AFL Round 4 [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

AFL Round 4

bossboss
04-18-2006, 02:59 AM
2.75 Cartlon- Hawthorn1.43
2.00 Bulldogs -geelong 1.77
1.25 Lions -Richmond 3.8
1.7 Freo - Adelaide 2.1
2.65 kangaroos - WC Eagles 1.45
1.55 Sydney- Melbourne 2.4
2.1 Port -St Kilda 1.7
1.5 collingwood-Essendon 2.5

Lines are not out yet ..will post some selections later

Mr Flamboyant
04-18-2006, 05:00 AM
As far as value goes, Carlton are a standout at $2.75 in what is a toss of the coin game.. Adelaide are probably worth a go too at $2.10 against an inferior opponent at fortress Subiaco.

Always reluctant to back teams away from home but StKilda at $1.70 looks solid given that they're a superior side to Port and in better form than Port.

Mr Flamboyant
04-18-2006, 05:03 AM
Could anyone in their right mind put money on Hawthorn at $1.45..? That'd have to be the sucker punt of the century ..

P.S. Depending on the extent of the Bulldogs' injuries, I'd say the price about Geelong is pretty good too given their likely level of anger after last saturday ..

hawker
04-18-2006, 01:10 PM
shortest we have seen the pies and hawks in a very long time.

both probably relying alot on the injuryna suspension of the other teams stgar full forwards Matty Lloyd and Brendan Fevola.

Note Essendon do seem to rise to the occasion against the Pies, great record in the past. Hawks also havent got the best record at the Dome so isnt impossibel for the blues to take it upto.

Note Port has a 8 game winning streak against the Saints and St Kilda really have trouble winning interstate. Are a far better team though.

Bolar Bolabi
04-19-2006, 01:25 AM
Shortest we've seen us for a long time.

We will flog Richmond - also the fact they played in Perth last week and now have to travel to Brisbane. Depending on what the line is, I'll be taking it.

St.Kilda are huge value against the hapless power. Tredrea will play for the Power but that won't be enough for them to win. Saints will flog them. I'm considering going to it just to see Port get flogged.

Bolar Bolabi
04-19-2006, 01:25 AM
Melbourne are also good value against Sydney. The line in that match might be the go in Melbourne's favour.

gahh
04-20-2006, 02:21 AM
Melbourne are massive value this week, along with Carlton. I'd have to check the sanity of anyone who would take Hawthorn at that price, I thought the betting would be even money. Carlton will miss Fev but Hawthorn will be on a downer after last week and expect to win it really. Teams put into an unfamiliar situation like that have a history of faltering. Fisher and Setanta will play for Carlton, with Kennedy a possibility. Bentick could miss though, but with Chambers out I'll be heavily leaning on Carlton, with extra at the line.

Melbourne just for value, I saw the Swans in person last week and honestly I spit on that team, what a disgrace to football they are. Hope anyone playing them beats them

sports freak
04-20-2006, 10:37 AM
Could anyone in their right mind put money on Hawthorn at $1.45..? That'd have to be the sucker punt of the century ..

P.S. Depending on the extent of the Bulldogs' injuries, I'd say the price about Geelong is pretty good too given their likely level of anger after last saturday ..

Hawks at 1.45 champ,mate dont miss out is the question,Hawks will make the Blues look SILLY,they should win quite comfortably imo and without the big Fev,the smile is getting wider by the minute,tempted on taking them 40+ aswell!!!!

sports freak
04-20-2006, 10:41 AM
Shortest we've seen us for a long time.

We will flog Richmond - also the fact they played in Perth last week and now have to travel to Brisbane. Depending on what the line is, I'll be taking it.

St.Kilda are huge value against the hapless power. Tredrea will play for the Power but that won't be enough for them to win. Saints will flog them. I'm considering going to it just to see Port get flogged.

Agree Lions will MAUL the Tigers,while Port will have it tough against the Saints!!

sports freak
04-20-2006, 10:44 AM
Melbourne are massive value this week, along with Carlton. I'd have to check the sanity of anyone who would take Hawthorn at that price, I thought the betting would be even money. Carlton will miss Fev but Hawthorn will be on a downer after last week and expect to win it really. Teams put into an unfamiliar situation like that have a history of faltering. Fisher and Setanta will play for Carlton, with Kennedy a possibility. Bentick could miss though, but with Chambers out I'll be heavily leaning on Carlton, with extra at the line.

Melbourne just for value, I saw the Swans in person last week and honestly I spit on that team, what a disgrace to football they are. Hope anyone playing them beats them

Agree on Demons,good value imo aswell!!maybe the 1-19 option either team could be a good shot,but Save your Money on the STINKIN BLUES mate,Hawks will run riot!!!!!

sports freak
04-20-2006, 10:47 AM
Also liking the Pies over Dons and Wst Coast over Roos big and small leans on Freo!!Western Bulldogsvs Geelong either team 1-19 ( see an absolute thriller)

hawker
04-20-2006, 01:47 PM
Heres some stats guys after 3 Rounds, they might not mean anything just yet but just tracking a few things anyway, take of them what you wish.

All units based on 1 unit a game


Trends
- Round 3 the Away team won 6-2 for +9.5 units
- Round 3 the Underdog won 6-2 ATS for +3.58 units
- Teams Travelling interstate are 7-8 for +1.91 units
- Underdog in lines over 20 has went 7-2 for +4.51 units


Heres a couple more im adding for teams coming back from interstate.

- Oppose Team coming back from an interstate game 6-4 for +4.35 units
- Oppose Team coming back from an interstate game off a win 3-1 for +3.56 units
- Oppose Team ATS coming back from an interstate game 7-3 +3.51 units

hawker
04-21-2006, 03:09 AM
Carlton vs. Hawthorn
Friday 21 Apr 2006 at Telstra Dome 7:40pm

At the start the year these 2 teams were the wooden spoons favourites, but since then there has been alot of teams looking like they can be contenders for that spot and Hawks and Carlton have both showed signs of a much improved year.

Hawks have had a great start to the year by having a convincing win over FREO round 1, competitive with Collingwood Round 2 until Rocca took over and then a massive win over Flag Favourites Geelong last week at Shell Stadium.

Carlton also opened up the season with a win Round 1 and then stayed in touch with Freo and Sydney in there games aswell.

Fev has been a important role in those games and should be massive loss for them this week, Jarrad Waite looks to be out aswell and it is hard seeing where the goals are going to come from for Carlton.

Hawks did come away with the victory against Carlton last time these 2 teams played by 24 points at the MCG with Willo kicking 5 in this match.

Hawks have struggled at the Dome in the past not winning their in there last 6 matches though I think with their ruckman Cambell and Spider tapping it down to their so dominant midfield of mitchell, bateman and hodge will be giving the hawks forwards alot more then carltons forwards (what forwards) are going to have at the other end.

1 unit Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.40


High Goalscorer Value
If you looking for any value in the High Goal scorer market you cant go past the Favourite here Mark Williams @ $2.60. Last 2 times these sides have met Williams top scored with 5 and 4. Fev is always a major factor against the hawks kicking a few bags and Waite is out aswell. If Willo can kick 4 here he should be right.


Most Disposals Value
Note players here include(Hodge, Mitchell, Crawf, Batemen, N Stevens, Houlihan, Murphy, Scotland)

Carlton have been very low in their disposal count each game this year so we can just about wipe there players out of the running in this one against a high possession hawthorn side. Nick Stevens has did good in the past against the Hawks with 26,26,24 last 3 times they have met but this year is only averaging 19 possies. For the hawks Mitchell and Hodge have once again been in outstanding form both averaging 28 disposals per game, Hodge does have the better record against Carlton though averaging 33pg in his last 2.

Value Bet here Luke Hodge $3.00

andrew057
04-21-2006, 05:56 AM
GREAT write up Hawker. Im going against you.

Carlton 1-39 @ $3.55 for me.

gahh
04-21-2006, 06:19 AM
Fev is always a major factor against the hawks kicking a few bags

Was a massive factor this time last year...

Carlton could get done, or they could win. It's not really a forward line issue, its a midfield issue. The game should be much closer odds wise.

I think Dylan McLaren is slight value at $35 to kick the most goals. Pagan just might throw him forward if he thinks similarly to me and he's a straight kick

sports freak
04-21-2006, 07:32 AM
Was a massive factor this time last year...

Carlton could get done, or they could win. It's not really a forward line issue, its a midfield issue. The game should be much closer odds wise.

I think Dylan McLaren is slight value at $35 to kick the most goals. Pagan just might throw him forward if he thinks similarly to me and he's a straight kick

Kouta is most likely lining up at full forward mate,therefor save your money on Dylan!!!Kouta is alot more value but Williams could go for a bag of 8 goals 2nite!!!!

sports freak
04-21-2006, 07:35 AM
Carlton vs. Hawthorn
Friday 21 Apr 2006 at Telstra Dome 7:40pm

At the start the year these 2 teams were the wooden spoons favourites, but since then there has been alot of teams looking like they can be contenders for that spot and Hawks and Carlton have both showed signs of a much improved year.

Hawks have had a great start to the year by having a convincing win over FREO round 1, competitive with Collingwood Round 2 until Rocca took over and then a massive win over Flag Favourites Geelong last week at Shell Stadium.

Carlton also opened up the season with a win Round 1 and then stayed in touch with Freo and Sydney in there games aswell.

Fev has been a important role in those games and should be massive loss for them this week, Jarrad Waite looks to be out aswell and it is hard seeing where the goals are going to come from for Carlton.

Hawks did come away with the victory against Carlton last time these 2 teams played by 24 points at the MCG with Willo kicking 5 in this match.

Hawks have struggled at the Dome in the past not winning their in there last 6 matches though I think with their ruckman Cambell and Spider tapping it down to their so dominant midfield of mitchell, bateman and hodge will be giving the hawks forwards alot more then carltons forwards (what forwards) are going to have at the other end.

1 unit Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.40


High Goalscorer Value
If you looking for any value in the High Goal scorer market you cant go past the Favourite here Mark Williams @ $2.60. Last 2 times these sides have met Williams top scored with 5 and 4. Fev is always a major factor against the hawks kicking a few bags and Waite is out aswell. If Willo can kick 4 here he should be right.


Most Disposals Value
Note players here include(Hodge, Mitchell, Crawf, Batemen, N Stevens, Houlihan, Murphy, Scotland)

Carlton have been very low in their disposal count each game this year so we can just about wipe there players out of the running in this one against a high possession hawthorn side. Nick Stevens has did good in the past against the Hawks with 26,26,24 last 3 times they have met but this year is only averaging 19 possies. For the hawks Mitchell and Hodge have once again been in outstanding form both averaging 28 disposals per game, Hodge does have the better record against Carlton though averaging 33pg in his last 2.

Value Bet here Luke Hodge $3.00

Agree mate with everyhing,only problem is Hawks can get up 40+ imo!!!Do like SHOT GUN to take out most goals n Hodgy most disposals but Mtichell is always a threat!!!

sports freak
04-21-2006, 07:45 AM
Looking for the Hawks to make the Blues look stupid 2nite!!!!

60 units on Hawthorn ML @ 1.43 over Carlton Stinkin Blues- Blues in for a huge shock imo!!!

20 units on Hawthorn - 16.5pts @ 1.91 over Carlton Blues - Hawks should win this one in a blowout!!

Good luck!!!Go The Hawks

andrew057
04-21-2006, 09:34 AM
Good to see you back SF. But unfortunately the Blues will be getting up tonight :D

hawker
04-21-2006, 10:16 AM
Agree mate with everyhing,only problem is Hawks can get up 40+ imo!!!Do like SHOT GUN to take out most goals n Hodgy most disposals but Mtichell is always a threat!!!

Thanks mate, I new i was going to take the hawks here no matter what and was just looking for the best value out of -16.5 line or taking them under 40. So I was trying to weigh up which is the one most likely to fail.

Carlton do have there forward line out but it was just the fact Hawthorns poor record at the Dome in the past was what made me take them under the 40 mark.

andrew057
04-21-2006, 09:46 PM
But unfortunately the Blues will be getting up tonight :D


:wavey: *hides*

Bolar Bolabi
04-22-2006, 12:27 AM
Brisbane - 24.5
St.Kilda - 6.5
Western Bulldogs ML

Good luck

sports freak
04-22-2006, 02:37 AM
Brisbane - 24.5
St.Kilda - 6.5
Western Bulldogs ML

Good luck

Good luck mate,love em all!!!!

sports freak
04-22-2006, 02:42 AM
Some nice games of footy on the weekend,harder to cap NRL this week imo!!!Strong leans so far n most liklely a few of them as plays!!!Top 3 are most likely plays!!!

1. Lions ML 1.35/West Coast ML 1.55
2.St Kilda ML 1.77
3.Collingwood 1.54
4.Freo 1.75
5.Western Bulldogs 1.92

sports freak
04-22-2006, 03:18 AM
Just read some info and like the Dockers even more,feel theyre a certainty 2nite against the Crows!!!Crows playin their 4 game interstate in 4 weeks!!!Dockers will run em ragged n take off in the 3rd n 4th quarters!!!!

Fremantle 1.75 over Crows
Lions 1.35/West Coast 1.55 (2morro) /Collingwood 1.54 (tuesday)
St Kilda 1.77 ( 2morro)

sports freak
04-22-2006, 03:30 AM
Looking forward to a good week in footy!!!

30 units on Brisbane Lions 1.35/Collingwood 1.54 @ 2.07 over Richmond/Essendon- Both teams should win comfortably imo!!!Could add Wst Coast 1.55 to make it 3.22 for a little risk!!!

30 units on Fremantle Dockers 1.75 over Adelaide Crows- Too much travelling for the Crows gonna run out of legs against the fast paced Dockers!!!

30 units on St Kilda 1.77 over Port Adelaide Power- Power's gonna get turned off while the Saints go marching on!!!

30 units on West Coast 1.55/North Queensland 1.39 @ 2.15 over Kangaroos/Cronulla - Both teams going opposite to their opponents!!!

Good luck!!!

bad gambler
04-22-2006, 03:43 AM
Geelong to beat the Bulldogs - $2.00

gl

hawker
04-22-2006, 05:06 AM
heres my preview dor todays game currently see saying match with geelogn a few points up.

Western Bulldogs vs. Geelong
Saturday 22 Apr 2006 at Telstra Dome 2:10pm

Bulldogs have come into this game slight favourites but the punters are chucking money at them now to neally make it PK em.

Bulldogs have a great record against geelong as underdogs winning 5 of their last 7 games vs Geelong with Geelong being the heavy favourites on most occasions so this is nothing new for the doggies. Last time dogs won by 35 points with Skipper kicking 5 and Scott West racking up 32 possies.

The Bulldogs have got of to a great start to the season winning all 3 of their opening matches and looking very comfortable at the Dome but Geelong is the toughest opposition they have had to face yet.

Geelong on the other hand dished out 2 floggings the opening 2 rounds to poor opposition then come back down to earth when Hawthorn provided them with a flogging of there own at Shell Stadium.

It looks to be an interesting matchup with alot of injuries in this game the dogs losing 2 big men last week so will be interesting to see hwo they go in the ruck. But geelong also have been hit with injuries throughout the year and to add to this their ruckman King and Full Foward Kingsley will be out for this match.

In the end I think Western will use their style of play well with nice wuick footy and utilise the Dome to the best like they have on their last 8 occasions there averaging 133 points a game at an average winning margin of 39 points. Geelong have also lost their last 3 there.

1 unit Western @ $2.02 (betfair)


Most Disposals Value
Note players here include(West, Cross, Cooney, Giansiracusa, Corey, Ling, Enright, Milburn)

Hard to go past neally the most consistent player in the League here Scott West, does it week in week out going in getting around the 30 possesion mark. Averaging 28 disposals a game this year and averages 31pg last 2 vs Geelong defiantely enought to make it worth a punt here.

Value Bet here Scott West $3.15

hawker
04-22-2006, 05:07 AM
Tonight also on

Fremantle 1-39 @ $2.40

bad gambler
04-22-2006, 08:04 AM
Geelong to beat the Bulldogs - $2.00

gl


could have gone either way, great game to watch though

bet lost

tt boy
04-22-2006, 11:46 AM
Lions get blown out by pitiful Richmond :eek: that was bad :(

sports freak
04-22-2006, 11:49 PM
Geez whats going on with Bolar's Lions r Cubs should i say,absolutely damn pathetic!!worst performance ive seen by any team in a couple of yrs!!!Talk about rebuilding!!!

Tempted in taking the Demons to win as there the only side that hasnt won a game yet,but in sayin so Swans are up n going slowly!!See this game being another thriller by less then 2 goals sepreating the winner form the loser!!!

Only decent bet is the Coasters who are riding hot atm,like those rampant doggies!!!

bad gambler
04-23-2006, 01:27 AM
Cousins is out today against the Roos?

Mr Flamboyant
04-23-2006, 01:40 AM
Correct .. Failed a fitness test on thursday .. suffering hamstring soreness. While that provides a bit of appeal about the Roos with 17.5 start, can they really be trusted on their recent form..?

bad gambler
04-23-2006, 01:45 AM
The Roos actually aren't that a bad side, very hard working group of players - playing in Melbourne it might be worth a few coins on them S/U

bad gambler
04-23-2006, 01:46 AM
Actually I better check that, are they playing in Melbourne or in Canberra?

Mr Flamboyant
04-23-2006, 01:52 AM
It's being played in Canberra .. Manuka Oval .. Agree big time on your assessment of the Roos, that's why their past two performances have been so puzzling

bad gambler
04-23-2006, 01:54 AM
hmm they tend to play well in Manuka especially

eagles under 39.5, roos +12.5, roos ML - which one will it be :p

Mr Flamboyant
04-23-2006, 02:03 AM
I've always considered the Eagles a little suspect away from Perth. Gee, all three of those plays you mention holds merit.

Tab Sportsbet has offered the Roos 17.5 start .. That line's been pounded in from $1.85 to $1.68 .. so clearly there's plenty liking the Roos' chances of being competitive.

Lebowski
04-23-2006, 03:47 AM
Grrrrrrrrrrrrr WEST COAST. Get it together.

Lebowski
04-23-2006, 03:56 AM
Roos kicking their ass.

Kangaroos 5.5.(35) G: Harding 2, Harvey, Firrito, Jones
West Coast 3.1.(19) G: Jones, Staker, Selwood

Lebowski
04-23-2006, 04:07 AM
Kangaroos 6.6 (42) Harding, Jones 2, Harvey, Firrito
West Coast 4.2 (26) R. Jones, Staker, Selwood, Hunter
(11 mins 2nd qtr)


Brutal. Clearly overlooked this squad.

bad gambler
04-23-2006, 04:09 AM
who gave you the tip mate?

Lebowski
04-23-2006, 04:20 AM
48-41 Halftime

Cmon West Coast

Lebowski
04-23-2006, 04:22 AM
Jimbo of course

bad gambler
04-23-2006, 04:24 AM
Jimbo of course


:help:

Mr Flamboyant
04-23-2006, 04:24 AM
Just been following the movement of the prices on the TAB Sportsbets website ..

Lebowski
04-23-2006, 04:28 AM
just need ml to pull through.

Lebowski
04-23-2006, 04:55 AM
Kangaroos got this one. This such a textbook game of any sport. Weaker team comes to town and surprises the home team. Home team gets it close but can never grab the lead.

bad gambler
04-23-2006, 05:00 AM
lol eagles aren't the home team in this game

Lebowski
04-23-2006, 05:04 AM
hooray. WC got the lead.

Lebowski
04-23-2006, 05:09 AM
58-66 WC

little more at ease

Lebowski
04-23-2006, 05:47 AM
71-95 West Coast

Whoohoo. Irish Car bomb for Jim

bad gambler
04-23-2006, 06:57 AM
good stuff lebs, jim can pull winners from his arse from time to time :yeah:

$@M
04-24-2006, 02:09 AM
Th Saints are hit by injury... does anyone else think the Powers may pull this one out, especially with Treadea back in the team??? :rolleyes:

Mr Flamboyant
04-24-2006, 02:19 AM
Yep .. the werewolf (Gherig) is out .. tough, tough game to pick .. can see another painfully low scoring contest on the cards here .. take either team at the under 39.5 and you'll collect IMO ..

Mr Flamboyant
04-24-2006, 02:40 AM
Might throw a few coins on "150 points or less" total @ $9 ..

bad gambler
04-24-2006, 04:50 AM
I'm actually like the home team here, especially since GTrain is out, and Harvey unlikely to play. Add to that Sainters record in Adelaide, it's horrendous and I still believe they are suspect outside Docklands

Port Adelaide to win - $2.05

gl

Mr Flamboyant
04-24-2006, 06:07 AM
On top of that, a mounting trend in NRL and AFL is for teams to hit back hard just when they appear to be staring down the barrell .. Look at Melbourne yesterday and Sydney the week before .. still liking the $9 (total under 151pts) though .. !!

$@M
04-24-2006, 06:31 AM
On top of that, a mounting trend in NRL and AFL is for teams to hit back hard just when they appear to be staring down the barrell .. Look at Melbourne yesterday and Sydney the week before .. still liking the $9 (total under 151pts) though .. !!

can't see it going that low... especially in great weather condition today...

Anyway, price continues to drop for the Saints... I might wait a bit closer before the kick-off to see whether the can grab any better value on Port.

Treadea is a huge factor... and to play against wounded Saints, there's no better come back game for him... He should be able to lift the team from the slump and win it ~ ;)

$@M
04-24-2006, 06:38 AM
Gonna take Port to win UNDER 39.5 @ 2.85 ... better value than the ML ... :D

$@M
04-24-2006, 10:27 AM
Good start by Port ... leading 38-26 after the first quarter...

$@M
04-24-2006, 10:55 AM
On top of that, a mounting trend in NRL and AFL is for teams to hit back hard just when they appear to be staring down the barrell .. Look at Melbourne yesterday and Sydney the week before .. still liking the $9 (total under 151pts) though .. !!

Both teams on fire with their scoring boots... unlucky, MF ...

SadrieL
04-24-2006, 12:24 PM
Port wins in a defensive struggle.

By which I mean, both teams struggled to defend at all.

Mr Flamboyant
04-24-2006, 12:30 PM
Hehe .. $@m, I heeded your advice and didn't even bother throwing a lazy 'tenner' on that >150pts prospect ..!! Think I'll just stick to NRL and Super 14 when it comes to predicting low scores!!

Great get by you in the end, Port under 39.5 .. well done!

bad gambler
04-24-2006, 12:35 PM
I'm actually like the home team here, especially since GTrain is out, and Harvey unlikely to play. Add to that Sainters record in Adelaide, it's horrendous and I still believe they are suspect outside Docklands

Port Adelaide to win - $2.05

gl


win

$@M
04-24-2006, 12:45 PM
Hehe .. $@m, I heeded your advice and didn't even bother throwing a lazy 'tenner' on that >150pts prospect ..!! Think I'll just stick to NRL and Super 14 when it comes to predicting low scores!!

Great get by you in the end, Port under 39.5 .. well done!
had a tenner on that one... but Andreev costed me 70 times that amount tonight... :sad:

Bolar Bolabi
04-26-2006, 01:20 AM
Geez whats going on with Bolar's Lions r Cubs should i say,absolutely damn pathetic!!worst performance ive seen by any team in a couple of yrs!!!Talk about rebuilding!!!



Our senior players are not interested in playing the game anymore and are not leading the team.

sports freak
04-26-2006, 02:52 AM
Our senior players are not interested in playing the game anymore and are not leading the team.

Agree definetely,i guess they have achieved what they wanted (3 premierships,4 grand finals in a row) not many will do that again,not for a long time!!!Only Johnathon Brown seems interested the rest are soft!!!!Eagles gonna give em a touch up form hell imo,a slaughter is on the menu sorry to say mate!!!

Bolar Bolabi
04-28-2006, 01:00 AM
Agree definetely,i guess they have achieved what they wanted (3 premierships,4 grand finals in a row) not many will do that again,not for a long time!!!Only Johnathon Brown seems interested the rest are soft!!!!Eagles gonna give em a touch up form hell imo,a slaughter is on the menu sorry to say mate!!!

You're right about the slaughter. How much is another story.

I still don't know why we don't fill our forward line with the following. Stack it with talls, kick it long down there.

HF: Jared Brennan, Jonathan Brown, Jason Akermanis
F: Ashley McGrath, Mitchell Clark, Daniel Merrett

sports freak
04-29-2006, 01:11 AM
You're right about the slaughter. How much is another story.

I still don't know why we don't fill our forward line with the following. Stack it with talls, kick it long down there.

HF: Jared Brennan, Jonathan Brown, Jason Akermanis
F: Ashley McGrath, Mitchell Clark, Daniel Merrett

Where's Daniel Bradshaw on the list???Also Bolar do you know whats going on with Justin Leppitsch???