NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)... [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)...

brewers7
11-06-2006, 10:06 PM
Note:

I forgot to post at this forum last week and that is my bad because I meant to and basically forgot...Since I ended Week 1 about Even anyway, I'll just carry over my record so I don't have to keep separate records here...You can probably google my username and check out my picks last week if you need to...Seems like a good forum here, so I'll make it my 5th forum to post at...

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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ################################################## ##############
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
################################################## ##############
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 11-6, -$2

Sides: 5-2, +$52, Totals: 4-3, -$204, 2H Totals: 2-0, +$200, ML: 0-1, -$50

System Plays: 0-0

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2 mistakes I made in Week 1 was not flat-betting and not betting on Sunday (would have had another 3-0 day)...Still a break-even week and I hope to slowly build from here...

Last year my bigger bets hit a high % and my smaller bets were terrible...In Week 1, the opposite was true...Long way to go, though...

I may play more opening lines this year (haven't decided), but I didn't bet Sunday because all 3 lines moved against me big-time overnight, so I passed Sunday afternoon and regretted it...

Monday, November 6

San Antonio Spurs -6 -- $220 to win $200

The NBA schedulemakers gave the Spurs two 4-games-in-5-days situational spots last year (1 at Home and 1 on the Road), and ironically, the Road spot was at New York in early December...The Spurs covered that game, and the Spurs were a terrible team last season on the back-end of back-to-backs, not just for not covering, but for not even winning games...The Spurs are probably tired of hearing about it as I heard the announcers already mentioning the fact that they lost to Cleveland a few days back on a back-ender and how this is a budding "team issue" with Coach Popovich...Only Tony Parker played more than 30 minutes at Toronto yesterday (afternoon, by the way, so they made it to their NY hotel rooms at a normal hour Sunday night), and Parker played 32 minutes...I simply do not see fatigue being a factor here at all, and I would hope the Spurs can take care of this Knicks' team by more than 6 (juice was nice, so I bought it down, something I rarely do)...

Chicago Bulls -5 -- $220 to win $200

Same here, a rare buy-down for me, but the juice was favorable here...The Bulls have had 2 full days to think about their 41% shooting night vs. Sacramento at Home and how they blew a 15-point lead early in the second half...Milwaukee has had 2 nice wins sandwiched around a 17-point loss to Toronto...I don't see the Bulls losing 3 straight, so hopefully they get over this number...Maybe the Bulls will learn to finish this game unlike on Friday...

San Antonio/NY Knicks over 192.5 -- $101 to win $100

I wasn't going to bet this Over, but if the Spurs reached 197 yesterday at Toronto, I don't see any reason why this cannot hit 193...Knicks have yet to even have a good shooting game this season (and I doubt they will have a great one tonight), but I will take a shot here as the Spurs also reached 188 vs. Dallas, and the Mavs are playing poorly on offense thus far in this young season...In last year's game at MSG (also a 4-of-5 situational spot for SA), the game finished at 205...


Good Luck...brewers7

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Monday's Picks:

Sides:

1) SA, 2) Chi, 3) Port, 4) Orl, 5) Sac, 6) GS, 7) Utah

Totals:

1) SA ov, 2) Orl un, 3) Port un, 4) Utah un, 5) GS ov, 6) Chi un, 7) Sac un

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 0-0
Last 3 days: 6-2 (+$479)
Last 7 days: 11-6 (-$2)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
################################################## ###############
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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Freeze17171
11-07-2006, 12:43 AM
Great to see you here brewers, best of luck!

SwiSha
11-07-2006, 04:52 AM
great picks brewers and welcome to the forum

brewers7
11-07-2006, 05:07 AM
Thanx guys, and Freeze, great to see you here, too...You were money in MLB this past summer, thanx for posting when you did...

brewers7
11-07-2006, 08:58 AM
################################################## ##############
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ################################################## ##############
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
################################################## ##############
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
################################################## ##############
Season To Date: 14-6, +$498

Sides: 7-2, +$452, Totals: 5-3, -$104, 2H Totals: 2-0, +$200, ML: 0-1, -$50

System Plays: 0-0

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No line out yet on the Miami game due to Shaq's status and I do have a pair of 4-games-in-5-days games to look at also...I will be back with some thoughts on the other games and maybe another bet if I see anything that jumps out...

Tuesday, November 7

Atlanta/Cleveland under 187 -- $100 to win $107

I don't know how I can bet this game any other way...I have never been a big fan of betting Unders, but I have bet Unders a LOT more in the last 5 years than in the past and feel I have become a more complete handicapper by doing so...

Here is the way I look at this game from a handicapping stand-point:

Atanta is 6th and Cleveland is 10th in the league (on defense) in FG% allowed, while on offense, Atlanta is 28th and Cleveland is 24th in FG%...Also, both teams have played 3 games each, and all 3 games went Under for each team...The pace of the games for these 2 teams is slow, with total shots around 140 a game for the most part...

Let's break that down further:

With Cleveland, they have played San Antonio, who has 3 Overs and their ONLY Under in 4 games was against Cleveland...The Cavs also played Washington and the Wizards' ONLY Under in 3 games was against Cleveland...The Cavs also played Charlotte and Charlotte has 2 Unders in 3 games (CLE and Memphis)...

With Atlanta, they have played Philadelphia and the 76ers ONLY Under was against Atlanta in 3 games...Atlanta played the Knicks and NY's ONLY Under in 4 games was against Atlanta...And Atlanta played Orlando and the Magic's ONLY Under in 4 games was against Atlanta...

Do we need any more compelling evidence to point to the Under here?...Now hey, this is sports gambling and this game may fly Over the total just for the hell of it or the game may go to overtime and go Over the total, but to me, I can only bet this game Under or not bet the game...I will watch the line move (if any) and decide whether to add any more to this bet later (although I'll probably leave it at $100)...


Good Luck...brewers7

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Tuesday's Picks:

pending...will be added in the afternoon...

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
################################################## ###############
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 3-0 (+$500)
Last 3 days: 6-0 (+$1000)
Last 7 days: 14-6 (+$498)
################################################## ###############
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
################################################## ###############
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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bad gambler
11-07-2006, 10:15 AM
Welcome aboard Steve and good to see another solid capper here - mostly Europeans and Australians who post in the bball forum here so good to have a 'local' helping us out ;)

Mario66
11-07-2006, 10:33 AM
Welcome! :wavey:

Freeze17171
11-07-2006, 10:59 AM
Thanx guys, and Freeze, great to see you here, too...You were money in MLB this past summer, thanx for posting when you did...

Thanks, sorry I stopped posting towards the end of the season, went through a busy period of moving, switching jobs, and not having the internet handy. Never really got back into the flow of posting picks in MLB again.

Great day today!

brewers7
11-07-2006, 09:41 PM
Thanks, sorry I stopped posting towards the end of the season, went through a busy period of moving, switching jobs, and not having the internet handy. Never really got back into the flow of posting picks in MLB again.

Great day today!


No need to apologize, my friend...I appreciated the effort...Thanx again...I will of course do my best to contribute here...

Hope everyone has a profitable NBA season...

brewers7
11-07-2006, 11:52 PM
Additional play:

Tuesday, November 7

Minnesota Timberwolves +8 -- $105 to win $100

There are 2 games tonight that have Away teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights and this is one of them...Ben tracking this trend religiously for more than 10 years...The general rule of thumb if you want to bet the 4th-game-5-nights trend is to always take the Away Team, no matter which team is playing their 4th game in 5 nights...I do not bet it blindly, but in the long run, you generally get value because the public squares always think the Away Team is "tired" playing their 4th game in 5 nights...In some cases, this may be true, but certainly not for all of them, and if you noticed, the Spurs line came down last night and the GS and Minny lines have both gone up today because the public will always bet against the "tired" Away team...

But other situational trends need to be considered...This year, the Clips barely covered against 4-of-5 Phoenix on NOV 4th, and I did buck the trend and bet the Clips because there were OTHER situational factors to consider, the big one being that this was a quick-revenge game and this was the second-time in 3 nights that the Clips played PHOE when the Clips had rest and PHOE did not...The Spurs were an easy choice last night because their starters were rested and their game the day before was in the afternoon, NOT at night, so they got into their hotel rooms at a normal hour with short travel and were NOT fatigued...

Tonight, we have GS and Minny both playing their 4th game in 5 nights...I picked both Away teams...But I will not bet GS because of the let-down situational factor after a big upset at Dallas last night...However I will bet Minnesota because they lost last night and are in bounce-back mode...The T-Wolves had two 4-of-5 games last year, both on the Road, and they covered the game where they lost the night before and they did NOT cover the game where they won the night before...This is somewhat typical for this trend...

The Lakers still seem to be adjusting to getting Kobe back as they pushed the spread and lost in his 2 games back...Minny has played the Lake-show tough the last 2 seasons and even though it appears that Lamar Odom is showing up to play this season and it appears as if the Lakers are much better early on, I won't lay 8 with this team any time soon...I'll take the 4-of-5 Dog here and hope that Minny keeps it close...


Good Luck...brewers7

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Tuesday's Sides:

1) Hou, 2) Min, 3) Ind, 4) Sea, 5) GS, 6) Atl

Totals:

1) Atl un, 2) Ind ov, 3) Sea ov, 4) Hou un, 5) Min un, 6) GS un

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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GodOfGamblers
11-08-2006, 01:26 AM
[QUOTE=brewers7;4417984
Atlanta/Cleveland under 187 -- $100 to win $107

Do we need any more compelling evidence to point to the Under here?...Now hey, this is sports gambling and this game may fly Over the total just for the hell of it or the game may go to overtime and go Over the total, but to me, I can only bet this game Under or not bet the game...I will watch the line move (if any) and decide whether to add any more to this bet later (although I'll probably leave it at $100)...

Good Luck...brewers7

QUOTE]

The evident is clear, You're the man when it's come to the NBA :worship:

Halftime
Atlanta 37- 38 Cleveland

brewers7
11-08-2006, 03:34 AM
Well, unless a miracle OT happens...Frustrating, but bad beats happen...

I watched the final minute on satellite of the Cleveland game and it was painful...LeBron missed a free-throw with 6 seconds left that probably would have iced it (would have made it a 3-point game, ATL no timeouts, CLE may have fouled on purpose to prevent them from making a 3)...Then Lue throws up a floater at the buzzer that somehow goes in...

I wish books offered "regulation" Unders because I get burned about once a month at least on these Unders with OT...If I had bet more than $100, I would have hedged at halftime on the 2H Over, believe me...

The bottom line is the game was handicapped correctly, the pace and numbers of shots were as expected, and it took a miracle OT at the buzzer to cost me the win, but it is a long season, and I generally overcome these bad beats...

If Golden State covers though, Minny may not as I am not sure if both 4-of-5 games will come in tonight...Hope it does comes in, though, obviously...

I did make a play for Wednesday already:
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Wednesday, November 8

N.Y. Knicks/Denver over 208 -- $525 to win $500

I guess I could have waited a few more minutes as the juice has moved even lower on the Over due to the announcement that Steve Francis is out indefinitely with an ankle sprain...This doesn't bother me a bit...With Stevie Franchise playing the first half against SA, the 1H stayed Under (all 4 Knicks games have stayed Under in the 1H and all 4 have gone Over in the 2H -- 1 was OT-aided) and in the 2H against SA, Francis was in street clothes and the Knicks scored plenty without him and earned the Over for the game without him playing...Thee Knicks have plenty of scorers, their problem is defense...Denver, NY and Phoenix have the 3 fastest-paced teams in the league and when any 2 of these 3 teams are playing each other this season, the total should not be less than 220...The Knicks have shot terribly EVERY game this season and yet still have 3 Overs (1 was OT-aided) out of 4 games...Denver shot 50% against Minny on November 3 and the total hit 221 and the T'Wolves certainly have a better defense than the Knicks...With a total of 208 and the pace this game should be at, if these teams just shoot about 46% or 47% for the game, this should go Over without too much problem...I thought about betting more, but with Francis out, I'll leave it at $500 as I would be shocked not to see this game hit 220...

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Mr Flamboyant
11-08-2006, 03:45 AM
Bad luck Brewers .. you were "moosed" on that one ..

Mr Flamboyant
11-08-2006, 06:07 AM
BTW .. Liking the other side on the Nuggs / Knicks total ..

GodOfGamblers
11-08-2006, 06:10 AM
I think I jinxed you guys :)

Atlanta won in overtime 104-95

bad gambler
11-08-2006, 10:00 AM
Public pretty quick to jump on the under in this one by defaull really with Francis out, just going to dig up the numbers to see what the Knicks totals were like when Francis was out last year

gl mate

brewers7
11-08-2006, 11:08 PM
################################################## ##############
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ################################################## ##############
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
################################################## ##############
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
################################################## ##############
Season To Date: 15-7, +$498

Sides: 8-2, +$552, Totals: 5-4, -$204, 2H Totals: 2-0, +$200, ML: 0-1, -$50

System Plays: 0-0

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Ok, will re-post my pick from last night, which I was tempted to bet more on, but hey, don't want to go too crazy here early in the season...I like several games, but am exercising patience and vigilence tonight, sticking with one bet...Plus, I went 6-0 on Sides last night and have won 6 straight #1 Sides, so I am due for a loss...I have tracked my daily picks and rankings for over 10 years now and my longest winning streak for #1 Sides is 11 straight wins...6 straight in early November is a first for me...As for tonight, I will be watching closely for halftime lines to bet...I will also give brief notes on games that caught my eye below my write-up...

Wednesday, November 8

N.Y. Knicks/Denver over 208 -- $525 to win $500

(posted last night) I guess I could have waited a few more minutes as the juice has moved even lower on the Over due to the announcement that Steve Francis is out indefinitely with an ankle sprain...This doesn't bother me a bit...With Stevie Franchise playing the first half against SA, the 1H stayed Under (all 4 Knicks games have stayed Under in the 1H and all 4 have gone Over in the 2H -- 1 was OT-aided) and in the 2H against SA, Francis was in street clothes and the Knicks scored plenty without him and earned the Over for the game without him playing...Thee Knicks have plenty of scorers, their problem is defense...Denver, NY and Phoenix have the 3 fastest-paced teams in the league and when any 2 of these 3 teams are playing each other this season, the total should not be less than 220...The Knicks have shot terribly EVERY game this season and yet still have 3 Overs (1 was OT-aided) out of 4 games...Denver shot 50% against Minny on November 3 and the total hit 221 and the T'Wolves certainly have a better defense than the Knicks...With a total of 208 and the pace this game should be at, if these teams just shoot about 46% or 47% for the game, this should go Over without too much problem...I thought about betting more, but with Francis out, I'll leave it at $500 as I would be shocked not to see this game hit 220...


Good Luck...brewers7
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Notes on other games:

Spurs playing their 5th game in 7 days at Home, so this is a situational spot to fade and Phoenix has 3 days rest coming in and will not want to start 1-4, especially with Dallas on the schedule for tomorrow...

The Rockets went Over in their only bk-2-bk this season and Milwaukee went Over in their only Home game and have gone Over 3 of 4 games...Just smells like an Over to me...

I like the Nets because it is hard to start an NBA season 5-0 these days, especially when the league seems to have more parity than ever, and this low number shouldn't be a problem for rested NJ (4 days rest to prepare for this one)...

The last 2 seasons I talked to a Professional handicapper from Sweden daily and I thought that wouldn't be happening this season as he was going to play poker full time, but we did discuss the games today for the first time this season and he also liked Portland as it was his top play...I love talking with him because he is strong-minded and doesn't just agree with me about eberything, he disagrees with me often and points out some good reasons why he is on who he is on...But anyway, back to this game, just look at the recent history between these 2 teams at Portland -- all the games are super-close (PORT has won 3 straight and lost by 3 and 1 the previous 2 games) and the Lakers are going bk-2-bk, a spot they didn't fare well wth last year although they are 1-0 ATS this season early on...

Only one way to play the Dallas/Clippers total and that is Under...9 straight have gone Under head-to-head and most of them were stone Unders...These type of h-2-h Under series tend to stay that way for a while because if you look at Cleve/Detroit, they have gone Under something like 15 of their last 16 or something close to that...

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Wednesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

1) Phoe, 2) NJ, 3) Port, 4) Orl, 5) Dal, 6) Det, 7) Tor, 8) Was, 9) Den, 10) Milw, 11) Bos

Totals:

1) Den ov, 2) Milw ov, 3) Orl ov, 4) Was ov, 5) Dal un, 6) Phoe ov, 7) NJ un, 8) Det un, 9) Port un, 10) Tor un, 11) Bos un

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
################################################## ###############
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-1 (Even)
Last 3 days: 4-1 (+$500)
Last 7 days: 14-6 (+$516)
################################################## ###############
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
################################################## ###############
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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Ays25
11-08-2006, 11:19 PM
nice work brewers keep it up!

brewers7
11-09-2006, 10:57 PM
################################################## ##############
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ################################################## ##############
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
################################################## ##############
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
################################################## ##############
Season To Date: 16-7, +$998

Sides: 8-2, +$552, Totals: 6-4, +$296, 2H Totals: 2-0, +$200, ML: 0-1, -$50

System Plays: 0-0

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This is a tough board for me, and after talking to my Professional handicapper friend from Sweden for a good 30 minutes about these 3 games, I find he is against me on my top 2 sides...My #1 Side pick has won 7 straight and is 8-1 on the season...My longest streak ever since I started tracking my ranked picks 11 seasons ago is 11 straight winners...I will look for half-time lines again tonight...

Thursday, November 9

Dallas/Phoenix, 1Q, over 51 -- $111 to win $100

Almost passed on the board tonight as I don't like much at all...But I will take a shot here with this 1st-quarter play...Phoenix had a 67-point 1Q opening night when the played the Lakers (combined total, obviously) and since then, have gone Under 4 in the 1st quarter 4 straight games, not really getting all that close to going Over any of those games...Dallas has started fast in most of their games this season, shooting lights out in the 1Q, only to fade over the course of the game and last night was a classic example of that, out-scoring the Clips 32-21 in the 1Q and then losing by 18 for the game...With the exception of the Houston game (a 31-point loss), Dallas has flown Over in the 1Q in their other 3 games, so I believe this is a great spot for Phoenix to end their 4-game Under streak in the 1Q tonight as perhaps these teams can put up 60 here...I only need 52, and since Dallas had a 53-point 1Q against SA and a 53 last night and a 61 vs. GS, I have to say I like his bet more than any other tonight...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Thursday's Picks for tracking purposes:

1) Dal, 2) GS, 3) Cle

Totals:

1) Dal ov, 2) GS ov, 3) Cle un

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
################################################## ###############
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$500)
Last 3 days: 5-1 (+$1000)
Last 7 days: 11-4 (+$996)
################################################## ###############
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
################################################## ###############
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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brewers7
11-10-2006, 09:01 AM
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Early looks at Friday's games (Bets won't be posted until FRI afternoon):

Seattle at Charlotte: Quite a dichotomy here...Seattle is dead-last in the league in FG% allowed (on defense), while Charlotte actually leads the league in this category...Looks like Vegas also believes that defense is more important than offense as they have installed the Bobcats as a small favorite...Seattle has suddenly become a stone Under team their last 2 games and I quite frankly don't see any reason this won't stay Under again...CHAR has 3 straight Unders (in regulation)...

Orlando at Indiana: No line yet as O'Neal is questionable...Indy won all 3 games last year...ORL is currently on a NC4 streak, despite winning 2 straight...Indy blown out last time out at WASH without O'Neal...Indy probably be about a 3 or 4-point FAV here, but I will focus in on the Under as I look at the amount of total shots taken in Orlando games is VERY low, so I have to at least glance in on the Under, despite both teams being in the bottom half of the league in FG% allowed...

Atlanta at Toronto: Another dichotomy game as Atlanta is 3rd in the league in FG% allowed, while Toronto is 3rd-worst (28th)...ATL has won and covered 3 straight and had a nice upset win at CLE 2 days ago in OT...Let-down spot here for the Hawks so an early lean to TOR...ATL has also gone Under every game (in regulation) while TOR has gone un-ov-un-ov...The shots per game in ATL games is very low...TOR's is high in every game except vs SA, so TOR could be a chameleon team that plays to the style of their opponent...If this is the case, this Under should be easy...

Milwaukee at Washington: How easy does this Over look?...I expect that total to shoot upwards...Watching the Wiz play several times now, I see a team not overly concerned with defense as they run up and down the floor...The strange thing with Milwaukke is that their 4 Overs have been against teams known for defense, while their only Under came against Toronto...Very strange...Washington has flown Over 3 straight games and just missed going Over in their opener...

Denver at Philadelphia: No more undefeated teams left and now only one winless team left: Denver...K'Mart is out for a few weeks now...Philly started incredibly well, shockingly enough at 3-0, but that was perhaps a mirage as they are the same team as last year who added nobody of significance...Philly Over 3 of 5 and Denver Over 2 of 3 and although I was thinking this Denver team was going to be putting up Phoenix totals all year, I am starting to wonder if this is true or not after this 0-3 start...It's either Over or a no-play here and I would have to pick the Nuggets to get their first win...

Utah at Boston: Utah 2nd in the league in FG% allowed and Boston is 9th believe it or not...Boston Under 3 of their 4 games (in regulation) with the only Over being against Washington...Utah has 3 Unders in 5 games so I would have to lean to the Under here, despite the head-to-head series going Over 4 straight and 7 of the last 8, but this is one of the higher Vegas totals posted for this matchup in a while...Boston has also covered 4 straight and 7 of 8 in this series, so if you like Boston, take it Over, and if you like Utah, take it Under...I am one never to follow the crowd blindly, so I lean to Boston and the Under for the moment as I expect the public squares to be on Utah...

Miami at New Jersey: No line yet as we wait and see if SHAQ can play...I always like quick-revenge spots early in the season, and they have worked really well thus far this season, so I will lean to NJ here as they lost at Miami last week, the only game the Heat covered...NJ owned the Heat last year (until the playoffs)...Both teams in the top 11 in FG% allowed and the pace of the games in terms of shots taken has been slow for both teams so far this season...

NY Knicks at Houston: New York has gone Over 4 of 5 and surprisingly, Houston has gone Over 3 of 5...Houston might be glancing ahead to playing Miami next, but this is certainly a let-down spot for the Knicks...A lot of contradictory trends and info here, but with Jamal Crawford starting now and flourishing (35 in his first start last time out) instead of coming off the bench (due to the Steve Francis injury), the Knicks aren't going to miss a beat scoring points as I mentioned before their last game...Leans to the Over and the Dog here...

New Orleans at Portland: The Hornets played last night and got their first loss at GS, but their starters did not play a ton of minutes so I don't see fatigue being a factor here...A let-down spot here for Portland after a big win vs. the Lakers...Tough game for me to cap as I think Vegas dd a good job with both the line and the total...Stay-away game for me...

Detroit at LA Lakers: This line if off the board as Rip Hamilton is questionable...The Lakers have yet to cover the spread since Kobe returned (they did have a push)...I cannot see Detroit losing 3 straight, and they should get 2 or 3 here and it'll be more like 6 if Rip is out...Detroit has been unpredictable with their totals, while the Lakers have gone Under 2 straight after 4 Overs...Lakers actually 7th in FG% allowed and even more surprsing is that Detroit is 20th (I guess they miss Big Ben Wallace)...

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brewers7
11-10-2006, 11:04 PM
################################################## ##############
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ################################################## ##############
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 17-7, +$1098

Sides: 8-2, +$552, Totals: 6-4, +$296, 2H Totals: 2-0, +$200, ML: 0-1, -$50, Quarters: 1-0, +$100

System Plays: 0-0

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My #1 Sides plays have won 8 straight and are 9-1 on the season...My #1 Totals are 7-3 thus far...I like my Totals better than my sides tonight...Tempted to make several bets, but I have been too hot, and am waiting for the other shoe to drop, so I will limit my bets and look for 2H bets tonight...

Friday, November 10

Atlanta/Toronto, 1H, under 96.5 -- $103 to win $100

Ok, I realize I have only lost ONE bet since last Friday and that ONE loss was Atlanta Under at Cleveland on Tuesday and it took a miracle OT to give me that loss...Am I tempting fate again?...Well, OT cannot burn me this time as I will bet the 1H...

Atlanta has been a Stone Under team in the 1st half every game this season...They have also gone Under every game this season (in regulation) fairly easily...The pace of their games and shots taken have been slow and low, respectively...Atlanta is 3rd in the league in FG% allowed (on defense)...Ok, Toronto is 28th and love to run-and-gun, and yes, the last 8 in this head-to-head series have gone Over, but 2 of those were OT-aided Overs...Milwaukee is also run-and-gun and have gone Over 4 of their 5 games, yet, when they played at Toronto, the game stayed Under and they had a 201 total that game...And now we are to expect Atlanta and Toronto to hit 201?...And Speedy Claxton (their starting point guard) is doubtful tonight...Toronto and Philly had a slow-paced 1H last time out and then exploded for 125 in the 2H, and Atlanta did have a high-scoring 2H at Cleveland last time out, so since ATL has yet to even come close to going Over in the 1H this season, I will bet this game Under in the 1st half...

Other notes: I may add other bets, not sure yet...The Knicks have gone Under in all 5 of their games in the 1st half and have gone Over all 5 of their games in the 2H (1 was OT-aided, tho)...Something tells me the Denver/Philly game might fly Over and the same goes for the Milw/Was over...A Professional Handicapper friend of mine from Sweden loves the Hornets/Port game Under along with the Hornets, Knicks and Jazz...I want to bet several games, but am trying to be vigilant here...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Friday's Picks for tracking purposes:

1) Tor, 2) NO, 3) NY, 4) Den, 5) Orl, 6) Char, 7) NJ, 8) Milw, 9) Det, 10) Bos

Totals:

1) Tor un, 2) Den ov, 3) NY ov, 4) Milw ov, 5) NJ un, 6) Char un, 7) Orl un, 8) Bos un, 9) Det un, 10) NO un

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$100)
Last 3 days: 3-1 (+$600)
Last 7 days: 12-3 (+$1621)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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brewers7
11-11-2006, 02:53 AM
Additional play:

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One win in, so I'll take another shot here with a final play of the night unless I can get some guts and pull the trigger on some of these 2H bets that have been easy tonight and I have passed on every single one...

Friday, November 10

New Orleans -2.5 -- $105 to win $100

Coach Nate McMillan will not be on the bench for Portland due to a death in the family and Brandon Roy will be out again tonight for Portland who is coming off an emotional win over the Lakers on Wednesday...The Hornets lost at Golden State last night for their first loss of the season...

This sets up a NBA Handicapping 101 situation for me that dictates: "You always take the good bounce-back team vs. the bad let-down team"...

Make no mistake, this Hornets team will make the playoffs this season unless they get some serious injuries...Chris Paul is not having a sophomore slump, in fact, he is flourishing this season...He couldn't hit an outside shot last year to save his life, and now he is burying shots from the perimeter, so look out now...Portland started out 3-3 last year and then collapsed, like most bad teams do...They have energy early in the season and garner a few wins, but the teams with the horses ebentually wear down everyone else and teams like Portland are left in the dust...

Although Zach Randolph has been a monster this season and in fact, I don't believe Portland is all that bad (but Darius Miles is hurt and Roy is hurt), the bottom line is they are not a playoff team...Hornets' starters did not play extended minutes last night, so I doubt whether fatigue will be a factor and I like the Hornets to bounce back tonight and grab a win over Portland, as I am not sure Randolph can repeat that 36-point performance of 2 nights ago...


Good Luck...brewers7
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brewers7
11-11-2006, 08:49 AM
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Early looks at Saturday's games (Bets won't be posted until SAT afternoon):

Seattle at Atlanta: Ok, a few things here...Seattle is 29th in the league in FG% allowed (on defense), while Atlanta is 3rd...Seattle has suddenly become a stone Under team on this Road trip and the pace of their games has even slowed dramatically...The Sonics game totals the last 3 contests have gone Under the Vegas number by a whopping aggregate total of 88 points (almost 30 points Under a game)...Atlanta has been a Stone Under team all year, until getting an OT-aided Over on TUE and a late foul-fest Over at Toronto yesterday...I am sorry, but I am not seeing a 200 game here (total is at 202) so it is just a matter of whether I bet the game total Under or ATL Under in the 1H again, since they have had 5 easy 1H Unders this season...Sure, 3 of the last 4 between these 2 at ATL flew Over, but this really appears to be a different ATL team this season...

Now we get to my favorite NBA trend, the 4-games-in-5-days trend...The general rule of thumb is you always take the Away team in a game where a 4-of-5 team is playing...If the Home team is playing their 4th game in 5 days, then the trend is stronger and if both teams are playing their 4th game in 5 days, taking the Away team is stronger yet...If the Away Team is the only one playing their 4th game in 5 days, you still take the Away team and it is still fairly strong...In fact this season, the Away Team playing their 4th game in 5 days is 4-1 ATS, covering 4 straight occurrences...I don't bet this trend blindly as I consider all other factors and other trends, but I think Seattle can cover this one as ATL is going to have a flat spot sooner or later...

Boston at Cleveland: The Celtics have yet to cover the spread this season (they did have a push)...Both teams are on Over swings after starting the season with multiple Unders...BOS has 3 straight Overs (1 OT-aided) after 2 Unders and Cleveland started with 3 straight Unders, an OT-aided Over and another Over, and I think there will have another Over tonight...CLE does play to the level of their competition sometimes, but this is the time last year when the Cavs had a C8, so are they about to go on a nice run with some "inferior" competition coming up on their schedule?...Cleveland is 1-0 ATS this season in what I call "check-mark" games, and that is a team with rest playing a team on the back-end of back-to-back games...

NY Knicks at San Antonio: The Knicks have played 4 straight Overs and the Spurs have surprising played 4 Overs (1 was OT-aided) in 5 games...I said before the season started I would ride the Knicks and Nuggets Over trains (yet stupidly passed on both yesterday) so my inclination here is the Over of course, but if the Spurs bury this team, the Under may come in...Isiah Thomas won't allow his team to quit, but my gut is wondering if this is the game where the Knickerbockers get slaughtered...

Orlando at Minnesota: The Magic are currently on a NC5 streak...So they are either under-achieving or over-valued or both to this point of the season...The Under just seems like a natural here despite this head-to-head matchup going Over all 3 games last season...Minny will be looking to end a 3-game losing streak...Minny is 1-0 in check-mark games and Orlando is 0-1 on the back-end of back-to-back games when their opponent has rest...

Utah at Milwaukee: The Jazz are 5-1 and Milwaukee is 2-4 so on the surface, this is a game the Bucks need to get themselves back on track...The Bucks have gone Over 5 of their 6 games, while Utah totals are up this year, with 4 games going Over 200...I don't see any immediate trends or angles to sink my teeth into so this would seem like a no-play game for me...

Indiana at Chicago: This is the second 4-games-in-5-days trend for Saturday, and I don't think the Away Team gets it done here...Chicago is in extreme bounce-back mode after a thrashing at Cleveland on TNT Thursday night, where the cavs shot 57% against the defensive-minded Bulls...The Pacers got killed by WASh when the Wiz had rest and the Pacers were playing their 2nd game in 2 nights, and covered against the Knicks, but BOTH teams were playing their 2nd game in 2 nights in that one...Indiana went Over in both of their back-enders this season...I think the Bulls could win this by double-digits...

Memphis at Phoenix: The Grizz had Phoenix's number a bit last year, covering all 3 meetings (winning 2 SU)...No Gasol now and the Suns are ultra-hungry for a win after their worst start since 1997 at 1-5...The Suns have gone Over 5 of 6 (1 was OT-aided and 1 stayed Under by 1/2-a-point) and Memphis has gone Under in all 4 of their games (in regulation time)...Both games went Over at PHOE last season...

Detroit at Golden State: This line if off the board as Rip Hamilton is still questionable...GS had covered 9 straight head-to-head until Detroit covered last season in their final meeting on 12/23/05 at Detroit...The Pistons had a nice win last night against the Lakers at Staples so this is a let-down spot and Detroit ceratinly has not been anything close to consistent yet this season...The Warriors have been inconsistent themselves and I'll be leaning to the Over when this line comes out...

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brewers7
11-11-2006, 09:24 AM
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I'll update records and such later today if I place another bet (will probably take ATL Under in the 1st half again)...

Saturday, November 11

Seattle/Atlanta under 202 -- $110 to win $100

I guess I can just copy-and-paste most of what I already previewed about this game:

I cannot see this total going any direction but down as the day goes on, perhaps falling down as far as 197 maybe...Seattle is 29th in the league in FG% allowed (on defense), while Atlanta is 3rd...Seattle has suddenly become a stone Under team on this Road trip and the pace of their games has even slowed dramatically...The Sonics game totals the last 3 contests have gone Under the Vegas number by a whopping aggregate total of 88 points (almost 30 points Under a game)...Atlanta has been a Stone Under team all year, until getting an OT-aided Over on TUE and a late foul-fest Over at Toronto yesterday...I am sorry, but I am not seeing a 200 game here (total is at 202)...I will be looking to also bet the Under on the 1H again, since Atlanta has had 5 easy 1H Unders in all their games this season and Seattle was obviously EASILY Under the 1H total in every game on this Road trip thus far...Sure, 3 of the last 4 head-to-head meetings between these 2 at ATL flew Over, but this really appears to be a different ATL team early this season, slowing the pace down and running the offense through Joe johnson at times, and he has responded with a terrific start to the season...

Good Luck...brewers7
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brewers7
11-11-2006, 10:51 PM
The Atlanta total didn't drop hardly at all to my surprise although the Bulls line shot up which was no surprise...Should have bet CHI last night although I am still considering GS for a bet (trap of the night)...My 16-2 run on my NBA Top 3 sides ened last night going 1-2, so look for a possible cooling off period here, although 17-4 ain't a bad run...

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Added play:

Saturday, November 11

Seattle/Atlanta, 1H, under 98.5 -- $104 to win $100

Atlanta has been easily Under in the 1H in all 5 of their games and SEA has been easily Under all 3 games of this Road trip...I have had a good week, so if I blow $200 here because this game turns into a track meet, then so be it, but I am one who will ride out some trends to the end, and from a handicapping point of view, there is no other side to be on here, because if you are taking this game Over, it is strictly a gut-shot play and if it flies Over then I congratulate you on having a good gut, because the pace and shots taken for all ATL games this year points to the Under and the pace and shots taken for all 3 SEA games on this Road trip point to the Under tonight...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Saturday's picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) GS, 2) Sea, 3) Chi, 4) Milw, 5) Orl, 6) Memp, 7) SA, 8) Cle

Totals:

1) Sea un, 2) Cle ov, 3) Orl un, 4) Chi un, 5) SA ov, 6) GS ov, 7) Milw ov, 8) Memp un

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sports freak
11-12-2006, 12:11 AM
The Atlanta total didn't drop hardly at all to my surprise although the Bulls line shot up which was no surprise...Should have bet CHI last night although I am still considering GS for a bet (trap of the night)...My 16-2 run on my NBA Top 3 sides ened last night going 1-2, so look for a possible cooling off period here, although 17-4 ain't a bad run...

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Added play:

Saturday, November 11

Seattle/Atlanta, 1H, under 98.5 -- $104 to win $100

Atlanta has been easily Under in the 1H in all 5 of their games and SEA has been easily Under all 3 games of this Road trip...I have had a good week, so if I blow $200 here because this game turns into a track meet, then so be it, but I am one who will ride out some trends to the end, and from a handicapping point of view, there is no other side to be on here, because if you are taking this game Over, it is strictly a gut-shot play and if it flies Over then I congratulate you on having a good gut, because the pace and shots taken for all ATL games this year points to the Under and the pace and shots taken for all 3 SEA games on this Road trip point to the Under tonight...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Saturday's picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) GS, 2) Sea, 3) Chi, 4) Milw, 5) Orl, 6) Memp, 7) SA, 8) Cle

Totals:

1) Sea un, 2) Cle ov, 3) Orl un, 4) Chi un, 5) SA ov, 6) GS ov, 7) Milw ov, 8) Memp un

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Keep up the good work champ, enjoy these writeups best of luck!!!

brewers7
11-12-2006, 01:50 AM
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Added play:

Saturday, November 11

Cleveland Caviliers, 2H, -9.5 -- $107 to win $100

I don't like the fact that they are down 14, so they basically have to win to cover because if they lose, they will lose by more than 4 in all likelihood, but this is a standard 2H play for me because the inferior Road team is shooting 52% at the Half and the superior Home team is shooting 26% at the half, so I am morally obligated as a handicapper to take Cleveland even though as I watch the game on TV, Cleveland has no life at all...Maybe they will feel like playing in the 2H, we'll see...This may be a bad night...Proceed with caution...

Good Luck...brewers7
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brewers7
11-12-2006, 08:48 AM
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Early looks at Sunday's games (Bets will come later):

New Orleans at LA Clippers: The Clips only 2 Overs were against Phoenix thus far...Thyey held Denver to their only Under of the season at Home and barely kept Dallas Under along with Portland...NO is 4th in the league and LAC is 6th in the league in FG% allowed, and the Hornets have played 4 Unders in 6 games...I can see one team hitting 90 here, but to have both teams getting at least 95 seems like a bit of a stretch here unless both teams shoot lights out...Clips have won 4 straight & covered 3 straight after a NC2 and the Hornets have a current NC3 and 2 losses after starting the year with a C3 and 4 wins...I am not sure if this matters, but the last time these 2 teams played at Staples last March, the Clips led 59-49 with about 8:00 left in the 3Q before being outscored 40-8 to close out the game (yes, the game) as the Hornets I believe set a modern-day NBA record for futility with just 16 points in the second half, losing 89-67...I think the Hornets can get Under the number but I see an Under here as the stronger play...


New Jersey at Washington: Can NJ rise up without Richard Jefferson and win (or at least Cover) this game?...The general rule of thumb is that you take a team with a star player out that first time...And I am not sure what is going on with that Stone Over the last time out for NJ after 3 Unders to start the season...A 219 vs. Miami?...This logic can sometimes be ill-fated logic when handicapping, but if NJ and Miami can combine to score 219, how is that not happening again against a Wizards' team not interested in playing defense?...The Wiz lead the league in points scored while are 23rd in FG% allowed...NJ is 7th in FG% allowed...7 Overs in the last 10 head-to-head...I got to say Over and just ignore the side and see how NJ adjust without RJ...

Denver at Charlotte: No total posted here as Brevin Knight's questioable status must be the reason for that...Denver Over in 3 of 4 games, while CHAR has 4 straight Unders (in regulation) and are still #1 in the league in FG% allowed...Denver is 4th worst...The pace will be quick as this young CHAR team is quick and scrappy, and I think this will lend it self to a lot of turnovers on both sides and easy baskets...I do like the Over...Denver has played 4 close games thus far and I would think this one will be down to the wire, too, but I'll back Denver here...

Houston at Miami: This game lends to the Under at first glance...However, upon further review, we see a strange 219 last time out for Miami and the Rockets have 4 Overs in 6 games thus far...But Miami has 3 Unders at Home, while both Overs were on the Road...I look for a slower pace here and I have no problem leaning to Houston to win this straight up (but doubt if I'd bet that)...

Toronto at Sacramento: Toronto Coach Sam Mitchell flew off the handle after their last loss and is threatening to shake up the starting lineup...SAC has been a different team at Home for years and since they acquired Ron Artest last season, they have re-established their Home Court advantage...I wonder when the loss of Brad Miller will start to have an impact as it hasn't yet as SAC won and covered both Home games...I expect TOR to bounce-back a bit after their coach's tongue-lashing...As far as the total goes, I am wondering if SAC is a chamelion team, in other words, a team that plays to the pace of their opponent...Their 4 Unders were against defesnive-minded teams who prefer a half-court game, while their only Over was against MILW...With that said, I cannot help but like the Over here as both games between these teams hit 210 or more last year...

Dallas at Portland: Dallas finally got a win, but they won't get Josh Howard back for another week or so...Portland is off to an impressive 4-2 start despite having 4 key players injured...I really am in absolutely no mood to lay 5.5 at PORT as the Blazers are 3-0 at Home, but I think that Finals hangover is just about done with dallas and I believe that Coach Avery Johnson will get this team on a roll now that they finally got a "W"...The Mavs have some win-able games upcoming, and going to PORT has not scared this team one bit recently, so I think the Mavs will win, but that number may be tough to cover...PORT has had 5 straight Unders and this head-to-head matchup has produced 7 Unders in the last 8 meetings...

Memphis at LA Lakers: Double-header at Staples here, but no line posted...Not sure why (maybe because Kobe had an ice-pack on his knee late in their last game while getting hammered vs. Detroit)...MEMP has been Under in regulation in all 5 games played and the Lakers have gone Under 3 straight after 4 Overs to start the campaign...Both games went Over at Staples last season, but 1 was OT-aided...The Lakers have yet to Cover since Kobe returned (one was a push, though)...A ntaural lean to the Under and if the line isn't ridiculous, I'll lean to the Lake-show to turn the tide of this head-to-head series that has seen MEMP cover 7 of the last 8...

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brewers7
11-12-2006, 07:52 PM
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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ################################################## ##############
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
################################################## ##############
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 19-10, +$979

Sides: 8-3, +$447, Totals: 6-5, +$186, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-0, +$300, ML: 0-1, -$50, Quarters: 1-0, +$100

System Plays: 0-0

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My top 3 NBA Sides have gone 20-4 the last 8 days, but I keep being snake-fascinated by totals, though...I post ALL of my picks because if you cap your own games and you come up with a play that I also picked and ranked highly, then that should be a bet for you...I rank my plays in order of preference, from best to worst...My #1 NBA Sides are 10-2 on the season...And here I go betting a total again...I may have another bet later, not sure...

Sunday, November 12

New Orleans/LA Clippers under 192 -- $101 to win $100

I am not sure why this total has gone up all day, but I will gladly tale an extra 3 points and bet the Under...The Clips only 2 Overs were against Phoenix thus far...Thyey held Denver to their only Under of the season at Home and barely kept Dallas Under along with Portland...NO is 4th in the league and LAC is 6th in the league in FG% allowed, and the Hornets have played 4 Unders in 6 games...I can see one team hitting 90 here, but to have both teams getting at least 95 seems like a bit of a stretch here unless both teams shoot lights out...These 2 teams played a 156 game here at Staples last March...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Sunday's Picks for tracking purposes:

1) Memp, 2) Hou, 3) Tor, 4) NO, 5) Den, 6) Dal, 7) NJ

Totals:

1) NO un, 2) Den ov, 3) Memp un, 4) Tor ov, 5) Dal un, 6) Hou un, 7) NJ ov

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-2 (-$114)
Last 3 days: 3-3 (-$19)
Last 7 days: 8-4 (+$981)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
################################################## ###############
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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