(NRL,AFL,Super 14) Wet Weather Unders Plays [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

(NRL,AFL,Super 14) Wet Weather Unders Plays

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The Gucci one
04-15-2006, 01:24 AM
During the season occassionally wet weather makes an unders play very attractive in any of the football codes. Thought I might post a thread where any of us can post these plays as the opportunities arise. Out of the footy codes I follow the NRL very closely and will post any prospective plays when conducive situation arrives. Hopefully others can do the same in this thread.

:wavey:

Mr Flamboyant
04-15-2006, 02:07 AM
Did a little research the other day and of the 36 matches played this season (including last night's), 23 have finished 'under' 47.5 total points, with 13 'over'..

As far as this round is concerned, last night's match was an obvious candidate for an unders play, and subsequently finished with just 30 points scored. The Canberra - Warriors contest surely shapes as a low scoring game given both teams' lack of attack. Seven of the ten games they've played between them this season have finished 'under' this season too.

As far as the Super 14 is concerned, I'm convinced the Reds v Bulls match will be tediously low scoring, as will the Warratahs v Brumbies. In both these games you've got two teams that'll match up tightly on each other and in rugby that's more often than not a recipie for a low scoring game.

Mr Flamboyant
04-15-2006, 06:58 AM
One unders play tonight .. Canberra v Warriors under 46.5 @ $1.80

The Gucci one
04-15-2006, 08:36 AM
Yep Mr Flamboyant I just heard there is a fair possibility of rain for that game as it is clouding over in Canberra. Anyway I'm on board under 45.5 at $1.90.

Canberra average 22.40 points per game
Warriors average 18.00 points per game

Even if it doesn't end up raining unders is a fair chance.

Mr Flamboyant
04-15-2006, 09:03 AM
Canberra are a pretty conservative side, while the Warriors tend to bomb a lot of chances.. all in all it looks like a grind in Canberra tonight. Like you say, regardless if there's rain, the night conditions are conducive to a bit of dropped ball too. Think this looks the best play of the night

The Gucci one
04-15-2006, 10:48 AM
0 - 0 after 12 minutes

The Gucci one
04-15-2006, 10:56 AM
Warriors 2 - 0 after 20 minutes

The Gucci one
04-15-2006, 11:20 AM
Warriors 6 - 0 halftime

The Gucci one
04-15-2006, 12:28 PM
GSM Canberra 18 Warriors 14

andrew057
04-15-2006, 07:44 PM
Great thread and great work Flameboyant and Gucci one, keep up the good work.

The Gucci one
04-15-2006, 10:40 PM
Will do so mate.This didn't end up being a wet match but it was a scrappy affair and a winner for us. I don't think any of the games in NSW today(I live on the Gold Coast) will be wet as the forcast is for a sunny day but I have heard of a chance of rain tommorrow for the Bulldogs/Rabbits game.

Mr Flamboyant
04-16-2006, 02:09 AM
Phhhew .. Dodged some major bullets last night results wise by sticking purely to an unders play .. Took the Reds - Bulls under 46.5 X the Canberra - Warriors game under 46.5 @ $3.33 .. great stuff ..

Some may view playing totals unders/overs as a bit of a lottery but, as I may have mentioned higher up, I reckon it's quite a solid way to play if you're selective about the games you pick.

22 of the 35 NRL games heading into this round had finished 'under' 47.5 total points (the general mark that's set by bookies, give or take a point) and this weekend it's 2 & 2 ..

Mr Flamboyant
04-16-2006, 04:55 AM
Gucci .. I've been eyeing the Tahs - Brumbies game all week as definite candidate for under the total (set at 47.5) .. Feel the hosts will try to grind away through the forwards and with so much at stake, it could be akin to a soccer match in terms of tries scored. They've also had a history of low scoring games .. Thoughts??

The Gucci one
04-16-2006, 05:39 AM
Wouldn't have a clue mate I find most Rugby games a bit of a yawn, but good luck if you go ahead with it.

Mr Flamboyant
04-21-2006, 02:28 AM
Few totals worth considering this weekend .. certainly tonight's Reds - Stormers Super 14 match is all but certain to be yet another dour slog with points at a premium. No total has been posted yet, but anything over 44.5 is fair game IMO.

Statistics suggest the Warriors - Souths NRL game should be a low scoring one too between the current masters of missed opportunities. But any game where souths are involved is risky from a betting point of view IMO, and if either one of these two doesn't show up, a blowout scoreline could be on the cards .. bit too risky

Any game involving the Broncos these days appeals, and their clash with Penrith is no exception. Brisbane has gone 'under' in every match it's played this season, and given that these two teams play fairly similar styles it'll likely be tough and tight.

The Roosters attacking woes may make monday's match appealing too .. These Anzac day games are traditionally hard fought. 46.5 is the total.

Tonight's Eels Tigers clash could be dour too, given the Eels desperation and all but the entire heart of the Tigers attack now sitting on the sidelines through injuries.

The Gucci one
04-21-2006, 04:24 AM
Also could be wet on Anzac Day so the Roosters v Saints unders might be a play.

St.George ave 21.50 per game and 23.50 against
Roosters ave 28.33 per game and 23.66 against

Considering the players my Roosters have out and the motivation for a highly physical game due to ANZAC day celebrations pre game. If it is wet as forcast this will be an ideal wet weather unders play. I'll keep monitoring the forcast before deciding to pull the trigger.

The Gucci one
04-21-2006, 04:44 AM
Also now hearing a possible late change in Sydney this evening Parra v Tiges unders is now also a distinct possible goer. I'll keep you updated on the situation.

The Gucci one
04-21-2006, 06:17 AM
The Southerly change with showers is predicted to hit Sydney between 6pm and 8pm. As the line has not moved from 45.5 at $1.90 I'll hold fire for a bit longer

The Gucci one
04-21-2006, 07:00 AM
Okay I have taken Reds v Stormers under 45.5. I live on the Gold Coast about 40 minutes south of Brisbane. From the south we are about to be hit by a massive storm in the next half hour so much so that I will probably have to disconnect my internet connection soon to avert possible modem damage.See link below also

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20038.html

I have also placed the Parra v Tiges under 45.5 as wet weather is also likely and Parra average 14 points per game to the Tigers 21.66.

BOL

The Gucci one
04-21-2006, 07:10 AM
The above weather warning for the Gold Coast has just been cancelled and there is now more sun than clouds as I sit here looking out the window. But as I type it has just started to rain while some parts of the sky are blue.

Mr Flamboyant
04-21-2006, 07:11 AM
Love your work Gucci .. (I'm envious just quietly .. miss my old stomping ground down there on the coast!!) mate the scrooges at TAB Sportsbet haven't put a points total up for that stormers - reds match yet, but if 45.5 is the mark, then that's awesome, I'm on it .. think I'll also have a bit "each way" on the reds 1-12 and the stormers 1-12 .. it's sure to be dour, tight and low scoring .. AGAIN!

Will keep an eye on the situation in sydney too, although if and when they post this points total for the reds game, that and the "each way" play will do me for tonight.

The Gucci one
04-21-2006, 07:16 AM
I got the 45.5 for reds v stormers at Sportingbet.com.au

Mr Flamboyant
04-21-2006, 07:21 AM
Hold the phone Gucci, the totals are out and they've set it 54.5 for the Chiefs vs Cheetahs match .. Geez I tell ya what neither side is prolific in that department, the chiefs aren't in vintage form and against a bunch of plodders like the Cheetahs I don't know about that ..

Anyway, the Reds Stormers looks a gift at 46.5 anyway, so that's probably the play for me .. out of interest, the Force - Crusaders is 55.5 .. a couple too many if's about that though .. Force won't contribute too many towards that but if the Crusaders come switched on they could pass it themselves, or if they opt to just do enough (they have a tough trip to south africa on the horizon) it could slip under ..

The Gucci one
04-21-2006, 07:30 AM
Thanks for the tip but I only like to play when the weather gives me an edge. Pulled the trigger early because I thought we were going to get a severe storm here and that I might not be able to get on either play later. Anyway good luck hopefully all our bets hit mate.

Anders
04-21-2006, 07:35 AM
Mr Flam - just a note for ya, weather conditions perfect for the Chiefs/Cheetahs game, mild/cool, no real wind, no rain...

Mr Flamboyant
04-21-2006, 07:38 AM
Yeah tah, I'll stick with the reds game .. only like making one play at a time ..

Mr Flamboyant
04-23-2006, 03:25 AM
Leaning on an 'unders' in the Brisbane vs Penrith match today. All six games the Broncos have been involved in this season have slipped under the total. Bit unsure though given their opposition is Penrith. Total is set at 46.5 and I've got a feeling it'll be pretty spot on.

The Gucci one
04-23-2006, 04:45 AM
Bit risky if you ask me mate Brisbane at home have scored 30 v Souths, 30 v Parra & 4 v N.Qld. Penrith also ave 23.8 per game all away from home and is a bright sunny day on GC and Brisbane.

Mr Flamboyant
04-24-2006, 03:13 AM
Mate, looking at ppg averages is a bit misleading IMO .. I'd prefer to observe each team's record as far as unders and overs is concerned .. Do they tend to get engaged in try-fests or are they tighter .. Yesterday's game between Penrith and the Broncos, well, as far as I'm concerned while the Broncs play the type of football they're playing at the moment, every single match is fair game for an 'unders' play.

They're methodical in attack and they defending well. Their games tend not to get out of hand, with exchanges of tries ect. Kicking myself after not taking a play on them yesterday.

Anyway, overs plays might have to start figuring in the thinking now too because teams are starting to find their form offensively. A more even spread this week with three 'unders' and three 'overs'.

Another one I'm going to test out is (what I've dubbed) a bit of points 'zone' play. ie having a bit in the total game points 41-50 and 51-60 ranges .. these generally pay about $3.20 (41-50) and $3.50-$3.70 (51-60) .. and all bar the Brisbane game has ended in this points range. If you grab a copy of Big League magazine they have a stats page where all the percentages are for this sort of stuff .. this season the 41-50 range is about 55% (last time I checked) with the 51-60 the next most common on about 18% or so ..

Anything with a 70% + strike rate is worth playing .. Obviously you could pick your poison so to speak as far as matchups go .. for instance with the likes of Brisbane you could take the 31-40 and 41-50 ranges .. anyway, I might test it out in tomorrow's game between the Roosters and Saints ..

bad gambler
04-25-2006, 03:50 AM
I live about 10min from the SFS and their are very dark clouds rolling in, looks very threatening for a downpour - Dragons v Roosters kick off is still 2 hours away

Mr Flamboyant
04-25-2006, 04:24 AM
Hmmm..already taken the Dragons X Collingwood .. if the heavens open, keep us in the loop..!

The Gucci one
04-25-2006, 05:54 AM
Thanks BG for the info looks like the weather is now clearing. A few days ago I was considering unders with rain forcast but as it is my team playing and the weather is not to bad I'm hopefully just going to enjoy watching a Roosters win.

The Gucci one
04-27-2006, 09:12 AM
Couldn't believe the total posted for the Parra v Manly at the SCG this Sunday. Considering it supposed to be a wet weekend in Sydney I jumped on Under 48 points for this match.

Manly average 23.71 points scored per game
Parra average 17.00 points scored per game

Manly average 19.28 points against
Parra average 25.83 points against

I must be missing something here as unders looks pretty good even if it is dry conditions.

$@M
04-27-2006, 09:27 AM
you can actually get under/over 49.5 in that Manly vs Parramatta game @ SportsTAB.

that's an extra point and a half :cool: I'll take the UNDER as well...

plus, saw the weather forecast that there's a good chance it'll rain on Sunday ~!

Mr Flamboyant
04-27-2006, 09:32 AM
Thought the same thing about the same game Gucci.. Line from TAB Sportsbet is an even more generous 49.5 points (not that the extra point is likely to factor). Parramatta should defend far better than the Bulldogs last Sunday, keeping things pretty honest in the scoring department.

I think the 46.5 for the Broncos - Canberra game is a gift. Two very methodical teams going head to head, this game shouldn't get out of control from a scoring point of view. Both sides, as usual, will have to work hard for their tries on saturday night.

If there's rain likely in Sydney this weekend though I guess any and every match is fair game for an unders punt. We'll just wait and see what the heavens hold!

The Gucci one
04-27-2006, 09:48 AM
I predict a Manly victory by 24 - 10 both teams will be highly motivated so no chance of a blow out in scores either way. Brisbane v Canberra should unders but I,m a bit concerned with the Raiders defence.

Mr Flamboyant
04-27-2006, 09:59 AM
I've got a feeling the Raiders could give the Broncos a tough game, as they did last at Suncorp last season. Even if Brisbane do run away with it, I think the final score would be akin to last sunday's (30-6). Brisbane just isn't the sort of side that racks up big scorelines at the moment. I love them to death, but they do have to work hard for their points regardless of the opposition. Meantime their defense is pretty solid at the moment too, so they shouldn't allow the Raiders (arguably the easiest side in the NRL to defend against) too much leeway.

Anyway, we'll see. I like to leave these sorts of plays right up until the last minute just to get a final feel for the game and get an idea of the conditions any last minute ins and outs ect.

Mr Flamboyant
04-27-2006, 10:16 AM
If wet weather is a pre-requisite, then tomorrow's Warratahs v Highlanders clash shapes as a doozy for an unders punt. The 'Tahs couldn't even land in Otago because of near cyclonic conditions and looking at some vision of the team training today, it's a quagmire. Interesting to see what total they post for this one.

bad gambler
04-27-2006, 10:19 AM
There are doubts that the Tahs-Highlanders game is even going to be played - the conditions like you said are quite horrendous

Mr Flamboyant
04-27-2006, 10:26 AM
Yeah well they outlaw shoulder charges in this code so nothing would surprise me!!

Finns4
04-28-2006, 04:35 AM
Tahs V Highlanders line 43.5

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 04:39 AM
Hmmmm .. Is that on TAB Sportsbet..? anyone got the lowdown on what the conditions are like over there??

Finns4
04-28-2006, 04:41 AM
Nah Sportingbet.com.au but Tab will no doubt be the same or 1 point ether way

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 04:52 AM
If conditions are as heavy as the weather apparently has threatened to make them I still think 43 - 44 points is worth taking.

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 05:01 AM
Dunedin http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/93891.html

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 05:16 AM
Hmmm .. current temp of 14 degrees yet humidity is 74% .. me thinks rain must be around!

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 05:27 AM
Dunedin live webcams

http://www.cityofdunedin.com/city/?page=today_webcams

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 05:47 AM
TAB Sportsbet total set at 45.5 pts U/O ..

Finns4
04-28-2006, 05:49 AM
Wats everyone doin then? 45.5 looks really good imo, any1 got more news on the weather

those camera shots dont make it look 2 bad weather wise :rolleyes:

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 05:51 AM
I guess a camera at the ground itself would be handy ! doesn't look like too much rain's about, depends on the state of the ground after the rain it's had.

If it's heavy it should lend itself to the Highlanders to keeping things closer ..

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 05:54 AM
Personally think the 45.5 has been set without taking any bad weather into account. Yeah it looks worth a play .. Might fish around for any news stories on the web that mention the likely state of the ground and conditions ect ..

Finns4
04-28-2006, 05:56 AM
Yeh im wit u on that, im likin 45.5 but i wanna get it @ 1.85 so ill have a search 2

Finns4
04-28-2006, 05:58 AM
Scattered clouds , should be around a very cold 8 degrees b4 kick off, so if the grounds are wet 45.5 looks decent

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 05:59 AM
I might wait until the telecast on foxsports starts at 5.30pm as my only bookie that has a line is Centrebet and it closes at 5.35pm. I just hope the line does not move beforehand. I was just sussing it out before and the highlanders are averaging 20 points per game against and the Waratahs 13.

Finns4
04-28-2006, 05:59 AM
Friday Low cloud, and drizzle at times. Northeasterlies, 45 km/h about the peninsula.

Need ground reports

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 06:14 AM
The Tah's only arrived in the city yesterday and according to a report, got out straight away to train in the wet and get accustomed to the conditions they'll face tonight ..

sparkus8
04-28-2006, 06:18 AM
Well I'm guessing the ground is going to be pretty wet. I don't know if you all heard, but the Waratahs flight landing was aborted on Wednesday because of the terrible weather in Dunedin. Here is a a link to an article about it http://foxsports.news.com.au/story/0,8659,18953044-23217,00.html

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 06:18 AM
Take a look at this live webcam at Otago port I'm sure that I can see small puddles?

http://www.portotago.co.nz/17/1/1.html

sparkus8
04-28-2006, 06:19 AM
I'll definitely be on the under 45.5 the TAB are offering in the Union and will probably have a crack at the unders in the NRL tonight.

Cheers,

Sparks

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 06:25 AM
Yeah I think I've read enough too .. all indications are the place has been flooded all week .. all the quotes in relevant stories talk about wet weather footy ect .. Certainly looks like a night for a low scoring game in the cold and wet of Dunedin.

The Highlanders look like they're up for this game, but with their playmaker Nick Evans still absent they might be a little bereft of ideas in attack as it, is let alone with the wet conditions factored in.

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 06:31 AM
Yep I just got on at Centrebet $1.83 under 44.5. A couple of my other bookies now have a line up at 43.5 and 42.5.

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 06:48 AM
Still untouched at $1.85 (45.5) on Sportsbet .. surely shapes as the best punt of the night ..

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 06:54 AM
The centrebet line had remained $1.83 at 44.5 for a few hours but it won't take much for them to move that line now so I hopped before they do. Thats interesting that the sportsbet line is so high.

bad gambler
04-28-2006, 07:03 AM
Looks like it isn't raining or going to rain tonight, one has to hope that the ground got belted throughout the week and doesn't pull up well

I still think Highlanders with the points is the best for tonight

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 07:05 AM
For some reason, Super 14 seems to remain pretty well untouched by punters on TAB Sportsbet. Occasionally you'll see a line price shorten from $1.85 to $1.80 but that's about it .. I've never seen a total hit to the extent where it's price shifts ..

Anyway, I'm not complaining if this one stays at it's original price..

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 07:14 AM
I think they're both good things .. I was surprised the Tahs were so short price wise to win this one. The Highlanders at home are always tough, and with this touted as their last throw of the dice to stay in the finals hunt, they'll be hard at it.

Under 45.5 points and the Highlanders +10.5, take your pick IMO.

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 07:36 AM
I think we will find that it has been drizzling a bit at times in Dunedin today

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 07:46 AM
Okay I can now ascertain that in the last 24 hours Dunedin has had 0.4mm of rain also currently winds of around 20km ph.

Finns4
04-28-2006, 07:59 AM
K $400 On UNDER 45.5 @ 1.85 odds now $1.75

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 08:00 AM
0.4 mm .. that's not much at all ..

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 08:01 AM
Price has dropped to $1.80 .. I'm outa here!

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 08:06 AM
Centrebet now down 1 point to 43.5 $1.85

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 08:09 AM
Another of my bookies was 43.5 $1.90 is now 43 $1.80

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 08:14 AM
Another of my bookies was 43.5 $1.90 is now 43 $1.80


This bookie is now 42.5 $1.85

Anders
04-28-2006, 08:20 AM
raining in Dunedin for the game, ground is v wet too ...

sparkus8
04-28-2006, 08:20 AM
That 45.5 at the TAB is looking mighty good now :)

Finns4
04-28-2006, 08:23 AM
Sporting bet has gone fron 43.5 to 40.5!!!

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 08:27 AM
raining in Dunedin for the game, ground is v wet too ...

Music too my ears mate :)

andrew057
04-28-2006, 08:27 AM
Awesome stuff guys, this is a cracker of a thread. Im with BG, I took Highlanders +12.5, lets do this guys.

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 08:30 AM
Foxsports coverage has started it's pouring rain atm.

Anders
04-28-2006, 08:31 AM
rain has stopped, but may well come back - ball will be v slippery, v v wet u/foot, got on the under 45.5 and the highlanders +10.5, GL all

Finns4
04-28-2006, 08:31 AM
Looks good on the tv i.e bad weather

bad gambler
04-28-2006, 08:32 AM
Highlanders ML as well for me, should be a kick the difference in this game either way

Anders
04-28-2006, 08:35 AM
anyone not with tv want some score updates?

sparkus8
04-28-2006, 08:35 AM
Good to see both sides have dropped the ball once a piece in the first minute :)

Anders
04-28-2006, 09:03 AM
3-0 W'tahs after 28 mins. good stuff...

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 09:09 AM
Keep em coming Anders .. I have fox at my fingertips here but prefer not to watch!!

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 09:23 AM
Waratahs 13 - 3 HT

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 09:30 AM
Right on target fellow "under takers" ..(!!) Gee that try on halftime would've been nice it if DIDN'T HAPPEN! But in any case, it's hard to see 28+ points being scored in the second half ..

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 09:30 AM
Waratahs 20 - 3 after 42 minutes

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 09:48 AM
Waratahs 20 - 3 after 56 minutes

a few close calls Highlanders lost ball over the line and Peter Hewat dropped the ball over the line without a hand on him

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 09:51 AM
No friggin way .. that's every "under taker's" ultimate dream play!!

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 10:01 AM
Waratahs 20 - 3 after 66 mins

Highlanders just a 14 or 15 phase attack a lot of it metres from the Waratahs line and the Waratahs held them out until they knocked on

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 10:03 AM
just wind down the clock lads .. never feel completely safe with these bets until it's inside the final five minutes ..

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 10:06 AM
Waratahs 20 - 3 after 71 mins

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 10:12 AM
20-3 after 77 minutes .. home and hosed ..

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 10:13 AM
Waratahs 20 - 3 after 77 mins

Line up to collect mate

sparkus8
04-28-2006, 10:16 AM
Congratulations under backers - never in doubt :)

The Gucci one
04-28-2006, 10:17 AM
GSM Waratahs 20 - 3

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 10:23 AM
Handshakes all round gents .. that's exactly what we look for in terms of a game to play an "under" .. we duly hit it .. and it won .. !

Mr Flamboyant
04-28-2006, 11:18 AM
On the flipside, there's been a $20,000 wager placed on Sunday's Souths vs Newcastle match to go over the 49.5 points total ..

I think picking potential overs games is well worth the effort on this thread too .. Just out of interest, betting's been suspended in the aforementioned match because there's a whisper that Andrew Johns might return..

bad gambler
04-28-2006, 12:15 PM
This is not quite a wet weather under, but a spinoff from the idea of variables playing a role in the total

The one in question is the Swans-Cats game tomorrow night at Telstra Stadium - the turf was only laid out on Thursday believe it or not and Roos complained this evening about the surface and how it dug up when the swans trained on it today. Add to the fact these teams historically play some pretty dour games, it will be interesting to see what the total is set for this one

bad gambler
04-28-2006, 11:21 PM
My wife's sister lives in Wellington has told me it is teaming down this morning in wellington and was raining yesterday as well

Add the Canes' torrid defense the super 14 match this arvo has under written all over it, looks like there is more showers to come late evening as well over there


Shame there is no footy in Sydney today, what a miserable day weather wise :o

The Gucci one
04-29-2006, 12:24 AM
Thanks BG Canes v Chiefs unders could be a play 0.2mm rain in the last hour from what I have been able to find out. Another possible play could be Brumbies v Reds as the forcast is for light rain showers in Canberra today.

The Gucci one
04-29-2006, 12:57 AM
Melbourne v Saints u46.5 30% chance of rain in Melbourne today
Cowboys v Roosters u46.5 205 chance of rain in Townsville today

Mr Flamboyant
04-29-2006, 01:47 AM
Think the Brumbies - Reds game could be a good one depending on what total is eventually given .. The Reds usually lift for games against the Waratahs and ACT and with Larkham out the hosts will have to work hard for their points.

The Gucci one
04-29-2006, 01:48 AM
Just been looking at some webcam shots from Wellington and spotted tiny bits of blue sky it maybe going to clear up over there.

The Gucci one
04-29-2006, 01:50 AM
Brumbies v Reds total posted at 45.5 at a couple of my bookies what do you think Mr Flambo?

Mr Flamboyant
04-29-2006, 02:00 AM
Hmmm...just don't know Gucci .. Put it this way, it's not one of those games that you put a circle around early in the week and say 'that's an unders game' .. I guess you've gotta be cautious when it comes to the Brumbies, especially at home. It's risky because they CAN put points on the board in a hurry. And if it's one of those nights for them, well any scoreline's possible. I think 45.5 is a bit awkward from a punting point of view ..

The Gucci one
04-29-2006, 02:09 AM
Thanks for the advice mate

The Gucci one
04-29-2006, 02:12 AM
Just been looking at webcam shots from Wellington a lot more blue sky now looks like the unders play will be a no go for me.

Mr Flamboyant
04-29-2006, 02:22 AM
Yeah the Chiefs have been dragged into high scoring games of late .. The one game I do have a feel for today in terms of unders is still the Broncos v Canberra. Two very methodical teams going at it, Broncos defending very well in recent weeks, reckon it'll be a grind.

ika_geo
04-29-2006, 05:19 AM
WARRIORS VS BULLDOGS - TOTAL POINTS O/U

Its 45.5 at Tab.
loking at the forecast its been raining in Aukland today and will be some tommorow.
I am thinking to go big on Under. both teams are physical and with slippery conditions i hope for low scoring game. What worries me Bulldogs ability to score but recently they have been bad (vs manly and south). Any ideas if going big on under here makes sense ? if i wait till tommorow the price will drop by then .

The Gucci one
04-29-2006, 05:33 AM
WARRIORS VS BULLDOGS - TOTAL POINTS O/U

Its 45.5 at Tab.
loking at the forecast its been raining in Aukland today and will be some tommorow.
I am thinking to go big on Under. both teams are physical and with slippery conditions i hope for low scoring game. What worries me Bulldogs ability to score but recently they have been bad (vs manly and south). Any ideas if going big on under here makes sense ? if i wait till tommorow the price will drop by then .

Derfinitely one I'll be looking into tommorrow morning. I just had a look at some webcams and it does not appear to be raining atm but there is a forcast of 30% chance of rain tommorrow.

Mr Flamboyant
04-29-2006, 05:36 AM
Yeah I looked at this one as a potential play too, even before the threat of wet weather became apparent. The Warriors' cavalier style of play suggests they should be the last team you'd want to get involved with on this sort of bet, but for every raid they launch, more often than not, an error brings them undone.

But .. as last weekend showed, when the passes do stick, they can rack up tries in a hurry and that's the danger. The Bulldogs though should turn up with a far better attitude than last weekend and provide a bit more resistance in defense than the hapless Rabbitohs.

If wet weather's on the cards for this game, taking the under is definitely worth a shot. But only if it's wet IMO.

I know I sound like a broken record, but I still think tonight's Brisbane - Canberra game is the pick of the bunch for this type of bet.

The Gucci one
04-29-2006, 05:53 AM
Could be mate but it is a beautiful sunny afternoon here and in Brisbane so I won't be touching it.

The Gucci one
04-29-2006, 05:59 AM
Raiders ave 23.50 away from home
Broncos ave 23.50 at home scoring 30 points in the last 3 home games

Mr Flamboyant
04-29-2006, 06:04 AM
Yeah personally I'm leaning towards a nice boring but safe multi today .. just to consolodate on yesterday

Mr Flamboyant
04-29-2006, 06:09 AM
On the flip side Gucci .. totals in Brisbane's games this season have been : 40, 28, 40, 38, 42, 30, 36 .. They're a grafting type of side nowadays .. Don't think they'll afford the Raiders too many points tonight. Infact both teams will probably have to work pretty hard for their points ..

bad gambler
04-29-2006, 07:36 AM
I can confirm it is currently raining in Windy Wellington, expected to rain harder tonight as well

Mr Flamboyant
04-29-2006, 07:42 AM
TAB Sportsbet are clued onto the situation .. their line is 42.5 points .. bit low for me ..

bad gambler
04-29-2006, 11:36 PM
Well I lost on the Canes unders thanks to a last second try after the siren

Today I will be on the warriors unders, raining there this morning and should be steady throughout the day. Even if this was a dry track the unders would have been a decent bet

The Gucci one
04-30-2006, 01:14 AM
No rain in Auckland for the past few hours unfortunately the east coast of the north island has had heaps. If you look at the rain map below and consider the wind is a SW I don't think it is going to rain in the next 4 or 5 hours. So probably a no play for me, I'll just sit back and hope my Parra v Manly Under 48 points gets up. Good luck with your Warriors/Dogs unders play BG.

http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/index.php?alias=akradar
http://traffic.transit.govt.nz/ViewCamera.do?id=3
http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/index.php?alias=auckland

bad gambler
04-30-2006, 01:27 AM
whats the rationale behind your unders play TGO in the Eels game out of interest? On paper it should be a high scoring game no? Beautiful day here in Sydney by the way

bad gambler
04-30-2006, 01:58 AM
Ok apparently it is a fine day in Auckland :lol:

no play for me then, if dogs drift anymore might take them to win

The Gucci one
04-30-2006, 01:59 AM
I played it on Wednesday when it was forcast for rain down there on both Saturday and Sunday I realise now that it cleared up down there yesterday afternoon. I still think that I'm in with a better than 50% chance. Manly have shown very solid improvement in defence this season only allowing 19.28 points per game which is probably 6 or 7 better than last season. Up against Parra ave points per game of 17.00. I also think the motivation will be high for both sides which generally leads to a good attitude in defence.

Mr Flamboyant
04-30-2006, 03:04 AM
Thus far we've sought out potential unders games exclusively on this thread .. what about overs..? I notice the line of 49.5 points in the Souths v Newcastle game this afternoon has already been hit hard .. over 49.5 points has shortened from it's original $1.85 to $1.70 ..

I tend to think this might have been before Andrew Johns was declared fit .. Without him the game probably would've been an exchange of tries all afternoon. But as we all know when Joey's there, the Knight can suddenly tackle ..

The Gucci one
04-30-2006, 03:19 AM
Overs in that game looks like a fair chance with John's playing Newcastle should at least 30 points could be a lot more.

The Gucci one
04-30-2006, 04:10 AM
Just heard on the radio fair amount of cloud at Telstra stadium I wouldn't play that overs Mr Flambo

bad gambler
04-30-2006, 04:39 AM
Clouds rolling in, few drops at my place

bad gambler
04-30-2006, 04:47 AM
I'm going to join you on that eels under, can't imagine there won't be any rain during the match

The Gucci one
04-30-2006, 04:49 AM
Sounds good BG

Mr Flamboyant
04-30-2006, 04:56 AM
Hmmm .. You blokes are starting to influence me a bit here .. I flat out think the line is pretty high as it is, but if rain's a factor ..??

The Gucci one
04-30-2006, 04:58 AM
I'd be monitoring the line if I was you it has not moved from 47.5 all day at Centrebet you have an hour to monitor the situation.

Mr Flamboyant
04-30-2006, 05:02 AM
The only one I can get on is with TAB Sportsbet .. theirs is set at 49.5 .. @$1.85

Mr Flamboyant
04-30-2006, 05:27 AM
Also looking at a bit each way on total match points 41-50 @ $3.40 .. and 51-60 @ $3.40 .. taking both those would draw a profit .. provides a bit of a buffer if the game does go over ..

The Gucci one
04-30-2006, 05:35 AM
Here is a livecam of Aussie Stadium it looks pretty cloudy in the area.

The livecam of the SCG from that site has been showing the scoreboard for the last hour unfortunately.

http://www.austadiums.com/stadiums/webcams/aussie.php

Mr Flamboyant
04-30-2006, 05:39 AM
Looks more of an overcast day than anything ..

bad gambler
04-30-2006, 05:50 AM
Still very cloudy

Mr Flamboyant
04-30-2006, 06:05 AM
No bet for me .. the under has had a late hit in this game .. backed into $1.75 in the last five mins .. good luck lads ..

The Gucci one
04-30-2006, 06:05 AM
Mr Flambo did you pull the trigger or did you pass?

The Gucci one
04-30-2006, 07:50 AM
Yee Ha Manly 23 - 22 unders wins a nail biting last 22 mins hoping a converted try wouldn't be scored.

Mr Flamboyant
04-30-2006, 02:19 PM
Nar let it go through to the keeper Gucci .. I was nervous for you two guys watching the game in town this afternoon .. When it was 22-22 with more than 20 minutes left I thought you were in big trouble !! '

How do you feel about the punt in hindsight .. ? Do you feel like you dodged a bit of a bullet given that it didn't rain and in the end it took remarkably quiet final quarter of the game to get you through..? Or were you always fairly confident that rain or not it'd be ok ..?

Reason I ask is that it seems to be getting steadily tougher to pick these games with any great confidence unless the weather plays a part. As the season warms up games are starting to become a little more offensive, as teams click a little better in attack. The number of games I've watched over the past couple of weekends where two or three tries are scored in the opening ten or fifteen minutes .. it scared me into sticking with just the one bet all weekend (friday's super 14 win on the warratahs) because I just couldn't get a confident read on anything else.

Anyway I think from now on I'll rely entirely on weather for these unders plays .. In League especially .. Although I guess the title you put on this thread to begin with stated exactly that!!

I think friday's play on that Waratahs v Highlanders game was a great punt by all who took it and I'm content to wait for more situations like that ..

The Gucci one
05-05-2006, 11:56 PM
Possible Wet Weather unders play in the AFL Adelaide v Port Adelaide tonight. Currently it is very overcast and rain is forcast for tonight. None of my bookies have a line out yet and I may struggle to get on as only 1 of my bookies had totals betting available for the AFL last week and that was only on certain matches.

You blokes who know a lot more about AFL what do think the total should be for this game?

The Gucci one
05-06-2006, 12:04 AM
Nar let it go through to the keeper Gucci .. I was nervous for you two guys watching the game in town this afternoon .. When it was 22-22 with more than 20 minutes left I thought you were in big trouble !! '

How do you feel about the punt in hindsight .. ? Do you feel like you dodged a bit of a bullet given that it didn't rain and in the end it took remarkably quiet final quarter of the game to get you through..? Or were you always fairly confident that rain or not it'd be ok ..?

Reason I ask is that it seems to be getting steadily tougher to pick these games with any great confidence unless the weather plays a part. As the season warms up games are starting to become a little more offensive, as teams click a little better in attack. The number of games I've watched over the past couple of weekends where two or three tries are scored in the opening ten or fifteen minutes .. it scared me into sticking with just the one bet all weekend (friday's super 14 win on the warratahs) because I just couldn't get a confident read on anything else.

Anyway I think from now on I'll rely entirely on weather for these unders plays .. In League especially .. Although I guess the title you put on this thread to begin with stated exactly that!!

I think friday's play on that Waratahs v Highlanders game was a great punt by all who took it and I'm content to wait for more situations like that ..

In hindsight mate had I been in your situation where I had to make the decision whether to play this one on the Sunday I probably wouldn't have pulled the trigger just like you didn't. As far as dodging a bullet I guess you could say I did but going into it I was fairly confident even with the dry conditions.

As for my future plays I'll definitely try to stick to plays that are wet weather unders and hope to convert at least 70% of them into winners.

Mr Flamboyant
05-06-2006, 01:31 AM
Gucci after telling all and sundry to throw a lazy couple of coins on "under 150 points" (@ $9) to be scored in the recent Port Adelaide vs St Kilda clash I'm the last one qualified to tip scores in AFL!!

The Gucci one
05-06-2006, 10:19 AM
Okay I'm playing Cowboys v Panthers under 46 wet and windy in Townsville tonight. Links below

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/94294.html
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65519/IDQ65519.94294.shtml

Plus with Gower out and Lewis playing 5/8 I don't expect much cohesion from the Panthers.

Also waiting on a total for Adelaide v Port which I might play considering these links

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDS20217.txt
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR642.shtml

Finns4
05-06-2006, 10:30 AM
Same Here 4 units Under 46.5 $1.88

bad gambler
05-06-2006, 10:34 AM
I'm seeing it's pretty clear tonight up in Townsville :confused:

Finns4
05-06-2006, 10:46 AM
not 2 clear bg ;)

The Gucci one
05-06-2006, 10:47 AM
Okay never did get a total for the Adelaide v Port so I did the following

3rd Quarter 1st scoring play(65km winds with 90km gusts supposedly)

0.25u $3.60 Adelaide point
0.25u $4.00 Port Adelaide point

bad gambler
05-06-2006, 11:33 AM
ok now it is hosing down, nice job TGO - 36 point buffer at HT you are going to have to be very unlucky not to win from here

The Gucci one
05-06-2006, 11:39 AM
Thanks BG looks like a little bit of research late this afternoon and early this evening might pay off.

The Gucci one
05-06-2006, 12:24 PM
Okay never did get a total for the Adelaide v Port so I did the following

3rd Quarter 1st scoring play(65km winds with 90km gusts supposedly)

0.25u $3.60 Adelaide point
0.25u $4.00 Port Adelaide point

Adelaide opened the 3rd quarter with a behind bet won and the Cowboys v Penrith Under 46 also won. Maybe some wet weather unders plays in the AFL tommorrow as it is supposed too be raining in Melbourne. :wavey:

Mr Flamboyant
05-06-2006, 02:05 PM
Well done lads .. Ironically I currently reside within a couple of hundred kilometres of Townsville but, due to a long overdue night on the 'gas' with friends I was in no position to get on the obvious at Dairy Farmers!! It was a clear night in Cairns..! AAAAARRRRR! Soon as I saw the telecast come on I knew all you troopers would pound the under .. great work .. enjoy the spoils!!

The Gucci one
05-12-2006, 05:22 AM
Possible plays tonight in Christchurch, Crusaders v Brumbies
and in Brisbane, Reds v Highlanders

I don't have any totals yet but both could possibly be wet. It's been raining in Christchurch most of the day and there is a chance of rain in Brisbane later I will be monitoring both situations.

The Gucci one
05-12-2006, 05:30 AM
Okay Centrebet has the following totals

Crusaders v Brumbies 46.5
Reds v Highlanders 48.5 (thanks BG for pointing out my mistake)

Hmm interesting I crunched some numbers before they went up and thought the Crusaders v Brumbies would be around 46 which was pretty close but I thought the other total would be around 41. Anybody have any thoughts why the Reds v Highlanders total is so high even higher than the Crusaders v Brumbies?

bad gambler
05-12-2006, 05:49 AM
I think you mean Reds v Highlanders mate

Main reason it is so high is both teams have nothing to play for, this is their last game of the year and are playing in Townsville as a bit of an exercise to spread the "gospel" of rugby union - Reds will be throwing the pill around all night and I expect the Highlanders to do the same as well

Mr Flamboyant
05-12-2006, 06:12 AM
Hang five gents .. just going to 'phone a friend' down the road in Townsville and get some information on this .. it's been raining the last couple of days here in Cairns but "Brownsville" may be a different story ..

The Gucci one
05-12-2006, 06:19 AM
Thanks BG my mistake, also you are right Reds v Highlanders is being played in Townsville where it also could be wet. One of my bookies had the match up as being played in Brisbane which is a bit misleading.

Mr Flamboyant
05-12-2006, 06:22 AM
The word from the Reds camp this week has been all about sending coach Jeff Miller out on a high .. the wallabies coach jeff miller is also going to be at tonight's game, and with dry weather down there all week I think this one carries a fair danger of being higher scoring than the average Reds game.

The highlanders are also out of the running for the S14 finals and so it looks like both will chance their arm and take a few liberties they wouldn't normally take if bound by the pressure of having something bigger to play for.

The Gucci one
05-12-2006, 06:31 AM
Thanks Mr Flambo

Finns4
05-12-2006, 08:12 AM
sportstab 48.5 anyone got weather updates

The Gucci one
05-12-2006, 08:26 AM
Not 100% sure but I don't think it is currently raining in either Townsville or Christchurch. I will be watching Crusaders v Brumbies telecast in 5 minutes and will only make an unders play if it is raining.

The Gucci one
05-12-2006, 08:32 AM
A little soft under foot but no play for me as Crusaders may run over a depleted Brumbies

Finns4
05-12-2006, 08:34 AM
Gone small on under 48.5 in brumbies game @ 1.80

Im going to go BIG on OVER in Reds Game 46.5

bad gambler
05-13-2006, 03:52 AM
For saturday, worth looking into the super 14 game tonight in Auckland - Blues v Chiefs with total set at 49.5

Looking at the map, seems to be raining with late showers predicted tonight

The Gucci one
05-13-2006, 04:08 AM
Yes BG that game seems to be a possibility although they are 2 high scoring teams

http://traffic.transit.govt.nz/ViewCamera.do?id=2

Has been raining on and off all day in Auckland.

Also monitoring Melbourne v Fremantle under 185.5 may be a little wet

Also will monitor Melbourne v Cowboys under 45.5 also in Mebourne

Mr Flamboyant
05-13-2006, 04:17 AM
There's already been money for the under 45.5 on the Storm vs Cowboys game .. Initially I was looking at the Blues - Chiefs game as a big scoring one, but if there's rain around over there that might curtail it a bit ..

BTW Gucci, while hindsight is great, sorry to have talked you out of the unders play in the Reds game last night .. forgot to take into account that the Highlanders are completely void of direction in attack ..

The Gucci one
05-13-2006, 04:29 AM
Thats ok Mr Flambo No Rain = No Play

Mr Flamboyant
05-13-2006, 05:19 AM
Leaning on an under in the Bulldogs - Parramatta match tomorrow .. Total's at 47.5 and with neither side boasting a lot of creativity, coupled with the fact it's a rivalry match, looks like it could be tight and tough ..

Elmasri is also out for the Dogs so their four pointers won't be automatic six pointers!

The Gucci one
05-13-2006, 05:30 AM
Agree unders could be the play in the Parra v Dogs game. Where did you hear that El Masri is out? A few hours ago I heard he was going to play.

Things in Auckland are still looking good for tonight and the Total is yet to move which is good also.

Mr Flamboyant
05-13-2006, 06:51 AM
Forget where I heard it to be honest, but on top of that he doesn't appear in the Bulldogs' lineup .. Has been replaced by Namila Davui (a Bankstown kebab stand owner) ..

The Gucci one
05-13-2006, 06:57 AM
Namila Davui scored truckload of tries in the pre season trials

The Gucci one
05-13-2006, 06:59 AM
Continuing to rain in Auckland jumped on early before the total moves under 49.5 at $1.80

sports freak
05-13-2006, 07:05 AM
Tailing on Unders aswell in Blues game,thanks for the info fellas!!!!Bulldogs will crush the Eels,the total is suspect cos Dogs can put up 30+ while Eels could go with 3 or 4 tries aswell imo!!

Blues/Chiefs Under 48.5pts

bad gambler
05-13-2006, 07:09 AM
Already on it at 49.5

pile on boys

sports freak
05-13-2006, 07:14 AM
Already on it at 49.5

pile on boys

Boeing 747 is getting ready!!!

Mr Flamboyant
05-13-2006, 07:27 AM
You guys sure..? How bad are the conditions across the ditch Gucci?

The Gucci one
05-13-2006, 07:39 AM
Here is what I'm looking at

http://english.wunderground.com/global/stations/93119.html
http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/index.php?alias=auckland

One says it has not rained in the last hour so I'm not sure if it still is. It has rained most of the day. I was looking at some webcams earlier but it is dark now so they are not much help.

The Gucci one
05-14-2006, 04:45 AM
Looks like Carlton v Essendon could be wet according to the following

http://english.wunderground.com/global/stations/94868.html
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR023.shtml

Total at 171.5 seems pretty low so I'm not sure whether to play it or not?

The Gucci one
05-14-2006, 04:54 AM
Total was taken down and now put back up at 174.5

Finns4
05-14-2006, 04:55 AM
@ what book gucci?

The Gucci one
05-14-2006, 04:56 AM
Multibet mate

The Gucci one
05-14-2006, 05:03 AM
Now 178.5

sports freak
05-14-2006, 07:37 AM
Thanks for the info on the Under 48.5 in Blues game,appreciate the efforts been done!!
Congrats to everyone who won aswell

The Gucci one
05-20-2006, 03:37 AM
Possible Rain in Sydney tonight and Auckland.

Possible Plays

League
Manly v Melbourne u45.5
New Zealand v Wests u44.5

AFL
Western Bulldogs v Sydney

Will be back before kickoff to update the situation.

The Gucci one
05-20-2006, 08:29 AM
No rain in Auckland = No Play

Mr Flamboyant
05-20-2006, 09:27 AM
A lot of money has come of the under 47.5 total in the Manly - Melbourne game .. any Sydney-siders on hand with a weather update?

bad gambler
05-20-2006, 10:02 AM
A lot of money has come of the under 47.5 total in the Manly - Melbourne game .. any Sydney-siders on hand with a weather update?


No rain here mate at the moment

Mr Flamboyant
05-20-2006, 10:09 AM
That'll be interesting then .. if anything I had that particular game pegged as a high scoring one ..

The Gucci one
05-20-2006, 10:25 AM
Manly v Melbourne will be a low scoring affair but as there is no rain in Sydney it is a no play for me. Been monitoring the situation for the Newcastle v Canberra unfortunately it has been raining out to sea for the past few hours but not at Newcastle so no play there either.

http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR032.shtml

Maybe some plays tommorrow in the 2 league games in Sydney tommorrow afternoon as rain is forecast.

bad gambler
05-20-2006, 10:31 AM
It is raining now out at Brookvale

Mr Flamboyant
05-20-2006, 10:37 AM
F@ck me! it's umbrella city at Brookvale .. !!! too late ..

The Gucci one
05-20-2006, 10:44 AM
Yep I just missed it as well

Mr Flamboyant
05-21-2006, 02:45 AM
Ok two big totals posted for today's games (both at 48.5), what's the weather doing in Sydney today gents..?

The Gucci one
05-21-2006, 03:27 AM
No rain in Sydney so far so it's not looking good for any plays. Also for the Roosters Cross,Soliola & Soward are in. Sa,Hall & Tonga out.

bad gambler
05-21-2006, 03:38 AM
Beautiful weather in Sydney

Looking into the overs actually in the chooks-bunnies game

Chooks have their speedsters back in the centres today, should be plenty if tries from both sides

sports freak
05-21-2006, 03:57 AM
Beautiful weather in Sydney

Looking into the overs actually in the chooks-bunnies game

Chooks have their speedsters back in the centres today, should be plenty if tries from both sides

Chooks n Roosters usually play low scoring games!!!More defensive then offence when these to hit it out!!

Mr Flamboyant
05-21-2006, 04:10 AM
Leaning with BG on this one .. you'd be loathe to back an "under" in any match involving the Rabbitohs, and with good weather as mentioned, there'll likely be a thousand points scored this afternoon..

The Gucci one
05-21-2006, 04:12 AM
Possible play in the AFL in Melbourne

Carlton v St.Kilda under 184.5

Mr Flamboyant
05-21-2006, 04:12 AM
If anything an under looks more likely in the Bulldogs vs Sharks match given that so many key players are missing for both sides. But then again, that can often go the other way and open the game up .. Play of the day is definitely something on the Sharks (ML or with the start)..

The Gucci one
05-21-2006, 05:08 AM
Ok I'm playing Carlton v St Kilda u184.5 wind now possible rain later

bad gambler
05-27-2006, 06:28 AM
Wind & rain forecasted for tonight's super 14 final

Mr Flamboyant
05-27-2006, 06:44 AM
Total is set fairly low .. 44.5 ..

The Gucci one
05-27-2006, 07:20 AM
BG where did you get your forcast?

bad gambler
05-27-2006, 07:43 AM
ABC radio during the halftime in the AFL, though looking at the forecast on the net it only appears to be wind

The Gucci one
05-27-2006, 07:53 AM
I think I'll wait and see what the weather is like when the broadcast starts.

bad gambler
05-27-2006, 08:27 AM
Well it is hard to see what the weather is like becuase the ground is surrounded by fog :lol:

Mr Flamboyant
05-27-2006, 08:35 AM
F@$k me dead .. Look at that fog!! Bombs away!!

Mr Flamboyant
05-27-2006, 08:37 AM
Pity if you bought a nose bleed ticket!!

bad gambler
05-27-2006, 08:46 AM
I honestly can not see anything, the game should be called off

The unders in this game looks a gift, players can't even see the ball :rolls:

Straby
05-27-2006, 10:02 AM
Damn, woke up early to see this one. But there's nothing to see really. :(

The Gucci one
05-28-2006, 12:50 AM
Yes guys I got on unders as soon as I saw that fog(didn't post because I had to leave straight away for a family birthday celebration). I don't really follow the Super 14 but I must say what a sad way to decide a grand final. It probably should have been postponed but I guess it's extremely difficult to do when the situation arises 90 minutes before kickoff. Today I don't see much chance of another play coming up but I'll be monitoring the situation and will post if anything appears on the radar.

Mr Flamboyant
05-28-2006, 04:48 AM
Agree Gucci, that was a comical way to finish the season. Whenever they cut to the high shot on the telecast, you simply couldn't see a thing on the field. It must have been a weird situation for the players.

bad gambler
05-28-2006, 06:46 AM
I'm taking the unders 182 in the late AFL game, Eagles v Demons - slight drizzle in Perth at the moment, pays a sweet $2.40 on CB


EDIT: Rain has stopped, still taking the under though

The Gucci one
06-02-2006, 06:18 AM
Okay looking like there could be a few plays this weekend with rain in Sydney.

Already placed 1 unit on St.George v Parra u44.5 and may put on an extra unit before kickoff. Looks promising as can be seen in link below.

Rainfall radar (http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR033.shtml)

Mr Flamboyant
06-02-2006, 06:52 AM
Statistically this one should be low scoring .. Parramatta and StGeorge (until their breakout last friday at least) were the two lowest scoring teams in terms of tries heading into last weekend.

Add to that the absence of Trent Barrett for the Dragons (and the fact that Mark Gasnier has subsequently been moved closer to the action at five eighth) and the creativity stocks look a bit thin on the ground for both teams.

I've been pretty tunnel visioned on a Storm - Raiders double and nothing else for this weekend, but if it begins to bucket down at Oki Jubilee or whatever the hell it's called nowadays, then taking the under 45.5 looks good.

Mr Flamboyant
06-02-2006, 06:58 AM
Well it's quite obviously coming down in f#ckets-full, errr buckets-full because the price for the under 45.5 has been backed from it's opening quote of $1.85 into $1.65 !! This is where we need a Sydney sider for an on-the-spot update ..

The Gucci one
06-02-2006, 07:00 AM
Mr Flambo you hit the nail on the head re your analysis of tonights game. No Head & Barrett equals a far poorer attacking kicking game as well. Also no chance of a blowout due to either team not turning up mentally prepared to play. JT has Parra back on the job and Saints always turn up to play at home.

The Gucci one
06-02-2006, 07:07 AM
At Sportingbet it was 44 this morning down to 42 and Sportsbook 44.5 to 43 $1.82

The Gucci one
06-02-2006, 07:13 AM
Centrebet have now removed the game total.

The Gucci one
06-02-2006, 07:15 AM
Centrebet now have it back up at 42.5 which has backed into a $1.78

The Gucci one
06-02-2006, 08:07 AM
Okay after hearing a report on 2gb from a reporter at the ground who said conditions are horrible and the ground is getting torrential rain atm. I decided to pile on with another unit at u42.5.

The Gucci one
06-02-2006, 08:34 AM
Timmins & Bickerstaff out for Saints

Mr Flamboyant
06-02-2006, 09:04 AM
The under's a given! It's been all but obliterated on TAB Sportsbet .. down to $1.50 !

sparkus8
06-02-2006, 10:02 AM
Well I've gone for the match to land between 21-30 points @ $7.50 from Sportsbet. Super value IMO!

Mr Flamboyant
06-02-2006, 10:20 AM
hehe, yeah, so must quite a few big dogs out there Sparkus .. That price is now $4.25!!

The Gucci one
06-02-2006, 10:29 AM
Total is down to 39.5 at Sportingbet & Sportsbook.BOL lets hope we all win.

Mr Flamboyant
06-02-2006, 10:39 AM
Just took the $1.50 for the 45.5 .. juiced it up a tad by adding Adelaide to beat Essendon .. extremely bold bet ! I probably deserve to lose !

bad gambler
06-02-2006, 11:23 AM
Well I've gone for the match to land between 21-30 points @ $7.50 from Sportsbet. Super value IMO!


geez you had the right idea but they may not even hit 20 :o

Mr Flamboyant
06-02-2006, 11:42 AM
0-0 after 45 minutes .. :haha: :haha: :haha: :haha: :haha: :haha: !!!

Mr Flamboyant
06-02-2006, 12:02 PM
Ok this is getting ridiculous .. SOMEONE SCORE!!!

Mr Flamboyant
06-02-2006, 12:04 PM
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALLLLLL LL!!! GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAALLLL!!! GOLA-GOLA-GOLA-GOLA-GOLA-GOLA!!!

Paraguay .. I mean Parramatta leads 1-nil!!

bad gambler
06-02-2006, 12:18 PM
Wow i feel sorry for any Eels +5.5 backers out there

sparkus8
06-02-2006, 03:28 PM
geez you had the right idea but they may not even hit 20 :o

Yeah tell me about it. It wasn't even close in the end!! I saw that the 0-10 option went off at 200/1 as did the FG first points. I wonder if anyone had either of them!

After watching that finish though you have to feel sorry for the Eels backers. That has to be the biggest moose job in the history of rugby league when it comes to ATS betting. I'm happy though because I had Saints minus the points in the NRL tipping comp :D

Mr Flamboyant
06-02-2006, 03:35 PM
Wow i feel sorry for any Eels +5.5 backers out there

Yeah and when you see how the Dragons scored their try you'll feel even more sympathetic!

I notice punters are already rushing to back the under in tomorrow night's Bulldogs v Newcastle match .. That one's set at 47.5 and if it's as wet as it was tonight, then it's obviously worth a play.

Can't see another nine point game though!

sparkus8
06-02-2006, 03:42 PM
The forecast is for showers for the rest of the weekend so it will probably be wet. In saying that though if there is a break in the weather I would be hesistant with that under as Telstra Stadium has a ridiculously good drainage system unlike Kogarah Oval where it was played tonight.

I'd be looking at the Penrith v Manly game if the weather keeps up. Panther Stadium is not the greatest ground when it is wet so if the rain keeps up it could be pretty horrible out there come Sunday afternoon.

Mr Flamboyant
06-02-2006, 03:43 PM
Just took the $1.50 for the 45.5 .. juiced it up a tad by adding Adelaide to beat Essendon .. extremely bold bet ! I probably deserve to lose !

8-1 & Adelaide by 133 .. Wish they all could win that easily .. Mind you for $1.60 you'd like to think both legs would hit comfortably ..

Mr Flamboyant
06-02-2006, 03:53 PM
The forecast is for showers for the rest of the weekend so it will probably be wet. In saying that though if there is a break in the weather I would be hesistant with that under as Telstra Stadium has a ridiculously good drainage system unlike Kogarah Oval where it was played tonight.

I'd be looking at the Penrith v Manly game if the weather keeps up. Panther Stadium is not the greatest ground when it is wet so if the rain keeps up it could be pretty horrible out there come Sunday afternoon.

Pays to switched on with these plays because they're so reliable when the circumstances are right. I'd like it to be pretty soggy to warrant a play on the Knights-Bulldogs because there's a lot of points in both teams.

sports freak
06-03-2006, 01:03 AM
Pays to switched on with these plays because they're so reliable when the circumstances are right. I'd like it to be pretty soggy to warrant a play on the Knights-Bulldogs because there's a lot of points in both teams.

Agree on Knights/Bulldogs been there's a;ot of pts but also the Defence isnt no slouch for both teams!!World Cup Fever has takin over rugby whats next :)

Mr Flamboyant
06-03-2006, 09:20 AM
alright , the under has taken a pummelling in the Knights - Dogs game .. Sydney lads, what's the brief on the conditions ..?

bad gambler
06-03-2006, 09:50 AM
No rain in Sydney tonight

The Gucci one
06-03-2006, 12:25 PM
Looks like Warriors and Broncs will be wet as well. I already laid down 1 unit on under 44.5 and will take another look at it in the morning and may lay down another. These are 2 good defensive units and with rain forcast overnight and all morning it should be a unders wet play.

Mr Flamboyant
06-03-2006, 12:36 PM
Yep .. I like the under in this game regardless of the weather to be honest .. it'll be a real knock em down slug fest .. if there's rain it's golden ..

BTW .. so glad I didn't follow the public on the Bulldogs - Knights under ..

The Gucci one
06-04-2006, 12:51 AM
Raining in Auckland at the moment so I put another unit on under 44.5 @ $1.70. Centrebet seem to be the only ones brave enough to have it available out of the 4 bookies I'm with.Links below seem to indicate current conditions are condusive to a wet weather unders play

http://english.wunderground.com/global/stations/93119.html
http://traffic.transit.govt.nz/ViewCamera.do?id=2

BOL all

bad gambler
06-04-2006, 01:06 AM
On it as well Gucc, gl

sports freak
06-04-2006, 02:19 AM
On it as well Gucc, gl

Anyone know if its still raining or the ground is nice n soaked :) like Broncos in a tight one!!!

The Gucci one
06-04-2006, 02:55 AM
SF It's been raining most of the morning and I think it still is although I'm not 100% sure atm.

sports freak
06-04-2006, 03:02 AM
SF It's been raining most of the morning and I think it still is although I'm not 100% sure atm.

Ty for the info Gucci,the ground must be quite soaked or the ball slippery if rain had persisted in the morning,thanks for the great work with the weather!!!Hope you guys hit it,it has been pounded to 1.60 now!!Take a look at Menzies 300th game :)