Who will win RG? The view from the markets [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Who will win RG? The view from the markets

Merton
04-24-2006, 04:01 PM
It is a good time to start a thread about the chances of the RG contenders as seen from the point of view of the betting markets. I am interested in the information that the betting odds present here, in the sense that they reveal what bettors think about the winner of RG. Right after Monte Carlo, the odds are as following: (Source: http://www.betfair.com/?rfr=63&mi=4652716)

Odds Probabilities
Nadal 2.28 0.439
Federer 3.4 0.294
Gaudio 26 0.038
Coria 30 0.033
Gasquet 34 0.029
Nalbandian 40 0.025
Safin 55 0.018
Ferrer 60 0.017
Ferrero 75 0.013

The probabilities are implied from the odds in the winner-take-all market, so they represent current probabilities of players winning RG outright.

Merton
04-24-2006, 04:06 PM
Just a few comments: I follow these odds since after the A.O., for some time Roger and Rafa had similar odds of 3:1, then after Dubai Rafa emerged as a slight favourite with 2.7:1 relative to 3.2:1 for Roger. Just before Monte Carlo, Roger was slightly behind, with 2.9:1 versus 2.8:1 for Rafa. After Monte Carlo, the line moved significantly and now Rafa appears as the favourite.

For the other contenders, i think it is remarkable that Richard commands such high odds given that he has not played a single match on clay.

Action Jackson
04-24-2006, 04:07 PM
Beating Federer once on clay will do that Merton.

CooCooCachoo
04-24-2006, 04:07 PM
Pretty obvious figures.

Merton
04-24-2006, 04:11 PM
Odds for dark horses: Chucho at 95:1, Almagro at 100:1.

Merton
05-15-2006, 03:31 PM
This is a good time to update this thread, right after Rome. I will report the highest implied probabilities, all odds come from here: http://www.betfair.com/?rfr=63&mi=4652716

Nadal: 0.495
Federer: 0.323
Nalbandian: 0.033
Almagro: 0.017
Gasquet: 0.012

Both favourites have improved their odds, the biggest change has been the substantial drop in Coria's price, trading now at odds 140:1 and the increase in Almagro's price, trading now at 60:1. Safin has also fallen to 150:1

Merton
05-15-2006, 03:34 PM
It appears quite curious to me that Richard has such a high price, having played zero games on clay. By the way, Chucho trades at 140:1.

Black Adam
05-15-2006, 03:41 PM
I don't get why Coria is still there on top with the real challengers.

Merton
05-15-2006, 03:45 PM
I don't get why Coria is still there on top with the real challengers.

He is not on top, it is only because there were people who bet on him back when there was still hope he would recover from his problems. Technically, there is still hope, but he is given less than a 1% probability to win. By the way, i recall that he came to RG as 2nd favourite last year.

Peoples
05-15-2006, 03:51 PM
By the way, i recall that he came to RG as 2nd favourite last year.
Not possible.

Merton
05-15-2006, 03:53 PM
Not possible.

Just a recollection, and i am too lazy to check right now.

Allstar
05-15-2006, 03:55 PM
Nah he was just behind Roger and Nadal I believe

ezekiel
05-15-2006, 04:00 PM
It is a good time to start a thread about the chances of the RG contenders as seen from the point of view of the betting markets. I am interested in the information that the betting odds present here, in the sense that they reveal what bettors think about the winner of RG. Right after Monte Carlo, the odds are as following: (Source: http://www.betfair.com/?rfr=63&mi=4652716)

Odds Probabilities
Nadal 2.28 0.439
Federer 3.4 0.294
Gaudio 26 0.038
Coria 30 0.033
Gasquet 34 0.029
Nalbandian 40 0.025
Safin 55 0.018
Ferrer 60 0.017
Ferrero 75 0.013

The probabilities are implied from the odds in the winner-take-all market, so they represent current probabilities of players winning RG outright.

Oh man :spit: :spit: :spit:

vogus
05-15-2006, 05:10 PM
Nalbo is a definite buy at 30:1.

what's Lubicic's price?

Jimnik
05-15-2006, 05:15 PM
This is a good time to update this thread, right after Rome. I will report the highest implied probabilities, all odds come from here: http://www.betfair.com/?rfr=63&mi=4652716

Nadal: 0.495
Federer: 0.323
Nalbandian: 0.033
Almagro: 0.017
Gasquet: 0.012

Both favourites have improved their odds, the biggest change has been the substantial drop in Coria's price, trading now at odds 140:1 and the increase in Almagro's price, trading now at 60:1. Safin has also fallen to 150:1
I'm surprised that Nadal is still less than 50%. Nalbandian and Almagro are no surprise. Gaquet is high because it's his home tournament but surely there's no hope now.

Freeze17171
05-15-2006, 05:27 PM
Almagro has definite value at 100:1, I'd rank him as a top 5 clay courter right now. Depending on his draw, he could do very well at RG.

Merton
05-15-2006, 05:45 PM
Nalbo is a definite buy at 30:1.

what's Lubicic's price?

Ljubicic is at 250:1.

Black Adam
05-15-2006, 05:51 PM
Kristoph Vilgien can be a surprise second weeker.....he has a solid return and can be the tourney surprise with almagro.

Merton
05-26-2006, 12:06 AM
Last update just before the draw is out. Again, i report implied probabilities based on the odds here http://www.betfair.com/?rfr=63&mi=4652716

Nadal: 0.495
Federer: 0.345
Nalbandian: 0.028
Almagro: 0.018

The only other players that carry a larger than 1% probability of winning are Robredo and Davydenko. (Both have odds 80:1)

Merton
04-29-2008, 03:25 AM
BUMP

I had forgotten about this thread, these are the odds of winning RG today, after Monte Carlo: http://sports.betfair.com/?CID=sp1&CID=1886166&PLA=77784235116606100

Nadal: 1.7:1
Federer: 6.8:1
Djokovic: 10:1
Nalbandian: 32:1
Davydenko: 42:1
Ferrer: 42:1

I follow this market since after the Australian Open, but transactions usually increase after Miami. The odds for Nadal before Monte Carlo were about 2:1 and the odds for Federer and Djokovic were roughly equal, around 7.5:1. After Monte Carlo, the odds for Nadal winning dropped to the level they were for him winning Monte Carlo outright, just before the event. The odds for Federer and Djokovic moved, following their semifinal result.

Note that to convert odds to probabilities just invert the numbers given, for example the implied probability of Djokovic winning the French Open is 1/10=10%.

Jimnik
04-29-2008, 04:00 AM
Nadal's odds are still quite long. Unfotunately that's the only value I see here.

bad gambler
04-29-2008, 04:18 AM
The concept of what is "value" is in the eye of the beholder however would tend to agree with Jimnik.

Merton
04-29-2008, 04:25 AM
If we view these claims as stocks, then I guess Nadal's stock would go up if he defends his titles in Barcelona and Rome. But then it might be a better strategy to invest on Nadal taking the Barcelona and Rome titles outright. bg is right, value is on the eye of the beholder. :shrug:

Merton
05-12-2008, 11:36 PM
Update after Rome:

Nadal: 1.73:1
Federer: 7.6:1
Djokovic: 8:1
Nalbandian: 60:1
Davydenko: 48:1
Ferrer: 48:1

There is not much change for Nadal and Federer. Djokovic' stock price has increased as expected, while the chances for Nalbandian, Davydenko and Ferrer have dropped.

Henry Chinaski
05-13-2008, 12:57 AM
1.73 in decimal odds isn't the same as 1.73/1 fractional odds. the 1.73 in decimal odds is the return for a 1 unit stake with the stake included. 0.73/1 in other words.
You probably know that but it's quite confusing the way you've written the odds.

Also for guys outside the top 3 the odds aren't a very accurate reflection of the market yet. The prices you quote are ones offered (available to back), the requested prices(the ones available to lay) are quite a bit higher (48 v 55 in Ferrer's case). The true odds will fall somewhere between the 2.

It's definitely interesting to follow. There has been at least one PhD these published arguing that betfair is a better predictor of election results than opinion polls are..

Merton
05-13-2008, 01:14 AM
1.73 in decimal odds isn't the same as 1.73/1 fractional odds. the 1.73 in decimal odds is the return for a 1 unit stake with the stake included. 0.73/1 in other words.
You probably know that but it's quite confusing the way you've written the odds.


You are right, but it is only a matter of convention, this way it is easier to find implied probabilities by inverting the presented odds, a point I made here:

Note that to convert odds to probabilities just invert the numbers given, for example the implied probability of Djokovic winning the French Open is 1/10=10%.

This thread has the purpose of conveying the information content of the prices, I guess the gambling forum is a more natural setting to discuss odd conventions, betting strategies and so on.

Also for guys outside the top 3 the odds aren't a very accurate reflection of the market yet. The prices you quote are ones offered (available to back), the requested prices(the ones available to lay) are quite a bit higher (48 v 55 in Ferrer's case). The true odds will fall somewhere between the 2.

An excellent point, the spread between prices offered and requested will drop for the other players once this market becomes more liquid. That should happen next week and even more so after the RG draw is made.

[/QUOTE]
It's definitely interesting to follow. There has been at least one PhD these published arguing that betfair is a better predictor of election results than opinion polls are.[/QUOTE]

These markets are definitely interesting to watch, the question there is how well market prices reflect aggregate information relative to information gothered by sampling, i.e. a poll.

Merton
05-19-2008, 09:11 PM
Update after Hamburg:

Nadal: 1.73:1
Federer: 6:1
Djokovic: 7.6:1
Nalbandian: 95:1
Davydenko: 55:1
Ferrer: 70:1

Minor changes for the odds of the top-3, the prices for Nalbandian, Davydenko and Ferrer went down. The volume of transactions should pick up significantly this week.

Henry Chinaski
05-19-2008, 10:45 PM
Surprising that Nadal's odds are the same as after Rome. I wouldn't have taken him then with injury doubts but I probably will now after seeing him take out his 2 biggest rivals at his least favoured clay event.

Merton
05-19-2008, 10:55 PM
Surprising that Nadal's odds are the same as after Rome. I wouldn't have taken him then with injury doubts but I probably will now after seeing him take out his 2 biggest rivals at his least favoured clay event.

The position of Djokovic in the draw will certainly affect Nadal's odds, what Monte Carlo and Hamburg tell us is that early surprises are not very likely. Therefore if Djokovic lands on Nadal's half I would expect these odds to go up to 2:1 and if Djokovic lands on Federer's half down to 1.5:1 or so.