1 Bet A Day Challenge [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

1 Bet A Day Challenge

elroyf
07-13-2006, 10:41 PM
Hi!

Not any active betting challenge threads here so I thought I would start one!!

The challenge - to make one bet a day!

I think one of the enemies of the gambler is to bet TOO MUCH! Once they have won a bet they can't help but make another bet and then they lose!!! Or they just lose and lose and lose.....

So this challenge will be to make (maximum) of one bet a day!! It requires a lot of patience!!!

Rules:
Tennis win or lose only(no set betting, handicaps etc)
Singles only!!!
Analysis ALWAYS!!

I think people will be suprised how successful this can be!

I will start small only £10, when I have 10x my starting stake, I will bank half. I will bet everything on the next bet until I reach my target.

So my first target is £100.

Comments, question, input etc is all welcome :)


Vamos!

rich_a
07-13-2006, 11:24 PM
I was just thinking about this today. I generally see a few bets that I like the look of and go with all of them, however, hardly ever do they all come off.

It's a good idea. Discipline and patience = $$$ (well hopefully anyway!)

GL

elroyf
07-13-2006, 11:35 PM
Thanks rich.

Discipline is the key here. Looking at tomorrow and looks tricky!

elroyf
07-14-2006, 12:18 AM
Leaving Gstaad alone - a lot of dodgy results in the past here - and Newport is in for some BAD weather against tomorrow. So it will have to be Bastad, the quarter finals.
Some close matches tomorrow.

Day 1, Robredo over Korolev @1.39 (Betfair)
Korolev is a really good young player. He is usally over priced and I was on him today to beat Horna, which won. His favoured surface is clay and he has beaten some good players. One thing I have noticed is that he can be very incosistent and often loses to players worse than hiim.
He could have gone far in this tournament, but unfortunately he is playing Robredo. He is underated I feel and I thought his odds would be lower. He is a top 10 tennis player and is top 5 of clay. This year, aside from a shock first round loss in Rome to Rusedski (which was playing particularly quick), he has played 4 clay tournaments and lost 3 times to players no lower than 12th in the rankings (Ancic, Gaudio and Nadal), winning Hamburg.
Robredo is a top clay court tennis player and loses to few on the surface. He got to the semis here last year and lost to Nadal, the eventual winner and I expect Robredo to win the tournament this year. For Korolev, this is one challenge to far in his early career but he has a bright future.

Stake £10
Returns £13.71 (after commission)

good_gambler
07-14-2006, 08:47 AM
Anyone can play this right???
I am going to do this just for fun:
And start with $5 because it sounds interesting.

Day 1.
ATP Newport Quarterfinals:
Justin Gimelstob over Kristian Pless @ $1.53
Stake: $5
Return: $7.65

elroyf
07-14-2006, 10:21 AM
Yeah sure everyone can join in.

But you have to put anlysis!! It is one of the rules!!!
Also, it would good put your records of this challege after you have done a few bets such as ROI, stake, profit, banked.

elroyf
07-14-2006, 01:57 PM
Day 1, Robredo over Korolev £10 @1.39 (Betfair)

Total stake: £10
Total profit: £3.71
Balance £13.71
ROI: 37.1%

First bet won!! Always the hardest one! A good start.

Horatio Caine
07-14-2006, 09:16 PM
Great idea man..good luck :yeah:

elroyf
07-14-2006, 10:06 PM
Great idea man..good luck :yeah:

Cheers Jez - you should join in. Long time no see.

good_gambler
07-15-2006, 06:06 AM
Yeah sure everyone can join in.

But you have to put anlysis!! It is one of the rules!!!
Also, it would good put your records of this challege after you have done a few bets such as ROI, stake, profit, banked.

Didn't read that prior to yesterday.
Sorry. :o
Will try to analyse as best as possible from now on.

elroyf
07-15-2006, 09:40 AM
Didn't read that prior to yesterday.
Sorry. :o
Will try to analyse as best as possible from now on.

No worries - good start!

elroyf
07-15-2006, 10:06 AM
Since I am leaving Gstaad alone I have 4 matches to choose from - and it is tricky! DavydenkovCallieri - you never know when Davy is going to throw a match, Nieminen v Robredo - Nieminen is playing really well although I strongly favour Robredo, Philippousis v Melzer - I would go for Philip, but he is poor vs lefties. So I am going to go for Murray! But the top seed has never one in Newport!!! So a tentative selection

Day 2, Murray over Gimelstob £13.71@1.33 (Betfair)
Gimelstob has played well here so far, playing three big servers. His ground strokes are not the greatest so he tends to rely a lot on his serve. Pless, Arthurs and Whitehouse. They are not in the top 100! The field is very weak here and Murray (ranked 40 odd) is top seed!! Gimelstob is not a great player. He suited surface would be grass and he does not have a very good record on that either! He rarely beats players in the top 50.
Murray is top seed here, which just shows how weak the field is in Newport. It's not a great tournament! But he has played well and beaten Kendrick, Querrey and Mello (none in the top 100!). After struggling against Mello, saving 5 MPs(!), he has played much better and beat Kendrick with a double bagel. He must have gained a lot of confidence from that as Kendrick possibly should be top 100 and can play on grass (showed this against Nadal).
All I can say is that Gimelstob is the type of opponent that he loves: a big server. Murray is GREAT returner and can just guide the ball back with interest. Murray should be able to deal with Gimelstob no problems. The only thing counting against me is that the no.1 seed in Newport has never won the tournament, I believe! But maybe Murray can change this? Or lose to Phillippousis in the final!

Stake: £13.71
Returns: £18.02 (after commission)

Horatio Caine
07-15-2006, 10:59 AM
I agree with you in that Murray is the pick of the bunch today...Gimelstob is another of those Americans with a big serve...but he has a good volley. Apart from that, he has no other real weapons. Murray has to serve well otherwise he will have to pass 6'5 inches of Gimelstob virtually every point...but he likes these sorts of matches. I'd expect a comfortable win for Andy here.

As for the curse for #1 seeds...Murray needs to face Flip to have a better chance of winning the title. His returns can give the Aussie a head-ache. I wouldn't expect Melzer to beat Muzza either...but he is a better all-round player and would probably prove more of a threat. Really, the tournament is Muzza's for the taking.

good_gambler
07-15-2006, 11:46 AM
Day 1 - Justin Gimelstob over Kristian Pless $5 @ $1.53 (Centrebet)

Total stake: $5
Total profit: $2.65
Balance $7.65
ROI: 53.0%

Day 2
ATP Newport Semifinals:
Mark Phillippoussis over Jurgen Melzer @ $1.48 (Centrebet)
Mark playing in his first semi-final in more than a year and hasn't had his serve broken throughout the tournament as yet. Hopefully will be on his game and should get through nutcase Melzer comfortably.
Stake: $7.65
Return: $11.32




P.S...Sorry for the poor analysis.:o

Horatio Caine
07-15-2006, 02:34 PM
I'll check back within the next couple of weeks and see how you guys get on with this...it is a great idea but pretty risky! :lol: If you're still on a winning streak, and I hope you are, you have sold the system to me and I will try it :yeah:

elroyf
07-15-2006, 05:39 PM
I'll check back within the next couple of weeks and see how you guys get on with this...it is a great idea but pretty risky! :lol: If you're still on a winning streak, and I hope you are, you have sold the system to me and I will try it :yeah:

Yeah pretty risky!

Not sure when to stop and bank some :confused:

Now thinking of trying to get to £100 and banking £80 then trying to do £20 to £200 (if it goes well of course!)

Any suggestions?!

elroyf
07-15-2006, 10:56 PM
Well Murray lost!! Awful performance. Well, I can only try again! I have done similar challenges before (successfully) and I think the best thing to do after a loss is to have a day's break, so see you on Monday!

bad gambler
07-16-2006, 01:43 AM
This method is really good one for beginners as it enforces discipline - may not to bet half the bank but the principle remains the same

good_gambler
07-16-2006, 05:02 AM
Day 1 - Justin Gimelstob over Kristian Pless $5 @ $1.53 (Centrebet)
Day 2 - Mark Philippoussis over Jurgen Melzer $7.65 @ $1.48 (Centrebet)

Balance: $11.62
Total Invested: $5
Total Profit: $6.32
Total ROI: 132.4%

Day 3
ATP Newport Final
Mark Philippoussis over Justin Gimelstob @ $1.40 (Centrebet)
Going with Mark again. Hasn't played in an ATP Final for so long and should be really be enjoying the run he is on. Haven't followed Gimelstob much but from what I have worked out (mainly from the ATP website) has not played in an ATP Singles final. :confused:?? Even though he has been around for a while will still be feeling nervous.
Mark still has not had his serve broken in the tournament and only lost the one set against Melzer in a tiebreak.
Haven't played each other since 2000 so head to head stats are not much useful...

Stake: $11.32
Return: $15.85

elroyf
07-17-2006, 06:57 AM
OK starting again!

Day 1, Capdeville over Behrend £10@1.6 (Betfair)
Not much time to analyse. But basically, Behrend plays very little hardcourt and almost exclusively on clay. After the US Open, he has only played 6 hard court matches.
Capdeville has played 16.
Capdeville is certainly more suited to the surface and seems to get through qualifying and to at least the first round at the major events - similar or better than Behrend.
Behrend obviously doesn't enjoy it so much. Fingers crossed!

good_gambler
07-17-2006, 01:28 PM
Day 1 - Justin Gimelstob over Kristian Pless $5 @ $1.53 (Centrebet)
Day 2 - Mark Philippoussis over Jurgen Melzer $7.65 @ $1.48 (Centrebet)
Day 3 - Mark Philippoussis over Justin Gimelstob $11.62 @ 1.40 (Centrebet)

Balance: $15.85
Total Invested: $5
Total Profit: $10.85
Bank: $5

Day 4
WTA Palermo Round 1
Michaella Krajicek over Emmanuelle Gagliardi @ 1.40 (Centrebet)
Really like Krajicek's game and her big serve. She's risen to number 36 in the world and while clay isn't her favourite surface should be well and truly to strong for an average player like Gagliardi (ranked 118). Gagliardi's lost 3 of her last 4 matches and her last event was on clay in Italy where she struggled to a second round loss to unknown Yvonne Meusburger.
This is also the only match today that I could have picked with some confidence.

Stake: $10.85
Return: $15.19

elroyf
07-17-2006, 08:01 PM
Doh! I come back to see that something went wrong when I placed the bet (!)

OK, instead, now I am taking:

Lu over Sabau £10@1.69 (Betfair)
Simple pick, not much explanation needed.
Sabau has won TWO matches in the last 12 months on HC!!!!! Shocking stat!
Lu has won 35 in the same period.
Lu is an up and coming youngster and Sabau just hasn't got what it takes at the top level!

elroyf
07-18-2006, 07:00 AM
:rolleyes:

One more time, third time lucky! I need a good start!

Day 1, Reynolds over Alves £10@1.59
Reynolds plays most of his tennis on hard courts and he has had some pretty decent results in challengers this year. He has not done too well at ATP level but should have too much for Alves, he is not so hot on hard.
Sorry, not much time to write!

good_gambler
07-18-2006, 11:26 AM
Day 1 - Justin Gimelstob over Kristian Pless $5 @ $1.53 (Centrebet)
Day 2 - Mark Philippoussis over Jurgen Melzer $7.65 @ $1.48 (Centrebet)
Day 3 - Mark Philippoussis over Justin Gimelstob $11.62 @ 1.40 (Centrebet)
Day 4 - Michaella Krajicek over Emmanuelle Gagliardi $10.85 @ 1.40 (Centrebet)

Balance: $15.19
Total Invested: $5
Bank: $5
Total Profit: $15.19

Day 5
WTA Cincinnatti Round 1
Gisela Dulko over Marta Domachowska @ $1.40 (Centrebet)
Gisela keeps burning me and yet I keep coming back to her. :o May not be the smartest bet but am going with her anyway. Has been in good form lately making 4th round of Roland Garros and 3rd Round of Wimbledon. Went 1-1 in Fed Cup tie with a dissapointing loss on Day 2 but back to the "real" competition now. Domachowska's 4-11 in her last 15 matches, losing to players in the low 200's and 500's in her last 2 matches. They have played once will Dulko winning easily. That being last year and most importantly on hard court.

Stake: $15.19
Return: $21.27

elroyf
07-19-2006, 06:39 AM
I think I have the luck very much against me. End of challenge for me for the moment at least!

Keep it up good gambler! Some good picks!

good_gambler
07-19-2006, 01:24 PM
Day 1 - Justin Gimelstob over Kristian Pless $5 @ $1.53 (Centrebet)
Day 2 - Mark Philippoussis over Jurgen Melzer $7.65 @ $1.48 (Centrebet)
Day 3 - Mark Philippoussis over Justin Gimelstob $11.62 @ $1.40 (Centrebet)
Day 4 - Michaella Krajicek over Emmanuelle Gagliardi $10.85 @ $1.40 (Centrebet)
Day 5 - Gisela Dulko over Marta Domachowska @ $15.19 @ $1.40 (Centrebet)

Balance: $21.27
Total Invested: $5
Bank: $5
Total Profit: $21.27

Day 5
WTA Cincinnatti Round 2
Gisela Dulko over Amy Frazier @ $1.65 (Centrebet)
Basically for the same reason as my last bet. I keep going to Gisela. :shrug:
Good form lately and I think a good price over a fading Amy Frazier. Frazier's lost 8 of her last 11 matches and lost her last 4 on hard court before this tournament.

Stake: $21.27
Return: $35.10

Richard_from_Cal
07-20-2006, 12:12 AM
Just to appraise you ...gamesters......

The USA Today, today said:Feds crack down on Internet gambling

The U.S. Justice Department, contending that online gambling is illegal under the Federal Wire Act of 1961, is cracking down on the practice, which has led to arrest warrants and has gaming executives worried, 6C


http://www.usatoday.com/sports/2006-07-18-online-gaming_x.htm

Further inside (^^--see above link for story--^^) it says:U.S. cracking down on offshore betting industry
Updated 7/19/2006 1:51 AM ET E-mail | Save | Print | Reprints & Permissions | Subscribe to stories like this



By Michael McCarthy, USA TODAY
When the U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed a bill cracking down on Internet gambling last week, David Carruthers, CEO of online gaming company Bet On Sports, was one of the most outspoken critics of the proposed law. The 49-year-old British executive has more immediate problems to worry about. Federal agents arrested Carruthers on Sunday at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport as he made his way from the company's offices in London to Costa Rica.

As part of a wide-ranging probe of what the American Gaming Association says is a $12 billion online gambling industry, U.S. Attorney Catherine Hanaway unsealed a 22-count indictment charging racketeering, conspiracy and fraud against Carruthers, 10 others and four companies Monday. A warrant was sworn out for the arrest of 47-year-old company founder Gary Kaplan. U.S. District Judge Catherine Perry also approved the government's request to bar Bet On Sports from accepting bets from this country and forcing it to refund money to U.S. account holders. The FBI has ordered four phone companies to shut off service to the company.

..two
..paragraphs
..that's
..all
..I'll
quote...


VV==various world and U.S. 'takes' on the 'action'==VV
http://www.timesofmalta.com/core/article.php?id=231152
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/world/15071731.htm
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/news/archives/2006/07/19/the_new_prohibition.html
http://www.irishexaminer.com/breaking/story.asp?j=4027455&p=4xz747x&n=4027547
http://lfpress.ca/newsstand/Business/2006/07/19/1691438-sun.html
http://today.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?view=CN&storyID=2006-07-18T211114Z_01_N18248071_RTRIDST_0_LEISURE-BETONSPORTS-CONGRESS.XML&rpc=66
http://www.online-casinos.com/news/news2523.asp

elroyf
07-20-2006, 10:06 AM
Thanks for the info Richard :yeah:

Anyways, I am persistent at least:

Day 1, Gonzalez over Spadea £10@1.4 (Betfair)
"Fena" against "The Rapper". Neither are on great form on HC. But Gonzalez is a class player and his big hitting should be too much for Spadea to take. Gonzalez is a top 10 player and I think he will show it this HC season. Not much more to say :)

good_gambler
07-20-2006, 11:41 AM
Gisela Dulko...:rolleyes:

Makes Elena Dementieva look like the best server on the tour!
Back to the start..Will give it one more go.

Day 1 - Iveta Benesova over Karin Knapp $10 @ $1.53 (Centrebet)
Knapp's only playing in her second WTA event this year and while she has had some good victories hasn't beaten a player in the Top 100 this year. Benesova has been in rubbish form but that has been in mostly grass tournaments and usually beats players ranked 100+. Had a fairly good win last round.

elroyf
07-21-2006, 07:04 AM
Let's see how this goes:

Day 1, Gonzalez over Spadea £10@1.4 (Betfair) Returned: £13.81 (after commission)

At Indy, I think Mahut will give Blake a torrid time - James don't like serve and volley. Roddick is too short vs Muller. Srich v Ginepri - too close to call. So...

Day 2, Gonzalez over Malisse £13.81@1.63 (Betfair) Returns £22.10 (after commission)
I'll keep it short. Gonzo is really playing well here and Malisse not so much. He served badly versus Tursunov and gave away a lot of bps. But Tursunov served worse! Gonzo served really well winning 89% on his first serve and giving few bp opportunities. First time he has played here and it seems he likes the conditions.

elroyf
07-22-2006, 06:49 AM
Another loss - end of challege for me. Other bets that I am making are going fine - just can't seem to get anything going here!

How is it going good gambler?

good_gambler
07-22-2006, 09:11 AM
End of challenge for me to...
Might try again sometime soon but for now putting it to bed.

Just see how I go in a few other bets for a while but this is / was a good idea and I'm sure I'll try something similiar soon. :yeah:

Minotaur
07-22-2006, 10:38 AM
Hi!


I think one of the enemies of the gambler is to bet TOO MUCH! Once they have won a bet they can't help but make another bet and then they lose!!! Or they just lose and lose and lose.....


No offense. But your strategy is a bit odd.

Betting is not for everyday, if you see a target get a shot, if you see no target... There are days when everything is risky and the nicest idea is not to bet all.

elroyf
07-22-2006, 09:43 PM
Minotaur, as you will see here especially, most people here bet everyday on many bets (addicted maybe?!) but my strategy was to have AT MOST one bet. So if you don't have a shot, don't bet!

Minotaur
07-23-2006, 08:15 AM
Minotaur, as you will see here especially, most people here bet everyday on many bets (addicted maybe?!) but my strategy was to have AT MOST one bet. So if you don't have a shot, don't bet!

Ok. Sorry. I was wrong :)

elroyf
07-23-2006, 09:55 AM
Hey Minotaur, why don't you have a go at the challenge? You can start small and try and build up a large bank!

If you started with 10 units (£10, $10 etc) and bet everything on a 1.2 bet each day for a month, it would come to £2,370!

RFitzpatrick
07-31-2006, 08:29 PM
I might join in as well:)


Here you go:



Sam Querrey - Wesley Moodie 1.58£ (10£)

Sam, the us-youngster will beat Moodie today. Moodie has had a quite bad year so far, that shouldn't change today.:)