AFL Round 3 [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

AFL Round 3

bossboss
04-12-2006, 01:06 AM
1.31 St kilda - Brisbane 3.4
1.09 geelong - Hawthorn 7.5
2.3 carlton - Sydney 1.62
1.08 Wc - Richmond 8
2.8 Melbourne- Adelaide 1.43
2.35 Essendon - W. Bulldogs 1.6
1.29 Port - Freo 3.6
1.85 Collingwood - kangaroos 1.95

bossboss
04-12-2006, 01:10 AM
i like one bet so far.. Hawthorn +41.5 at $1.9

i know geelong won the first 2 rounds with more than that margin .. but they can't do it forever.
Scarlett is out for 2.. Mark Williams will have a party after been quite week against pies.
Hawthorn can hand the small forward line of Geelong including Kingsley .. they had problems with Big strong Rocca.

Bolar Bolabi
04-12-2006, 02:10 AM
Carlton @ $2.30 is the bet of the round.

Sydney have shown us nothing but crap in the first 2 rounds aswell as the pre-season. Carlton are looking alright. They are playing well and they fought back hard against Freo last week.

Parlay

Port Adelaide X St.Kilda X Adelaide @ $2.49

Good luck!

Will post lines when I get the chance to.

Mr Flamboyant
04-12-2006, 03:31 AM
Spot on with your value pick of the round Bolar Bolabai .. To back Sydney is to take a giant leap of faith that the premiers will come good, and unless they do they'll be out-enthused and out gunned for a third straight weekend. Little wrong with Carlton's form thus far, and at $2.30 they're value because they (should!) give another honest effort. Add to that the fact the Swans are, as mentioned, struggling and the game's in Melbourne!

Nice treble too .. Being a bit of a conservative wuss, I was going to hit a Saints - Geelong - West Coast treble (for the princely price of around $1.55!) but will wait to get a read on the Power and Crows with a view backing them instead.

hawker
04-13-2006, 04:03 AM
In tonights preview I have decided to add an extra bit on VALUE for most possies and high goalscorer.


St Kilda vs. Brisbane Lions
Thursday 13 Apr 2006 at Telstra Dome 7:40pm


Tonight at the Dome sees St Kilda take on Brisbane in the first game of the easter weekend.

Current form isnt the best from either side, Brisbane is coming of a win to Essendon last week at the GABBA but had a massive loss to Geelong the weekend before. St Kilda are also coming of a win, but was less then impressive against the Tigers last week at the Dome with an 11 point win.

They really are struggling up forward with Gehrig and Milne nowhere to be seen. Reiwoldt is needing alot more help up there and also has some improving to do himself.

Last time these 2 sides met St Kilda won by 139 points in a floggin round 22 last year at the Dome on a day where Milny kicked 11 and Reiwoldt 6.

High Goal Scorer Value
Reiwoldt does have a good a past vs Brisbane kicking 17 goals in the last 4 matches vs them 6,3,3,5 and could be some value as the High Goalscorer of the match @ $5.50

Most Posessions Value
If you are looking for some value in the Most possesions market aswell Dal Santo has had 29 and 27 against Brisbane the lst couple times to lead posessions getters and is available @ $6.00 to beat (hayes, black, harvey, power, johnson, sherman and reiwoldt).


Brisbane are coming of just a 5 game break and having to travel away they could really struggle. St Kilda just loves the Dome and once they get going there are very hard to stop. They only just beet the tigers there by 11 points last week but ended of last season of with 5 wins there by an average of 70 points keeping there opponents to an average of just 66 points.

Akermanis as been signaled out in the press this week by his own coach to 'get a kick' will he respond to the true akka style and lift his team? Surely he might lift but this wont be enough for Brisbane to get close to St Kilda here.

Saints to lift and cover the -21.5 line

St Kilda -21.5 @ $1.91

hawker
04-13-2006, 04:05 AM
Good luck with the Carlton bet guys, Sydney really are struggling right now and who knows Sam Newman might be right on the money saying that they will miss the 8 this year. Long way to go though.

Mr Flamboyant
04-13-2006, 08:17 AM
What are the thoughts on tonight's contest ..? For mine StKilda under 39.5 looks a solid play, although I'm very reluctant to muck around with margins.. Just looks like the sort of game where the Lions will hang around against a Saints side that hasn't hit it's straps yet but will do enough to win.

Certainly a repeat of the blowout in round 22 last year looks pretty fanciful ..

dave nz
04-13-2006, 10:13 AM
Have gone back to the exact capping methods that have worked for me well in the past for this weekend :)


One small one tonight :





Brisbane +23.5 over St Kilda------------1 unit






gl

dave

Mr Flamboyant
04-13-2006, 01:32 PM
Saints 124 Lions 72 in the dying stages .. thank heavens I don't play margins!

As for the rest of the round, it looks a little tricky.. The Adelaide duo are heavily favoured to win their respective games, but a few here and there suggest the Dockers are real value, and the power shouldn't be touched at $1.35 .. ? The Crows too face Melbourne side coming off two straight defeats. While football logic suggests the Demons will come out breathing fire in a bid to break their duck, the same could be said for the Crows after their shock defeat last sunday.

The Bulldogs look very backable, even at $1.57 against Essendon, who are again sweating on the fitness of Hird. On their previous performances this season, the dogs just look far too full of running for the Bombers, but will they go off the boil after two straight wins? If not, the -11.5 handicap also looks to tasty to resist, even for those of us who're loathe to punt on margins!!

The Eagles and Cats are as close to certainties as you can get in AFL, but the 40+ starts for the Hawks and Tigers may appeal.

Personally I'd steer clear of the Carlton - Sydney clash. Carlton are value plus, but the premiers HAVE to get it right soon, and this is one they won't want to drop (although we probably said that this time last week!) There's a bit a turmoil in the Swans camp too and with more than a few senior players on serious notice, this might be one to sit back and watch.

The Kangaroos are a great bet at $2 (oops, have since shortened to $1.95) against Collingwood. They don't possess the marquee talent of other teams, but they pride themselves on effort, and that's sure to be delivered in truckloads after they were trounced last weekend.

hawker
04-14-2006, 01:12 AM
Well last night was a good night of betting for me.

St Kilda -21.5 $$$ :D to easy

Value Bets came out even better then expected with both reiwldt firing with 5 goals up foward and Dal Santo a massive 31 possies on the ball only to get beat by Hayes with 38.

Reiwolt @ $5.50 :D


anyway other leans at the moment are towards the doggies line and the kangaroos.

sports freak
04-14-2006, 01:15 AM
i like one bet so far.. Hawthorn +41.5 at $1.9

i know geelong won the first 2 rounds with more than that margin .. but they can't do it forever.
Scarlett is out for 2.. Mark Williams will have a party after been quite week against pies.
Hawthorn can hand the small forward line of Geelong including Kingsley .. they had problems with Big strong Rocca.

Good points mate,best of luck with it!!!Go the Hawks

sports freak
04-14-2006, 01:19 AM
Good luck with the Carlton bet guys, Sydney really are struggling right now and who knows Sam Newman might be right on the money saying that they will miss the 8 this year. Long way to go though.

Like Aker said,Sam Newman talks alot of Bullshit aswell!!!Blues are comin from Perth dont forget while the Defending champs should have got a drilling during the week n should be pumped,Swans should win this game!!!Too much on the line imo for them to go down 0-3!!!!!!

sports freak
04-14-2006, 01:23 AM
Bulldogs should be an absolute Gift this weekend,Bombers in for a hiding!!!!Also like Pies since the Roos are in abit of a slump right now,only problem is both teams match up well but i give the Pies the sliight upper hand in this one due to the form of some of their players!!!

hawker
04-14-2006, 07:56 AM
Like Aker said,Sam Newman talks alot of Bullshit aswell!!!Blues are comin from Perth dont forget while the Defending champs should have got a drilling during the week n should be pumped,Swans should win this game!!!Too much on the line imo for them to go down 0-3!!!!!!

Sam talks a hell of alot of shit man, but fuck he knows his stuff with footy.

I seen bigger calls then that by him that have ended up happening.

hawker
04-14-2006, 07:56 AM
Have done my other previews for the Round and so far have come up with the following plays.

Richmond +46.5

Western -11.5

Still doing my previews for the last 2 games but more then likely a play on the Kangaroos.

Mr Flamboyant
04-15-2006, 02:40 AM
Notice Hawker likes Richmond with 46.5 start against the Eagles.. Any other takers ? Don't normally like taking teams I don't think are a chance to actually win the game to hold onto a start (although there were some gift lines on exaclty that in the commonwealth games basketball and netball which proved profitable)but Richmond don't quite appear to be lambs to the slaughter in this game given their effort last round along with West Coast's game in Adelaide which must have taken a bit out of them mentally more than anything. Could be a slight letdown this week with the Eagles not quite at their best..?

sports freak
04-15-2006, 04:04 AM
Notice Hawker likes Richmond with 46.5 start against the Eagles.. Any other takers ? Don't normally like taking teams I don't think are a chance to actually win the game to hold onto a start (although there were some gift lines on exaclty that in the commonwealth games basketball and netball which proved profitable)but Richmond don't quite appear to be lambs to the slaughter in this game given their effort last round along with West Coast's game in Adelaide which must have taken a bit out of them mentally more than anything. Could be a slight letdown this week with the Eagles not quite at their best..?

Eagles 1-40 could be value or Richmonds +46.5pts cos the last time these 2 teams played in Subi,the Tigers came out firing an took on their opponents with no respect!!Therefor the + pts are value imo n Richo could go off!!!Richo midfileders did take it up to Eagles last time which was in good stead for them through that game!!!

bad gambler
04-15-2006, 04:08 AM
When has Sydney ever had a good start to the season in the past few years?

Another case of over reaction, they will make their customary run mid season and make the top 8 easily

sports freak
04-15-2006, 04:09 AM
Sam talks a hell of alot of shit man, but fuck he knows his stuff with footy.

I seen bigger calls then that by him that have ended up happening.


So have i but still some of those shit dont happen either,Dermie knows his stuff but he doesnt go talking shit about it!!Not giving to Sam cos i love the guy n is good for the game!!!Anyway lets get back to footy btw like ur 2 pics (Rich +,Dogs -) alot aswell!!

sports freak
04-15-2006, 04:11 AM
When has Sydney ever had a good start to the season in the past few years?

Another case of over reaction, they will make their customary run mid season and make the top 8 easily

Ty BG,someone knows there footy!!!!They will start 2nite!!!

Mr Flamboyant
04-15-2006, 04:21 AM
Hmmm..Well what I DO KNOW is that West Coast will win, so I'll take them and Geelong with something else .. Possibly Penrith in the NRL tonight

sports freak
04-15-2006, 04:25 AM
Hmmm..Well what I DO KNOW is that West Coast will win, so I'll take them and Geelong with something else .. Possibly Penrith in the NRL tonight

Panthers = GOLDMINE

Mr Flamboyant
04-15-2006, 07:31 AM
Wow what a performance by the Hawks .. Hope there were a few takers on the +41.5..? Watching this game (and yet to make a play this weekend) I'm suddenly tempted to consider Richmond with 45 start agianst West Coast. Only doubt being the Tigers capacity to capitulate (compared to the Hawks competitiveness), but just feel the Eagles might be a little 'low' after last weekend's trip to Adelaide.. thoughts?

See there are a few brave Swans backers tonight.. Good Luck gentlemen, you possess nerves of steel, but I just have a gut feeling they'll break out of their funk tonight. Taking them under 39.5 would make sense.

bossboss
04-15-2006, 02:19 PM
i like one bet so far.. Hawthorn +41.5 at $1.9

i know geelong won the first 2 rounds with more than that margin .. but they can't do it forever.
Scarlett is out for 2.. Mark Williams will have a party after been quite week against pies.
Hawthorn can hand the small forward line of Geelong including Kingsley .. they had problems with Big strong Rocca.


BET won heavily

bossboss
04-15-2006, 02:21 PM
Wow what a performance by the Hawks .. Hope there were a few takers on the +41.5..? Watching this game (and yet to make a play this weekend) I'm suddenly tempted to consider Richmond with 45 start agianst West Coast.


i had them for Richmond +45.5 to lose by 0.5 point.. but at least i won with Hawthorn one

hawker
04-16-2006, 01:39 AM
OO WHERE A HAPPY TEAM AT HAWTHORN!!!!!!!!


boy am i glad to get the early line on richmond, the line did move alot before the game to as far in as +43.5 I think.

So hopefully anyone on them got the +46.5 (scrapes in by half point)

Mr Flamboyant
04-16-2006, 02:18 AM
Wow .. West Coast by 46 points! Geez there'd be a few TAB Sportsbet punters down in the mouth today because they were pretty heavily supported with 45.5 start (from $1.85 into $1.75).. Well done Hawker for snapping up the extra coupla points!!

sports freak
04-16-2006, 03:49 AM
Just the one play 2day,playing it safe but big!!!!

50 units on Western Bulldogs ML @ 1.60 over Essendon Bombers- Too much run n gun for the Doggies imo!!!!Should cover -11.5 pts imo!!!Was tempted to add Port ML @ 1.37

Good luck,other leans on Melbourne +16.5/Port -19.5!!!!

Finns4
04-16-2006, 03:59 AM
Im never one 2 back against the Bombers @ home so ill pass,

Only like the look of Port ML and Freeo +19.5

sports freak
04-16-2006, 04:08 AM
Im never one 2 back against the Bombers @ home so ill pass,

Only like the look of Port ML and Freeo +19.5

The Stinkin Bombers???

Finns4
04-16-2006, 04:12 AM
Yeh tge stikin Bomberssss thats justtt meeee lol Dont take my advice i like your bet ;) i just hav voodoo history

Mr Flamboyant
04-16-2006, 04:23 AM
Good luck Sports Freak .. Reeeeeally wanna play the dogs at the head to head as well. In-form, kicking plenty of goals, should run a team like Essendon ragged.. Don't think I will though coz just have a 'thing' with unproven sides when it comes to them winning three straight.. But chances are the Dogs will make a monkey outa me by running riot again and being three-zip in a coupla hours..! Hope so..

sports freak
04-16-2006, 04:25 AM
Yeh tge stikin Bomberssss thats justtt meeee lol Dont take my advice i like your bet ;) i just hav voodoo history

Dont worry mate,i got voodoo history aswell,Hawks beat Bombers last yr for the first time in the last 10 attempts n thought it will never happen,to be honest im suprised the Dogs have that bad record against the Dons,i think back then they were definetely under sized n just got man handle now the boys ahve turned into men n they will show it 2day imo!!!

sports freak
04-16-2006, 04:27 AM
Good luck Sports Freak .. Reeeeeally wanna play the dogs at the head to head as well. In-form, kicking plenty of goals, should run a team like Essendon ragged.. Don't think I will though coz just have a 'thing' with unproven sides when it comes to them winning three straight.. But chances are the Dogs will make a monkey outa me by running riot again and being three-zip in a coupla hours..! Hope so..

You have absolutely read my mind Flamb,said it all n the end of the day i see no different!!!

Mr Flamboyant
04-16-2006, 04:38 AM
Oh look, at the end of the day it's a good punt. You're backing a team sky high on confidence, form and points.. Plug em in and let play.. IMO makes a whole lot more sense than taking a leap of faith so to speak on a side that's struggling to 'come good' .. ala Sydney last night.. Sure they won but gee they would've given their backers some heart palpitations!

sports freak
04-16-2006, 05:41 AM
Essendon 28-26 Bulldogs almost end of 1st quarter,lets go Dogs start running n gunning!!

Mr Flamboyant
04-16-2006, 02:48 PM
Monday afternoon .. a bit on the Bulldogs (NRL straight up vs Souths) X Kangaroos under 39.5 @ $3.06 as well as the Bulldogs X Collingwood under 39.5 @ 2.83 .. In short, as long as the Bulldogs take care of business and the AFL contest is decided in the <39.5 range the play comes out in front.. Thoughts??

bad gambler
04-17-2006, 04:19 AM
Collingwood to beat Roos - $2.00

gl

sports freak
04-17-2006, 04:52 AM
Monday afternoon .. a bit on the Bulldogs (NRL straight up vs Souths) X Kangaroos under 39.5 @ $3.06 as well as the Bulldogs X Collingwood under 39.5 @ 2.83 .. In short, as long as the Bulldogs take care of business and the AFL contest is decided in the <39.5 range the play comes out in front.. Thoughts??


Yeah thats looks very good Flamb,thought you wouldve juiced it up by having either team 1-19 which would pay around $4 into dogs,see this game not seperated by more then 3 goals imo!!!Pies to me have the upper hand with form,but with the ShinBoners spirit n apparently its their home game 2day!!!I feel
its gonna be another ripper with maybe 1 or 2 goals in it!!!

sports freak
04-17-2006, 04:58 AM
Different sort of matchup for the Pies vs Kangas then Pies vs Hawks,Roos have the back men to stop the Pies forwards and their midfield is more then capable of getting enough ball,also Roos have smart players n they dont give the ball up that easy,looking for Daniel Wells to have a blinder!!!Harvey to pop a few through,Roos have some big timber at the back with Watts,Hays,Brown and there are some speed men who are more then capable of keeping up with the Pies!!!

bad gambler
04-17-2006, 10:08 AM
Collingwood to beat Roos - $2.00

gl


too easy