AFL - Round TWO [Archive] -

AFL - Round TWO

04-05-2006, 01:01 AM
Round Two ..

Friday April 7
Richmond v St. Kilda , Telstra Dome, 7.40pm
Saturday April 8
Geelong v Kangaroos, Skilled Stadium, 2.10pm
Western Bulldogs v Melbourne, Telstra Dome, 2.10pm
Brisbane Lions v Essendon, Gabba, 7.10pm
Fremantle v Carlton, Subiaco, 7.40pm
Sunday April 9
Sydney v Port Adelaide, SCG, 1.10pm
Hawthorn v Collingwood, Telstra Dome, 2.10pm
Adelaide v West Coast, AAMI Stadium, 3.10pm

Odds from Centerbet
4.75 Richmond v St. Kilda 1.19
1.32 Geelong v Kangaroos 3.4
1.57 Western Bulldogs v Melbourne 2.4
1.7 Brisbane Lions v Essendon 2.15
1.32 Fremantle v Carlton 3.4
1.32 Sydney v Port Adelaide 3.4
2 Hawthorn v Collingwood 1.8
1.53 Adelaide v West Coast 2.5

04-05-2006, 01:56 AM
St Kilda, Bulldogs at the line, Essendon, Carlton all value

04-05-2006, 05:21 AM
Liking Essendon and West Coast atm.

04-05-2006, 06:04 AM
Essendon would be a good bet.

Mr Flamboyant
04-05-2006, 06:17 AM
Personally liking the $1.60 (tab sportsbet) about Adelaide to beat West Coast at home..

Huge advantage for the Crows playing at AAMI stadium, and the Eagles are bit suspect away from their Subiaco fortress.

Mr Flamboyant
04-05-2006, 07:30 AM
Get a good piece of the $1.72 about Brisbane to beat Essendon, if, as printed today, Bombers skipper James Hird is going to sit out the match due to that calf injury.

Sure you can't back the Lions on form, but first game at the Gabba, looking to bounce back from last weekend's embarrassment, they'll give good value for money.

04-05-2006, 01:12 PM
St Kilda vs Richmond
Just about marked this down as a play already this early in the week.

Looking to take the Saints at the Large line of -32.5 here.

Richmond are coming off an absolute shalacking to Western Bulldogs by 115 points last week where they were really struggling to score then have to face St Kilda who have been known to rarely lose at Telstra just the next week.

Richmond have no scoring options at all, Richo was unseen, Browny well give him time, only glimses i sore were a couple good plays from Delidio. Ok your aloud to have a bad week down forward but without Richo kicking a bag what hope do they have, he hasnt got the best form of kciking them against ST Kilda.

St Kilda are coming off a first up Interstate loss to West Coast, St Kilda have never been able to travel interstate anyway so we can neally scrap this game altogether which isnt a bad showing against a West Coast side at home.

Now there back at the Dome this week and thelast 5 outings against Richmond have all been 40+ wins at an average of 62 points including 4 at the Dome. Must add 2 of those wins were at night and by 68 and 80 points.

People were probably say what about a slow start that some sides have well Saints have been able to give the Tigers floggings the last 2 years just early on in Rounds 3 and 5 so there shouldnt be to much of a problem against a side thats come out with a 115 point loss.

Last 5 games Sainters played at the Dome have been won by an average of 71 points

Richmond should really struggle up forward I think and will be lucky to score 10 goals. St Kilda rarely get get under 100 points at the Dome so should get atleast a 40 point win.

St Kilda have alot more scoring options and Milny is one that always chips in against the Tigers so expect 3 or 4 from him. Gehrig and Reiwoldt will be big focus points aswell and Tigers shouldnt have enough quality backmen to line up on them all.

Anyway I feel I have come up with enough stats and facts here to give myself a play on the Sainters unless i see something that really puts me off before Friday.

St Kilda -32.5 @ Best Odds On Offer

04-05-2006, 01:13 PM
havent looked to much into the other games as yet but the same as Mr Flamboyant thinking Adelaide should be some value at home vs West Coast

04-05-2006, 01:52 PM
hawker, beware of the wounded team is my only warning. I too think Saints will win but that's a very large line and Carlton a few years ago 3 times were beaten by 100 points and 3 times won the next week. There was an article in the Herald Sun about Terry Wallace teams bouncing back the next week.

04-05-2006, 11:38 PM
Hi gahh thanks for the input mate, yes it does seem they tend to bounce back, I have enough reasons with this one to have a bet on it though, I think alot more in my favour, not saying its 100% play or nothing though.

Some question the week after Perth theory to, in all I think its a MYTH, look back at the records and you will find that will definately apply to teams only off a 6 day break, but any more they are right.

Saints have had 8 days which is what they had last year Round 21 when having to come back and face Brisbane they beat them by 139 points.

Anyway that is a very good fact about the 100+ floggiings thanks for bringing that one up.

04-06-2006, 02:43 AM
like one bet this week.. Essendon over Brisbane .. Even without James Hird.. their NAB cup (2 weeks ago) was very close. Brisbane last week at Geelong were crap.. on the other hand Essendon win was great over Sydney

depending on the outcome of this game .. i might play adelaide over WCEagles

bad gambler
04-06-2006, 02:54 AM
Crows will mail it in

04-07-2006, 01:11 AM
Geelong vs Kangaroos

Last time these two sides met it was Geelong by a whopping 85 points with the time before the cats by 10. Before this though Kangaroos did have an impressive record at SS winning 6 of 7.

Both teams are coming of impressive wins last week with the Roos knocking off Port at AAMI by 41 points and Geelong beat Brisbane at SS by 77 points to cap of a great start to the season winning the NAB cup at home.

There is word that there could be a little bit of rain at SS, if the case expect a low scoring match that these 2 teams often provide against each other already.
Kangaroos really are a team that trouble alot of top 4 teams but often fail to just fall short, just look at last year for example.

Expecting a very tough close game that Im not betting on. Lean towards a Geelong victory but wont be surprised to see the Roos stay with in the line of 21.5

Melbourne has had the edge over the doggies in the past winning there last 4 times and 8 of their last 10 games. Interesting fact here is that in all 10 games the margin has been under 40.

Melbourne dont have the best record at the Dome though but interestingly enough do seem to play much better in the day time there winning there previous 4 games there all by under the 40 point margin.

They have continued there form from the 2nd half of last year with a very dissapointing first round against wodden spoon favourites at the time Carlton. Melbourne are probably the biggest up and down team in the competition, but the Demons do have alot of weapons up forward so it relies alot on who fires on the day.

Western miggt not have the best record in the past against Melbourne but they also were never playing this hard running fast style of Football that they are playing right now that the best in the comp are finding hard to keep up with.

Western at the Dome have been posting massive scores including 167 in there 115 point win last week vs Richmond and are just loving the Telstra Dome, have won there last 6 at the Dome by an avg of 42 points and kicking an average score of 137 points.

Scotty West is a player I must mention here after his BOG last week with 33 possies. West has also been the leading possie getter for the dogs last 4 times they played Melbourne and leader on the ground in 3 of them. Look for him in most disposal betting.

Do expect some improvement from Melbourne which should be a high scoring game though the Dogs will continue there hot form to get across the line here and at the Dome couldnt back against them.

Looking further into play on Dogs Line
Look for value on Scotty West in possesion betting

sports freak
04-07-2006, 11:17 PM
Agree, Crows will make the Eagles look like boys 2nite,best bet of the week with the Bulldogs money train IMO!!!!Also leaning on B52 Bombers to take down the old n ravage Lions while my team the Hawks are in for a ripper against the Pies (lean on Collingwood)

Crows -12.5pts over Eagles
Bulldogs -11.5 over Dees
Bombers +5.5 over Lions

04-08-2006, 01:32 AM
Was a shocking effort by ST Kilda last night, none of there big guns up forward fired and they missed so many easy shots at goal, they still got across the line though.

Must say credit for both teams being so hard at the ball though.

Anyway on to the rest of the round. :D

By the way already taken

Sydney < 39.5 @ 2.35
Adelaide < 39.5 @ 2.35

bad gambler
04-08-2006, 10:10 PM
Magpies to beat the Hawks - $1.91


dave nz
04-09-2006, 12:10 AM
First two bets on the weekend on AFL :

Adelaide -12.5 (-135) over WC------------2.5 units

Hawthorn ML (+100) over Collingwood-----------1 unit



sports freak
04-09-2006, 01:03 AM

40 units on Adeliade Crows ML @ 1.46/Sydney Swans ML @ 1.29 = 1.88 over West Coast Eagles/Port Adelaide Power- Feel both teams should win comfortable n cover the spread but playin safe on the ML!!!!

Strong Lean on the Pies against the Hawks!!!!

Mr Flamboyant
04-09-2006, 03:06 AM
Went with Fremantle - Adelaide @ $1.75 .. One down one to go .. Adelaide have been backed for plenty. Started the week @ $1.60, and are $1.38 at present. Giving away 12.5 start they're down to $1.65 ..

Carn' the Crows..!

bad gambler
04-09-2006, 04:06 AM
The ML for the Eagles is bordering on the ridiculous, so going to have a small bet on it


West Coast to beat Adelaide - $3.00


bad gambler
04-09-2006, 06:30 AM
Magpies to beat the Hawks - $1.91



Mr Flamboyant
04-09-2006, 07:03 AM
Crows are shot units ..

bad gambler
04-09-2006, 09:23 AM
The ML for the Eagles is bordering on the ridiculous, so going to have a small bet on it


West Coast to beat Adelaide - $3.00


Eagles did their best to choke that one away


04-10-2006, 12:09 AM
like one bet this week.. Essendon over Brisbane .. Even without James Hird.. their NAB cup (2 weeks ago) was very close. Brisbane last week at Geelong were crap.. on the other hand Essendon win was great over Sydney

depending on the outcome of this game .. i might play adelaide over WCEagles

lost both .. but won big on Collingwood/hawthorn under 39.5 .. on some stage collingwood were up 48 points .. Rocca with 8 goals .. until it ended with margin 35