AFL Finals - Week 1 [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

AFL Finals - Week 1

bad gambler
09-04-2006, 11:31 AM
Obviously really early to start a thread but thought it might be an idea to get some discussion going early.

All odds courtesy of Centrebet, no lines available as yet but you can pretty much guess what they wil be based on the ML odds:



ST KILDA 1.65
MELBOURNE 2.20

ADELAIDE 1.90
FREMANTLE 1.90

WEST COAST 1.40
SYDNEY 2.90

COLLINGWOOD 1.46
WESTERN BULLDOGS 2.65




All I will say is wow to odds for the Sydney-Eagles game. I mean Sydney are my team but even the objective punter has to admit given the teams' recent history those odds on Sydney are huge when IMO Eagles should deserve only slight favouritism based on home ground advantage alone.

Freo were given a 17.5 point start a AAMI when the two teams meet only a matter of 3 weeks ago. Now they are at pk 'em, pretty much sums up Freo's surge to the finals and Crows' decline in the run into the finals. Will need to see the Crows team list for this one to have an opinion.

Saints and the Dees on Friday should be a very close game - given this is at the G, a ground that Melbourne have played well this season apart from that one game a month ago against the Swannies (they were severely short handed in that one) I can easily see the Saints getting done in this one. Saints won't be too much of a factor this finals series IMO on the basis of their reliance on Riewoldt and GTRain in attack and the fact that they do not travel well. To win a flag you need to be able to win on the road. One thing going in the Saints' favour is that they are a very good Friday night team, for one reason or another.

The final game on Sunday will again be at the G. Will again need to see the team sheets for this one, but one feels the Doggies have already achieved what they wanted to achieve at the outset of the season, that is to make the finals. I think their time to make a serious push for the flag will come in the next few years when their young list gains more experience, as there is no doubting the talent that exist in that club, especially with so many players to return from long term injury next season.

I have already taken the Swans ML, I can not see them drifting anymore this week and if anything they will be backed right in come Saturday night IMO. I will also be on the line once it comes out as well.


Swans to beat the Eagles - $2.90


good luck

$@M
09-04-2006, 11:55 AM
hmmm... personally can't see the Swans winning this one... WCE will get their revenge from last season and pound the Swans to the ground, imo... lol, but that's my opinion.

Really like the Dockers to beat Crows... too hot to handle and I just can't see the injury-plagued Crows stopping them...

My prediction for week 1 will be Saints, Dockers, Eagles and Pies ~ :)

bossboss
09-04-2006, 12:34 PM
took Swans at 5.5 for the flag.. i will wait after next week .. to hedge it when nessecary .

might try swans at whatever the line is .. usually the game is very close

Collingwood will take care of WB.

2 other games no bet..

dave nz
09-04-2006, 04:57 PM
Anyone know why the Collingwood game was taken off board earlier today. Then re-released with the Pies abit longer in the market ?

I'm sure I could find out with abit of digging but thought someone here might know first......

bossboss
09-05-2006, 02:08 AM
Anyone know why the Collingwood game was taken off board earlier today. Then re-released with the Pies abit longer in the market ?

I'm sure I could find out with abit of digging but thought someone here might know first......

same odds still exists at CB at Tuesday 11:00 AM .. collingwood 1.46 - WB 2.65

they were longer for a while because buckley was reported .. now he is cleared by AFL .. odds back to were it started

Finns4
09-05-2006, 08:47 AM
Fremantle look the goods, but the home ground advantage for the crows in the finals is always a major factor. $1.90 just doesnt seem worth it to me atm. Closer to the game i think Fremantle will drift to $2... but ill wait in see.

Il take the Swans Line if its higher that 12.5 and Fremo

au_sports_opinion
09-05-2006, 09:37 AM
I think the three favs will get up and Freo in the even game.

dave nz
09-05-2006, 10:37 AM
same odds still exists at CB at Tuesday 11:00 AM .. collingwood 1.46 - WB 2.65

they were longer for a while because buckley was reported .. now he is cleared by AFL .. odds back to were it started


I wasn't aware Buckley had been reported. Cheers......

sports freak
09-05-2006, 11:10 AM
To be honest i still believe the Eagles will take out the Flag now,for some reason someone is telling me upstairs,lol!!!What a racker of a finals series!!!

Saints vs Demons - Cracker jack of a game,to be honest if the Saints are full strength they will cause Demons headsches,Dees dont have anyone 2 stop a rampaging Gehrig n Rievolt alos Hamill n Kozzy will cause trouble,sort of a miss match for the Dees,thats why the Saints are a difficult team!!!

Adelaide vs Freo - What another carcker of a game,geez ez this ones a ripper n hopefully it will be up to expectations!!!Crows showed tremedous grit n physicalness against the Dees no doubt they will be using the same Method which is brutal fatal tackling on their opponents requested by Craig n make sure it bloody hurts!!!No way they can keep up with a hard running Freo therefor stop any flow on the game!!Taking the 15pts either way could be ideal in this game aswell as the Saints vs Dees imo!!!

West Coast vs Sydney - West Coast comfortably,Big Lynch is in form n has got more experinced now then needed,West Coast middle is too much for the Swans,also no Hansen last yr which was another Blow to the Eagles who had a ifty forward line at that time due to inexperince n injuries!!!

Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs - Looked at the interview of Eade n geez he doesnt look confident,like a scared man!!Pies have the key positions to win the game,but they will need to make most of it since the Dogs will punish any lack of effort no doubt!!!

Good luck!!!

bossboss
09-05-2006, 11:17 AM
Lines are Out.....

WC Eagles X Sydney ..the line is -+15.5 .. which is very Odd .. because the line is the same as Pies X WB .. but the ML is different

pies are out from 1.45 to 1.5 now ..and sydney are down from 2.9 to 2.75 .. but still that doesn't make sense on the line

Finns4
09-06-2006, 06:00 PM
Yeh that swans line makes no sense, would rather hit either teams +15.5 makes more sense to me

dave nz
09-08-2006, 07:27 AM
Will have an AFL bet tonight following the rugby match I just posted. GL guys.

bad gambler
09-08-2006, 07:55 AM
Dees to cover +5.5 v Saints - $1.90

good luck

$@M
09-08-2006, 08:35 AM
Dees to cover +5.5 v Saints - $1.90

good luck
taken the opposite, Saints -5.5 @ 1.92

at least one of us will win ~ :)

dave nz
09-08-2006, 10:21 AM
Melbourne ML (+120) for 1 unit

sports freak
09-08-2006, 10:44 AM
No Kerr n Embley for the Eagles wow,not good signs although i still believe they can win!!Looking into it further with the lineups,watch out for the young fella who ran amok in his first game while kicking 4 goals,could here be another Jarred Brennan/Andrew Walker??yes it is abit harse!!

bossboss
09-08-2006, 12:02 PM
i had sydney at 5.5 to win the flag 1 Unit ....start of this week.. hedged it today with 1.5 units on WC Eagles at 1.5 ...
if sydney wins they are straight to Semi-final and got only 2 games left to hedge
if they lose i recovered 0.75 unit and will hedge them again vs the winner of Pies X WB

SadrieL
09-08-2006, 12:08 PM
St Kilda = chokers

SadrieL
09-08-2006, 12:21 PM
And as I say that they score the last 20 points.

SadrieL
09-08-2006, 12:51 PM
Nevermind, they still managed the choke.

bad gambler
09-08-2006, 12:58 PM
lol I take it you did not watch the prelim final last year between the Saints v Swannies? ;)


Saints are not a team to be backed in the business end of the season

bad gambler
09-08-2006, 01:00 PM
And tomorrow another bunch of chokers play - fill your boots

bossboss
09-08-2006, 01:02 PM
Dees to cover +5.5 v Saints - $1.90

good luck


Well done... you are the only one who saw this coming....

glad i skipped it :)

bad gambler
09-08-2006, 01:03 PM
Well done... you are the only one who saw this coming....

glad i skipped it :)

:lol:

Dave got the money with the ML - my numbers had this to be a Dees win by not many, didn't want to take the risk of another ML moose

bossboss
09-08-2006, 01:10 PM
Melbourne ML (+120) for 1 unit


Well done too.. Excellent stuff

dave nz
09-08-2006, 01:10 PM
Melbourne ML (+120) for 1 unit


:cool:

Good job to all Dee's backers.

Back later

dave nz
09-08-2006, 01:13 PM
:lol:

Dave got the money with the ML - my numbers had this to be a Dees win by not many, didn't want to take the risk of another ML moose


BG we both got this one and both got moosed in our other posted play.

I don't know if u say the Harbour game, unreal how they didn't cover.

bad gambler
09-08-2006, 01:16 PM
BG we both got this one and both got moosed in our other posted play.

I don't know if u say the Harbour game, unreal how they didn't cover.


Heard the Nth Harbour kicked like 1 goal from 6 attempts all game? Ah well can't win them all.

bossboss
09-08-2006, 01:18 PM
:lol:

Dave got the money with the ML -

yeah .. didn't see it at first.. but saw it later... Well done Guys...

this year a had few bets on st. kilda that i remember them by heart

Against Geelong .. pick sT. Kilda(they were firing and Geelong were on a losing streak) bet lost
Against Pies .. pick pies .. bet lost
Against mebourne Round 10 ... pick st. kilda .. bet lost
Against Wb R22 .. pick Wb bet lost

i decided to skip tonight game

bad gambler
09-08-2006, 01:21 PM
yeah .. didn't see it at first.. but saw it later... Well done Guys...

this year a had few bets on st. kilda that i remember them by heart

Against Geelong .. pick sT. Kilda(they were firing and Geelong were on a losing streak) bet lost
Against Pies .. pick pies .. bet lost
Against mebourne Round 10 ... pick st. kilda .. bet lost
Against Wb R22 .. pick Wb bet lost

i decided to skip tonight game


They are a bit like that, an enigmatic team sure - in fairness they have had a shocking run of injuries over the past couple of years which never helps either.

Tomorrow is when the big boys play - should give some clues as to who is going all the way this year.

xcrap
09-08-2006, 01:35 PM
damn saints had it in the bag when injuries came in..

they wrecked my parlay with knights in nrl..

dave nz
09-08-2006, 01:44 PM
Heard the Nth Harbour kicked like 1 goal from 6 attempts all game? Ah well can't win them all.


Worst part was one hit the post from right in front and missed lol :eek:

No point dwelling on the negative, onwards and upwards!

bad gambler
09-09-2006, 12:53 AM
Afternoon game...

Adelaide to beat Freo - $2.10

Also got the Swannies ML from Monday $2.90


good luck

qzziestevo
09-09-2006, 12:57 AM
With u on the crows, dont believe the hype :)
crows for 3 u
gl

Bolar Bolabi
09-09-2006, 03:59 AM
Sydney +13.5

Adelaide V Crows - Either team under 15.5 @ $3.30

TMJordan
09-09-2006, 04:54 AM
need alittle help here mates...how solid are this crows this afternoon?

dave nz
09-09-2006, 05:45 AM
Small one for me :


Fremantle ML (-111) over Adelaide-------------0.5 of a unit




gl

dave

bossboss
09-09-2006, 05:47 AM
need alittle help here mates...how solid are this crows this afternoon?

they are solid as the odds indicates (Even) .. advantage home court . Disadvantage : narrow lost to Freo coupe of week ago in regular season and Freo won the last nine in regular season

second (Adelaide)and third (Freo) on ladder ..

TMJordan
09-09-2006, 05:49 AM
they are solid as the odds indicates (Even) .. advantage home court . Disadvantage : narrow lost to Freo coupe of week ago in regular season and Freo won the last nine in regular season

second (Adelaide)and third (Freo) on ladder ..

Thanks...I put a unit on them, I dont really follow this but I think the experience factor plus playing at home will be the difference, at least I hope so!

Go Crows!

bossboss
09-09-2006, 05:56 AM
just took adelaide for the flag at 5.25 .(1 unit)... and Freo ML for this game at 1.86 ( 1 unit)..

bad gambler
09-09-2006, 07:16 AM
just took adelaide for the flag at 5.25 .(1 unit)... and Freo ML for this game at 1.86 ( 1 unit)..


You should have held off on taking the Crows outright if you thought the Dockers would win today - they will ease in the betting if they lose today

Terrible game so far - one end of the ground has a huge wind advantage. If Freo lead by around 30 into the final qtr they are home.

bad gambler
09-09-2006, 08:23 AM
Afternoon game...

Adelaide to beat Freo - $2.10

good luck


As the saying goes you can't teach an old dog new tricks. Same old Freo today.

Besides the fact that I have the Swannies tonight, I really want them to win - a loss tonight and they stare down the prospect of having to travel to Subi again in a couple of weeks, which would effectively end their hopes of a flag IMO....


RISE THE MIGHTY RED & THE WHITE!!!!!!!

sportpunter
09-09-2006, 08:35 AM
just took adelaide for the flag at 5.25 .(1 unit)... and Freo ML for this game at 1.86 ( 1 unit)..

interesting, considering that they played each other....at least the adelaide flag unit is looking better

sportpunter
09-09-2006, 08:38 AM
great win by adelaide. Just watched it, they are looking good despite a depleted side

sports freak
09-09-2006, 08:41 AM
Impressive win by the Crows,but the Eagles are still the One!!!!!

bad gambler
09-09-2006, 08:43 AM
Crows won't win the flag - they don't have the players to kick straight

bossboss
09-09-2006, 08:47 AM
interesting, considering that they played each other....at least the adelaide flag unit is looking better

yeab.. 2 games to go.. i reckon they will be favorite (short) against whoever they gonna play (LosserWEagles/Sydney -Winner Pies/WB) ..most likely sydney which i already have at 5.5 for the flag 1 unit... lots of juggling but hopefully profitable

bad gambler
09-09-2006, 12:10 PM
3 of 5 Eagles goals so far have come from free kicks - good job umps :rolleyes:

bad gambler
09-09-2006, 12:23 PM
6 free kicks inside the eagles 50m so far

I should have known better - swans are not allowed to win in Subi by the men in white (green in this case)

SadrieL
09-09-2006, 01:07 PM
SWANS!!!!! BY A POINT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What an AMAZING game!!!!!

bad gambler
09-09-2006, 01:08 PM
CHAMPS

xcrap
09-09-2006, 01:09 PM
go swannies..

beat the umpires and eagles!

SadrieL
09-09-2006, 01:10 PM
Congrats to the Swans ML backers, must have been one of the most thrilling games I've ever seen.

bad gambler
09-09-2006, 01:12 PM
Swans to beat the Eagles - $2.90


good luck


Too easy :p

$2.90 = disrespect to the best team in the comp. Hopefully the books bled tonight

Mr Flamboyant
09-09-2006, 01:22 PM
6 free kicks inside the eagles 50m so far

I should have known better - swans are not allowed to win in Subi by the men in white (green in this case)

I was about to respond to this by saying that flags aren't won at Subiaco and that the Swans still look the best all round side to win the flag, but if they've got home tonight (which judging by the recent posts, they have) then what they've ended up doing tonight speaks for itself ..

Mr Flamboyant
09-09-2006, 02:33 PM
Collingwood v Bulldogs .. over 221 total points - $4 .. It's finals time and games are usually tighter but does the above proposition not look more than a tad askew .. ?? ie this game should be high scoring .. ?

bad gambler
09-09-2006, 02:40 PM
I was about to respond to this by saying that flags aren't won at Subiaco and that the Swans still look the best all round side to win the flag, but if they've got home tonight (which judging by the recent posts, they have) then what they've ended up doing tonight speaks for itself ..


As I posted above, if Swans lost tonight they would have had to go back to Subi in 2 weeks time if they wanted to win the flag this year. No way they would have been able to pull it off this yr with that kind of schedule.

So in this case, it was a must win for them tonight ;)

bad gambler
09-09-2006, 02:41 PM
Collingwood v Bulldogs .. over 221 total points - $4 .. It's finals time and games are usually tighter but does the above proposition not look more than a tad askew .. ?? ie this game should be high scoring .. ?


If the game was played at the Dome then I would have given it a bit of a chance, but not at the G

Mr Flamboyant
09-09-2006, 04:28 PM
Ah huh .. presumed it was to be played in the confines of the TD .. thanks!

Public is clearly on the Bulldogs .. The Pies have eased from $1.45 ish to $1.52 .. BG, you declared the Dogs were done a fortnight ago .. but their opponents don't really inspire a lot of confidence either .. They've whacked a couple of lowlights in the run to the finals ..

Bulldogs look the value at $2.45 .. Surely you'd be loathe to touch Collingwood at their price .. But match-up wise across the ground I guess is all important ..

Bolar Bolabi
09-09-2006, 04:58 PM
Bulldogs will win. I'll place the bet when I wake up.

sports freak
09-10-2006, 12:14 AM
Ah huh .. presumed it was to be played in the confines of the TD .. thanks!

Public is clearly on the Bulldogs .. The Pies have eased from $1.45 ish to $1.52 .. BG, you declared the Dogs were done a fortnight ago .. but their opponents don't really inspire a lot of confidence either .. They've whacked a couple of lowlights in the run to the finals ..

Bulldogs look the value at $2.45 .. Surely you'd be loathe to touch Collingwood at their price .. But match-up wise across the ground I guess is all important ..

Only problem is can the Dogs stop Rocca/Tarrant?most likely not too much of a handful,Dogs will need to be able to kick a winning score with the Pies having a good defence aswell as the best offence in the league!!!

Bolar Bolabi
09-10-2006, 02:09 AM
Bulldogs +12.5 - Only stage fright will stop this from cashing.

bad gambler
09-10-2006, 02:42 AM
The scum for me today, just shopping around for the best line at the moment

Mr Flamboyant
09-10-2006, 03:00 AM
What's the weather doing in Melbourne ..? Have heard it's wet .. For once there's a totals option available .. Line's at 200.5 u/o .. ?

bad gambler
09-10-2006, 03:56 AM
Pies to cover -11.5 v Dogs - $1.93

good luck

bad gambler
09-10-2006, 07:30 AM
Pies to cover -11.5 v Dogs - $1.93

good luck

Lost

Dogs just dominated through the middle - if they show this type of run they are a big chance against the Eagles next week

au_sports_opinion
09-10-2006, 09:07 AM
:( :( :( Pies.

Oh well, Sydney are looking good, I had $100 on them at $10 before Round 1.

edit: Shouldn't have done that. Telling ppl my bets when they're looking good is always a jinx I know I've farked it now :)