to the Hawks that night...Anyway, I don't see a 46-point win here, but I do see a win, but I wonder if there is a look-ahead here for LAL as the Spurs come to Staples on Sunday...That might be enough to keep me off the lake-Show, but I see a more focused and concerted effort here and besides, Kobe wasn't 100% last time out and he'll be healthier tonight...The last 4 in this h2h series have gone Over, but since ATL put up a 194 at Denver, how does this go Over 198??...

Miami at Denver: Nene Hiliario and Joe Smith are questionable for Denver...The Heat continue to roll, or at least, Cover the spread, as they are 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS their last 6...MIA is 2-1 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks this season so far...DEN is 2-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not, but did not Cover in this spot last time out, losing outright vs. the Hawks...Denver has won 3 straight h2h vs. Miami, including a win over the Heat on 11/14...Revenge spot here for Miami?...Do they have enough left on this 4th and final game of this Road trip in the high altitude?...I am not too sure how focused DEN will be here when they go to Dallas on Saturday...They are in bounce-back mode and MIA is off a hard-fought Road OT-win on Thursday at SAC...These teams Over 4 of the last 5 h2h...

================================================== =====================

sports freak
12-08-2006, 11:59 AM
Love ur work champ,keep up the great work!!Awesome write-ups!!

Mr Flamboyant
12-08-2006, 12:47 PM
Love ur work champ,keep up the great work!!Awesome write-ups!!

I'm a true 'brew' believer too .. ;)

Mr Flamboyant
12-08-2006, 01:00 PM
Brewers, I like your reasoning on the Atlanta / Lakers UNDER call .. When my head was screwed on properly for the last three weeks and I was actually being selective with my plays (instead of panicking and chasing this week) I loved to use the likes of Phoenix and Denver as measuring sticks for "why team x or y should go under a number that's higher than the one they went UNDER with the SUns and Nuggs" ..

Anyway, just my thoughts .. look forward to your plays for friday .. your writeups and reasonings are a massive eye opener .. love em

sports freak
12-08-2006, 01:01 PM
I'm a true 'brew' believer too .. ;)

:haha: i believe too :)

sports freak
12-08-2006, 01:03 PM
Brewers, I like your reasoning on the Atlanta / Lakers UNDER call .. When my head was screwed on properly for the last three weeks and I was actually being selective with my plays (instead of panicking and chasing this week) I loved to use the likes of Phoenix and Denver as measuring sticks for "why team x or y should go under a number that's higher than the one they went UNDER with the SUns and Nuggs" ..

Anyway, just my thoughts .. look forward to your plays for friday .. your writeups and reasonings are a massive eye opener .. love em

Agree on the unders,looks good!!

brewers7
12-08-2006, 09:48 PM
================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 44-24, +$2293

Sides: 20-10, +$1111, Totals: 14-11, +$599, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 2-1, +$94, Quarters: 4-0, +$300

================================================== ======================

Friday, December 8

Orlando Magic -4.5 -- $105 to win $100 --- (or Orlando -4.5 hcp @1.952, 1/10, Pinnacle)

Can this be anything but a let-down spot for Detroit?...Big win last night at Dallas and now they go and play the Magic coming off a fairly decisive loss at Indiana...Chauncy Billips is questionable and ESPN News said he "may not play" tonight...He twaked his hamstring and anybody who knows anything about hamstring injuries and playing sports knows that that type of injury is nothing to mess around with and that a hamstring injury of any kind heals slowly...If Billips plays, I may get burned here, but I am taking a shot at him being "out" here and beating the line move if he is announced "out"...And besides, this situation is somewhat similar to a spot earlier in the season where the Pistons lost 2 straight and then went into Staples to face the Lakers in a nationally televised game and won convincingly by 14...Then they got obliterated at GS the following night in a let-down spot by 32...ORL would love to send a message here that they may be the new Beasts of the East, so even though they have taken advantage of a fairly soft schedue getting some teams in favorable spots, BUT, with that said, ORL went into Utah with AK47 and won convincingly by 13, so this Magic team is no fluke...

New Orleans Hornets +3.5 -- $108 to win $100 --- (or New Orleans +3.5 hcp @1.926, 1/10, Pinnacle)
New Orleans Hornets Pick -- $25 to win $36 --- (or New Orleans Pick @2.430, .25/10, Pinnacle)

This is the second game without Ray Allen for the Sonics...They rose up and beat Atlanta fairly comfortably last time out, but I wouldn't expect the same here...It is typical for teams to rise up that first game without a star player to win...But the let-down spot occurs next time out...Well, today is the next time out and the streaky Hornets are coming to town, not Santa Claus...The Hornets were a streaky ATS team last year and are picking up right where they left off this year...C3, NC4, C4, NC4, Push, now a Cover last time out in an impressive upset win at Staples over the Lakers...How did that happen?...They finally made the adjustment necessary to play well without 3 of their top scorers, who have been M.I.A. for several games now...The Hornets broke out offensively vs. CHI at Home for 108 points after a 77, 73, 79 & 83, with all 5 games being losses...But then they got 4 days off to reset the offense with the new pieces and came out with 105 as they beat the lakers on the Road by 16...They had 2 days off before the previous 2 games, too, and things clicked finally offensively in the 111-108 loss to Chicago, but now the final adjustments must have been made as they are now doing just fine offensively despite missing 3 of their 4 top guns...Obviously a chart-play here for the Hornets and I don't see a let-down here, either, this team is just too streaky...The Hornets won 3 of the 4 meetings last season...And one more point about Seattle...They rose up without Ray Allen and shot 55% last time out in a decisive win vs. Atlanta, holding them to 38%...Big let-down spot for SEA after that win without Allen here tonight...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Friday's Picks for tracking purposes:

pending...

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 2-0 (+$165)
Last 3 days: 3-1 (+$167)
Last 7 days: 5-4 (+$5)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
================================================== ======================

brewers7
12-08-2006, 10:32 PM
================================================== ======================

Friday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) NO, 2) Orl, 3) LAC, 4) Den, 5) Was, 6) Min, 7) Char, 8) Memp, 9) LAL, 10) Bos, 11) Port, 12) Tor

Totals:

1) Bos ov, 2) Orl un, 3) LAC un, 4) Tor ov, 5) Was un, 6) LAL un, 7) NO un, 8) Min un, 9) Port un, 10) Char un, 11) Den ov, 12) Memp un

================================================== ======================

brewers7
12-09-2006, 08:17 AM
Bad night...Down 1.5 units this week with 2 days to go...Long way to go this season, don't get careless with your money management folks...The Hornets was a bad pick, pure and simple as I over-analyzed that one and got away from my basic principles, passing on games like Denver and the Lakers, two situational spots I usually bet 9 out of 10 times and passed, while I took the Hornets in a spot I would bet 1 out of 10 times and just got too cute...I also passed on Minny, a game I stated in my previews that was an early Christmas gift given to us by Vegas and I didn't have the guts to play it when in recent years I would not have hesitated...

Back to basics...

There may be other plays, we'll see...

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 44-27, +$2055

Sides: 20-12, +$898, Totals: 14-11, +$599, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 2-2, +$69, Quarters: 4-0, +$300

================================================== ======================

Saturday, December 9

Los Angeles Clippers -2 -- $202 to win $200 --- (or LAC -2 hcp @1.990, 2/10, Pinnacle)

Bought up 1/2 a point here...The Clips were 3-1 SU last season after a loss by 20 or more points their previous game...MEMP is 0-5 SU and the Clips are 3-2 SU in the back-end of bk-2-bks this season...LAC is 1-0 and MEMP is 0-3 SU when they and their opponent are both in the back-end of bk-2-bks...These teams already met under those conditions at Staples on 11/29 and the Clips won by 15 after losing 5 straight and being on a NC7 at that time...The Clippers are the only team in the league without a Road win, and this will not go on forever and if you need proof of that, look at what the Wizards did this week after being winless on the Road on the season...Coach Mike Dunleavy pulled Elton Brand late in the 3Q and only played Sam Cassell 9 minutes total Friday in an obvious attempt to save these guys for the back-ender at Memphis on Saturday...Here are 2 quotes from the Los Angeles Times:

"It was embarrassing, man, just embarrassing," Elton Brand said. "That wasn't a game, it was a clinic on how to play hard and play winning basketball. They played hard, shared the ball and worked together. That's what we want to do."

"It was just a good old butt whuppin'," Sam Cassell said. "It was old-fashioned, just like the one your grandmama used to give you. We just didn't put forth an effort and it showed."

The Clips were throttled from start to finish in San Antonio and that puts them in bounce-back mode tonight...They aren't playing well, but a thrashing like this has a way of galvanizing a team and giving them proper motivation, focus and effort their next time out and sometimes getting on the court the very next night is the perfect antidote to cure some frustrations from a bad loss...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Saturday's Picks for tracking purposes:

pending...

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 0-3 (-$238)
Last 3 days: 3-3 (+$31)
Last 7 days: 4-7 (-$383)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
================================================== ======================

brewers7
12-09-2006, 09:07 PM
Sorry guys, no previews today as I still have 14 NHL and 15 NFL games to handicap as well as the 9 NBA games already done...Some days it just won't be possible to have time for previews...

================================================== ======================

Saturday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) LAC, 2) GS, 3) Bos, 4) Phi, 5) Hou, 6) Ind, 7) Milw, 8) Den, 9) Min

Totals:

1) Phi un, 2) Ind un, 3) Den ov, 4) Milw ov, 5) Bos ov, 6) Hou ov, 7) LAC un, 8) Min ov, 9) GS un

================================================== ======================

brewers7
12-10-2006, 05:14 PM
Action bet on:

Portland +7.5, $55 to win $50

Chris Bosh is OUT...Won't bet bigger because Randolph is suspended and I wonder if TOR rises up here w/o Bosh...

brewers7
12-10-2006, 06:51 PM
The PORT bet was a last-second as I had the satellite on and they announced Bosh OUT as the "big story" as soon as the telecast came on at 1:00, so I quick bet it and posted it as soon as I could...

May or may not have a bet later, I would say probably not, but the PHOE over looks decent to me as the Bobcats should be able to score here without Knight...


================================================== ======================

Sunday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Port, 2) GS, 3) Char, 4) LAL, 5) Sac

Totals:

1) Port un, 2) Char ov, 3) GS ov, 4) LAL ov, 5) Sac un

================================================== ======================

GodOfGamblers
12-10-2006, 11:11 PM
Action bet on:

Portland +7.5, $55 to win $50

Chris Bosh is OUT...Won't bet bigger because Randolph is suspended and I wonder if TOR rises up here w/o Bosh...

You made the right decision b7. Portland won 93-83.