AFL Round one [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

AFL Round one

bossboss
03-27-2006, 04:47 AM
AFL is back

Round one .. Home teams first

1.55 West Coast St Kilda 2.4
1.7 Western Bulldogs Richmond 2.1
1.47 Geelong Brisbane Lions 2.6
1.72 Essendon Sydney 2.05
1.14 Port Adelaide Kangaroos 2.6
1.95 Hawthorn Fremantle 1.8
1.28 Melbourne Carlton 3.5
2.25 Collingwood Adelaide 1.6


starts Thursday 30 March

Mr Flamboyant
03-27-2006, 10:13 AM
St Kilda, Sydney, Kangaroos n' Carlton all good value ..

andrew057
03-27-2006, 11:02 AM
Nothing too big this early in the season but am looking at

Geelong x Melbourne


BTW guys, both feel free to join the AFL tipping comp.

Mr Flamboyant
03-27-2006, 11:19 AM
Hey a little off the subject here Andrew, but do you know how to get the 'avatar' (ie the picture that should(!) appear below your name if you choose one) to show..? I've selected one but as you can see it won't show..! :confused:

andrew057
03-27-2006, 11:23 AM
Hey a little off the subject here Andrew, but do you know how to get the 'avatar' (ie the picture that should(!) appear below your name if you choose one) to show..? I've selected one but as you can see it won't show..! :confused:

Sorry bro, i havent exactly worked it out. Ive tried a few times to put a picture in my avater but it keeps telling me the files too big and the dimensions are too large. I change them and it still doesnt work, so im probably not the best guy to ask.

Mr Flamboyant
03-27-2006, 11:27 AM
Cheers anyway!! trying to get the 'Hoff' in there ..

bossboss
03-27-2006, 09:12 PM
my verdict : very early in the season.. all games can go either way ..NAB cup didn't say much..

I will be going for some under 39.5 especially for :
Essendon X Sydney
Hawthorn X Freo
Bulldogs X Richmond

stonkvflash
03-29-2006, 08:43 AM
carlton +39.5 on Centrebet is the bet of the weekend.

you can couple them up with Brisbane +39.5 as well,

and Hawthorn for that matter.

:)

bad gambler
03-29-2006, 09:00 AM
carlton +39.5 on Centrebet is the bet of the weekend.

you can couple them up with Brisbane +39.5 as well,

and Hawthorn for that matter.

:)


Only boys bet with +39.5 margins, men bet with reference to the quoted spread

I was expecting more from you stony

Mr Flamboyant
03-29-2006, 09:10 AM
Yep, Andrew and bossboss .. Like the Geelong - Melbourne double .. Probably around $1.85 .. Cats' home ground advantage is significant and Brisbane always struggle there.. And Carlton, well they're Carlton and Melbourne will again be keen to hit the ground running early in a season ..

What are the thoughts on West Coast v StKilda .. ? Both teams have had plenty of time to get their houses in order for this one having been bundled out of the NAB Cup nice and early .. Home ground factor is always huge for WA teams .. It almost makes West Coast look like reasonably good value at $1.52 because chances are you get them anywhere near that price at Subiaco for the rest of the season ..

andrew057
03-29-2006, 10:13 AM
I think the odds for West Coast v St Kilda are spot on, I wont be betting there.

andrew057
03-29-2006, 10:59 AM
Also a reminder, everyone in the MTF AFL tipping competition, it starts TOMORROW. Tips need to be in 8.40pm Thrusday.

bad gambler
03-29-2006, 11:02 AM
Hard to tip against the eagles in Subi, regardless of all their off field dramas pre season

hawker
03-30-2006, 01:58 AM
I wont be betting on tonights match either, great just to have footy back again.

Remember early on the season alot of upsets happen so pace yourself for the first few weeks and definately look for that value in the underdog

SadrieL
03-30-2006, 05:03 AM
Saints!!!

dave nz
03-30-2006, 06:13 AM
Good to have the season here. Will be easing my way back into it punting wise.

Have one tonight :




St Kilda +13.5 over WC------------1 unit






gl

dave

hawker
03-30-2006, 06:17 AM
good luck with that one dave :D

dave nz
03-30-2006, 07:09 AM
Thanks Hawker :)

sports freak
03-30-2006, 07:38 AM
Good to have the season here. Will be easing my way back into it punting wise.

Have one tonight :




St Kilda +13.5 over WC------------1 unit






gl

dave


Good luck Dave,gonna tail ya on this one!!like it aswell all the best!!!

bad gambler
03-30-2006, 07:51 AM
Agree with everyone when you say it's hard to gauge the teams so early in the season, so will tread lightly tonight as well


West Coast to cover -12.5 v St Kilda - $1.90

good luck

andrew057
03-30-2006, 08:02 AM
West Coast vs. St Kilda U/167 @ $3.20

GL everyone.

SadrieL
03-30-2006, 08:25 AM
West Coast -11.5 for me

b_boy
03-30-2006, 08:36 AM
westcoast ML @ 1.55

gl :wavey:

SadrieL
03-30-2006, 08:41 AM
Where is this game being televised?

b_boy
03-30-2006, 08:52 AM
listen live from radio links at www.afl.com.au

Mr Flamboyant
03-30-2006, 08:59 AM
West Coast straight up .. $1.50 ..

SadrieL
03-30-2006, 10:25 AM
62-32, Eagles back to their usual ways.

Mr Flamboyant
03-30-2006, 10:27 AM
Hard to see Saints overturning that deficit from here..

SadrieL
03-30-2006, 10:32 AM
63-45 now come on Eagles

SadrieL
03-30-2006, 10:45 AM
71-59 piss off Saints

Mr Flamboyant
03-30-2006, 10:46 AM
I've fair dinkum just given West Coast the kiss of death!!

SadrieL
03-30-2006, 10:46 AM
77-59 goooo Eagles

Mr Flamboyant
03-30-2006, 10:49 AM
Three quarter time yet?

Mr Flamboyant
03-30-2006, 11:04 AM
First goal of the final term is huge ..

Mr Flamboyant
03-30-2006, 11:06 AM
Andrew's under 167 looked dead in the water at three quarter time, but no score for nine minutes!

$@M
03-30-2006, 11:10 AM
80-65 ... Eagles will hang on to the win... but will they cover?

Mr Flamboyant
03-30-2006, 11:18 AM
That's why I hate margins and lines .. ! West Coast 82 - 66 .. 24 minutes gone final term..

Mr Flamboyant
03-30-2006, 11:25 AM
Fulltime .. West Coast win 84 - 66 .. 1 & 0 afl season ..

bad gambler
03-30-2006, 11:29 AM
Agree with everyone when you say it's hard to gauge the teams so early in the season, so will tread lightly tonight as well


West Coast to cover -12.5 v St Kilda - $1.90

good luck


Saints will be good for a few blowout wins at the Dome but that is about it

bet won

Mr Flamboyant
03-30-2006, 11:33 AM
Nerves of steel BG .. Did you consider playing Eagles at under 39.5..($2.20) ..?

dave nz
03-30-2006, 11:36 AM
Good to have the season here. Will be easing my way back into it punting wise.

Have one tonight :




St Kilda +13.5 over WC------------1 unit






gl

dave


Chicken feed bet losses.

Back tomorrow, or the next day to try and work my way into a profitable round.

bad gambler
03-30-2006, 11:36 AM
Nerves of steel BG .. Did you consider playing Eagles at under 39.5..($2.20) ..?


lol, one look at the saints record over in perth over their last several games - i didn't think that bet was safe :silly:

Mr Flamboyant
03-30-2006, 11:48 AM
Yep, must admit it's what turned me off as well .. Always prefer to bet on options where there's only two possible outcomes rather than four ..

bad gambler
03-30-2006, 11:52 AM
agree - i have enough trouble as it is selecting the winner from 2 ATS options, 4 just complicates things with a marginally better return. I will only play it if i am supremely confident about the result.

Mr Flamboyant
03-30-2006, 12:03 PM
And there's nothing worse than when the team you want to win wins but misses the margin or spread by .5 of point .. as used to happen all too often ..

gahh
03-30-2006, 12:22 PM
Agree with everyone when you say it's hard to gauge the teams so early in the season, so will tread lightly tonight as well


West Coast to cover -12.5 v St Kilda - $1.90

good luck

Had the same bet as you bg, tied in with Geelong and the Kangaroos in a multi.

Was pretty stressed at the end, a goal by the Saints would have knocked us out

hawker
03-30-2006, 01:12 PM
Well done to all Eagles Betters tonight, very close to the line though and as I thought glad i steered clear of the opener.

Ive always thought so much of Daniel Kerr by the way but tell the boy to learn to kick with his left.

L James
03-30-2006, 02:10 PM
AFL is easy money :yeah:

andrew057
03-30-2006, 03:58 PM
Andrew's under 167 looked dead in the water at three quarter time, but no score for nine minutes!

;)

andrew057
03-30-2006, 04:01 PM
West Coast vs. St Kilda U/167 @ $3.20

GL everyone.

Nice win @ good odds :) Hopefully can get a few more by seasons end.

Congrats to all the West Coast backers.

b_boy
03-30-2006, 07:20 PM
westcoast ML @ 1.55

gl :wavey:

won

:cool:

andrew057
03-31-2006, 03:57 AM
Western Bulldogs -4.5 (5 Units)

Essendon -2.5 (1 Unit)

Kangaroos +11.5 (1 Unit)

$@M
03-31-2006, 05:48 AM
Bulldogs ML @ 1.82 :yeah:

hawker
03-31-2006, 06:04 AM
Western vs Richmond
This should be a great game to watch tonight and good to see Nathan Brown back with such a quick recovery after breaking his leg last year. The spotlight tonight though could lie alot in the hands of the full forward for the tigers though. Richo has scored 20 goals in the last 3 games vs the Doggies and could be the big key on giving the tigers a chance. His gonna need plenty of supply from Tucky and Johnson who I think will both have big games aswell.

Doggies are and up and coming side and they proved at the end of last year that they dont need Darcy to win games. They are a fast hard running side that use the Telstra Dome to its full potential. They won 7 of there last 8 matches there last year averaging a whopping 127 points, thats a massive score for any team to match and tigers dont have enough blokes up forward to do it.

My First Pick the Season

1 unit Western Bulldogs $1.92

By the way my other picks so far for the round are
1 unit Port $1.65
1 unit Adelaide -7.5 $1.92

andrew057
03-31-2006, 06:16 AM
Lets cash it Sam and Hawker :)

SadrieL
03-31-2006, 07:35 AM
Tigers for me

$@M
03-31-2006, 10:11 AM
Bulldogs ML @ 1.82 :yeah:
too easy... :cool:

Hawker, where did u get 1.92 ???

andrew057
03-31-2006, 02:18 PM
too easy... :cool:

Hawker, where did u get 1.92 ???

I got $1.89 at pinnacle

sports freak
03-31-2006, 11:27 PM
Congrats guys on the Doggies,nice call!!!!

Leaning on Brisbane Lions +15.5pts over Geelong Pussycats,feel there could be an upsets when ever Cats are favoured to win!!Matchup wise i do like the Lions midfield!!!

Best bet for 2day will have to be the Bombers pk over Swans IMO,Lloyd,s 1st game as captain should be a good one!!!

tt boy
04-01-2006, 05:39 AM
Geelong 17.13.(115) def. Brisbane Lions 5.8.(38) :eek: http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/112/guillotine8ze.gif

dave nz
04-01-2006, 10:20 AM
Good job all lots of winners :)

Havn't posted mine but am happy to say have gone 3-0 since my loss on the Saints.

Bulldogs ML, Essendon ML and the Kangas +10.5......thank you come again.

sports freak
04-02-2006, 12:07 AM
Good job all lots of winners :)

Havn't posted mine but am happy to say have gone 3-0 since my loss on the Saints.

Bulldogs ML, Essendon ML and the Kangas +10.5......thank you come again.

Nice Dave,i was spewing i missed out on the Kangas,not a bad team this yr if they get things right!!!

sports freak
04-02-2006, 12:16 AM
Want to pull the trigger soo bad on my Hawks,feel they will come out to play 2day!!!Love their midfield atm n should get plenty of supply with Hodge running amok n Crawford,Mitchell,Bateman getting among the action,gotta love it!!!!

Leaning on Hawks +5.5pts,may pull trigger later!!!Also liking Demons-22.5 to crush the hapless Blues,if it wasnt Kuta's 250th this margin will be around 100pts,Blues are worst then Tigers n thats scary shit!!!

hawker
04-02-2006, 01:00 AM
too easy... :cool:

Hawker, where did u get 1.92 ???

snapped some of that up on betfair mate. :)

was a great win by the doggies.

hawker
04-02-2006, 01:01 AM
Hawthorn/Fremantle
Another game where initial thoughts were with Fremantle though there were enough signs to put me off them in the end.

Yes they do seem to have a fantastic list up forward but opening the season away from home is a major factor as they still have trouble proving that they can win away, they did improve a little last year winning 4 from 10.

The major factors here not to go with the dockers though is the Hawks have beaten the dockers last 3 times and a 12-4 record overall vs them. Add to the fact that Fremantle never won at aurora with 3 of there 4 losses to the hawks.

Fremantle do have the much better side on paper but this is a game I will be happy to stick clear of punting wise.


Melbourne/Carlton
Not alot of comments on this one, I just dont know what Melbourne side is going to come out they are such and up and down side, they are the shortest fav of the round but they the time of side that could lose it or win by 100 points.

Leave this one alone.

Collingwood/Adelaide
Collingwood I feel will be one the biggest improvers this year, everyone is fit and no injuries to start the season and the draw is favourble to them in the first 6 or so weeks to allow them to get off to a flyer if they can put it together. Ok now lets not talk it up to much untill we lkook further into this team they are playing.

This first game is going to be the big tester for collingwood, the last time these 2 teams met was Round 21 of last year where adelaide thrashed them by 110 points at AAMI, part of a very very bad stretch for Collinwood. This is also the Adelaide team that went 17-5 last year and had the best record in the league interstate winning 7 of 11 games away from Adelaide, very very good record.

Adelaide have also won there last 3 games at the Telstra Dome all vs top 8 sides at the time. This is a side that really has the potential to go all the way this year.

I think collingwood are going to improve this year but first up to have to play Adelaide is going to be just to big of a task in my opinion and feel the line is a great bet on adelaide here.

1 unit Adelaide -7.5 $1.92

sports freak
04-02-2006, 01:27 AM
Hawthorn/Fremantle
Another game where initial thoughts were with Fremantle though there were enough signs to put me off them in the end.

Yes they do seem to have a fantastic list up forward but opening the season away from home is a major factor as they still have trouble proving that they can win away, they did improve a little last year winning 4 from 10.

The major factors here not to go with the dockers though is the Hawks have beaten the dockers last 3 times and a 12-4 record overall vs them. Add to the fact that Fremantle never won at aurora with 3 of there 4 losses to the hawks.

Fremantle do have the much better side on paper but this is a game I will be happy to stick clear of punting wise.


Melbourne/Carlton
Not alot of comments on this one, I just dont know what Melbourne side is going to come out they are such and up and down side, they are the shortest fav of the round but they the time of side that could lose it or win by 100 points.

Leave this one alone.

Collingwood/Adelaide
Collingwood I feel will be one the biggest improvers this year, everyone is fit and no injuries to start the season and the draw is favourble to them in the first 6 or so weeks to allow them to get off to a flyer if they can put it together. Ok now lets not talk it up to much untill we lkook further into this team they are playing.

This first game is going to be the big tester for collingwood, the last time these 2 teams met was Round 21 of last year where adelaide thrashed them by 110 points at AAMI, part of a very very bad stretch for Collinwood. This is also the Adelaide team that went 17-5 last year and had the best record in the league interstate winning 7 of 11 games away from Adelaide, very very good record.

Adelaide have also won there last 3 games at the Telstra Dome all vs top 8 sides at the time. This is a side that really has the potential to go all the way this year.

I think collingwood are going to improve this year but first up to have to play Adelaide is going to be just to big of a task in my opinion and feel the line is a great bet on adelaide here.

1 unit Adelaide -7.5 $1.92


Good luck mate,some nice writeups there!!Hawks midfiled should do the job 2day but like you said the list of Dockers are better,only cos they got a few more guys in their 3rd n 4th yrs!!Hawks are just a young team with no real direction!!!Didnt like the fact Hawks have beaten them last 3 times also the one i do remember quite well was the 40+ hiding we gave em in Fremantle,straight after that we went on to destroy the Lions in what was a unforgettable fortnight!!!Also beating the Dons last yr was a huge suprise although i did lose money on that game!!!!Pies are good for an upset win against the Crows,Pies were fully undermanned last time they played the Crows and the hiding was the case!!!Now fully strength with Tarrant,Rocca in good shape,they will be hard to beat!!!Crows have a formiddable record at the Dome,but Pies can go with em!!!


Hawks for me,and not just cos im a Loyal Hawks Supporter

sports freak
04-02-2006, 01:36 AM
Adding!!!

30 units on Hawthorn 2.10 over Fremantle Dockers- Love the Hawks when they are dogs,they beat Dockers by over 40+ in Freo last yr now they getting the pts playin at home in Tassie,wtf????is there somethin im missing,i hope not!!!!Hawks comfortably IMO!!

bad gambler
04-02-2006, 01:39 AM
I'm going to have a crack at the Hawks as well, taken them with the +5.5 spread

good luck

b_boy
04-02-2006, 01:48 AM
fremantle @ 1.72 (2 Unit)

gl

:wavey:

dave nz
04-02-2006, 03:01 AM
Add :



Fremantle ML (-140) over Hawthorn-------------1 unit






May have an add on the later game today too

$@M
04-02-2006, 05:11 AM
The Hawks are crushing the Dockers right now... 90-48 after 3rd quarter...

$@M
04-02-2006, 05:12 AM
5 units on Adelaide ML over Collingwood @ 1.62 tomorrow... ~ :yeah:

bad gambler
04-02-2006, 05:22 AM
I'm going to have a crack at the Hawks as well, taken them with the +5.5 spread

good luck


win

gahh
04-02-2006, 12:06 PM
Come on Blue boys!!!!

Had my biggest play of the year on Carlton +39.5 on Centrebet, paid $1.50 and needless to say was never in doubt.

Also had small losing play on Carlton by over 22.5 points, we won by 21. I'm not too sad about it I can tell you :D

Mr Flamboyant
04-03-2006, 02:08 AM
Anyone find a good reason to make a play on Adelaide this evening..? Collingwood are at full strength, at "home" and with plenty to prove, leaving this game in the 'prefer not to touch' category .. But on the flip side Adelaide are a good side .. thoughts..?

bad gambler
04-03-2006, 03:35 AM
Anyone find a good reason to make a play on Adelaide this evening..? Collingwood are at full strength, at "home" and with plenty to prove, leaving this game in the 'prefer not to touch' category .. But on the flip side Adelaide are a good side .. thoughts..?


Is riccutto playing?

Mr Flamboyant
04-03-2006, 06:39 AM
Yes, he's been included

bad gambler
04-03-2006, 06:49 AM
I'm leaning towards a collingwood S/U win tonight

Mr Flamboyant
04-03-2006, 07:00 AM
Yeah, I'm loathe to back teams away from home at the best of times, so i'll let this one go through to the keeper ..

One last possible play that caught my eye is total match points.. This is another option I rarely consider but with the line set at under / over 190.5 points I may be tempted .. Given Adelaide's defensive qualities and Collingwood's record as being anything but prolific in the points 'for' column, could a low scoring contest be on the cards?

Offsetting that is the fact the game's being played at Telstra Dome, which is a smallish ground and conducive to end-to-end matches .. thoughts?

bad gambler
04-03-2006, 07:33 AM
Going to make a play on this...

Collingwood to cover +8.5 v Adelaide - $1.91

&

Some coins on:

Pies to win by >24.5 - $4.50

good luck

bad gambler
04-03-2006, 07:34 AM
Yeah, I'm loathe to back teams away from home at the best of times, so i'll let this one go through to the keeper ..

One last possible play that caught my eye is total match points.. This is another option I rarely consider but with the line set at under / over 190.5 points I may be tempted .. Given Adelaide's defensive qualities and Collingwood's record as being anything but prolific in the points 'for' column, could a low scoring contest be on the cards?

Offsetting that is the fact the game's being played at Telstra Dome, which is a smallish ground and conducive to end-to-end matches .. thoughts?

I tend to stay away from totals betting in AFL, only because you are purely guessing, unless you have bad weather...so can't help there sorry

SadrieL
04-03-2006, 07:37 AM
GO THE PIES

gahh
04-03-2006, 08:07 AM
I've had a lot of success with Head-to-head possession bets this weekend, having another go tonight.

Big play on Goodwin to get more disposals than Licuria, $2.10 on Betfair

Also on McLeod to get more disposals than O'Bree at $2

andrew057
04-03-2006, 09:21 AM
5 mins in.

Ive got Adelaide -7.5, theyre just the better team simple as that and it should show tonight.

EDIT: Current score 7-6 Crows.

andrew057
04-03-2006, 10:26 AM
HT: 59-46 Crows


Pies had a 19 point leade early in the 2nd quarter.

andrew057
04-03-2006, 11:09 AM
78-77 Crows with a quarter to go, anybodies game.

andrew057
04-03-2006, 11:50 AM
Excellent quarter by the Crows keeping the Pies SCORELESS in the last quarter to win 111-77

gahh
04-03-2006, 01:05 PM
I've had a lot of success with Head-to-head possession bets this weekend, having another go tonight.

Big play on Goodwin to get more disposals than Licuria, $2.10 on Betfair

Also on McLeod to get more disposals than O'Bree at $2

Win and a loss, had more on Goodwin than McLeod though

$@M
04-03-2006, 02:00 PM
5 units on Adelaide ML over Collingwood @ 1.62 tomorrow... ~ :yeah:
:cool:

bad gambler
04-03-2006, 08:45 PM
Going to make a play on this...

Collingwood to cover +8.5 v Adelaide - $1.91

&

Some coins on:

Pies to win by >24.5 - $4.50

good luck


geez that last quarter was pathetic by the pies - still signs there that the young team could do well this season.

bet lost

hawker
04-04-2006, 03:00 AM
So happy that my boys the Hawks got a win first Round, Willo was brilliant once again with 8 and Croady showed some good signs up forward aswell. Betting wise went 2-1 for the round with a profit and am happy enough with that early on in the season

1 unit Western Bulldogs $1.92 :D
1 unit Port $1.65 :(
1 unit Adelaide -7.5 $1.92 :D

2-1 +0.84 units