Standing on Sunday November 16: (updated after final)
Rnk PRk Player Nat Pts PPt Max Add Nxt Rnd/Res/Opp
1 1 Andy Roddick USA 907 867 907 40 SF L Federer
2 3 Roger Federer SUI 875 725 875 150 F W Agassi
3 2 Juan Carlos Ferrero ESP 841 841 841 0
4 5 Andre Agassi USA 685 605 735 80 F L Federer#
5 4 Guillermo Coria ARG 666 646 666 20
6 6 Rainer Schuettler GER 641 601 641 40 SF L Agassi
7 7 Carlos Moya ESP 456 436 456 20
8 8 David Nalbandian ARG 412 392 412 20
Rnk = Ranking
PRk = Previous ranking (3/11)
Nat = Nationality
Pts = Points
PPt = Previous points (3/11)
Max = Maximum points he can get after Houston
Add = Points added this tournament
Nxt = Points if wins next match
Rnd = Round (RR = Round Robin, SF, F)
Res = Result (L = lost, W = won, v = versus)
Opp = Last/Next opponent
11-10-2003, 11:42 PM
With his win over Ferrero in the opening match on Monday, Nalbandian closed the gap from Moya in 7th place to 24 pts, but he still needs 2 more wins in the RR stage, or a win in the semifinal, to overtake him.
Ferrero's loss leaves him 26 pts behind Rodick, who can increase the gap to 46 points if he beat Moya tommorrow, but more important, Ferrero is now one loss away from elimination from the tournament, and subsequently from the race to #1 spot.
In the next match, Federer must win to keep his slim chance for #1 alive, and extend the gap from 4th place Coria to 99 pts, and put himself beyond Agassi's reach, so he can finish the year no lower than 5th (in fact, he is allready guarantied that, as both Agassi and Schuetler can't win the tournament). If Agassi win, he will get closer to Coria in 4th place and further from Schuettler in 6th, and retain his slim chance to overtake Federer in 3rd place.
11-10-2003, 11:51 PM
(in fact, he is allready guarantied that, as both Agassi and Schuetler can't win the tournament).
You mean two people can't win? Damn! :p
Seriously though thanks for the updates. Appreciate your research and number-crunching!
11-11-2003, 03:46 AM
Federer's thrilling win over Agassi has left him in the race for #1, but this could be over by this time tommorrow if Roddick beat Moya.
As previousely said, Agassi can no longer overtake Federer, and in order to pass Coria in 5th place he must reach the final, since 2 wins in his remaining RR matches will only bring him within 1 point of Coria. If Coria lose tommorrow to Schuettler, he will have to win the title to overtake Federer, so it seems Fed-Ex is almost certain to remain in 3rd place. Win for schuettler tommorrow will lift him above Agassi to 5th place, and maintain his mathematical chance to overtake Federer. If he loses, then like Agassi he will have to reach the final to overtake Coria, a very tough task considering that he will have to beat Roddick just to reach the semi.
If Moya somehow manage to beat Roddick tommorrow, he will regain his 44 pts lead over Nalbandian, and force David to reach the final to advance to 7th place.
At least for the next 2 days, the only possible change in the ranking is between Agassi and Shuettler...
11-11-2003, 09:02 PM
Schuettler's win over Coria in the 1st match on Tuesday put him above Agassi in a carreer-high #5 position, and reledgated Andre to 6th.
Schuettler is now 25 pts behind Coria, and in order to overtake him he should win 2 more matches in RR stage (against Roddick and Moya) or the semifinal. Schuettler also has a mathematical chance to overtake Federer in 3rd place, but that requires that he wins the title undefeated and Federer lose all his remaining matches.
Coria must now win the title to overtake Federer, and Fed-Ex can guaranty his 3rd place if he wins 2 RR matches or the semifinal.
Fedrerer will know in a few hours if he still has a chance for #1. If Roddick beats Moya, Roger's challenge for the top spot is over.
11-12-2003, 07:23 AM
Roddick extended his lead over Ferrero to 46 pts, but that's not enough yet to be significant. If Ferrero wins all his remaining matches, including the final, he'll be #1 regardless of what Roddick does.
But Roddick's win has officially eliminated Federer from the race to #1. Fed-Ex can still overtake Ferrero and get to #2.
Nothing has changed between Moya and Nalbandian. Nalby still need 2 more wins in the RR stage or win in the semi to overtake Moya.
11-12-2003, 12:05 PM
11-12-2003, 02:42 PM
11-12-2003, 03:42 PM
Too bad that Federer has already lost the chance to race for #1.......
11-12-2003, 03:44 PM
Methinks he really lost it in Montreal ;-)
or there again, the 4th round of the USO, or the semi in Madrid, or the qf in Paris....
Still, he'll have his chances again.
Ferrero better watch out though, another performance like the one the other night and that's goodbye to number one for him as well.
11-12-2003, 04:06 PM
I'd like to see Fed get a win in against Nalbandian. I don't really care for them both that much but seeing Federer's mental anguish against him is still heart-breaking lol.
11-12-2003, 08:16 PM
Federer's one-sided win over Nalbandian has strenghen his position in 3rd place. Schuettler can no longer overtake him, and Coria must win all his remaining matches to do so. Federer need another win to secure 3rd place. Fed-Ex still have chance to overtake Ferrero in #2: To do so, he should win the title undefeated, and Ferrero must not win more than one match (the evening match today against Agassi). If Ferrero beat Federer in their last RR match, JC guaranties himself the 2nd position.
Nalbandian's loss means he must now get to the final to overtake Moya.
11-13-2003, 07:37 AM
Ferrero's loss to Agassi makes him the 1st player eliminated from the semifinals, and since he now can't get more than 20 pts, Roddick's #1 year-end ranking is secured!
Win over Federer tomorrow, however, in an otherwise meaningless match for both players, will secure Ferrero in 2nd place and Federer could not get higher than 3rd.
Meanwhile, Agassi's win put him back in 5th place after just 30 hours behind Schuettler.
Schuettler can be back in 5th place if he beat Roddick in the afternoon, but his stay this time could be even more short if Agassi beat Nalbandian tonight. Both players are still 2 wins away from Coria in 4th place.
Coria plays Moya this afternoon as well, and if he loses, Federer is secured in 3rd place.
11-13-2003, 07:48 AM
Now I want Rogi to beat JCF to move closer to the no.2 spot! I wonder how would JCF play after all the things happened in his two previous matches.
11-13-2003, 10:40 AM
I hope Ferrero is aware of the importance of the match for him... in an interview after his loss to Agassi he said that he finished in #2... perhaps he doesn't know Federer can still overatke him, and that he (Ferrero) can stop him...
11-13-2003, 10:54 AM
thanks for the updates. I hope Ferrero goes out fighting.
11-13-2003, 04:33 PM
tangerine.....:haha: at your sig
11-13-2003, 08:26 PM
The flip-flop between Agassi and Schuettler continues. Schuettler's win over world #1 Roddick put him back in 5th place, which Agassi regained last night. But this time Schuttler's time at #5 could last only few hours, as win for Agassi over Nalbandian in the night match would put him back in #5.
Schuettler now need just one more win to overtake Coria in 4th place, but if Coria win his next match against Moya, which is about to start shortly, Schuettler will have to wait until the semifinal on Saturday for his chance to get to #4. If Agassi beat Nalbandian he will also be in a position to takeover Coria in #4 with a win in the semifinal, and his rival in the semi could be Schuettler... if that happends, only one of them would be able to pass Coria and therefor Guillermo won't drop to #6.
Win for Coria over Moya will also keep alive his slim chance to overtake Federer in #3, at least until Roger meet Ferrero tomorrow. Defeat for Coria will put him on the brink of elimination from the semifinals.
Roddick's loss means he can't reach 1000 points at the end of the year.
Let's take a look at the battle for #7 place... if Nalbandian beat Agassi tonight he will get to the semifinal, and win there could put him ahead of Moya in #7. Moya is in must-win situation in his upcoming match against Coria. If he wins this match and also the match against Schuettler tommorrow, Nalby will have to win the final to advance to #7.
11-13-2003, 11:31 PM
Very detailed update!!! Thanks a lot!! :)
11-14-2003, 12:10 AM
Coria's win over Moya confirmed that Schuttler has qualified to the SF, where he'll meet the winner of the night match between Agassi and Nalbandian. Moya was eliminated, and the winner of Coria vs Roddick tommorrow will qualify in 2nd place and meet Federer in the SF.
Coria has extended his lead over Schuettler to 25 pts, and therefor Schuettler must win the SF to overtake him. It's the same for Agassi, and since they could meet in the semifinal and only one can win, Coria can be no lower than 5th.
Moya's elimination mean that Nalbandian will be #7 if he reaches the final.
So far, the only place confirmed is Roddick's #1, but after Agassi-Nalbandian match either Agassi in #6 or Moya in 7th and Nalbandian in 8th will also be decided.
Positions 2 & 3 could be decided tommorrow, but for #4 and 5 we'll have to wait at least until Saturday.
11-14-2003, 08:02 AM
nit thanks for all your work - it's too bad that AR's place is already confirmed... that would have been great to seen it battelet out till the end...
11-14-2003, 08:40 AM
There is a good chance Federer's reward for finishing first in his group will be playing Roddick. I am sure he would prefer to play Schuettler in the semis although on current form he should have no problem beating Roddick.
11-14-2003, 07:11 PM
If you ask me... the best players so far are Federer and Agassi, and they are my favorites to reach the final...
But let's get back to business...
As expected, Schuettler's stay in #5 lasted just about 6 hours, until Agassi's win over Nalbandian last night put him back in 5th place and relegated Schuettler to 6th.
The loser of Agassi vs Schuettler semifinal on Saturday will end the year in #6. The winner will overtake Coria in 4th place, unless Guillermo beat Roddick tonight and Federer tommorrow and reach the final. If that happends, the winner in the final will end the year in #4 and the loser in #5. Which means that Coria must win the title to stay in #4, and otherwise he will be #5.
Schuettler is now on court in his last round-robin match against Moya. If he wins this match, Schuettler will once again pass Agassi into 5th place, but as far as the year-end ranking is concerned, this match is meaningless.
Earlier this afternoon (Houston time), Federer easily beat Ferrero and maintained his chance for the year-end #2, and secured himself the 3rd place.
Following Nalbandian's loss to Agassi last night, it was confirmed that he will end this year in #8 and Moya in #7, so the places left to be decided are 2nd and 3rd between Ferrero and Federer, 4th, 5th and 6th between Coria, Agassi and Schuettler.
Those places will be decided by the results of the semifinals and final:
If Federer win the SF (against Roddick or Coria) and the final he'll be #2 and Ferrero #3, otherwise he'll be #3 and Ferrero #2.
If Coria beat Roddick tonight, Federer tommorrow and either Agassi or Schuettler on Sunday he'll be #4, if he loses any match he'll be #5.
The loser between Agassi and Schuettler will be #6, the winner will be #4 if Coria is eliminated before the final. If Coria reaches the final, whoever wins on Sunday will be #4 and the loser will be #5.
11-14-2003, 08:40 PM
Actually, the Schuettler vs Moya match WAS significant. Because of his loss, Schuettler can't overtake Coria if he wins the SF and Coria lose in his semi, and so does Agassi, who could be edged out by Coria by 1 point!
But first, Coria has to beat Roddick this evening... if he doesn't, he'll end the year in #5 behind the winner of Agassi vs Schuettler, and ahead of the loser...
11-14-2003, 09:02 PM
thanks for the info :kiss:
11-15-2003, 08:14 AM
Rogi should really go for the no.2 spot so that he will have easier way next year to overtake Roddork. Keep going Rogi!
11-15-2003, 10:42 PM
The battle for places #4, 5 & 6 has finally settled. Agassi's win over Schuettler in the 1st semifinal lift him above Coria to 4th place, and left Schuettler in 6th.
That was enabled by Coria's loss to Roddick last night. If Coria had won, he would have stayed in 4th place, barely 1 point ahead of Agassi.
The only issue left to be resolved is the struggle for 2nd and 3rd places. If Federer wins the match in progress against Roddick, and the final against Agassi tommorrow afternoon, he will overtake Ferrero in #2, otherwise he'll stay in #3.
Of course, the Americans won't give up easily...
They have nothing to gain as far as the year-end ranking is concerned, but entry list points are at stake in Houston as well... If Roddick wins the title he'll build a massive 156 pts lead over Ferrero and 212 pts over Federer, that should keep him at the top throughout the 1st half of 2004. Win for Agassi may enable him to stay in 4th place if he fails to defend his AO title.
11-16-2003, 12:17 AM
Federer is one win away from 2nd place after a convincing win over Roddick in the 2nd semifinal.
Win tommorrow will also put him in good position to overtake Roddick in #1 after the Australian Open.
According to my calculation, if Federer win the final in Houston, he'll go to Melbourne 140 entry list points (equivalent of 28 champions race points)ahead of Roddick on "safe points", after the points they won at Melbourne this year are deducted (90 race points for Roddick, 30 for Federer).
Coria will be in good position to regain 4th place in Melbourne: He will defend only 30 pts against 200 for reigning champion Agassi. Even if Agassi wins tommorrow, he'll be 101 "safe points" behind Coria when they go to Melbourne. If he doesn't, he'll be 151 safe pts behind and nothing less than succesful defence of his title will keep him in 4th place. He might even fall behind Schuettler, despite the German having to defend his 140 runner-up pts. Moya, who has only 7 pts to lose in Melbourne, will also be in good position to climb above Schuettler and Agassi.
It's basically taking off all the points they have earned/need to defend.
For example, if Roger wins the final against Andre at TMC, he will add 50 points, and overtake Andy, after Andy's SF points and Roger's 4th rd. points are taken off from AO.
11-16-2003, 09:54 PM
I know what it meant, I just don't like thinking about the CR that way. I like keeping them separate, it's better for my mind LOL. I'd rather think about the ES that has the defending points and all that and just think of the CR as starting from 0
11-16-2003, 10:12 PM
Well sure. But technically it's easier this way. You're right about the ES, but the CR is just the ES divided by 5. So it's the same thing, really...just with smaller numbers to deal with.
11-16-2003, 10:21 PM
Of course the real champions race points from 2003 are not carried over to 2004...
It was just easier to calculate, since the ATP website doesn't give points breakdown in entry list points... you will get the "safe entry list points" if you multiply the CR points by 5...
Not only the points from AO were deducted, but also the points in tournaments before AO, for example Ferrero's 24 pts for runner-up in Sydney...
11-16-2003, 10:25 PM
oh ok, cool
11-17-2003, 12:22 PM
So, Federer won the Masters Cup, and finished 2003 in 2nd place in the ranking, just 32 pts behind Roddick.
When they go to Melbourne in 2 months time, Federer is likely to be ahead of Roddick on "safe points", which means if they both reach the same stage in AO, Federer will take over #1, with good chance to hold it until Wimbledon.
Roddick's only chance to stay ahead of Federer is to go to Doha on the 1st week of 2004 and win it. This will add 36 CR pts to his tally. If Federer do the same, he will gain only 25 pts, because he has better 5th optional result.
11-17-2003, 01:57 PM
That's very interesting. I wonder if Andy will do that.
But why Doha? There are warm-up tourneys in Australia/NZ. Don't they offer enough points?
11-17-2003, 02:37 PM
I don't think Andy is playing anything til that Kooyong exhibition. but nothing has been officially announced from his camp about next year's schedule. The only tournaments we know he's playing are where the tournament has announced (Scottsdale, Memphis, Houston, etc.).
Plus, playing in Doha is NOT the *only* way he can stay #1. If Andy were to do better than Roger at the AO he would still stay #1 and I mean it'll be the start of the season, we have no clue how either of them will do. And I don't think Andy will do anything out of the ordinary to keep his #1 (such as playing a tournament he wouldn't normally play), and nor should he, he should just play the best he can and try to make it to the same level or even further than the previous year :)
11-17-2003, 09:59 PM
Let me make it clear... these points are what players will have BEFORE the AO...
Of course if Roddick gets further than Federer in AO he'll regain #1...
Doha is the biggest tournament before AO, with prize money of 1M$ and 60 pts for the winner... the other tournaments have only 400K$ prizes and 35 pts for the winner.
11-17-2003, 11:18 PM
What I'm confused about with what you say is that Andy will "regain" it....but, why would he lose it? Andy only played sydney last year before the AO and it's not in his best countable since he lost in like the second round. So he doesn't have anything to defend til AO.
Or is there something I'm missing somewhere?
11-17-2003, 11:54 PM
The point is bunk, if you remove Roddick's and Federer's ranking points from the AO this year (which is what happens as soon as the tournament starts next year), Federer is provisionally no. 1 by virtue of losing fewer points. Whoever gets further in the AO gets no. 1, so in that sense Roddick would have to regain it since hypothetically he would lose it right at the beginning of the tournament.
11-18-2003, 12:02 AM
Ok I get it. I mean I got it all along, but I wasn't sure if there was something I was missing because of the specific terminology.