AFL Round 9 [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

AFL Round 9

bossboss
05-24-2006, 02:31 AM
Short Preview

Collingwood X W. bulldogs.... no bet
will try some exotics on disposals later.

Geelong X Richmond
Geelong to cover -23.5 .. geelong can't be that bad they showed last week . at Skilled stadium. they will cover

Adelaide X Carlton
Cartlon +45.5 .. Big start ... they will not be trashed 2 weeks in a row

Essendon X Port
essendon win at $1.62 .. chad cornes injured port lost last 4 .. essendon last 7 .. they need a win at Telstra dome

Hawthorn X Sydney
Sydney -24.5 .Hawthorn have problems with big forwards like rocaa, thompson and brown and lost by big margins now Barry Hall turn .. no match in defense .. Zac again ..Sydney proved that they can kick big score

Lions X Freo
Lions -11.5 .. low line at gabba

St Kilda X Kangaroos
Kangaroos +31.5 .. big start .. more 50-50 match to me

Eagles X Melbourne
eagles -20.5 .. 5 in a row is just fine for melbourne .. eagles back at Subaico.. Will cover

gahh
05-24-2006, 05:36 AM
Adelaide X Carlton
Cartlon +45.5 .. Big start ... they will not be trashed 2 weeks in a row


Yes we could.

Though last year the circumstances were pretty similar and it was 15 points. The year before they weren't as good and we beat them.

But no, it'll be a record breaking loss probably

Mr Flamboyant
05-25-2006, 05:01 AM
I think the safest bet of the weekend is West Coast X Crusaders (super 14 final) @ $1.75 .. very very difficult to see either team losing .. Could probably throw in the Swans to beef the price up a bit too ..

hawker
05-26-2006, 01:47 AM
Good luck this round guys.

Heres Tonights Preview

Betting Preview
Tonights match features by far the 2 most exciting teams in the competition right now. They both play attacking running footy and are the highest scoring teams in the competition. Collingwood take the balls out the wings and feed it in to their big gun forwards while the Doggies go a bit more agressive riskier style taking it straight up the guts.

Both teams are very dangerous once up forward with a very big conversion rate once inside 50 and the dogs have giansiracusa leading the league with most goals assists on 22 and pies have tarrant and didak equal second with 19.

Collingwood currently placed nicely with 6 wins and just the 2 losses against the two top sides in Adelaide and West Coast though most of their losses have came against bottom sides they have been very impressive. They keep getting better and better and won by 102 points last week as slight underdogs vs Geelong. They have been playing very attacking footy ever since Round 2 averagin a massive 126 points a game,

The Western Bulldogs are coming of a 26 point loss to Sydney last week and have lost 3 of their last 4 games all against quality opposition Adelaide, Sydney and St Kilda. They do play a very FREE flowing brand of footy but the points do seem to dry up a little against the top 8 sides especially when not playing at the Telstra Dome.

Last time these 2 teams met The bulldogs were 1.09 favourites how things have changed since then. Collingwood come into this one as 1.35 favourites to the Bulldogs 3.40 which doesnt reflect on how well the bulldogs can play and dont deserve to be this bigger underdogs.

This year at the MCG Pies have been dominating with their 102 point win over Geelong last weeked aswell as a win over Carlton by 72 and Essendon by 17.

The Dogs havent played at the MCG this year but in the past they have been able to keep their games reasonably competitive their.

This really should be an exciting game to watch and although I think that Dogs are the value at the H2H odds I think its going to be a close game and will go with the more inform team of late the pies by the 1-39 margin

1 unit Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.40



As usual on a friday night I also assess the high goalscorer and most possesions where I have found it very hard in finding value in tonights match between 2 very free flowing teams.

High Goalscorer Value
Both these teams share the goals around so much that it is hard to pick a winner in these markets.

For colligwood, definately couldnt say Tarrant, he will get his 4 or 5 every now and then but produces so many 0s aswell. Seems to dish alot of due to his inaccurate kicking.

Didak will often chip in with 3 or 4 and a fe the dogs in Johnson, Murphy and Robbins are always capable of their 3 or 4.

Though I think i will stick with someone a bit more consistent in Rocca. He has kicked 3 or more 5 times in 8 matches this year including an 8, 5 and 4.

Value: Anthony Rocca $4.50

Most Disposals Value
Most Disposals this week is between the following players ( west 2.75, buckley 5.50, obree 5.50, licuria 7.00, holland 8.00, cross 8.00, giansiracusa 8.00, gilbee 8.00 )

To win most disposals tonight you will need atleast 30 possies with so much ree flowing flooty there should be plenty high possession winners. Holland, Cross and Gilbee are always consistent to get near the 20s but dont think they can get enough for tonight.

Both Giansiracusa and O Bree are having fantastic seasons for their clubs both really lifting it a notch and could well be up their at the end of the game but in the past havent really played well against this opposition.

Licuria is having a quiet season by his standards consistently getting his low 20s but at one stage in his career you couldnt back against him in most possesion contests. Last 2 times vs the bulldogs he has racked up 35 and 28 possesions so it will be interesting to see if he lifts again tonight.

Of course you can never go against Scotty West either, mr consistent so it would seem week in week out getting 30 odd. He is averaging 26 possies a game this year but surprisingly only 21 in losses. Last time vs the Pies he did record a massive 36 possesions though and definately deserves to be the hot favourite every time he lines up on that field.

There is noone in this lot that is massive value this week but im gonna give the value to Buckley at $5.50. He might not be in his best form of his life but still playing good footy. He is averaging 23 possies a game this year and coming off a 29 possesion game last week. He has a very good record against the dogs and many times has got between 30-40 possesions in a game against them.

Value: Nathan Buckley $5.50

hawker
05-26-2006, 01:48 AM
Also have strong leans on the following this round which most likely will be taking.

West Coast 1-39
Essendon -10.5
Sydney -22.5
St Kilda -28.5

gahh
05-26-2006, 02:28 AM
I'm taking the line in 7 games, trying a new strategy. Need 4+ for a profit

Bulldogs +20.5
Geelong -22.5 (I'd love to be wrong)
Port +12.5
Sydney -22.5 (heaviest lean)
Dockers +9.5
St Kilda -28.5
West Coast -20.5

The Adelaide game I'm leaving alone because taking a line of almost 50 points is insane, yet it could happen

bad gambler
05-26-2006, 08:39 AM
Going to play a total for the first time this year...

Overs 209 Collingwood v Bulldogs - $2.05

gl

g35-great
05-26-2006, 10:15 AM
i have taken wester bulldogs +20.5 @ 1.90

i am checking the scores now, can someone tell me how many minutes is 1 quater in these afl games?

Mr Flamboyant
05-26-2006, 10:44 AM
Generally they're 20 minutes, but for some reason fourth quarters tend to go on for anywhere up to four hours..!

g35-great
05-26-2006, 11:04 AM
true... i saw the first quater go for more than 35 mins :rolleyes: thats why i asked... and also anyone watching western bulldogs can u tell me how they are playing any chance for them to cover +20.5 ???

Mr Flamboyant
05-26-2006, 12:10 PM
You need a couple of late goals g35 .. Collingwood lead 130-98 at the 18 minute mark of the 4th quarter .. probably 12 minutes at least remaining in the match ..

bad gambler
05-26-2006, 06:07 PM
Going to play a total for the first time this year...

Overs 209 Collingwood v Bulldogs - $2.05

gl


win

bad gambler
05-28-2006, 12:41 AM
Fremantle to beat Lions - $2.35


gl

sports freak
05-28-2006, 01:13 AM
Fremantle to beat Lions - $2.35


gl

Good luck BG on the Dockers,like em aswell!!Also leaning on Demons +19.5 ,Thank you Undue for the great win yesterday :worship: had him as a place bet which was great but if i had some on the win,wouldve made my day :)
Killem 2day Tiger

sports freak
05-28-2006, 01:29 AM
Been busy,so havent post much but tiume to get some winners for the weekend!!!

40 units on Melbourne Demons + 19.5 pts over West Coast Eagles - Like the Demons allround game to cover n maybe an upset win imo!!!

Good luck - Tailing BG on Fremantle aswell!!!!!

gahh
05-28-2006, 03:04 AM
i am checking the scores now, can someone tell me how many minutes is 1 quater in these afl games?

Quarters go for 20 minutes of actual playing time, and added 'time on' or stoppage time. The average quarter would go for 30 mins, if there are a lot of goals or ball ups it could go longer. Or a stretcher. They can go for 25 (bare minimum) to 40 (the most I've ever seen)

bad gambler
05-28-2006, 03:10 AM
McPharlin and Farmer are both out, greaaattt....

bad gambler
05-28-2006, 06:30 AM
Fremantle to beat Lions - $2.35


gl


I wish I knew about McPharlin and farmer before I placed this bet, my own fault, bet lost


AddIng:

unders 182.5 Eagles v Dees - $2.40

gl

b_boy
05-28-2006, 07:30 AM
eagles can't kick straight, 11 behinds already.

bad gambler
05-28-2006, 07:36 AM
They never kick straight, they have no key forwards

bad gambler
05-28-2006, 07:50 AM
HT: Eagles 41-36

bad gambler
05-28-2006, 09:49 AM
unders 182.5 Eagles v Dees - $2.40

gl


win

gahh
05-28-2006, 11:11 AM
I'm taking the line in 7 games, trying a new strategy. Need 4+ for a profit

Bulldogs +20.5
Geelong -22.5 (I'd love to be wrong)
Port +12.5
Sydney -22.5 (heaviest lean)
Dockers +9.5
St Kilda -28.5
West Coast -20.5

The Adelaide game I'm leaving alone because taking a line of almost 50 points is insane, yet it could happen

Only 3/7, though because I had substantially more on the Swans I won for the round, not much though