AFL Round7 [Archive] -

AFL Round7

05-11-2006, 05:10 AM
St. Kilda X Geelong
Fraser is back scored 6 last week .. interesting match up with Scarlett who will win this one .but St.kilda other weapons are also destructive. Geelong will miss Mooney for suspension and his absent will leave great impact. if the match is in Geelong it will be a 50-50 .. but at Telstra Dome. ST. Kilda will cover the small line -8.5

Melbourne X Freo
Freo won last 2 , Melbourne won last 3 ..the game is in MCG where Freo has a bad record .. the match will be tight and low scoring.. Melbourne just.. odds are good for melbourne at 1.78 more than freo

Sydney X Richmond
richmond escaped with a 2 point win over essendon last week and they were lucky .. sydney will play at stopage more and their team structure is much better.
Richmond are due for a loss and sydney started to go back into the winning sides where they belong after a slow start. Sydney to win easily at 1.65

Hawthorn X Brisbane
as i said before. i decided to bet against Brisbane in all matches .. they only won once in 6 rounds and against Essendon in Gabba. Hawthorn are 4-2. My only issue is if Brown plays Full forward on young Zac who was outlast twice by big bodies Rocca and Thompson for 8 goals each. if Clarkson puts another player on Brown . Another blow for Hawthorn with Croad and Crawford are out . Odds droped from 1.85 to 2.2 but still Hawthorn will win.

Eagles X Collingwood
Collingwood pick Value pick only .. why not.. eagles lost last week . cousins still doubtful.. Cox is not 100% .. on the other hand Judd is on Fire but Brodie Holland can contain him. Collingwood points for is 713 about 1 100 more than any other team.
anyone remember last year when Eagles wre 10-0 and lost to collingwood .. i know at melbourne but this year Collingwood is much better. i wil give it a shot. and Ben Johnsonn will make the Subucio ground look small

Port Adelaide X bulldogs
Bulldogs lost to Adelaide badly in adelaide 2 weeks ago and lost to st. kilda the week after. this time no differnce. Port didn't win at home this year as far as i can remember. but they will this time. Bulldogs have problems in Ruck. and Lade will dominate. Port to win and cover line -12.5

Carlton X Essendon
4 weeks in a row Essendon loses with a very low margin.. they need a win and this is their chance. both teams lost last 5 rounds. Essendon looks better team % is 96 versus 80. I will go for essendon on this one at 1.6

Kangroos X Adelaide
the best team to win.. adelaide won all road matches this season. Riccuito wil be back this week. kangaroos won last week because Thompson was on Zac. and because of all media about previous game against Melbourne. Adelaide crushed Port and are on a hot streak.Adelaide to cover -18.5

05-11-2006, 08:29 AM
nice input thinkinh along the same lines in most matches.

Already looking further into taking St Kilda, Essendon and Sydney most likely all at the lines.

Good to see the mention in the Adelaide/Kangaroos game about Thommo, he wont have it anywhere near that easy against Adelaide. Zac Dawson is a very unexperienced kid, if Hawthorn had a descent fullback Kangaroos could of well been sitting 1-5 like the team they are.

05-12-2006, 05:33 AM
here my views on tonights match.


Friday night footy this week is between 2 teams that have both shown less then expected of them this year with the saints sitting 3-3 but scraping away with the win against the bulldogs last week against Geelong which now site 2-4 after 4 straight losses and in need for a desperate win to stay in touch with the top 8.

Geelong gets a couple of big names in King and Harley but will be without Cameron Mooney. Saints will be out with a couple of big names without milne and kozi, "thumbs up" he may be back soon.

Last time these 2 sides met Saints ran away with it in the second half for a 41 point victory at the Dome.

Saints have been a great team at the Dome for quite some time now winning there last 8 games which includes snapping the doggies 9 game winning streak there last week, over these matches there they have a average of 122 points there and keepi there opposition to an avg of 75. The highest score opppistion has scored is 87 and saints have not been under that once.

Cats dont have a good record at the Dome either losing their last 4 there.

I dont think theres much working in the cats favour here from past records and current form and for the stats minded an interesting stat this year so far in FNF the home team has won ATS 5-1 and 3-0 as Home Favourite.

Dont see it being no different tonight.

1 unit St Kilda -9.5 @ $2.00

High Goalscorer Value
Each week I always put in my input on high goalscorer and this week looking no further then the favourite in big fraser @ 3.25. Reiwoldt @ 6.00 always chips in with a consistent 3 goals or so against geelong and has been consistent this year aswell and does have the potential to be up there at the end. Big fraser though was back in form last week with a match winning 6 goals after a fairly slow start to the season but still kicking his 3 or so goals. At the dome this yar he is averaging 3.7 and if he can manage just 4 tonight should be enough to be the high goalscorer tonight.

Value: Fraser Gehrig @ $3.25

Most Disposals Value
Most Disposals this week is between the following players ( hayes 4.50, dal santo 5.00, ling 5.50, corey 5.50, harvey 6.50, ball 9.00, bartell 9.00, enright 9.00 )

Looking past the favourite here, Lenny Hayes has had a great start to the season but the last few weeks his posession count has dropped away a bit with 22,22 and 20 his last 3. Joel Corey has been pretty similar to Lenny having a blistering start to the season with the last few weeks quieting back down and he does seem to play alot better at home.
Cameron Ling was back in form last week racking up 31 for the cats and has a good past vs St Kilda though this week im going to go with the inform Nick Dal Santo @ $5.50. Last week Dal got 34 possies and has been red hot all year. including an average of 28.7 possies in his 3 games at home.

Value: Nick Dal Santo @ $5.50

05-12-2006, 06:01 AM
I like St Kilda -9.5 as well. I think that was the line at least that I took.

Tough betting round though, that's about all I'm taking

bad gambler
05-12-2006, 07:20 AM
Geelong to cover +9.5 v Saints - $1.91


bad gambler
05-12-2006, 03:50 PM
Geelong to cover +9.5 v Saints - $1.91



05-13-2006, 12:37 AM
nice work bad gambler.

sydney -10.5 @ 1.95
essendon 1-39 @ 2.35

sports freak
05-13-2006, 12:50 AM
Lookin at the arvo game,stickin with the Dees to keep the hot streak alive!!Like both Melbourne teams in the AFL n NRL today!!!Best bet of the day imo!!

40 units on Melbourne Demons -4.5pts over Fremantle Dockers - Dont know why the spread is soo low which does worry me abit since the bookies think Dockers have a chance???See a comfortable 4 goal vitory to Dees but hopefully more would go astray!!

Good luck- Other leans on Sydney ML/Lions ML/Wst C -17.5!!!!

sports freak
05-13-2006, 01:10 AM
nice work bad gambler.

sydney -10.5 @ 1.95
essendon 1-39 @ 2.35

Good luck mate,like the Bombers pic!!with the Swans just a word of warning Tigers do play well against them,last season Richo ran amok in Sydney in the rain n bagged somethin like 6-7 goals champ!!!Sydney 1-39 might be better value imo,also Richo was too big n good for Leo Barry in their last matchup!!!Richo for most goals for the game is good value since Swans will spread them,also at $21 for the round is worth a shot but there always the problem of which kicking boots his got on,the Nike ones or Dunlop lol!!

Mr Flamboyant
05-13-2006, 02:50 AM
I could be way off the mark here, but I suspect Mick Malthouse's decision to spell Nathan Buckley for Collingwood's clash with West Coast today is a bit of a concession.

It smacks of "we've pencilled this one in as a likely defeat and are prepared to minimise the damage and move on" .. Not for one second do I think (m)any professional sporting teams adopt a losing mentality before a match (apart from some of those late season "Italian jobs" in the Serie A soccer) but this move from Malthouse does suggest the Pies perhaps aren't as desperate to win this one..