Can the 'Sneaky Swine' be a contender at RG? [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Can the 'Sneaky Swine' be a contender at RG?

betterthanhenman
04-16-2006, 02:06 PM
Sneaky swine is not my term, but what Frew's co-commentator (sorry but they all sound the same) called him.

He has a genuinely big serve, with a second serve that kicks like the proverbial mule. He loads up with topspin on both sides, moves well and is aggressive in everything he does.

Oh, I'm talking about Safin's best buddy, Almagro by the way.

Action Jackson
04-16-2006, 02:15 PM
Just cause he beat Safin he is a contender for RG? If Henman beats Gaudio is he a contender for RG for example.

This is from Julio.

http://img75.imageshack.us/img75/8259/almagroleprechaun4ch.jpg

He can play the game, but it's too early to make these kinds of calls.

betterthanhenman
04-16-2006, 02:18 PM
Like the pic. Beating Safin and Ferrero (even now) is impressive. I am not suggesting he will win in Paris, but if he keeps this form going, then he has the game, energy and mentality to at least be in the second week I think.

Henman a contender at RG? I might make early predictions, but I have not been :drink: yet today.

Deivid23
04-16-2006, 02:21 PM
He should be some day, it´s soon though

Action Jackson
04-16-2006, 02:22 PM
Like the pic. Beating Safin and Ferrero (even now) is impressive. I am not suggesting he will win in Paris, but if he keeps this form going, then he has the game, energy and mentality to at least be in the second week I think.

If you are suggesting that he is a contender, then it stands to reason that you are suggesting he could win it.

It's not like Almagro has just come out of nowhere and he has been on the tour for 3 years.

Does he have the mentality? He can implode and self destruct very easily. There is a reason he is called the Poor Mans Gonzalez. He is spectacular, but as for being in the later rounds of a Slam this year, the jury is still out on that.

ClaycourtaZzZz.
04-16-2006, 02:23 PM
He could be dangerous for Rafa...:o

Deivid23
04-16-2006, 02:24 PM
. There is a reason he is called the Poor Mans Gonzalez.

Imo he deserves a better nick than that as it implies he has worse shots than Gonzo and for my taste he has at least as good shots as Chilean player overall

propi
04-16-2006, 02:26 PM
I can see him in the second week of Roland Garros this year if the draw is fine, but not winning, that could take longer :cool:

Action Jackson
04-16-2006, 02:27 PM
Imo he deserves a better nick than that as it implies he has worse shots than Gonzo and for my taste he has at least as good shots as Chilean player overall

Well I mean "Superstar" is almost about to go, because he is actually showing some of his talent, whereas before he was only a superstar in his own bathroom.

betterthanhenman
04-16-2006, 02:27 PM
If you are suggesting that he is a contender, then it stands to reason that you are suggesting he could win it.



I am asking the more knowledgeable members of the forum such as yourself if you believe he could be a threat there. In my opinion, the beauty of the Freanch is that there are always a number of players who can surprise people there and progress further than expected.

Deivid23
04-16-2006, 02:42 PM
Well I mean "Superstar" is almost about to go, because he is actually showing some of his talent, whereas before he was only a superstar in his own bathroom.

:lol:

Action Jackson
04-16-2006, 03:16 PM
I am asking the more knowledgeable members of the forum such as yourself if you believe he could be a threat there. In my opinion, the beauty of the Freanch is that there are always a number of players who can surprise people there and progress further than expected.

It's too early to make these calls, the clay season needs to pan a bit more before anything can be said with any clarity. It smacks of recency effect.

There are plenty of guys who can have fun and cause trouble for the big guys, Almagro might be and he might not, he could have problems, he is hot and cold.

Damita
04-16-2006, 03:23 PM
Well I mean "Superstar" is almost about to go, because he is actually showing some of his talent, whereas before he was only a superstar in his own bathroom.
:spit:

betterthanhenman
04-16-2006, 03:29 PM
It smacks of recency effect.



Am not comparing the two by any means, but people said that when it was suggested Nadal would win RG 2005, early in last year's clay court season.

It is a knee-jerk reaction possibly, but if he goes in 'hot' then he could cause anyone problems. Lots of young players come of age at the major tournaments and this could apply to Almagro. All I am saying is that he definitely has the game to do well there. From what I have seen of him this week, he will start rising to the big occasions.

At present, Almagro would not be in the 5 or even 10 favourites for RG. But Puerta made the final last year and in my opinion, did not have a vastly superior game to Almagro. Is Davydenko a better clay-courter than Almagro? I dont think so and he almost made the final himself. How many people thought Berasategui would make the final in '94? There are always surprises at RG and Almagro could be one of them this year.

Allez
04-16-2006, 03:35 PM
Am not comparing the two by any means, but people said that when it was suggested Nadal would win RG 2005, early in last year's clay court season.

It is a knee-jerk reaction possibly, but if he goes in 'hot' then he could cause anyone problems. Lots of young players come of age at the major tournaments and this could apply to Almagro. All I am saying is that he definitely has the game to do well there. From what I have seen of him this week, he will start rising to the big occasions.

At present, Almagro would not be in the 5 or even 10 favourites for RG. But Puerta made the final last year and in my opinion, did not have a vastly superior game to Almagro. Is Davydenko a better clay-courter than Almagro? I dont think so and he almost made the final himself. How many people thought Berasategui would make the final in '94? There are always surprises at RG and Almagro could be one of them this year.


And don't forget Henman getting so close to winning the title in 2004 :eek: :eek: :eek:

Action Jackson
04-16-2006, 03:39 PM
Am not comparing the two by any means, but people said that when it was suggested Nadal would win RG 2005, early in last year's clay court season.

Well there was a difference as Nadal was doing very good things in South America on clay and pushed Fed in Miami, but the only thing in common as it that they are from same country. Why bring it up then?

It is a knee-jerk reaction possibly, but if he goes in 'hot' then he could cause anyone problems. Lots of young players come of age at the major tournaments and this could apply to Almagro. All I am saying is that he definitely has the game to do well there. From what I have seen of him this week, he will start rising to the big occasions.

To me it's a knee-jerk reaction and that's a very common thing around MTF. As I said he has been around for a while and just has not come from the sky, but the other day I saw your call about Safin on clay and this seems to be going on in a similar vein.

At present, Almagro would not be in the 5 or even 10 favourites for RG. But Puerta made the final last year and in my opinion, did not have a vastly superior game to Almagro. Is Davydenko a better clay-courter than Almagro? I dont think so and he almost made the final himself. How many people thought Berasategui would make the final in '94? There are always surprises at RG and Almagro could be one of them this year.

What just cause Almagro is spectacular doesn't mean jack and have a better game. Puerta could run all day when he was bothered and was very aggressive in his game and the draws are very important things and along with PMK they play different games. You are not comparing like for like at all, so that leaves the comparison very flawed.

Ok, since you want to play that game. Agassi had better RG results than Muster did in his career. Does this mean Agassi was a better player on clay overall?

If you want to toot the Almagro RG bandwagon, be my guest. There are plenty of players that can do something, and there are others who might fail.

Action Jackson
04-16-2006, 03:40 PM
And don't forget Henman getting so close to winning the title in 2004 :eek: :eek: :eek:

Was he? Then you again you think Ginepri losing on clay is a surprise, so next please. :)

Did Henman have match points in this match? He didn't, if he has match points, then there is a case for that, but he didn't.

Allez
04-16-2006, 03:43 PM
Was he? Then you again you think Ginepri losing on clay is a surprise, so next please. :)

Did Henman have match points in this match? He didn't, if he has match points, then there is a case for that, but he didn't.

Sarcasm Adolf. Sarcasm. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

betterthanhenman
04-16-2006, 03:55 PM
I stand by what I said about Safin's potential on clay. In truth, Safin had Almagro beat and should have won this tournament, but he didn't so that's the end of that matter.

The fact that Almagro has been around for a few years doesn't enter into the equation as to how he will do this year; he is still young and i hope still improving every year. Personally I like Almagro's game and hope he continues to play well over the next 6 weeks. If he doesn't and fails miserably then so be it.

Just looking at potential dark horses at RG...
Ferrero
Coria
Gaudio
Safin
Nalbandian
Chela
Gasquet
Gonzalez
Moya
Acasuso

That list highlights that beyond the top two, the draw is wide open. Ferrero and Coria have been shocking by their standards and it's hard to back Safin, Nalbandian, Moya, Gasquet, Gaudio or Gonzalez, given their unpredictability. Looking at the above players, I dont think it is too soon to suggest Almagro as an outsider.

And again, I may be massively wrong, but I've been wrong before and will be again. My opinion may not be along the same lines as yours, but it is not completely without rationale. :)

Action Jackson
04-16-2006, 04:05 PM
I stand by what I said about Safin's potential on clay. In truth, Safin had Almagro beat and should have won this tournament, but he didn't so that's the end of that matter.

Anyone with sound reasoning knows that Safin can play well on all surfaces except grass, but that is as common as rain in England, but preclaiming him like he is some messiah is funny.

The fact that Almagro has been around for a few years doesn't enter into the equation as to how he will do this year; he is still young and i hope still improving every year. Personally I like Almagro's game and hope he continues to play well over the next 6 weeks. If he doesn't and fails miserably then so be it.

The way you talk about Almagro, he is the greatest thing ever to happen in tennis. He has been around for a few years, he is very talented and has showed glimpses of what he is capable of. He has got a bit more consistent, still got a lot to prove.

Just looking at potential dark horses at RG...
Ferrero
Coria
Gaudio
Safin
Nalbandian
Chela
Gasquet
Gonzalez
Moya
Acasuso

That list highlights that beyond the top two, the draw is wide open. Ferrero and Coria have been shocking by their standards and it's hard to back Safin, Nalbandian, Moya, Gasquet, Gaudio or Gonzalez, given their unpredictability. Looking at the above players, I dont think it is too soon to suggest Almagro as an outsider.

And again, I may be massively wrong, but I've been wrong before and will be again. My opinion may not be along the same lines as yours, but it is not completely without rationale. :)

How is Coria a darkhorse? Come on a darkhorse isn't someone who is going to be in the top 4 or 5 of favoured players come on you can do better than that.

Gasquet doesn't have the stamina for one and neither does Acasuso, but at least they are darkhorses in a reasonable context and the French searching for a hero aren't going to have him as a darkhorse are they?

You can base all this one claycourt tournament played before any of the major ones, that is very impressive and yes that is an example of the recency effect.

betterthanhenman
04-16-2006, 04:09 PM
At present, I honestly believe that anyone apart from Roger and Rafa is a big outsider. Coria will be luckyto make the second week unless there is a drastic change in his game. The same can be said for Ferrero. Nalbandian will do well until he inexplicably capitulates. Gaudio will look good until he leaves his head in the dressing room. Moya will lose unexpectedly as he usually does. Acasuso, Gasquet and Gonzalez, well I wont even try to predict them.

Oh...I never suggested Almagro was going to win anything. Check the title of the thread...it's a question as to whether he will be a 'contender' this year.

With Safin I said 'potentially.' My main point with Safin was that above more consistent clay-courters, I believe he can give Nadal more problems than possibly anyone else.

Action Jackson
04-16-2006, 04:13 PM
At present, I honestly believe that anyone apart from Roger and Rafa is a big outsider. Coria will be luckyto make the second week unless there is a drastic change in his game. The same can be said for Ferrero. Nalbandian will do well until he inexplicably capitulates. Gaudio will look good until he leaves his head in the dressing room. Moya will lose unexpectedly as he usually does. Acasuso, Gasquet and Gonzalez, well I wont even try to predict them.

Oh...I never suggested Almagro was going to win anything. Check the title of the thread...it's a question as to whether he will be a 'contender' this year.

As for contender Nadal, Coria, Federer are contenders at RG, the others are possible chances to do well, there is a clear distinction, though you might not see it that way.

There is lots of time before now and then. Nadal and Federer are not supermen and they can be beaten, it's not just going to be between them, but saying Almagro is a possible contender is too much too soon.

Safin has struggled against a lot of players on clay, he'd have to win enough matches to get there. Wait till it happens or are we going to get endless speculation.

betterthanhenman
04-16-2006, 04:14 PM
As for contender Nadal, Coria, Federer are contenders at RG, the others are possible chances to do well, there is a clear distinction, though you might not see it that way.

There is lots of time before now and then. Nadal and Federer are not supermen and they can be beaten, it's not just going to be between them, but saying Almagro is a possible contender is too much too soon.

You may be 100% right...

*Ljubica*
04-16-2006, 04:22 PM
Almagro didn't play so well in that match - Simon was just appaling and made far too many unforced errors that gave Almagro the chances he needed - especially in the 1st set. I think he must have just been nervous and over-awed by the occasion, which was a shame for him and for the people who had paid money to watch the match. As for Almagro doing well at RG - well he has a solid clay court game and he will win a few rounds I'm sure - but not a real contender in my opinion - not when there are people like Nadal, Gaudio, etc about. Give him a couple of years to mature and calm down a bit and get rid of the rough edges in his game and he could well be then.

betterthanhenman
04-16-2006, 04:30 PM
GWH: You ever made any rash or foolish predictions?

Action Jackson
04-16-2006, 04:33 PM
GWH: You ever made any rash or foolish predictions?

Well if I hadn't, then I'd be called that mythical being known as God. At least I don't go around making calls like this on such a whim.

MariaV
04-16-2006, 04:33 PM
Well I mean "Superstar" is almost about to go, because he is actually showing some of his talent, whereas before he was only a superstar in his own bathroom.
a superstar in his own bathroom :haha: :rolls: :haha: :rolls: :haha: :rolls:

ClaycourtaZzZz.
04-16-2006, 04:35 PM
:lol: Nice could do some damage if he keeps constant.

betterthanhenman
04-16-2006, 04:38 PM
Well if I hadn't, then I'd be called that mythical being known as God. At least I don't go around making calls like this on such a whim.

You will have to point out what call I made in this thread. The one where I said he isn't yet in the top 10 favourites for the French? Or maybe the call where I asked if he could (emphasis on could) be a contender?

And even if I have suggested him being a threat prematurely, so what? Isn't speculate part of what people do here. If we are only going to report facts or suggest things with an undisputed evidence base, then it will become quite boring.

Action Jackson
04-16-2006, 04:48 PM
You will have to point out what call I made in this thread. The one where I said he isn't yet in the top 10 favourites for the French? Or maybe the call where I asked if he could (emphasis on could) be a contender?

Since I gave a definition already about contenders and dark horses, it's already there. Almagro doesn't fit the term contender, as I said you possibly see the term differently. Half those guys you mentioned wouldb't be in the top 10 of faves, but that's your list.

And even if I have suggested him being a threat prematurely, so what? Isn't speculate part of what people do here. If we are only going to report facts or suggest things with an undisputed evidence base, then it will become quite boring.

Look Almagro wins a tournament, bang this thread comes up a few minutes later. A true knee-jerk reaction, this would be like saying after Horna won Acapulco, he is a chance to do some serious damage and be a contender for RG.

There is always a certain amount of speculation in anything, but I think you should do it after every tournament not won by a repeat winner up to RG for consistency. :)

betterthanhenman
04-16-2006, 04:52 PM
Since I gave a definition already about contenders and dark horses, it's already there. Almagro doesn't fit the term contender, as I said you possibly see the term differently. Half those guys you mentioned wouldb't be in the top 10 of faves, but that's your list.



Look Almagro wins a tournament, bang this thread comes up a few minutes later. A true knee-jerk reaction, this would be like saying after Horna won Acapulco, he is a chance to do some serious damage and be a contender for RG.

There is always a certain amount of speculation in anything, but I think you should do it after every tournament not won by a repeat winner up to RG for consistency. :)

Thread actually came up before he had won the tournament :p Horna is an example of someone who should be threatening significantly more than he does. I would keep doing it, but from here on I think the major tournaments will be shared between Federer and Nadal. If that proves to be the case, then such threads may not be appropriate. But point taken.

NYCtennisfan
04-16-2006, 07:20 PM
It's way too early for him to actually win RG, but I can see him pulling off some more upsets. I don't think any top player relishes the idea of playing this guy early.

Merton
04-16-2006, 07:31 PM
There are favourites for RG, legitimate contenders and players that can cause upsets on any given day upon the favourites and the legitimate contenders. Almagro belongs in the third category for the moment but he has the potential to become a serious contender in the future.

Last year he won in straight sets against Safin in Rome and lost in straights to Roger, reaching only one tiebreak. He was too inconsistent to threaten Roger at the time, so the fact that he just won his first title does not imply he is a contender. Those are the players who have performed successfuly in the past and showed they could win the whole thing. Coria, Gaudio, Ferrero, Davydenko, Nalbandian, Safin have all reached at least the semis in the past and have other good results on clay.

NYCtennisfan
04-16-2006, 07:35 PM
There are favourites for RG, legitimate contenders and players that can cause upsets on any given day upon the favourites and the legitimate contenders. Almagro belongs in the third category for the moment but he has the potential to become a serious contender in the future.

Last year he won in straight sets against Safin in Rome and lost in straights to Roger, reaching only one tiebreak. He was too inconsistent to threaten Roger at the time, so the fact that he just won his first title does not imply he is a contender. Those are the players who have performed successfuly in the past and showed they could win the whole thing. Coria, Gaudio, Ferrero, Davydenko, Nalbandian, Safin have all reached at least the semis in the past and have other good results on clay.

Sums it up nicely.

betterthanhenman
04-16-2006, 08:46 PM
There is always a certain amount of speculation in anything, but I think you should do it after every tournament not won by a repeat winner up to RG for consistency. :)

Amended the title for your amusement :)

propi
04-16-2006, 09:39 PM
I would never think about Ferrero as a dark horse for Roland Garros, he'd be always a favourite. :confused:
Dark horse could be the likes as Volandri or Robredo :p

betterthanhenman
04-16-2006, 09:40 PM
I would never think about Ferrero as a dark horse for Roland Garros, he'd be always a favourite. :confused:
Dark horse could be the likes as Volandri or Robredo :p

Pains me to say it, but we need to recognise where his game is at right now.

propi
04-16-2006, 09:47 PM
Pains me to say it, but we need to recognise where his game is at right now.
Well, Roland Garros is a special tournament for Juanqui... check past results ;) he will do fine... can easily reach second week effortlessly if that's a word :p

betterthanhenman
04-16-2006, 09:48 PM
Well, Roland Garros is a special tournament for Juanqui... check past results ;) he will do fine... can easily reach second week effortlessly if that's a word :p

I know his past results. But unless he picks it up in the upcoming tournaments (and I hope he does), he wont make the second week.

stebs
04-16-2006, 10:35 PM
I don't really think he is a contender if I'm honest.

He is one of a great many youngsters who have talent but for me he is not one of the young guns so talented that you can really say he can beat anyone on his day. He can't he isn't that good. He could cause an upset if a big name plays badly or if he plays against someone who it would be considered an upset to defeat purely because of ranking like Roddick.

If I had to make some categories it would be these:

The top two: Obviously everyone knows who these guys are.

The contenders:The guys who would be favourites if the top two didn't exist. Coria, Gaudio, Ferrero, Nalbandian etc...

The high-ranked: Considered contenders by some media who have a small amount of knowledge of the game. Players like Roddick, Ljubicic etc...

The big gun killers: Capable of defeating anyone but not likely to win it. Gasquet, Acasuso, Moya. Personally I would also put Safin in here, he had a very long injury and I don't think he will be able to play all that tennis on clay.

The good players: Guys who are good but not great, could take out a big player if the big player was having a bad day and if given a good draw could use it. This is where I would put Almagro.

Action Jackson
04-17-2006, 04:30 AM
Amended the title for your amusement :)

It was amusing too.

betterthanhenman
05-12-2006, 03:32 PM
Levels at 1 set all against Federer. Looking like a potential contender. :p

betterthanhenman
05-12-2006, 04:14 PM
5-5. Vamos Nico...great heart!!

betterthanhenman
05-14-2006, 06:43 PM
http://www.stanjames.com/betting/?gi=29

Looks like the bookies don't think Almagro being a contender at RG is so ridiculous. Joint third favourite for the title they think.

betterthanhenman
05-14-2006, 06:46 PM
As for contender Nadal, Coria, Federer are contenders at RG, the others are possible chances to do well, there is a clear distinction, though you might not see it that way.

There is lots of time before now and then. Nadal and Federer are not supermen and they can be beaten, it's not just going to be between them, but saying Almagro is a possible contender is too much too soon.



Maybe you need to tell that to all the other players on tour.

betterthanhenman
06-07-2006, 11:24 AM
Nalbandian is now the only man who can prevent another Nadal-Federer final.

If he doesn't, then no other player will have beaten Federer or Nadal, throughout the clay season to date.

The rest of the tour needs to up their game!

RonE
06-10-2006, 08:30 AM
*BUMP*

The "sneaky swine" is heavily favoured to win on Sunday :p