NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)...

brewers7
11-13-2006, 10:46 AM
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Early looks at Monday's games (Bets will come later):

Orlando at Boston: This game is opening at a Pick and about 198 and the Home team in this head-to-head series has won 8 of the last 10 against the other and 7 of the last 9 have gone Over...Doc Rivers' days may be numbered in minutes if the Celts don't turn around this 1-5 start...Kind of a chart-play here for me...The Celtics didn't Cover any of their first 5 games (one push) and then an easy Cover at CLE on Saturday, a game which they led by 25 and lost by 1...Of course, ORL is also a chart-play for me as they had a NC5 end on Saturday also, with a thumping and a Cover at Minny, so that angle is a wash-out...The one trend that sticks out here on the Side is that Boston is 9-1 SU and ATS the last 10 and 14-2 SU and ATS the last 16 against Orlando AT Boston...Hard to argue against those numbers, especially with the motivational factor being on the Celtics' side after that tough loss and Orlando off a nice Road win at Minny...I am not seeing any angle on the total to sink my teeth into at all, so the gut has to take over and the gut says Under...

Seattle at New Jersey: NJ did indeed rise up without Richard Jefferson to win and Cover in a dramatic OT win at Washington on Sunday...The numbers that draw my attention here are these:

N KRSTIC C 45:33 10-18 2-2 2 8 10 0 2 0 0 22
V CARTER G 41:45 10-22 9-10 0 2 2 7 5 3 2 34
J KIDD G 44:18 5-13 4-7 0 11 11 18 2 4 3 15

In bold you see the minutes played by 3 key starters on Sunday...Surely a let-down spot here for NJ even though the Nets have been a team not prone to let-downs the last few years...Also, SEA has trouble winning in NJ...However, a second straight game without Jefferson will be tough...They rose up without him on Sunday (like Detroit rose up without Rip Hamilton against the Lakers on Friday -- and looked at what happened at GS the next night), but can they do so again?...Now NJ is at Home while DET was on the Road, but this is still just a flat-out let-down spot no matter how you look at it...I wish I was around to grab the opening line, but I'll settle for the 3.5 here...This is the final game of the Seattle road trip and their 5th game in 7 days, but fatigue won't be a factor here for them as they sat in their hotel rooms all day and watched the NFL while NJ played a tough OT game...SEA is playing well, too, beating Miami the whole game before losing late, losing to Orlando on a buzzer-beater prayer, and then responding to beat Charlotte and a red-hot Atlanta team...No opinion at all on the total but 4 of the last 5 between these two at NJ went Over...

Cleveland at NY Knicks: Again, it's the Knicks, so I feel almost contractually obligated to pick the Over here...This is my top total, but a bet may not be forthcoming as the head-to-head series has produced 8 Unders in the last 9 meetings...But why is my gut screaming at me, saying, "LeBron will score 40 with 9 assists and 8 boards and this will be a shoot-out"?...Tough call...I may wait and see if the Knicks go Under in the 1H (NY had gone Under in each of their first 6 games in the 1H before going Over at SA last time out), and if that happens, perhaps place a bet on the 2H Over as they have gone Over 5 of their 7 games (1 was OT-aided), although Under their past two 2H's...The Cavs have lost 3 straight times at MSG, which logically makes the Knicks a play here as they look for their first Home win of the season...I just wonder if the Cavs' horrible start vs. Boston last time out will motivate them into a strong start out of the gate in this contest which makes me contemplate a 1Q bet on CLE, although that "bet" may never get out of the contemplation phase, although Cleveland is 2-0 SU and ATS on the Road this season in the 1Q...

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brewers7
11-13-2006, 11:16 AM
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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ################################################## ##############
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
################################################## ##############
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
################################################## ##############
Season To Date: 20-10, +$1079

Sides: 8-3, +$447, Totals: 7-5, +$286, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-0, +$300, ML: 0-1, -$50, Quarters: 1-0, +$100

System Plays: 0-0

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Monday, November 13

Seattle SuperSonics +3.5 -- $162 to win $150

NJ did indeed rise up without Richard Jefferson to win and Cover in a dramatic OT win at Washington on Sunday...3 key NJ starters played extended minutes in the OT win at Washington...Surely a let-down spot here for NJ even though the Nets have been a team not prone to let-downs the last few years...Also, SEA has trouble winning in NJ...However, a second straight game without Jefferson will be tough...They rose up without him on Sunday (like Detroit rose up without Rip Hamilton against the Lakers on Friday -- and look at what happened at GS the next night)...Can NJ rise up again without Jefferson?...Now NJ is at Home while DET was on the Road, but this is still just a flat-out let-down spot no matter how you look at it...I wish I was around to grab the opening line, but I'll settle for the 3.5 here...This is the final game of the Seattle road trip and their 5th game in 7 days, but fatigue won't be a factor here for them as they sat in their hotel rooms all day and watched the NFL while NJ played a tough OT game...SEA is playing well, too, beating Miami the whole game before losing late, losing to Orlando on a buzzer-beater prayer, and then responding to beat Charlotte and a red-hot Atlanta team...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Monday's Picks for tracking purposes:

1) Sea, 2) Bos, 3) NY

Totals:

1) NY ov, 2) Bos un, 3) NJ ov

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$100)
Last 3 days: 3-3 (-$19)
Last 7 days: 9-4 (+$1081)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
################################################## ###############
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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Mr Flamboyant
11-13-2006, 11:39 AM
Love your work Brewers .. good stuff .. :yeah:

brewers7
11-14-2006, 04:51 AM
Love your work Brewers .. good stuff .. :yeah:

Thanx...Appreciate it...
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Before this line goes up any further (opened at 208 and is now 211 -- I was sleeping at the wheel)...

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Tuesday, November 14

Toronto/Golden State over 211 -- $165 to win $150

Toronto has gone Over 4 straight and only shot higher than 42% from the floor in one of those 4 games...GS put up 121 and 111 points in their first 2 games of this homestand against teams that aren't exactly offensive juggernauts (NO is 22nd and Detroit is 26th in points per game) and the 237 total against NO on 11/9 came against a NO team that is 3rd in the league in FG% allowed...The Raptors are 29th in FG% allowed...Toronto Coach Sam Mitchell has changed his starting lineup, demoting Mo Peterson (who didn't talk to reporters after practice on Monday) in place of Fred Jones and Mitchell said he did this to help jump-start the offense in the first quarter (as if they're not putting up enough shots per game already) because Jones has arguably been the team's best scorer since the preseason...So Mitchell wants MORE offense in the 1Q...I am guessing this total will continue to climb towards 215, so I'll grab it now...There should be points a-plenty here...

Good Luck...brewers7
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brewers7
11-14-2006, 08:38 AM
A bet has been posted already for Tuesday...
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I forgot to post my Week 2 picks record for Sides & Totals:

Week 1 -- Sides 28-14-2 and Totals 25-19
Week 2 -- Sides 30-22 and Totals 33-19

Overall --- Sides 58-36-2 and Totals 58-38

(61.1% combined on all picks for the season before Week 3 which will not hold up much longer)...

#1 Sides 10-3 thru Week 2
#1 Totals 8-5 thru Week 2
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Early looks at Tuesday's games:

Milwaukee at Atlanta: Milwaukee did not lose more than 4 in a row all of last season...They have currently lost 4 straight...They had beaten Atlanta 5 straight times before ATL ended that string on 4/15/06...ATL had won 4 straight before losing to Seattle in OT their last time out...The Bucks need a win and many will say ATL is playing over their heads, so I like MILW here...Is ATL suddenly an Over team now?...MILW was a chart-lovers dream, starting the season with 5 Overs, then 7 Unders and then 6 Overs in their next 7 as they were steaky like that with their totals almost the entire season...The Bucks have 5 straight Overs and 6 of 7 and ATL now has 3 straight Overs (the first was OT-aided) after 3 unders to start the year...I have to take the Over...

Denver at Miami: The Nuggets swept Miami last season and have won 6 of the last 8 against them...Miami starting slow again at Home this year, just 1-3 ATS so far...The Heat's only Home Cover came after that 42-point loss on opening night, and since Houston thrashed them by 22 at Home 2 days ago, this might be enough of a motivational edge to take Miami here, although Denver has yet to lose by more than 3 points all season...Denver has also gone Over 4 straight, but Miami has gone Under comfortably in all 4 Home games this season, with their highest total being 177...I don't see Denver playing a game in the 170s all year, but I have to look seriously at the Under here as Denver has not flown Over in their 3 Away games and actually had their only under on the Road...

Charlotte at New Orleans: The Hornets haven't won since starting the season 4-0...And NO has covered all 4 meetings vs the Bobcats, winning the last 3...These are 2 of the top 3 defensive teams in the league in terms of FG% allowed, so I certainly expect an Under here...However, I do think the Bobcats cover here as they had 29 turnovers their last outing, and only about 70 teams have had more turnovers in a game the last 15 seasons, spanning over 18,000 games...After a high number of turnovers like that, a team generally makes a concerted effort to protect the ball their next game so I expect the Bobcats to be focused and be in this game right to the buzzer...Hornets haven't covered 4 straight and were a very streaky ATS team last year, too...

Portland at Minnesota: This line looks too high at first blush considering how well PORT has played thus far and how badly Minny has played thus far...So why is this 8 points?...Is it because Vegas is giving us a free winner here?...72% of the early money is pounding the Dog (which is very unusual in the NBA) yet the line really hasn't moved yet (at Pinny anyway)...Minny has lost 4 straight after starting 2-0...PORT has won 3 straight head-to-head meetings against Minny, including an 88-86 win at PORT on 11/4/06...Be very hard for me not to take the points but this line is fishy to me and makes me think that the quick revenge angle (which I believe is 4-1 ATS this season already) may be in play here for taking Minny...This would seem to be a stone Under situation here as these teams have played 8 straight Unders h2h and 11 of 12 Under...

Chicago at Dallas: The Mavs are getting healthier and deeper and are just waiting for Josh Howard to return so they'll be at full strength...They have won and covered 2 straight after going 0-4 SU and ATS t start the season...They have some momentum now...They will also be looking for their first Home win of the season shockingly enough as they are 0-2...The Bulls did win and Cover their last game vs. Indy despite shooting just 38%...Dallas shot 55% their last game, so generally speaking, Chicago would be an automatic play for me getting points in this spot, but the Bulls' inconsistent play thus far gives me pause for thought...No opinion on the total, but DAL has gone Over 4 of 6 this season while the Bulls have gone Over 2 of 3 Road games this year...Bulls shockingly 10th worst in FG% allowed while Dallas is dead last in the league in this category...

San Antonio at Houston: Big line-move on this game as soon as it was released as "sharp" money pounded the line from Spurs -1.5 to HOU -1...The Rockets are 5-2 and have won 4 straight...They just buried the heat by 22 at Miami and they buried Dallas in Week 1 at Home by 31...SA has won 6 straight heads up in this series...Houston did let-down after the Dallas burial, but they played the next day on the Road and the Hornets had rest as they beat the Rockets on 11/5...The Rockets will be at Home this time with a day's rest and the motivation has to be with Houston here to make yet another statement tonight to end this h2h winning streak the Spurs have here...7 of the last 9 have gone Under h2h, and even though this 177 on the surface seems ridiculous low, please keep in mind that the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams ALL went Under 177 and 11 of the last 12 meetings have ALL gone Under 177, with just 2 games breaking the 170 barrier...

LA Clippers at Utah: Two teams off to fast starts this season, one a surprise and the other not a surprise...The Home team has won 10 of the last 11 in this h2h series...And the Clips are 5th and Utah 6th in FG% allowed this season...So at first blush, Utah will win and this game will stay Under...Wish life was always that simple, but the Clips have won 5 staright and covered 4 straight (all 5 of those games were at Home)...They have lost their only Road game at PHOE...Clips also went Under 4 of those 5 games with PHOE being the only Over...I do have to like the Under here...

Toronto at Golden State: The total jumps out at me here...Toronto has gone Over 4 straight and only shot higher than 42% from the floor in one of those 4 games...GS put up 121 and 111 points in their first 2 games of this homestand against teams that aren't exactly offensive juggernauts (NO is 22nd and Detroit is 26th in points per game) and the 237 total against NO on 11/9 came against a NO team that is 3rd in the league in FG% allowed...The Raptors are 29th in FG% allowed...Toronto Coach Sam Mitchell has changed his starting lineup, demoting Mo Peterson (who didn't talk to reporters after practice on Monday) in place of Fred Jones and Mitchell said he did this to help jump-start the offense in the first quarter (as if they're not putting up enough shots per game already) because Jones has arguably been the team's best scorer since the preseason...So Mitchell wants MORE offense in the 1Q...TOR started 0-8 ATS last season to begin the year and are on their way to almost matching that again as they are 1-5 ATS right now...GS has won and covered 4 of 5 in this head-to-head series and the Warriors looked very impressive after Nellie shuffled Dunleavy out of the starting lineup and moved Andris Biedrins into the starting lineup, moving Murphy to forward...Although it will be tough for me to take GS after shooting 56% and blowing out Detroit last time out is it sets up a let-down spot...

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brewers7
11-14-2006, 10:26 PM
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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 21-10, +$1229

Sides: 9-3, +$597, Totals: 7-5, +$286, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-0, +$300, ML: 0-1, -$50, Quarters: 1-0, +$100

System Plays: 0-0

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Additional play (posted Tor/GS Over 211 earlier):

Tuesday, November 14

Charlotte Bobcats +7 -- $104 to win $100

David West is Out for New Orleans, and the Hornets haven't won since starting the season 4-0...And NO has covered all 4 meetings vs the Bobcats, winning the last 3...These are 2 of the top 3 defensive teams in the league in terms of FG% allowed, so I certainly expect an Under here, but even more so, I would expect a close game...The Bobcats had 29 turnovers their last outing, and only about 70 teams have had more turnovers in a game the last 15 seasons, spanning over 18,000 games...After a high number of turnovers like that, a team generally makes a concerted effort to protect the ball their next game so I expect the Bobcats to be focused and be in this game right to the buzzer...Hornets haven't covered 4 straight and were a very streaky ATS team last year, too, so it is certainly possible if not probable that being a 7-point FAV will extend this NC (Not-Cover) streak...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Tuesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

1) Char, 2) Milw, 3) Min, 4) Dal, 5) Hou, 6) Tor, 7) Mia, 8) Utah

Totals:

1) Tor ov, 2) Hou un, 3) Utah un, 4) Char un, 5) Milw ov, 6) Mia ov, 7) Min un, 8) Dal un

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$150)
Last 3 days: 3-2 (+$136)
Last 7 days: 7-4 (+$731)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
================================================== ======================

brewers7
11-15-2006, 06:43 AM
2 really tough losses yesterday as CHAR was terrible in the 4Q to not cover by 1 basket and Toronto was even worse, going 6-for-23 in the 4Q and shooting less than 30% in the 2H for me to lose that total by 1 bucket, a game that looked easy at the half...

Onwards and hopefully upwards...Remember it is a 24-week regular season grind and it's impossible to win every day...

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Wednesday, November 15

Washington/New York over 212.5 -- $159 to win $150

At first glance, this looked like a $300 bet to me, but as I look at it more, there are enough factors that point toward the Under here to keep this at the amount I did bet...All 4 games between these 2 teams did go Under last year, but the last 2 were Wizards' blowouts where the scoring slowed down tremendously in the 2H...In those two games (at WASH) the Wiz were up by 22 in one game and 26 in the other at the half...The totals were 116 and 100 at the half in those games...The Knicks haven't been throttled yet this season as Isiah Thomas won't let this team quit, so I am not seeing anything resembling a blowout here...A key factor for me is WASH shooting just 35% in their last vs. NJ, an OT loss that stayed Under despite going to OT...In that game, Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison combined to shoot 9-for-39, which is less than 25%...The Knicks don't have the defense to stop those two, and the Wiz had 7 games last season where they shot 38% or less from the field and in their NEXT GAME, they went Over in 5 of those 7...Other than Denver, the Knicks really haven't played any offensive-minded teams, so there is plenty of potential here for a shootout...Not really sure which way this total will move, but it should go up another point or 2...

Good Luck...brewers7
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brewers7
11-15-2006, 07:58 PM
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Looks at Wednesday's games:

Portland at Cleveland: Portland has not fared well at CLE the last 3 seasons, losing by more than tonight's spread every time...CLE seems to be sleepwalking right now as they came out flat as a pancake against BOS at Home over the weekend and were flat again out of the box against the Knicks on Monday...Boston is up next on their schedule, so maybe CLE is just bored with part of the schedule...They got up for 3 Nationally televised games and beat WAS at Home, beat SA at SA and whipped CHI at Home, but haven't covered against ATL, CHAR & BOS and covered by 1/2 a point vs. the Knicks...PORT may be a chart-play to the Over here because after 5 straight Under, they have now swung the other way with 2 straight Overs, and 6 of the last 8 h2h have gone Over in this series...PORT players did not play a ton of minutes last night...

Denver at Orlando: The Magic may be a chart-play themselves as they are now on a C2 after a NC5...Also, the Home team hss won 7 straight in this h2h series...DEN has won and covered 3 straight, and all 3 have been on this Road trip and in fact, DEN is 4-0 ATS on the Road this year (while they are 0-2 ATS at Home)...DEN lost their only back-ender in bk-2-bk nights this year...ORL has won both games this year when they had rest and their opponents did not, but are 1-1 ATS...DEN has gone Over 5 straight and ORL has gone Over all 3 of their Home games...

Washington at New York: The 5th and 7th worst defensive teams in the league in terms of FG% allowed here...But, all 4 games between these 2 teams did go Under last year, but the last 2 were Wizards' blowouts where the scoring slowed down tremendously in the 2H...In those two games (at WASH) the Wiz were up by 22 in one game and 26 in the other at the half...The totals were 116 and 100 at the half in those games...The Knicks haven't been throttled yet this season as Isiah Thomas won't let this team quit, so I am not seeing anything resembling a blowout here...A key factor for me is WASH shooting just 35% in their last vs. NJ, an OT loss that stayed Under despite going to OT...In that game, Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison combined to shoot 9-for-39, which is less than 25%...The Knicks don't have the defense to stop those two, and the Wiz had 7 games last season where they shot 38% or less from the field and in their NEXT GAME, they went Over in 5 of those 7...Other than Denver, the Knicks really haven't played any offensive-minded teams, so there is plenty of potential here for a shootout...Knicks have done fairly well h2h in this series until the last 2 meetings and NY will be hungry for theur first Home win of the season, but for me, it's more or less a standard play to take a good team off a bad shooting game (WASH 35% last game) against a bad team off a good shooting night the last time out (NY 49% last game)...

Milwaukee at New Jersey: I still think NJ will struggle without richard Jefferson...NJ has won the last 3 meetings h2h...This is NJ's first game where they have rest and their opponent does not this season...Not sure how the Charlie Villanueva injury factors into the equation here for Milwaukee...MILW had gone Over 6 of 7 and last night was an Under on the closing line (which I use) but if you got the line earlier, it was another Over...These teams have gone Under 3 straight h2h...NJ is 2nd in the league in FG% allowed but MILW is 28th...Lean to the Under with the injuries...

Indiana at Boston: Tough game to cap as BOS has covered 4 straight h2h but they are banged up and not playing well at all, covering the spread just once this season...BOS has gone Under 5 of 7 in regulation this season, while the Pacers have gone Under 3 of 4 games that have not been back-end of bk-2-bk games this season...No opinion at all on this game...

New Orleans at Detroit: The Pistons lost by 32 last time out so I am inclined to automatically look at them in a bounce-back spot here at Home...DET is 0-2 ATS at Home and NO didn't cover their only back-end of a bk-2-bk...NO shot just 40% last night and have gone Under 6 of their 8 games on the season...DET has gone Under 5 of 7 and both teams have gone Under 3 straight, although in the h2h series, both games went Over last year...

Charlotte at San Antonio: The Spurs have all 4 carer meetings with 3 Covers and a push...CHAR was one of the best teams in the league last season on the back-end of bk-2-bks, going 14-6-1 ATS in this situational spot...These teams have had 3 sraight Unders h2h and the highest total in their h2h series is 189 (their first-ever meeting, the only Over...CHAR is 1st in FG% allowed while SA is 6th, so this Under would seem to be the only play here...As far as the side, I have to lean to CHAR since SA is in a big let-down spot off a huge win vs. Houston last night...

Memphis at Sacramento: SAC hasn't missed a beat playing without Brad Miller, which is a good thing because he will be out a month...The Kings are a completely different team at Home than on the Road...3-0 SU and ATS at Home...The Home team has also won 5 straight in this h2h series and 10 of 11...MEMP has gone under all 6 of their games this season in regulation...SAC has gone Under 4 of 6 this year...

Philadelphia at Seattle: This h2h series has turned into an Away Team special...Philly has covered 6 of the last 7 in SEA, winning 5 of those games SU, while SEA has won and covered 4 of 5 at Philly...SEA has covered 6 straight overall including every game on their 5-game Road trip...SEA has gone Over in their only 2 Home games while Phiily has gone Over 2 of their 3 Away games...

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brewers7
11-15-2006, 10:15 PM
================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 21-12, +$960

Sides: 9-4, +$493, Totals: 7-6, +$121, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-0, +$300, ML: 0-1, -$50, Quarters: 1-0, +$100

System Plays: 0-0

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Additional play

Wednesday, November 15

Philadelphia 76ers +4 -- $108 to win $100
Philadelphia 76ers Pk -- $50 to win $79

Iverson is a warrior, therefore he will play tonight...This head-to-head series has turned into an Away Team's special...Philly has covered 6 of the last 7 in SEA, winning 5 of those games SU, while SEA has won and covered 4 of 5 at Philly...SEA has covered 6 straight overall including every game on their 5-game Road trip that spanned 7 days, they have a 3-game winning streak and now they only get one day's rest for this Home game after that 5-of-7...This wreaks of a let-down spot for the Sonics...Philly has had 4 days rest to lick their wounds from their current 3-game losing streak...Bounce-back spot for them...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Wednesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

1) Phi, 2) Memp, 3) Char, 4) Milw, 5) Bos, 6) Was, 7) Port, 8) NO, 9) Orl

Totals:

1) Was ov, 2) Char un, 3) Phi ov, 4) Orl ov, 5) Bos ov, 6) NO un, 7) Port ov, 8) Memp un, 9) Milw un

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 0-2 (-$269)
Last 3 days: 2-2 (-$19)
Last 7 days: 6-5 (+$462)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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brewers7
11-15-2006, 10:58 PM
I apologize for lateness, but I have to add:

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Additional play

Wednesday, November 15

Washington/New York, 1Q, over 51.5, $110 to win $100

Wizards Over in every 1Q until their last game...Knicks Under in every 1Q except for the Denver game, but the Nuggets play a fast pace, like the Wiz...I think the points go up early here...

Good Luck...brewers7
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GodOfGamblers
11-16-2006, 02:37 AM
I apologize for lateness, but I have to add:

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Additional play

Wednesday, November 15

Washington/New York, 1Q, over 51.5, $110 to win $100

Wizards Over in every 1Q until their last game...Knicks Under in every 1Q except for the Denver game, but the Nuggets play a fast pace, like the Wiz...I think the points go up early here...

Good Luck...brewers7
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It look like a good day for you brewers7. Big winning odd on Charlotte & New Orlean. Your prediction & analyse of the NBA is thump up :worship:

brewers7
11-16-2006, 06:11 AM
First off, I need to apologize for making my first bad bet of the year...I forced that Over a bit as I did see enough handicapping "evidence" ahead of time that normally would make that game a "no-play" for me...But I pushed it when I should have left it go by the wayside, and I apologize, because I have been doing this long enough now to know better than to make stupid decisions like that...I owe anybody who tails me better quality handicapping than that donkey play I bet and actually made a play for the viewing public...My bad...I will do my best not to make a stupid decision like that one again...Close losses always happen and I have had plenty of those and accept those tough losses, but flat-out bad bets are inexcusable and I offer no excuses for that bad play...I am better than that and smarter than that...

Ok. time to move onward and hopefully upwards...

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 24-13, +$1080

Sides: 10-4, +$593, Totals: 7-7, -$38, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-0, +$300, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 2-0, +$200

System Plays: 0-0

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Thursday, November 16

Golden State Warriors -4 -- $165 to win $150

This opening line confuses and confounds me, so I must bet it now because I strongly suspect that this line will move towards 6 as the day moves on...I would have released it at 6 or 6.5, but I am not a linesmaker or a bookie...I guess Troy Murphy is worth a point or 2 by being questionable, but he isn't the key to this team as far as I am concerned, Baron Davis is...Which leads me to my first point...GS is 3-0 SU & ATS vs. SAC when Baron Davis is in the lineup and 1-2 SU and 1-1-1 ATS when Davis is out...GS is already 7-4 their last 11 SU against SAC and 9-2-1 ATS against them their last 12...SAC was a good team last season in the back-end of bk-2-bk games, but started 0-3 ATS in this situational spot on the Road in 2005-06...SAC is 0-1 ATS already this season, meanwhile GS is 1-1 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season...GS was 6-4 ATS in this situational spot last year at Home, but I expect that to improve this season under Nellie...Their loss was against the Lakers, who were just dialed in those first 2 games of the season and GS was flat in their opener...GS has won 4 of 5 and covered 5 straight and Nellie has them playing well...It doesn't matter if Murphy plays or not...Artest had a sore back last night and it was sore enough in fact that he did not start against Memphis, but came off the bench and played 39 minutes...Will his back be 100% tonight?...Mike Bibby also played 42 minutes last night...This looks too easy, which is always scary to me, but I like GS to win this game, and 4 should not be an issue...Again, Murphy is questionable, but hey, what if he plays and Artest's back puts him on the shelf tonight?...Then I just beat the line-move...And if Murphy doesn't play and Artest is fine, I am still A-OK with laying 4 any day of the week in this situational spot against the Kings...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Thursday's Picks for tracking purposes:

pending...

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 3-1 (+$120)
Last 3 days: 4-3 (+$1)
Last 7 days: 8-6 (+$82)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
================================================== ======================

Mr Flamboyant
11-16-2006, 06:21 AM
Brewers .. what's your take on the total in this one .. 196.5 seems far too low for Golden State and Sacramento .. ?

brewers7
11-16-2006, 06:29 AM
Brewers .. what's your take on the total in this one .. 196.5 seems far too low for Golden State and Sacramento .. ?


They have gone Under at least 8 of the last 10 head-to-head, so I won't touch the total here...

GodOfGamblers
11-16-2006, 11:52 AM
They have gone Under at least 8 of the last 10 head-to-head, so I won't touch the total here...

What's your thought on Bulls vs Rockets? I am thinking of Bulls to win by under 10.5 points or under 179.5 points?

Mr Flamboyant
11-16-2006, 01:02 PM
What's your thought on Bulls vs Rockets? I am thinking of Bulls to win by under 10.5 points or under 179.5 points?

Statistics and past matchups between these two teams suggest this game SHOULD go OVER 178.5 .. Add to that the fact that both teams are fresh for this game ..

brewers7
11-16-2006, 10:00 PM
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Thursday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) GS, 2) Chi

Totals:

1) Chi un, 2) GS ov

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Chicago at Houston: No strong opinions here except to say, when in doubt, I always take the points...Both teams coming off tough losses and are in bounce-back mode...The Bulls have been super-flaky to this point this season, which will happen when a team relies solely on outside shooting to win games on offense, so I am picking my spots carefully with this team...Both teams are defensive-minded, so the Under is the natural play, except this is a National TV game on TNT, where it just seems like games find ways to get Over the total...

Sacramento at Golden State: The h2h numbers here point to the Under as 8 of the last 10 h2h have gone Under and both teams have more Unders this season than Overs...But GS is a team that can go Over on any given night...SAC likes to slow the pace generally speaking, but a no-play for me again as NAtional TV games seem to go Over more often than not (not counting playoffs)...GS is 3-0 SU & ATS vs. SAC when Baron Davis is in the lineup and 1-2 SU and 1-1-1 ATS when Davis is out...GS is already 7-4 their last 11 SU against SAC and 9-2-1 ATS against them their last 12...SAC was a good team last season in the back-end of bk-2-bk games, but started 0-3 ATS in this situational spot on the Road in 2005-06...SAC is 0-1 ATS already this season, meanwhile GS is 1-1 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season...GS was 6-4 ATS in this situational spot last year at Home, but I expect that to improve this season under Nellie...Their loss was against the Lakers, who were just dialed in those first 2 games of the season and GS was flat in their opener...GS has won 4 of 5 and covered 5 straight and Nellie has them playing well...It doesn't matter if Murphy plays or not...Artest had a sore back last night and it was sore enough in fact that he did not start against Memphis, but came off the bench and played 39 minutes...Will his back be 100% tonight?...Mike Bibby also played 42 minutes last night...

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Mr Flamboyant
11-17-2006, 10:13 AM
Statistics and past matchups between these two teams suggest this game SHOULD go OVER 178.5 .. Add to that the fact that both teams are fresh for this game ..

F#ckin oath .. !

brewers7
11-17-2006, 10:32 AM
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Early looks at Friday's games, although not a lot of significant trends jumping out here as I don't like this board much...Should be a lot of trends kicking in for Saturday's big board:

New Jersey at Indiana: Have no choice but to look at Indy here as they shot 38% from the field last game while getting buried at Boston and NJ shot 55% while beating Milwaukee...Indy also was eliminated by the Nets in the playoffs last year and this is the first meeting since then...Indy had covered 4 straight h2h vs. NJ in the regular season...Nothing significant standing out on the total except both teams are playing more Unders than Overs in games that are NOT back-ends of bk-2-bk nights...

New York at Miami: No line listed due to SHAQ being questionable...This had been an Under series in the past, but some Overs are sneaking in, including 2 out of 3 Overs last season...Miami has won and covered 4 straight h2h...Knicks won't go Under forever, so this could be the game where there 3-game undeer steak ends as Miami may decide to run with them...

Portland at Boston: I don't see any valid reason why PORT is getting 7.5 points here...The Celtics have covered 3 straight in this h2h series...I suppose since the Blazers have lost 4 straight on the Road, not covering any of them is the reason, but PORT was within 4 points of covering in ALL 4 of those games...They are a great teaser team right now as they are just missing getting under these numbers...Possible let-down spot here for the Celts here after the dominating win over Indy last time out...PORT is a chart-play to the Over because after 5 straight Unders, they have gone Over 3 straight...

Minnesota at Cleveland: The Cavs have quietly put together the best record in the East at this early stage of the season...Minny is 9th and Cleve is 11th in FG% allowed...Minny has covered 6 of the last 8 in this h2h series...No strong opinion here, but when in doubt, I take the points...These teams have been playing Unders this season as CLE is Under 6 of their 8 games in regulation...Minny has 2 straight Overs after being Under 4 of 5...

Washington at Detroit: What is wrong with the Pistons?...DET is 19th in FG% allowed...The Pistons had owned WASH until last season, when the Wiz swept them in the regular season, winning all 3 games (although the final one was a game where Detroit sat most of their starters on the last day of the season)...WASH has had back-to-back games where they have shot terrible, 35% vs. NJ and 31.5% vs. NY, so how long will this go on?...DET has also lost 2 straight, but shooting poorly hasn't been the issue...I would expect DET to rise up here, but wouldn't bet on it...If you don't count that final regular season game last season between these two where many DET starters didn't even play, this series has had 7 straight Overs and a push...

Dallas at Memphis: Dallas has won and covered 12 of their last 13 vs. Memphis, including last year's first-round sweep over the Grizzlies...However, this is the first of a Home-and-Home, so I could wait until this game tonight is in the books and go the other way tomorrow...Dallas is still a bit of a chart-play after a NC4 (all losses), they have covered 3 straight (all wins)...I don't see Dallas slowing down and see them covering tonight and then not covering tomorrow at Home when they are favored by 9 or 10...For tonight, Dallas has 3 straight Overs and MEMP, after 6 straight Unders in regulation, had their first Over (in a big way) at SAC, so this may be a strong chart-play to the Over for them...

Chicago at San Antonio: The Bulls have covered 5 straight games at SA and won there last season...However, I kind of pity CHI here facing SA off a big upset loss to Charlotte last time out at Home...Ben Wallace did hurt his bicep last night and I am not 100% certain he'll play after reading the Chicago newspapers online...For me, this is a Spurs or no-play situation...Major bounce-back spot here...CHI has gone Over 4 of 5, and the Spurs have gone Under 4 straight in regulation...No opinion on that total although these 2 teams have gone Over 3 straight h2h...

Utah at Seattle: Seattle has won 3 straight in this h2h series...Utah is off to an awesome start, sporting the league's best record...So is this trap-city here?...Seems to be, but this is the second game with AK47 out for Utah...Does this matter?...Not according to 82games.com:

http://www.82games.com/0607/0607UTA.HTM

These numbers can be deceiving sometimes, but whenever a team has an injured players this website is good to find out whether a tam really misses that player or not...Just click on all of the teams and check it out...Big surprise how important Wade is to Miami, huh?...Anyway, this game has trap written all over it...Is Utah peeking ahead to PHOE tomorrow night at Home?...Utah 3 straight Overs...No opinion on this total right now...

Philadelphia at Phoenix: The Suns have won and covered 4 straight in this h2h series fairly easily...The Suns have 5 days rest to prepare for this one...After a 2-5 start, I would imagine PHOE will be dying to get back on the court and take out their frustrations on someone...Sixers off a nice win, but they used defense to notch that "W"...Both of Philly's last 2 trips to PHOE stayed Under because the Suns were killing them, a 20-point win and a 29-point win...Pointspread seems a bit low, so I am going to want to watch the line-move here...My gut says PHOE blows them out, which may keep it Under, although it's hard for me to EVER bet a PHOE game under...

Toronto at LA Lakers: Toronto seems to be a slow-starting team under Coach Sam Mitchell as the Raptors were 0-8 ATS last season and are 1-6 this season ATS, thus far, with a current NC5 going...Lake-show with 4 days rest to prepare for this one, but the Lakers have a tendency to play to the level of their competition...Kobe went off on this Raptors' team for 81 points last year at Staples...LAL has covered 4 straight at Staples vs. TOR...Again, for me, when in doubt, take the points, but man the Raptors aren't playing wel right now...I think this total can fly Over 207 as TOR shot 40% their last outing vs. GS and still fell a bucket or 2 away from going Over...Lakers 4 straight Unders after 4 Overs to start the season and the Raptors had an Under last time out after 4 straight Overs...
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SwiSha
11-17-2006, 11:13 AM
keep up the good work brewers always very helpful reading your posts

GodOfGamblers
11-17-2006, 11:48 AM
Although nothing is guarantee but I find your analyse is very good. When it come to the NBA, i will live and die with your prediction mate. Just keep on posting ;)

brewers7
11-17-2006, 09:13 PM
Thanx guys...

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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 25-13, +$1230

Sides: 11-4, +$743, Totals: 7-7, -$38, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-0, +$300, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 2-0, +$200

System Plays: 0-0

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Friday, November 17

Dallas/Memphis over 186 -- $165 to win $150

Like I said in my overview of today's games, this is a strong chart-play for me because Dallas has hit their offensive stride with 3 straight Overs and MEMP just had their first Over in regulation time, but it wasn't just an Over, it was a game that went Over by almost 50 points...Why did that happen?...Maybe this excerpt from the Memphis newspaper, the Commercial Appeal will give us some insight:


INSIDE THE GRIZZLIES
For the first time this season, the Griz can be encouraged by how well they played offensively. Committing to essentially a four-guard lineup created better ball movement, a faster pace and easier shots in their past two games. Said coach Mike Fratello: "What we've seen is that our most productive minutes have been when we go with speed and quickness. (The Sacramento game) was a step forward in the right direction." Eddie Jones is suffering from a sore Achilles so his status remains up in the air. It'll be a daily call as to whether he'll play. After sitting out Wednesday's loss at Sacramento, Jones will have had four days rest and could be available. The Griz spent Thursday traveling so there was no word yet concerning rookie Rudy Gay's availability. Gay, who started Wednesday in place of Jones, suffered a mild sprained ankle against the Kings.


This would seem to tell me that the Griz are going to play small-ball and use their quickness to run up and down the floor...I also read another article in that paper where it seemed as though management was pressuring Coach Fratello to speed up the pace and go with the younger, quicker players...For me, it is generally a red-flag when a team suddenly goes Over a total by 50 points in regulation time after being a stone Under team all season...This is a strong chart-play for me, so there is no other way to go but Over...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Friday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Port, 2) Phoe, 3) Sea, 4) SA, 5) Was, 6) NY, 7) Tor, 8) Dal, 9) Ind, 10) Min

Totals:

1) Dal ov, 2) Tor ov, 3) Was ov, 4) Port ov, 5) NY ov, 6) SA un, 7) Ind ov, 8) Sea ov, 9) Min ov, 10) Phoe un

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$150)
Last 3 days: 4-3 (+$1)
Last 7 days: 8-6 (+$132)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
================================================== ======================

brewers7
11-18-2006, 01:52 AM
If I see a 2H play tonight, I'll play it, but had to grab this before it goes up any more...

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Saturday, November 18

Toronto/Denver over 216 -- $164 to win $150

It opened at 213, but I was handicapping the NHL and figured it wouldn't move too much in an hour...Yeah, right...Up to 215 in no time flat and I actually bought up a point to get 216 at lower juice...Toronto hasn't hit 216 yet and have a game pending yet tonight against the Lakers, but the Raptors are shooting around 40% in a lot of these games and still reaching totals of 209, 210 & 213...I had this game circled 3 days ago...No way the total should be less than 220...Denver is about as wide-open as it gets, save Phoenix, and Toronto is run-and-gun, with a very fast pace to their games and a lot of shots going up...Previous trends are out the window here, in my estimation, as I simply see these teams running-and-gunning all game long and unless Denver gets up by 30 or we have bricks going up all night, this should hit 220...

Good Luck...brewers7
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SwiSha
11-18-2006, 04:16 AM
great work :yeah:

brewers7
11-18-2006, 04:25 AM
great work :yeah:

Thanx...
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This is my 2nd play for Saturday...Big board, lots of trends in play, there may be more...

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Saturday, November 18

Memphis/Dallas over 189 -- $110 to win $100

People are pounding the daylights out of this Over at Pinnacle as it is 188 with -135 juice there, so ran over to 5dimes and took the 189 at normal juice...This is the second-half of a Home-and-Home series and yes, I know all about these teams playing games in the 170s and 180s the past several seasons, but Memphis has apparantly changed their offensive philosophy and are playing small-ball and using their speed and quickness to produce some more offense...I generally don't like taking an Over on the back-end of a Home-and-Home after an extreme Over in the first game, but I don't think Vegas is moving the line enough to catch up with the new Memphis offensive style...But you need to bet it now before all value is lost, but heck, the way Memphis is playing now, 200 may not be a problem...This is obviously still a strong chart-play for me for the Over, and if you need more details on the new Memphis offensive style, then see my post for Friday's Over with these same two teams...

Good Luck...brewers7
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brewers7
11-18-2006, 08:47 AM
Made 2 bets already for SAT...

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Early looks at Saturday's games (remember these are looks and info I am passing along and is by no means a "play" on anything yet):

Cleveland at Washington: Cleveland will undoubtedly be the square play of the day (61% of the early bets already on CLE), because how could the team with the best record in the league be getting points against Washington, who has been playing terrible...Larry Hughes will be missing his second game with a sprained ankle...His teammates rose up to win and cover last night...WASH will be the team with the motivation here as they were eliminated by the Cavs in the playoffs last year and beaten on National television the 2nd night of this season at CLE...It is the Wiz or no-play for me...WAS has 3 straight Unders after 4 straight Overs...This Vegas total looks high to me for this series...

Charlotte at Orlando: These teams hav gone Over 6 of 8 in this h2h series, but that Vegas total just looks too high to me...CHAR has only gone Over twice in 8 games this season in regulation and one was against Denver, so does that even count?...CHAR is 1st in FG% allowed and ORL is 3rd...If you don't count back-end of bk-2-bk games, ORL hasn't gone Over since the first 2 games of the season...And 8.5 also looks like too many points despite CHAR off a huge upset win at SA...This h2h series is tied at 4-4...

Miami at Atlanta: Not sure why we are waiting for a line here when we know Shaq is out for 4 to 6 weeks...Miami will be a Dog here, a rare spot for them as they have dominated this h2h series recently...The Heat have won 13 of the last 15 straight up, covering 11...Atlanta did win the last meeting, but this was a meaningless game on the second-to-last day of the season last year and Miami sat Wade, SHAQ, Mourning & Peyton in that contest...So can we even count that one?...13 wins in the last 14 h2h for Miami before that meaningless game...But how flat are the Champs right now?...Miami was 6-10 ATS last season on the back-end of bk-2-bks...This has been an Over series recently h2h with 8 of the last 10 going Over...

Portland at New Jersey: The Blazers are finally falling back to reality on this disastrous Road trip...This will be their 4th game in 5 nights, and for people in the know, when we have a game like thisthe general rule of thumb is to take the Away Team every time...This situational spot is 5-2 ATS for the Away Team thus far this season...PORT had one 4-of-5 game last year on the Road at MILW and covered that spot...NJ heads West after this game...I cannot go against the trend here, but won't bet PORT because I suddenly do not trust them after they have lost and not covered 4 straight...This series has gone Under 5 straight and 8 of 10, but PORT is still a chart-play for me because after 5 straight Unders, they now have 4 straight Overs and NJ had their 232 total on their only back-ender this season...

Houston at Detroit: This h2h series had gone Under 5 straight until an Over on 1/22/06 last season at Detroit...Houston playing a surprising number of Overs to this point of the season...Pistons not getting any respect here as they are a Pick in their own building...But it is understandable as HOU looks solid and the Pistons no longer have that dominating presence, so even though DET has covered 8 of the last 10 in this series, the Rockets covered here last season losing by 2 as 11.5 Dogs...I have no opinion either way...

Boston at New York: Coach Isiah Thomas said in the preseason that until the Knicks are mathematically eliminated, their goal is to win the championship this year...That may be optimism on creatine, but the Knicks have won 2 straight and are 4-6 with a win-able game at MSG tonight...However, Boston has won 7-of-9 in this h2h series...3 of the last 4 and 5 of 7 have gone Under h2h...NY suddenly has 4 straight Unders after 4 straight Overs, but I don't foresee NY ever having an extended Under streak thiss eason...BOS has 2 straight Overs and this game just smells like an Over to me...Both teams shot over 50% last night, so can they keep that up tonight?...

New Orleans at Minnesota: No line yet and I am not sure why here...Looked around for an injury (maybe Blount is questionable after Friday night's game?)...The hornets have covered 7 of 8 h2h in this series...They are 1-0 ATS so far when they have rest and their opponent does not, but that was a Home game (vs. HOU)...Minny is 1-1 on the back-end of bk-2-bks, covering the 4-of-5 spot and both were on the Road while this one is at Home...6 of the last 8 have gone Over in this h2h series...NO 8th and Minny 9th in FG% allowed thus far, though, and Minny Under in BOTH of their back-enders this season, so the Under is a natural look...

Indiana at Milwaukee: The Home Team has won 8 of the last 10 and the Under has gone 7 of 10 in this h2h series...This Vegas total looks low at first blush to me, but this is a chart-play for the MILW Under as they have 2 straight Unders after 5 straight Overs...Indy is 1-2 SU and ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks on the Road so far this season...

Memphis at Dallas: Dallas has won and covered 13 of their last 14 vs. Memphis, including last year's first-round sweep over the Grizzlies...However, this is the back-end of a Home-and-Home, so since Dallas covered the front-end at Memphis, my kneejerk handicapping reaction to the back-end is to take Memphis and the points as they don't even need to win to cover the spread here...However, Dallas is certainly the chart-play, now on a C4 after a NC4 to the start the season and it's 4 wins after 4 losses, too...For tonight, Dallas has 4 straight Overs and MEMP, after 6 straight Unders in regulation, has 2 straight BIG-TIME Overs, so this is a strong chart-play to the Over for them...And I id point out already the new offensive scheme now implemented by the Grizz...

Toronto at Denver: I marked this game on my calendar 3 days ago...Over-Over-Over...Denver has installed a new Phoenix-like offense for this season, and although they don't have the right personnel in place to run this system, the Nuggets have still gone Over 5 of 7 games this season (pushing their last total at ORL)...These teams basically run and gun and look to get as many shots off in as short an amount of time as possible...DEN is 25th and TOR is 27th in FG% allowed, so defense will be an after-thought here and unless Denver kills this team by 25 or 30, this game should hit 225 or 230 or above unless they are clanking bricks all night...Toronto might be a charrt-play here on the Side as they covered last night (barely) after Not covering 5 straight...

Phoenix at Utah: No line as Steve Nash is questionable with back spasms...Everything hinges on Nash playing here...PHOE is an Under team without him, and I don't know if they Cover here 2 nights in a row without him...This is a quick-revenge spot for PHOE who lost to Utah at Home on 11/3...Utah is already 2-0 SU & ATS this season when they AND their opponent are on the back-end of bk-2-bks, while PHOE is 0-1 SU & ATS in the same spot...Coach Dunleavy of the Clippers said the Jazz are the best team in the Western Conference after the Clips got throttled by Utah on 11/14...But I would have to take PHOE whether Nash plays or not and the total should go Over if Nash plays and Under if he doesn't...Utah is Over 4 straight...

Philadelphia at LA Clippers: The Clips got mangled by the Jazz at Utah and have had 3 days rest to lick their wounds from that 22-point loss...We have a chart-play against the Clips because they didn't cover last time out after 4 straight Covers...Clips are 0-2 on the Road, but 5-0 at Home (4-1 ATS)...Philly has covered 4 of the last 5 times at LAC...Clips Under 4 of their 5 Home games with PHOE being the obly Over, so I lean to the Under here...

Seattle at Golden State: At first blush, how does this game NOT go Over?...GS shot 57.7% two nights ago and SEA shot 53.6% last night, so my kneejerk handicapping reaction would be to think Under here with these teams coming off solid shooting nights...GS is 12th in FG% allowed (a bit surprising), while SEA is 28th (no surprise)...GS has gone Under 4 straight games at Home vs. SEA, with 202 being the highest scoring game...GS has covered 6 straight in this h2h series...GS has also covered 6 straight overall THIS season coming into this contest...GS 2-1 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season...Seattle is 2-0 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks so far this season...
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brewers7
11-18-2006, 10:51 PM
Ok, cannot help myself here...I have to add another $150 bet on this total...I was seriously considering this as a maximum play bet ($1000), but it is too early in the season to be betting that big on a total...I just don't see any way this game doesn't hit 220, but maybe I am wrong here...

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(Additional bet on this total):

Saturday, November 18

Toronto/Denver over 215 -- $150 to win $153

Total coming down slightly...That is fine with me...Toronto hasn't hit 215 yet and just missed going Over again last night, which is perfect for me, because tonight should be the explosion game against a Denver team who doesn't play defense...TOR won't be shooting 40% from the floor forever, and I expect close to 180 shots going up tonight...Raptors still reaching totals of 207, 209, 210 & 213...I had this game circled 3 days ago...Denver is about as wide-open as it gets, save Phoenix, and Toronto is run-and-gun, with a very fast pace to their games and a lot of shots going up...Previous trends are out the window here, in my estimation, as I simply see these teams running-and-gunning all game long and unless Denver gets up by 30 or we have bricks going up all night, this should hit 220...

Good Luck...brewers7

================================================== ======================

Saturday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Was, 2) Tor, 3) Char, 4) Phoe, 5) Port, 6) Mia, 7) Memp, 8) NO, 9) Bos, 10) GS, 11) Phi, 12) Ind, 13) Det

Totals:

1) Tor ov, 2) Memp ov, 3) Char un, 4) Bos ov, 5) Phi un, 6) Port ov, 7) Mia un, 8) NO un, 9) GS ov, 10) Det un, 11) Was un, 12) Ind un, 13) Phoe un

Note on the PHOE total: if Nash doesn't play, the Under is a MUCH stronger play...

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sports freak
11-18-2006, 10:54 PM
Made 2 bets already for SAT...

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Early looks at Saturday's games (remember these are looks and info I am passing along and is by no means a "play" on anything yet):

Cleveland at Washington: Cleveland will undoubtedly be the square play of the day (61% of the early bets already on CLE), because how could the team with the best record in the league be getting points against Washington, who has been playing terrible...Larry Hughes will be missing his second game with a sprained ankle...His teammates rose up to win and cover last night...WASH will be the team with the motivation here as they were eliminated by the Cavs in the playoffs last year and beaten on National television the 2nd night of this season at CLE...It is the Wiz or no-play for me...WAS has 3 straight Unders after 4 straight Overs...This Vegas total looks high to me for this series...

Charlotte at Orlando: These teams hav gone Over 6 of 8 in this h2h series, but that Vegas total just looks too high to me...CHAR has only gone Over twice in 8 games this season in regulation and one was against Denver, so does that even count?...CHAR is 1st in FG% allowed and ORL is 3rd...If you don't count back-end of bk-2-bk games, ORL hasn't gone Over since the first 2 games of the season...And 8.5 also looks like too many points despite CHAR off a huge upset win at SA...This h2h series is tied at 4-4...

Miami at Atlanta: Not sure why we are waiting for a line here when we know Shaq is out for 4 to 6 weeks...Miami will be a Dog here, a rare spot for them as they have dominated this h2h series recently...The Heat have won 13 of the last 15 straight up, covering 11...Atlanta did win the last meeting, but this was a meaningless game on the second-to-last day of the season last year and Miami sat Wade, SHAQ, Mourning & Peyton in that contest...So can we even count that one?...13 wins in the last 14 h2h for Miami before that meaningless game...But how flat are the Champs right now?...Miami was 6-10 ATS last season on the back-end of bk-2-bks...This has been an Over series recently h2h with 8 of the last 10 going Over...

Portland at New Jersey: The Blazers are finally falling back to reality on this disastrous Road trip...This will be their 4th game in 5 nights, and for people in the know, when we have a game like thisthe general rule of thumb is to take the Away Team every time...This situational spot is 5-2 ATS for the Away Team thus far this season...PORT had one 4-of-5 game last year on the Road at MILW and covered that spot...NJ heads West after this game...I cannot go against the trend here, but won't bet PORT because I suddenly do not trust them after they have lost and not covered 4 straight...This series has gone Under 5 straight and 8 of 10, but PORT is still a chart-play for me because after 5 straight Unders, they now have 4 straight Overs and NJ had their 232 total on their only back-ender this season...

Houston at Detroit: This h2h series had gone Under 5 straight until an Over on 1/22/06 last season at Detroit...Houston playing a surprising number of Overs to this point of the season...Pistons not getting any respect here as they are a Pick in their own building...But it is understandable as HOU looks solid and the Pistons no longer have that dominating presence, so even though DET has covered 8 of the last 10 in this series, the Rockets covered here last season losing by 2 as 11.5 Dogs...I have no opinion either way...

Boston at New York: Coach Isiah Thomas said in the preseason that until the Knicks are mathematically eliminated, their goal is to win the championship this year...That may be optimism on creatine, but the Knicks have won 2 straight and are 4-6 with a win-able game at MSG tonight...However, Boston has won 7-of-9 in this h2h series...3 of the last 4 and 5 of 7 have gone Under h2h...NY suddenly has 4 straight Unders after 4 straight Overs, but I don't foresee NY ever having an extended Under streak thiss eason...BOS has 2 straight Overs and this game just smells like an Over to me...Both teams shot over 50% last night, so can they keep that up tonight?...

New Orleans at Minnesota: No line yet and I am not sure why here...Looked around for an injury (maybe Blount is questionable after Friday night's game?)...The hornets have covered 7 of 8 h2h in this series...They are 1-0 ATS so far when they have rest and their opponent does not, but that was a Home game (vs. HOU)...Minny is 1-1 on the back-end of bk-2-bks, covering the 4-of-5 spot and both were on the Road while this one is at Home...6 of the last 8 have gone Over in this h2h series...NO 8th and Minny 9th in FG% allowed thus far, though, and Minny Under in BOTH of their back-enders this season, so the Under is a natural look...

Indiana at Milwaukee: The Home Team has won 8 of the last 10 and the Under has gone 7 of 10 in this h2h series...This Vegas total looks low at first blush to me, but this is a chart-play for the MILW Under as they have 2 straight Unders after 5 straight Overs...Indy is 1-2 SU and ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks on the Road so far this season...

Memphis at Dallas: Dallas has won and covered 13 of their last 14 vs. Memphis, including last year's first-round sweep over the Grizzlies...However, this is the back-end of a Home-and-Home, so since Dallas covered the front-end at Memphis, my kneejerk handicapping reaction to the back-end is to take Memphis and the points as they don't even need to win to cover the spread here...However, Dallas is certainly the chart-play, now on a C4 after a NC4 to the start the season and it's 4 wins after 4 losses, too...For tonight, Dallas has 4 straight Overs and MEMP, after 6 straight Unders in regulation, has 2 straight BIG-TIME Overs, so this is a strong chart-play to the Over for them...And I id point out already the new offensive scheme now implemented by the Grizz...

Toronto at Denver: I marked this game on my calendar 3 days ago...Over-Over-Over...Denver has installed a new Phoenix-like offense for this season, and although they don't have the right personnel in place to run this system, the Nuggets have still gone Over 5 of 7 games this season (pushing their last total at ORL)...These teams basically run and gun and look to get as many shots off in as short an amount of time as possible...DEN is 25th and TOR is 27th in FG% allowed, so defense will be an after-thought here and unless Denver kills this team by 25 or 30, this game should hit 225 or 230 or above unless they are clanking bricks all night...Toronto might be a charrt-play here on the Side as they covered last night (barely) after Not covering 5 straight...

Phoenix at Utah: No line as Steve Nash is questionable with back spasms...Everything hinges on Nash playing here...PHOE is an Under team without him, and I don't know if they Cover here 2 nights in a row without him...This is a quick-revenge spot for PHOE who lost to Utah at Home on 11/3...Utah is already 2-0 SU & ATS this season when they AND their opponent are on the back-end of bk-2-bks, while PHOE is 0-1 SU & ATS in the same spot...Coach Dunleavy of the Clippers said the Jazz are the best team in the Western Conference after the Clips got throttled by Utah on 11/14...But I would have to take PHOE whether Nash plays or not and the total should go Over if Nash plays and Under if he doesn't...Utah is Over 4 straight...

Philadelphia at LA Clippers: The Clips got mangled by the Jazz at Utah and have had 3 days rest to lick their wounds from that 22-point loss...We have a chart-play against the Clips because they didn't cover last time out after 4 straight Covers...Clips are 0-2 on the Road, but 5-0 at Home (4-1 ATS)...Philly has covered 4 of the last 5 times at LAC...Clips Under 4 of their 5 Home games with PHOE being the obly Over, so I lean to the Under here...

Seattle at Golden State: At first blush, how does this game NOT go Over?...GS shot 57.7% two nights ago and SEA shot 53.6% last night, so my kneejerk handicapping reaction would be to think Under here with these teams coming off solid shooting nights...GS is 12th in FG% allowed (a bit surprising), while SEA is 28th (no surprise)...GS has gone Under 4 straight games at Home vs. SEA, with 202 being the highest scoring game...GS has covered 6 straight in this h2h series...GS has also covered 6 straight overall THIS season coming into this contest...GS 2-1 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season...Seattle is 2-0 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks so far this season...
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Good luck mate,keep up the great work!!Love seeing these writeups,very useful n much appreciated my friend!!all the best 2day :)

brewers7
11-19-2006, 12:46 AM
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2nd half bet:

Saturday, November 18

New Jersey Nets, 2H, -9.5 -- $107 to win $100

NJ shooting about 25% and PORT shooting over 50% and NJ down 17 and can still cover this 2H spread even if they lose by 7 for the game...NJ ccannot play any worse here...Any kind of effort at all will get this under a 7-point deficit for the game...FG percentages should even out here...

Good Luck...brewers7

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brewers7
11-19-2006, 06:35 PM
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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 27-15, +$1466

Sides: 11-4, +$743, Totals: 9-8, +$305, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 2-0, +$200

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Sunday, November 19

San Antonio Spurs -2.5 -- $105 to win $100

Feels like a square play here, but I feel the injury of Brad Miller is going to catch up with this Kings' team...Sure, they are unbeaten at Home, but the Spurs are unbeaten on the Road...Sure, the Spurs eliminated the Kings from the playoffs last season so the Kings should be up for this one, looking for some revenge...SA won by 3 in their only regular season trip to ARCO last season, and I will take a shot with a minimum play on the better team...I will pass on the Under here although SA has played 5 straight Unders in regulation and although SAC has 3 straight Overs, they were against TOR, GS and a MEMP team trying out a new offense...This total is a bit high for these 2 teams...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Sunday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) SA, 2) Chi

Totals:

1) SA un, 2) Chi un

Chicago at LA Lakers: Ben Gordon is probable...The Bulls have lost 3 straight and I just don't see them losing 4 in a row here...The Bulls won here last year...These two teams have gone Under 5 straight h2h...The Lakers have 5 straight Unders after starting the year with 4 straight Overs...Lean to the Under here...

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-2 (+$86)
Last 3 days: 3-2 (+$386)
Last 7 days: 8-4 (+$487)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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