Rafa v Federer #1 discussion [Archive] - MensTennisForums.com

Rafa v Federer #1 discussion

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TheMightyFed
08-17-2005, 09:41 AM
We know that if Nadal won Cincy and Fed lost before the semis, Nadal would lead the Race. Now that Nadal is out...
For the good calculators of the board, what must happen on Federer and Nadal sides in USO for a change at the top ?

jtipson
08-17-2005, 10:08 AM
As far as I can see, the earliest possible change at the top now (in the entry rankings) would be Mon 2nd October (oops, make that Mon 3rd).

This would require Nadal to win the US Open and New Haven (or any other optional in September - he only has room for one more), Federer to do poorly this week and in New York and fail to reach the final in Bangkok.

TheMightyFed
08-17-2005, 10:18 AM
As far as I can see, the earliest possible change at the top now (in the entry rankings) would be Mon 2nd October.

This would require Nadal to win the US Open and New Haven (or any other optional in September - he only has room for one more), Federer to do poorly this week and in New York and fail to reach the final in Bangkok.
Good news, thanks. I think Fed can sleep well till November...

The Pro
08-17-2005, 11:09 AM
Bother! Just when I was starting to think .... what if......?

jenanun
08-17-2005, 11:20 AM
when? whenever, he will, eventually....

just a matter of whether he could beat hewitt's record (20yrs and 9 months... )
i.e. be no.1 before march 2007..

ClaycourtaZzZz.
08-17-2005, 11:28 AM
never.

LaTenista
08-17-2005, 03:50 PM
Rafa will not play New Haven but I believe he's going to Beijing for the China Open in September.

1sun
08-17-2005, 03:52 PM
well if he wins the us and roger loses 1st round, then he'll be no1 in the race

calimero
08-17-2005, 03:52 PM
MY GOD, Rogi will stay # 1 at least in Entry Ranking, and that's what really count!
I don't care that stupid Race!!

Beforehand
08-17-2005, 04:51 PM
If Roger wins Cincinnati, Rafael will be hard pressed to catch him, won't he?

Federer has not a single point from Paris or Madrid, and really only has a bundle of points from the U.S. Open. Nadal has no optionals left, if I'm not mistaken, so is it just a matter of Federer not imploding at the U.S. and putting some work in at his optionals in Basel and Bangkok?

jtipson
08-17-2005, 04:55 PM
If Roger wins Cincinnati, Rafael will be hard pressed to catch him, won't he?

Federer has not a single point from Paris or Madrid, and really only has a bundle of points from the U.S. Open. Nadal has no optionals left, if I'm not mistaken, so is it just a matter of Federer not imploding at the U.S. and putting some work in at his optionals in Basel and Bangkok?

Don't forget Federer has quite a lot from the TMC too - the max 750.
Nadal is allowed an extra optional until Bercy as he wasn't ranked high enough for direct entry last year, but that only lets him gain 190 at the very most.

Beforehand
08-17-2005, 04:57 PM
Ah. Tennis Masters Cup.

So, as long as Federer doesn't do HORRIBLY at the Open and cleans his optionals up a little bit, he won't have to worry about keeping #1 until the Masters Cup?

Skyward
08-17-2005, 05:00 PM
How many optional tournaments are allowed? 5?

Beforehand
08-17-2005, 05:02 PM
I believe it's only 5.

Skyward
08-17-2005, 05:05 PM
I believe it's only 5.

Hasn't Nadal already won 5 optional tournaments this year? Brasil, Acapulco, Barcelona, Bastad, Stuttgart.

Beforehand
08-17-2005, 05:06 PM
That's what I thought, but apparently not.

rue
08-17-2005, 05:07 PM
Federer would have to lose early this week and then Nadal would have to do really well at the US Open with a semi final or a final appearance.

ys
08-17-2005, 05:22 PM
I don't see him being #1 before AO end. He is on a foreign turf now, on a surface where he is not expected to do well against top opposition. And then .. it will be indoors .. even worse.. Fed didn't care about playing indoors last year as he had no challengers. He will care this time. The next time Nadal plays on a friendly surface will be in Australia. Then he can make some strides.. But so can Fed..

jtipson
08-17-2005, 05:29 PM
That's what I thought, but apparently not.

Yes, it is normally restricted to five if you are ranked high enough for direct entry into all the masters' tournaments (or qualify or get WCs for them), but Nadal didn't get into Bercy last year, so he's allowed a sixth optional until that tournament takes place this year. This means he can temporarily bolster his ranking with another optional result, but it will come off before the TMC.

On the race he'll only be allowed five optionals since he's been ranked high enough for direct entry all this year.

jtipson
08-17-2005, 05:31 PM
Ah. Tennis Masters Cup.

So, as long as Federer doesn't do HORRIBLY at the Open and cleans his optionals up a little bit, he won't have to worry about keeping #1 until the Masters Cup?

Provided that Nadal doesn't win in New York. Then it would be touch and go for the rest of the season.

NYCtennisfan
08-17-2005, 07:25 PM
Yes, that extra optional will temporarily boos the ranking but Federer also gets one more optional so it could really be a tight race here down to the end. It all really depends on the USO. A win by one player and an exit at the QF stage or earlier by the other could be the difference.

DrJules
12-24-2005, 12:31 AM
In which month in 2006 will Rafael Nadal become world number 1

Bilbo
12-24-2005, 12:32 AM
noone

euroka1
12-24-2005, 12:46 AM
Foot problems already! :(

nobama
12-24-2005, 12:49 AM
Seems like he still has lingering foot problems which factors into the equation.

DrJules
12-24-2005, 01:00 AM
Foot problems already! :(

Neither Roger or Rafael number 1 at year end 2006 because of feet :eek:

HappyAndie
12-24-2005, 01:11 AM
Makes you wonder about Nike shoes.

Deboogle!.
12-24-2005, 01:13 AM
Makes you wonder about Nike shoes.Especially consdering Agassi and Hewitt both had foot problems this year, too.

Hola Mr. SK
12-24-2005, 01:36 AM
u mean in the ATP Champion Race:shrug:?Yes! in January! After AO,he's got little chance!----injury,I guess.

In ATP World Rank, no chance if Roger doesn't have a crappy injury year.

Hola Mr. SK
12-24-2005, 01:45 AM
Neither Roger or Rafael number 1 at year end 2006 because of feet :eek:
hell,probably! :angel:
Nalbandian finishes NO.1:eek:

maryam619
12-24-2005, 03:37 PM
in july;) if his foot doesnt affect him offcourse im psychic i saw it in my vision:p

AgassiDomination
12-24-2005, 04:58 PM
No chance.

RonE
12-24-2005, 05:14 PM
This coming Federeruary.

El Legenda
12-24-2005, 05:50 PM
:haha: :haha: stop it.

KoOlMaNsEaN
12-24-2005, 09:45 PM
:lol: Is this a joke?
Roger will always be #1 in 2006!

TommyM
12-24-2005, 10:42 PM
Well, OK, I gave him a chance. :)

adee-gee
12-24-2005, 10:52 PM
Was this thread designed for me :p

Probably April, if not sooner :)

almouchie
12-24-2005, 10:55 PM
realistically & on points calculation not b4 Jan, as Federer has a lot of points
I hope nadal can reach his points & top the ranking & not allow federer to equal or jump past PETE SAMPRAS record

Fedex
12-24-2005, 11:16 PM
I'm not sure I see Nadal becoming number 1 in 06.

El Legenda
12-24-2005, 11:45 PM
Was this thread designed for me :p

Probably April, if not sooner :)

never stop dreaming :)

mangoes
12-25-2005, 12:35 AM
Not in 2006. He'll have to wait another year.

fangirl
12-25-2005, 12:45 AM
I said May/June, because if it happens, I think it will be after RG.

Deboogle!.
12-25-2005, 01:05 AM
:eek: Kell are you feeling ok? :p

Anyway, I think his best shot might be after Wimbledon, if Roger doesn't defend all his points and if he does better than he did. or USO..... those are the only two places he can really stack on a huge # of points at once, combined with the possibility that Roger could lose some.

fangirl
12-25-2005, 02:07 AM
I can't wait to go shopping.

Look Deb! A normal post from me - unrelated to tennis.

Fergie
12-25-2005, 12:09 PM
Not will happen :)

TennisGrandSlam
12-25-2005, 01:45 PM
no way! :o

Roger will still be NO.1 :cool:

Deea
12-25-2005, 01:53 PM
I said May/June, because if it happens, I think it will be after RG.

Agreed! ;)

alfonsojose
12-25-2005, 08:34 PM
Hopefully, Nevember

shotgun
12-25-2005, 11:52 PM
I said May/June, because if it happens, I think it will be after RG.

If it happens, it probably won't be by May/June. This is when Nadal, unlike Federer, defends the most of his points. He'll have to win at least Roland Garros, 2 TMS and Barcelona to keep his current number of points, let alone increase it.

jenanun
12-26-2005, 12:38 AM
no way! :o

Roger will still be NO.1 :cool:

of course. roger will be no.1 FOREVER! :rolleyes: :o




well, i hope to see rafael to be no.1 asap, but my guess is around may next year, assumed he is fit....

Art&Soul
12-27-2005, 10:42 AM
Hopefully, Nevember
Right answer

A_Skywalker
12-27-2005, 11:15 AM
he has a chance after Wimbledon if Roger doesnt defend his points ...

Black Adam
12-27-2005, 11:56 AM
His best chance is in the 2nd hakf of the year because Roger will have more points to defend (Wimbledon, USO and Cincinatti) while Nadal can only add more points to his ranking.

Tennis_Passion
01-03-2006, 07:09 PM
I mean, Michael had his chance against the dominating Pete after winning his first slam. But that was the peak of his career. Will Rafe repeat another Michael Chang like career?

1sun
01-03-2006, 07:11 PM
he hasnt even been no1 yet so how can he become no1 again>?

Tennis_Passion
01-03-2006, 07:12 PM
Haha, that is true.....it is like will Roddick ever becoming popular again....
My fault:).

mangoes
01-03-2006, 07:14 PM
Eventually.......................but, not this year.

casillas_girl
01-03-2006, 07:32 PM
he hasnt even been no1 yet so how can he become no1 again>?
:lol: you have a point there!

adee-gee
01-03-2006, 07:35 PM
WILL YOU STOP CALLING HIM RAFE! :fiery:

HIS NAME IS RAFA. THANK YOU. :p

casillas_girl
01-03-2006, 07:37 PM
I never knew people also called him Rafe. It's just not right!!

Sjengster
01-03-2006, 07:37 PM
Isn't his possible his full name is actually Ralph Nadal, and that his ancestors came from, say, medieval Warwickshire rather than the exotic climes of Majorca?

adee-gee
01-03-2006, 07:42 PM
Isn't his possible his full name is actually Ralph Nadal, and that his ancestors came from, say, medieval Warwickshire rather than the exotic climes of Majorca?
:rolls: anything is better than Rafe I suppose!

jacobhiggins
01-03-2006, 08:08 PM
He won't end the year number one until Federer retires or starts to decline!!!

Billy Moonshine
01-03-2006, 08:09 PM
I think he has a great chance of becoming number one, maybe not for a few years though. I think this because he is so talented, trains hard and has proven he can win on clay, hard and indoors and there will come a time when Federer is out with injury or his level drops and Rafa capitalises.

Clara Bow
01-03-2006, 08:27 PM
Isn't his possible his full name is actually Ralph Nadal, and that his ancestors came from, say, medieval Warwickshire rather than the exotic climes of Majorca?


:lol: Well- that would explain his pale complexion. ;)

Topic- I do think he could reach number one in the future (not near future) if he continues to improve on faster surfaces and Roger begins to have a dip. However, I am worried about the fact that he has had injury after injury these past few months, and hope that it does point to a short career for him. But as Billy Moonshines said, I think he is talented and trains hard so if his health holds up and he continues to work on his game, I could see him reaching #1.

Galaxystorm
01-03-2006, 08:57 PM
Isn't his possible his full name is actually Ralph Nadal, and that his ancestors came from, say, medieval Warwickshire rather than the exotic climes of Majorca?

There are only two possibilites, 1) his real name " Rafel ".... 2 ) and " Rafael " , the name i suspect is in his indetity card .

adee-gee
01-03-2006, 10:09 PM
Oh the title was changed. Success!

Lopaka
01-04-2006, 01:26 AM
:topic: Based on the interviews I've heard and the transcripts Rafael Nadal seems to favor being called Rafael/Rafel or Rafa. Some who post about him on a regular basis do refer to Rafa as "the kid" and "our little boy".

Back on topic

Although it does seem Rafa may be fragile because of physical problems in 2003, 2004, 2005. The current “post traumatic arthritis” condition has been related to the 2004 stress fracture. The published reports seem to indicate the corrective measures being taken will keep Rafa pounding tennis balls for many years to come.

What will be most interesting to see from whenever Rafa gets back into competition has the current problem had an effect on his overall strategy and game plan? Personally, if nothing else I hope he has found a few more “aces” to add to his serve. Maybe the foot discomforts will help “the kid” win a few more points without the need to chase down so many balls.

Obviously I think Rafa can be No.1. :yeah:

But I think a more interesting question is can anyone including Rafa be a No. 1 with the longevity Roger is showing.

Veronique
07-20-2006, 06:25 PM
I feel Fed has pretty much maxed out Whenever he enters a tournament, he usually goes all the way. Nadal on the other hand is still a work in progress. He could still improve at the USO and the Aussie. Right now, roughly 2000 points separate the 2. When do you think Nadal will be able to close the gap and eventually take the #1 spot?

jenanun
07-20-2006, 06:49 PM
best chance is before the next clay season starts as nadal has not got too many points to defend....

whereas federer has USO, AO and shanghai runner up

Andre♥
07-20-2006, 06:53 PM
When Federer retires.

elang
07-20-2006, 07:09 PM
We need to see how well Nadal play USO and Assi before we predict.

World Beater
07-20-2006, 07:12 PM
wait...isn't nadal #1 already :confused:

rofe
07-20-2006, 07:46 PM
wait...isn't nadal #1 already :confused:

In some people's minds - he already is.

Veronique
07-20-2006, 08:01 PM
Yup! For the near future, Nadal has to do better at USO, Masters Cup, and the Aussie and hope that Federer tumbles in one of those. I was thinking more long term though.

Bilbo
07-20-2006, 08:03 PM
when federer gets old

Veronique
07-20-2006, 08:05 PM
Cute!

flyguydsl
07-20-2006, 08:27 PM
If he wins the US Open, then we can say yes, he will eventually.

Yappa
07-20-2006, 08:28 PM
Possibly never. When Feder gets too old (8-10 years), we'll already have new Young Guns. :D

dEcu_RF
07-20-2006, 09:07 PM
when the entire atp calendar is played on clay ...

Purple Rainbow
07-20-2006, 10:32 PM
Nadal can start by defending his title at the Roger's cup this year...

mangoes
07-20-2006, 10:40 PM
Cute!

No darling............it's your thread that's cute :rolleyes:

Anyway, since everyone is certain that Nadal will overtake Roger for no. 1.............how long do you envision Nadal holding on to the ranking? Do you envision Roger taking it back from Nadal?

Oh, what about another possibility...........Roger holds on to the ranking till 08 and by then, it's not only Rafa fighting for the No. 1 ranking..........especially considering the fact that Baghdatis has made it to 2 different slam SFs this year. What will Baghdatis be doing in another year?? Granted, I'd prefer Nadal to earn the no. 1 berth over Baghdatis...........but, nothing is written in stone........especially the fact that Roger's reign is over..........

kronus12
07-20-2006, 10:45 PM
haha yeah when the entire atp tour is played on clay or when federer decides to retire.
Not going to happen to much points ahead and federer game does not look like its slacking off.

hablovah19
07-20-2006, 11:12 PM
I don't think Nadal will overtake Federer anytime soon. :shrug:

Daniel
07-20-2006, 11:27 PM
not this year.

megadeth
07-20-2006, 11:50 PM
I feel Fed has pretty much maxed out. Whenever he enters a tournament, he usually goes all the way. Nadal on the other hand is still a work in progress. He could still improve at the USO and the Aussie. Right now, roughly 2000 points separate the 2. When do you think Nadal will be able to close the gap and eventually take the #1 spot?

fed is maxed out? geez! have u just started watching tennis during monte carlo this year?

he's reached 16 straight finals and doesn't appear to be burning out anytime soon

too premature for most people to think that nadal is already the new #1...

but to be constructive, the best chance for nadal is in the AO next year, provided fed doesn't do well... otherwise, nadal would have a lot of points to defend in the clay season

Roger The Great
07-21-2006, 12:46 AM
Frankly, Fed's play will have to decrease for Nadal to be #1. Period. In the past twelve months, Roger has made the final or won every single event he has played on every surface. To my mind that has never happened before. So for people to ask when Rafa will take over #1 is a little insulting to Federer's talent. I think Nadal is amazing but I don't think him capable of matching Roger's current point total.

And as people have been saying, if Rafa can't grab number one from Roger in the relative near future, who's to say he ever will? Nothing is a given in tennis and there is always new talent on the horizon. But on the flip side, Roger could injure himself on the hard courts this summer and Rafa could be number one by the end of the US Open. Predictions are impossible to make.

Seleshfan
07-21-2006, 12:51 AM
fed is maxed out? geez! have u just started watching tennis during monte carlo this year?

he's reached 16 straight finals and doesn't appear to be burning out anytime soon

too premature for most people to think that nadal is already the new #1...

but to be constructive, the best chance for nadal is in the AO next year, provided fed doesn't do well... otherwise, nadal would have a lot of points to defend in the clay season
I don't think he meant Federer was burned out, only that his results can't get much better, as he is always winning, or at least runner-up.

fenomeno2111
07-21-2006, 12:55 AM
Nadal cut off the gap 700 points by making Wimbledon finals in relation to Federer, if he does the same in USO and then he can gain points in Cincy and defend Canada, then defend Madrid and do some damage in Shangai. He can cut off the gap by a lot even if he doesn't win these tournaments. Making the finals in USO, Cincy and Shangai will make it so close and interesting for next year. Then on january he definitely has a shot at the rebound ace of AO. Interesting things coming, I don't he'll take it anytime soon but it will be much more close the following months.

megadeth
07-21-2006, 01:40 AM
I don't think he meant Federer was burned out, only that his results can't get much better, as he is always winning, or at least runner-up.

well there's still 3 TMS titles this year that can add to fed's points since he didn't join them last year... that's a max of 1500 pts possible

ezekiel
07-21-2006, 01:53 AM
Federer hasn't won on clay , has he?

Anyway this is the hottest topic here and Nadal has a good chance by AO to get enough points to get to #1

Ivanatis
07-21-2006, 02:10 AM
he won't n the near future

Nadal is lucky that there are much more clay court tournaments in the calendar than grass

but when Federer is in top condition he will keep winning Melbourne and New York in the next years

ok, Rafa beat Federer on hard court this year, but this will not be happening again and if it does it will not be at a Grand Slam event

in NY, Wimmy and Melbourne Rafa can always lose to local heroes like Blake last year or players who have a very strong day like Kendrick (almost in this case)

so the only thing which could help Rafa to become no. 1 is an injury that will force Roger to withdraw from Grand Slam tournament

lunahielo
07-21-2006, 02:11 AM
never :)

robinhood
07-21-2006, 02:22 AM
Nadal is certainly closing in quickly.
I think after this year's USO, we will have a much better idea.
Hopefully Fed will hold on to it longer than some people here predict.

Preston
07-21-2006, 03:00 AM
Realistically, I don't think he will in the near future. If ever, I feel that it'll at least take till sometime in 2008. At the moment Federer is just too good and above all, TOO CONSISTENT. Yes, Federer has lost a few finals to Nadal, with most of them on Clay and all. But who else has Federer loss too? Even in the past two years, there has only been a handfull (not even really) of players that have beaten him. I even know them off the top of my head, but I won't bother naming them. So I believe while Nadal will occasionally beat Fed in finals, Fed will just continue making final, after final, after final, and winning most of them. While Nadal will make many finals, but continue to also have that occasional hick-up, and be upset before the final. That will be why the gap in points will not close completely anytime soon.

Veronique
07-21-2006, 03:55 AM
No darling............it's your thread that's cute :rolleyes:

Anyway, since everyone is certain that Nadal will overtake Roger for no. 1.............how long do you envision Nadal holding on to the ranking? Do you envision Roger taking it back from Nadal?

Oh, what about another possibility...........Roger holds on to the ranking till 08 and by then, it's not only Rafa fighting for the No. 1 ranking..........especially considering the fact that Baghdatis has made it to 2 different slam SFs this year. What will Baghdatis be doing in another year?? Granted, I'd prefer Nadal to earn the no. 1 berth over Baghdatis...........but, nothing is written in stone........especially the fact that Roger's reign is over..........

I envision the #1 spot going back and forth between the 2 for a while with Roger holding it for longer stretches. I don't think Roger will be able to hold on to #1 until 08 though.

Veronique
07-21-2006, 03:59 AM
haha yeah when the entire atp tour is played on clay or when federer decides to retire.
Not going to happen to much points ahead and federer game does not look like its slacking off.

Less than it used to be though. Wimbledon got Nadal closer. Perhaps the USO and the Masters Cup will get him even closer?

Veronique
07-21-2006, 04:02 AM
fed is maxed out? geez! have u just started watching tennis during monte carlo this year?

he's reached 16 straight finals and doesn't appear to be burning out anytime soon

too premature for most people to think that nadal is already the new #1...

but to be constructive, the best chance for nadal is in the AO next year, provided fed doesn't do well... otherwise, nadal would have a lot of points to defend in the clay season

Nope! Started watching back in 1989 and got really serious during the 1990 USO. You probably were in diapers then? :)

I don't mean that Roger is burned out, but rather that he's already gotten all the points he can get. All he's doing now is defending while Nadal still has a chance to add more points.

Johnny Groove
07-21-2006, 04:05 AM
I don't mean that Roger is burned out, but rather that he's already gotten all the points he can get. All he's doing now is defending while Nadal still has a chance to add more points.

:secret: they can both add points in the indoor season

Veronique
07-21-2006, 04:05 AM
I don't think he meant Federer was burned out, only that his results can't get much better, as he is always winning, or at least runner-up.

That's exactly what I meant. Thanks! I'm a she though. LOL

Veronique
07-21-2006, 04:08 AM
Nadal cut off the gap 700 points by making Wimbledon finals in relation to Federer, if he does the same in USO and then he can gain points in Cincy and defend Canada, then defend Madrid and do some damage in Shangai. He can cut off the gap by a lot even if he doesn't win these tournaments. Making the finals in USO, Cincy and Shangai will make it so close and interesting for next year. Then on january he definitely has a shot at the rebound ace of AO. Interesting things coming, I don't he'll take it anytime soon but it will be much more close the following months.

That makes the rest of this season so interesting. Hopefully nobody gets hurt.

LCeh
07-21-2006, 04:09 AM
I don't mean that Roger is burned out, but rather that he's already gotten all the points he can get. All he's doing now is defending while Nadal still has a chance to add more points.

That's a contradictory statement. If Roger is already getting all the points he can get, how can anyone surpass him? In order for someone else to surpass him, he must not be getting all the points he can get.

Anyway, if you are really interested, you can search for posts by NYCTennisFan in Roger's forum, particularly in the "What does Roger need to do to stay #1" thread, which has a lot of info in it.

Veronique
07-21-2006, 04:13 AM
well there's still 3 TMS titles this year that can add to fed's points since he didn't join them last year... that's a max of 1500 pts possible

Good point! It'll be interesting to see if Roger will enter those events this year to widen the gap between himself and the rest of the field.

Veronique
07-21-2006, 04:25 AM
:secret: they can both add points in the indoor season

True, Blaze! That would mean Roger playing more than 20 events/yr. For a player who always goes all the way, that can be taxing on the body. I see him playing either Madrid or Paris this year. But who knows? I might want to play both and distance himself from Nadal even further.

buddyholly
07-21-2006, 04:26 AM
Not before Federer retires. Federer can keep on being runner-up on clay, Nadal can be runner-up on grass. But where most of the points are - on hard surfaces - Rafa is not even runner-up material.

Johnny Groove
07-21-2006, 04:28 AM
But where most of the points are - on hard surfaces - Rafa is not even runner-up material.

Indian wells SF, Montreal win, Dubai win (over fed no less), Madrid win (over indoor king Ljubo), those were all flukes, right? of course! because its a slow hard court or a hard court painted over as clay :rolleyes:

Veronique
07-21-2006, 04:32 AM
That's a contradictory statement. If Roger is already getting all the points he can get, how can anyone surpass him? In order for someone else to surpass him, he must not be getting all the points he can get.

Anyway, if you are really interested, you can search for posts by NYCTennisFan in Roger's forum, particularly in the "What does Roger need to do to stay #1" thread, which has a lot of info in it.

I'm sure you're familiar with the way the ATP ranking works? Roger didn't earn any points at Wimbledon, he defended points he earned last year. Now, if plays an event he didn't play last year, let's say Montreal (or is it Toronto this year?), then he will add to his total. Of course, I'm talking about the ATP ranking, not the Race.

jacobhiggins
07-21-2006, 04:50 AM
Federer is going to be defending a lot of points, but is Nadal going to as good next year as he has this year. We know Federer will but Nadal were not sure about.

I think it will be a good 3 years before Federers dominence starts to fall!

stebs
07-21-2006, 07:38 PM
I think Nadal will overtake Federer as world number 1 after Miami next year. I don't think that means he will be a certainty for year end number 1 though. I think when Nadal does catch up there will bea decent while of fighting with ranking changes often before eventually Nadal will probably be able to keep hold of the ranking for some time. For instance I am not at all convinced that Nadal, given a tough draw, will get close to defending the points he ammased at Wimbledon. Easy to see Roger overtaking again there. I don't think Nadal will have a real stranglehold on the number 1 spot until '08.

mangoes
07-21-2006, 07:56 PM
I think Nadal will overtake Federer as world number 1 after Miami next year. I don't think that means he will be a certainty for year end number 1 though. I think when Nadal does catch up there will bea decent while of fighting with ranking changes often before eventually Nadal will probably be able to keep hold of the ranking for some time. For instance I am not at all convinced that Nadal, given a tough draw, will get close to defending the points he ammased at Wimbledon. Easy to see Roger overtaking again there. I don't think Nadal will have a real stranglehold on the number 1 spot until '08.


I think that we also have to make allowances for the guys, in Nadal's age group, that should catch up to him by 08. So, I find it hard to say from 08 Nadal should have a solid hold on the no. 1 ranking. We have to consider that guys like Gasquet and Baghdatis could be stiring the pot by 08. Anything can happen........ ;) Furthermore, I really want to see other players catch up to Roger and Rafa. The prospect of Roger and Rafa dominating to this degree for another couple of years gives me a slight headache :lol: :lol:

DrJules
07-21-2006, 08:05 PM
:secret: they can both add points in the indoor season

Yes, but indoor courts might strongly favour Roger over Rafael. Madrid was won by Nadal on an indoor hardcourt, but both Paris and Shanghai are on carpets which strongly favour Roger.

Cervantes
07-21-2006, 08:23 PM
I don't think Nadal will have a real stranglehold on the number 1 spot until '08.

What makes you think Nadal will have a stranglehold on the number 1 position in 2008? He can't keep winning every clay event like he's doing now, eventually his dominance will decrease on the surface. And on hardcourt he's good, but not phenomenal.

I think Nadal's best chance to become #1 is March 2007, after Indian Wells and Miami. I don't think he'll copy his clay and grass run of this summer in 2007, so Fed will probably have some breathing room again after the next Wimbledon. Of course this is all speculation and if either of the two gets injured it'll be totally different again.

stebs
07-21-2006, 11:16 PM
What makes you think Nadal will have a stranglehold on the number 1 position in 2008? He can't keep winning every clay event like he's doing now, eventually his dominance will decrease on the surface. And on hardcourt he's good, but not phenomenal.

I think Nadal's best chance to become #1 is March 2007, after Indian Wells and Miami. I don't think he'll copy his clay and grass run of this summer in 2007, so Fed will probably have some breathing room again after the next Wimbledon. Of course this is all speculation and if either of the two gets injured it'll be totally different again.
I don't think he will definately have a stranglehold but I think there will be a period at some point in 2008 when Nadal will be number 1 for some months. Assuming Federer will start to slip and slide then Rafa doesn't need to dominate like he is. Look at the gap between #2 and #3. I do not think Nadal will ever dominate in any kind of way like Roger has done these last 2 years and continues to do now.

Veronique
07-22-2006, 04:37 AM
First things first, Nadal must defend in Canada. It'll hurt him ranking points wise if he loses all 500 points he gained in Montreal last year. Unless he's hurt, it's not too much to ask that he plays both Canada and Cincy before the USO. Roger is adding another cool 500 to his total unless Nadal knocks him out in Toronto.

Fedex
07-22-2006, 08:30 AM
......especially the fact that Roger's reign is over..........
His reign is over? Wow, I wasn't aware that winning 2 slams out of 3 is such a horrible season. Federer's clearly losing his edge and he should retire while he's still on top.

Fedex
07-22-2006, 08:36 AM
N Making the finals in USO, Cincy and Shangai will make it so close and interesting for next year. Then on january he definitely has a shot at the rebound ace of AO.
Well you make it sound like that's so easy to do. That'll be a tough task for Nadal to accomplish all of that, and keep in mind that Federer can still gain a possible 1500 points for the 3 AMS events he did not play in last year.

Action Jackson
07-22-2006, 08:37 AM
His reign is over? Wow, I wasn't aware that winning 2 slams out of 3 is such a horrible season. Federer's clearly losing his edge and he should retire while he's still on top.

Yes, you are right it is over and should retire.

vincayou
07-22-2006, 11:16 AM
Nadal is unlucky to be number 2 with his results. In most years of the last 20, he would already be number one.

Veronique
07-23-2006, 04:59 AM
Well, Federer is also unlucky to be playing in the Nadal era. Without Rafa, he would be staring at a calendar GS right now and definitely would be crowned as the unquestionable greatest of the moderna era. So it goes both ways.

hablovah19
07-23-2006, 05:05 AM
His reign is over? Wow, I wasn't aware that winning 2 slams out of 3 is such a horrible season. Federer's clearly losing his edge and he should retire while he's still on top.
Yeah winning 2 out of three slams is definitely no big deal ;):lol:

lilagirl
07-23-2006, 05:07 AM
the answer is never. He will never take over Federer.

bokehlicious
07-23-2006, 11:51 AM
Nadal will be remembered as the best player ever never to reach #1 :)

mangoes
07-23-2006, 12:34 PM
His reign is over? Wow, I wasn't aware that winning 2 slams out of 3 is such a horrible season. Federer's clearly losing his edge and he should retire while he's still on top.


Did you read my entire post? I mean that to be sarcastic...........

mangoes
07-23-2006, 12:36 PM
Nadal will be remembered as the best player ever never to reach #1 :)


He'll have a special place in the history books if that were to happen............. ;)

stebs
07-23-2006, 05:09 PM
First things first, Nadal must defend in Canada. It'll hurt him ranking points wise if he loses all 500 points he gained in Montreal last year. Unless he's hurt, it's not too much to ask that he plays both Canada and Cincy before the USO. Roger is adding another cool 500 to his total unless Nadal knocks him out in Toronto.
Even if Nadal does defeat Federer in Toronto it is still a chance for Roger to increase his lead. Nadal can only defend his points but Roger will gain even if he is knocked out in the first round.

DrJules
07-23-2006, 06:31 PM
Is Nadal playing in Toronto?

Interesting fact is that Nadal is unquestionably the 2nd best player of this decade, but has never reached number 1. Although both Hewitt and Roddick reached number 1, Nadal has achieved as much as either player already.

Preston
08-12-2006, 08:15 PM
Realistically, I don't think he will in the near future. If ever, I feel that it'll at least take till sometime in 2008. At the moment Federer is just too good and above all, TOO CONSISTENT. Yes, Federer has lost a few finals to Nadal, with most of them on Clay and all. But who else has Federer loss too? Even in the past two years, there has only been a handfull (not even really) of players that have beaten him. I even know them off the top of my head, but I won't bother naming them. So I believe while Nadal will occasionally beat Fed in finals, Fed will just continue making final, after final, after final, and winning most of them. While Nadal will make many finals, but continue to also have that occasional hick-up, and be upset before the final. That will be why the gap in points will not close completely anytime soon.
The events of this week and such, are EXACTLY what I am talking about :p

MurrayFan1
08-12-2006, 08:22 PM
As much as I prefer Rafa over Roger, there is no way in hell that Rafa can come close to Roger any time soon (unless Roger of them gets injured)

Can anybody see Rafa beating Roger in Wimbledon/any grass tournament any time soon? I rest my case.

LCeh
08-12-2006, 08:24 PM
Can anybody see Rafa beating Roger in Wimbledon/any grass tournament any time soon? I rest my case.

Is it just me or does that not really prove your point? I don't see how that rests your case. :confused:

MurrayFan1
08-12-2006, 08:27 PM
Is it just me or does that not really prove your point? I don't see how that rests your case. :confused:

Because he'll still have a better chance in that grand slam so will probably keep winning it along with others and therefore stay in front of Nadal. Nadal obviously has more of an advantage over Roger on clay, but Nadal will have to be consistently better all the time, and I just can't see that happening any time soon. But you just never know.

LCeh
08-12-2006, 08:33 PM
What I mean is, the last thing Nadal should worry about is his grasscourt play. There are only 3 significant grass court tournaments, and 2 happen on the same week. By stating Nadal is worse than Roger on grass is probably the weakest argument to prove that Nadal can't overtake Roger in the ranking.

MurrayFan1
08-12-2006, 08:43 PM
But how is he going to rise above him if Federer keeps on winning Wimbledon?

LCeh
08-12-2006, 08:44 PM
Wimbledon is only one Slam. He can neutralize that with RG. What he needs to do first is improve his hardcourt game. It's not worth it to spend so much time on grass when he will only play 2 tournaments a year on it. Grass is the least of his concerns right now.

DrJules
08-12-2006, 08:49 PM
Because he'll still have a better chance in that grand slam so will probably keep winning it along with others and therefore stay in front of Nadal. Nadal obviously has more of an advantage over Roger on clay, but Nadal will have to be consistently better all the time, and I just can't see that happening any time soon. But you just never know.

Strongly favours Nadal.

Grass = Wimbledon (1000 points) + optionals
Clay = French Open (1000 points) + 3 master series (1,500 points) + optionals.

Therefore, far more points at Nadal's favoured surface rather than Federer's surface. To remain ahead Federer has to dominate grass and win a lot more points than Nadal on hard courts.

MurrayFan1
08-12-2006, 10:22 PM
Strongly favours Nadal.

Grass = Wimbledon (1000 points) + optionals
Clay = French Open (1000 points) + 3 master series (1,500 points) + optionals.



Interesting.

All_Slam_Andre
08-12-2006, 10:27 PM
If Federer wins Toronto, he'll lead Nadal by 3255 points. I know obviously that will change after Cincy, but still, has there ever been such a high gap between the no.1 and no.2? If Nadal can win both the US and Australian Opens, as well as having a good Masters Cup, he could overtake Roger by the end of January 2007, but he would also need Roger to drop a lot of points. Federer can gain points in Tokyo if he plays (worth more ranking points than Bangkok which he entered last year), Madrid, Basel and Paris. I think Roger is guaranteed to beat Jimbo's record of 160 consecutive weeks at no.1

LCeh
08-12-2006, 10:33 PM
Indeed, it would be pretty unbelievable for Nadal to overtake Roger before Jan. 07, and even then it's not that likely, cause Roger still has a lot of points to gain during the indoor season. Realistically, he has the best shot at it at around IW and Miami, when Roger has loads of points to defend, and before Nadal defends his clay court points. If it were to happen, it would happen there, because Nadal isn't going to gain any more points during the claycourt season.

Jaffas85
08-13-2006, 02:33 AM
Nadal's best chance at becoming the #1 soon would be just after the Miami Masters tournament.

For if he can do well in Cincinnati, go much deeper in the U.S. Open *hopefully semis*, do a good job at the Masters Cup and then win the Australian Open *if he can make the final of Wimbledon then surely he must be the favourite for the Australian Open which is faster than Clay but slower than the other main surfaces* he would then be well on his way to being #1 if he defended his semi final Indian Wells points and at least made the final or better yet won Miami.

But if Federer still manages to defend the U.S. Open, win the Masters Cup and prolly be runner up to Nadal at the Australia Open Federer will still be #1 only the gap between #1 and #2 will be shortened.

Realistically, I can't see Federer losing his #1 status until his form starts to slip, or he is injured or loses motivation *kinda like the only way the Williams sisters fell away*.

At his best, Federer can still win too many titles and go deep enough in draws thus disallowing him to be in danger of losing the #1 title any time soon.

denisgiann
08-13-2006, 07:53 AM
Fed will lose his place after two or three years and not to Nadal ;)

rmb6687
08-13-2006, 08:16 AM
Damn...two or three years...I don't think I can't take it much longer :mad:

Tommy_Babyboy
08-13-2006, 08:22 AM
I think Roger should quit tennis for a year or so to lose this enormous amout of points gained to give 1st place.
http://www.cosgan.de/images/more/bigs/a102.gif
http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a331/ailias2/TommySexySuppBann.gif
http://www.cosgan.de/images/more/bigs/a234.gif

yanchr
08-13-2006, 08:24 AM
But if Federer still manages to defend the U.S. Open, win the Masters Cup and prolly be runner up to Nadal at the Australia Open Federer will still be #1 only the gap between #1 and #2 will be shortened.

I find it rather funny that, though I know it's just prediction, many seem already take it for granted that Nadal will win next AO and beats Roger in the final. I'm not saying it can't happen and I know the surface favors Nadal, but to say probably is kind of ridiculous to me. Sounds like the rest of the field are non-existent.

All_Slam_Andre
08-13-2006, 08:34 AM
He'll beat Connor's 160 consecutive weeks record that for sure. It would be phenomenal if he could reach 200 consecutive weeks at no.1. It will be tough as he would need to stay no. 1 for another year and a half, but it would be fantastic.

DrJules
08-13-2006, 10:43 AM
A Federer injury is the most likely cause - but when :shrug: .

oz_boz
08-13-2006, 01:26 PM
Next year.

Why couldn't Nadal overtake Fed during clay season? It's not like Fed has few points to defend, final of MC , Rome and RG.

Preston
08-13-2006, 03:32 PM
Federer, barring an injury layoff, will not lose the #1 ranking until 2008 if ever. Honestly, I think it's pretty far-fetched for him to lose it even then (in 2008). He's far too consistent. Also he can lose EVERY final on Clay that he plays Nadal in, but he'll still won't lose the #1 ranking on that merit. Nadal has ALOT of improving to do, before he can realisticly flirt with the #1 ranking.

Veronique
08-15-2006, 05:36 PM
I'm already excitingly looking forward to 2007. These 2 have made tennis more interesting than it would have been. Thank God for Nadal!

bandabou
08-15-2006, 05:51 PM
I think only by injury of Roger of roger has to drop his level very very badly. The guy is to consistent, dominating on at least two surfaces, and pretty good on the third one....whereas Nadal, say what people wanna say, is merely a product of ONE good surface: clay...take him away from clay and he becomes mortal and can lose to the blakes and berdychs of this world....take Roger away from grass and/or hardcourt and he's still reaching finals, only losing to Nadal....plus for all the owning people say Nadal owns Roger and is threatening him, Roger still won multiple majors for the 3rd straight time, soooo...

connectolove
08-15-2006, 06:06 PM
Nadal has a hard case, Fed is too good and Nadal has to win most of these tournaments. Who knows when it will happen or if it ever will.

stebs
08-15-2006, 06:12 PM
Nadal has a hard case, Fed is too good and Nadal has to win most of these tournaments. Who knows when it will happen or if it ever will.
It has to be assumed that at a point Roger will have a bad week. I'm not talking Halle or anything like that. I'm talking he has a match where he just completely fades and loses early in a tournament. If this happens to happen during a slam then maybe Nadal has a chance.

Veronique
08-15-2006, 06:13 PM
I'm just curious. Nadal is barely 20 and Roger 25. Rafa can still improve and hit his peak maybe at 23 or so. Who else do you see challenging him for #1 once Federer is gone?

Rogiman
08-15-2006, 06:15 PM
I think only by injury of Roger of roger has to drop his level very very badly. The guy is to consistent, dominating on at least two surfaces, and pretty good on the third one
Fed's run to 17 consequtive finals has made us all so used to him winning all the time, that we can't even imagine him losing some of his consistency/intensity, but in reality decline is inevitable, and often steep.

Sampras had a gradual decline in form from 1994 onwards (relatively speaking), but look at players like Kafelnikov (granted, not in Fed's league) who had a very good 2001, seemed to be peaking at the end of the year, only to crush hard and become a non-factor right in the begining of 2002.
Also Henman, who had his career best and worst seasons in 2004 and 2005 respectively.

Fed is not going to be winning everything forever, those who keep bitching about him should remember that, eventually the constant pressure he's been facing will take its toll on him and he'll become a step slower, then two...

Nadal can only hope he'll still the one closest to him when that happens, and I'm not convinced about that.

DDrago2
08-15-2006, 06:33 PM
Nadal's game makes him more injury-prone than Federer. Who knows what will happen in future

Veronique
08-16-2006, 03:30 AM
[I] Nadal can only hope he'll still the one closest to him when that happens, and I'm not convinced about that.

Who else do you see beside Rafa though?

Veronique
08-17-2006, 05:25 PM
Rafa better do himself a favor and do extremely well in Cincy to get back the points he lost in Cincy. That'll help his cause tremendously.

Heaven and Hell
08-20-2006, 10:21 PM
Yes.

GlennMirnyi
08-20-2006, 10:33 PM
Never. Stop joking.

ca1houn
08-20-2006, 11:30 PM
Nadal better speed thing up before the rapture stop him

R.Federer
09-07-2006, 05:29 PM
Is Roger's hold on #1 safe for a little longer now? Through the early clay season?

BlueSwan
09-07-2006, 05:34 PM
Is Roger's hold on #1 safe for a little longer now? Through the early clay season?
Oh no. If he wins the US Open then things look very good for him, but consider this: Nadal can gain 2000 points on Federer at the Aussie Open alone, if Federer doesn't play and Nadal wins it. Federer still needs to gather points continually to take home the record for most consecutive weeks at #1.

DDrago2
09-07-2006, 05:36 PM
Nadal overtaking Federer anytime in the future would be a major miracle - as long as Federer is what he is now.

All_Slam_Andre
09-07-2006, 07:19 PM
Federer's hold the no.1 sport is guaranteed until at least the clay court season next year, and even then it will still be difficult, especially as he could gain quite a few points in the indoor season this year. He's guaranteed to break Jimmy Connors's record of 160 consecutive weeks at number 1 (February next year I think will be when he does it). It would be very impressive if he could reach 200 consecutive weeks at number 1. Still a long way to go but that would be a nice milestone

David Kenzie
09-07-2006, 07:49 PM
Only if Roger looses early at the AO can Rafa realisticaly reach #1 and even then it would be long shot.

DrJules
09-07-2006, 07:55 PM
Federer currently leads Nadal in the points race by 349 points. The next 3 events are Madrid, Paris and Shanghai. Provided Federer remains fit he probably should increase his lead over Nadal this year. Actually the Federer-Nadal gap at 349 is almost identical to the Nadal-Ljubicic gap at 360 currently.

http://www.atptennis.com/3/en/rankings/championsrace/

I know many have talked about the Federer-Nadal domination, but the figures suggest that Federer has dominated everybody.

Bagelicious
09-07-2006, 09:50 PM
Who else do you see beside Rafa though?

Any one of the young guns could get their act together within the next couple of years and start being a dominant force. Just because they are inconsistent headcases now doesn't mean that it can't happen in the future - Roger was once an inconsistent headcase too.

This isn't really on topic, but I feel part of the reason that Roger is able to be as dominant as he has been is because he took his time to mature. He's been through bad losses, losing when he shouldn't have, too much expectation too early and now that he's dealt with it, it's hard for him to return. All he has to do is look back 3 or 4 years to remember what it feels like to be a bit of an underachiever and know that he never wants to get back there. It's easier for him to deal with a loss because he has more perspective - it still hurts, but it's better than when he was disappointing himself and others consistently.

Nadal is amazing for someone who is only age 20 - but I think it's easy to feel invincible when you're younger and not quite tour hardened. If he suffers even a few bad losses, it could have a much bigger effect on him because he never really had to deal with the pressure or disappointment of being considered a top contender who isn't living up to expectation.

Veronique
09-07-2006, 10:27 PM
Come on! Give me some names!;-) Baghdatis is the more promising of the bunch if he can up his work ethic and get fitter. He's got tons of talent but he's very lazy.:-( Berdych is way too inconsistent and Gasquet too weak mentally. We shall see in a couple of years.

Bagelicious
09-07-2006, 10:52 PM
Well I'm thinking of Gasquet especially. He is a lot like Federer was at around the same age and I feel he has the best chance of achieving a similar domination should the stars align that way. It's a bit of a mental issue with him (and he's had some injuries this year) and mental issues can be resolved or grown out of.

I feel Berdych and Ancic have a good chance as well - Ancic isn't quite a young gun, but he's already been in the top ten this year. Djokovic and Murray are talented, but I doubt their ability to achieve the mindset required to stay at the top - they come off as somewhat brash to me and I find it a bit immature.

I also doubt Baghdatis - much as I love his charisma and his obvious talent, I don't think he has the aggression/competitive/cutthroat mentality needed to stay at the top consistently. If he's as lazy as you say, that doesn't say 'future champion' to me.

NYCtennisfan
09-08-2006, 12:33 AM
Mathematically, Nadal can overtake Federer THIS season provided he wins the rest of his matches and Federer loses against Blake and only gathers about 100 or so more points the rest of the way. If Federer beats Blake, then Nadal would have to win two smaller winter fall indoor tournaments, Madrid, Paris, and go undefeated at the TMC. Fed would clinch the #1 with a finals appearance at the OPen.

Federer has a chance to open up quite a sizable lead the rest of the way if he wins the Open. I thought that the #1 would for sure be at least mathematically in play at the AO but it looks like it may not.

BlueSwan
09-08-2006, 06:42 AM
Federer has a ton of points to defend early in the year. If he gets injured thoughout january-march, then he might not break the record. Injuries DO happen!

hasanahmad
09-08-2006, 06:46 AM
The way nadal has been playing he is going to turn into another Hewitt

GlennMirnyi
09-08-2006, 06:59 AM
The way nadal has been playing he is going to turn into another Hewitt

Right on!

If anyone was thinking he isn't a moonballer, that he can adapt his game, now they must be gettin' pretty disappointed. Next year, when Waske defeats him in Wimbledon's 1st round, any little possibility of the moonball beating the technique will be over. ;)

Monteque
09-08-2006, 02:20 PM
Any one of the young guns could get their act together within the next couple of years and start being a dominant force. Just because they are inconsistent headcases now doesn't mean that it can't happen in the future - Roger was once an inconsistent headcase too.

This isn't really on topic, but I feel part of the reason that Roger is able to be as dominant as he has been is because he took his time to mature. He's been through bad losses, losing when he shouldn't have, too much expectation too early and now that he's dealt with it, it's hard for him to return. All he has to do is look back 3 or 4 years to remember what it feels like to be a bit of an underachiever and know that he never wants to get back there. It's easier for him to deal with a loss because he has more perspective - it still hurts, but it's better than when he was disappointing himself and others consistently.

Nadal is amazing for someone who is only age 20 - but I think it's easy to feel invincible when you're younger and not quite tour hardened. If he suffers even a few bad losses, it could have a much bigger effect on him because he never really had to deal with the pressure or disappointment of being considered a top contender who isn't living up to expectation.

:yeah:
completely agree.
Everybody's shrieking about how good Nadal for the such young age and finally comparing to Fed while he was 20. And it's not always good to skyrocketing too high such a young age. Let's see when he get 25, will he has 8 grand slams throphies in his shelf.

Deathless Mortal
10-05-2006, 10:55 AM
Maybe Nadal beats Roger almost every time when they are playing, but I think that never, while Federer is playing as good as he does now, Nadal is going to be 1st tennis player in the world. Roger beats almost every other guy on the tour. This year, except Nadal, only Murray beat him. And Nadal can and was beaten by other guys on the tour more often. So, I think that Roger is not losing his points on the INDESIT ATP rankings that much that Nadal can be the best tennis player in the world.

Action Jackson
10-05-2006, 10:56 AM
Original topic.

hitchhiker
10-05-2006, 11:20 AM
why isnt there a mtf FAQ dealing with this

Action Jackson
10-05-2006, 11:22 AM
why isnt there a mtf FAQ dealing with this

Good idea, go to the Suggestions thread and put your case forward.

doublebackhand
10-05-2006, 11:44 AM
dont be so sarcastic guys. there are always newbies here.

TennisGrandSlam
10-05-2006, 01:09 PM
Hrbaty 2-0 Federer, Hrbaty 3-1 Nadal

How do you think Hrbaty? :cool:

ginnylegend
10-05-2006, 01:14 PM
This the most original topic ever posted in GM.

Bagelicious
10-05-2006, 02:44 PM
Hrbaty 2-0 Federer, Hrbaty 3-1 Nadal

How do you think Hrbaty? :cool:

I think Hrbaty is the true #1.

TennisGrandSlam
10-05-2006, 02:49 PM
I think Hrbaty is the true #1.

:D:D:D

TennisGrandSlam
10-05-2006, 02:53 PM
Vilas : NO.1 is not important!

I had 16 titles with Roland Garros and US Open thropy, but I was still NO.2. :rolleyes:

http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=87323

DDrago2
10-20-2006, 10:33 PM
I realy wonder when

Naranoc
10-20-2006, 10:34 PM
This thread gets bumped up everytime Nadal looses. Quite clearly not anytime soon...

fsoica
07-06-2008, 09:50 PM
First of all, I'm a fan of Roger and I cannot be sad for him losing the no. 1 spot after such a match. And now...my answer to the title question:

I estimate it will be before US Open and he will stay there until next year after Wimbledon, where he will not defend the points and will give the spot to Federer or to Djokovic.

Your oppinions, please ...

maconick
07-06-2008, 09:54 PM
He will take the ranking at Cincinnati and it will last 4-5 years imo

flyguydsl
07-06-2008, 09:56 PM
Is it because they fear some fans will think it's disgraceful that the holder of two slams is still #2? McEnroe never mentioned it once that I can remember and there is nothing at all on the website.

Am I mistaken in thinking that the new points on Monday will be

Federer 6600
Nadal 6055

Does anyone think that Nadal will be able to take over the #1 ranking during the hard court season?

Xenosys
07-06-2008, 09:59 PM
I think it'll Nadal and Fed will swap places for the next year or two at least, until age starts to catch up Federer and his game.

federernadalfan
07-06-2008, 10:01 PM
He is certainly on the right road to a possible #1 before the US open this year.

jonas
07-06-2008, 10:05 PM
He won't.

cool bird1
07-06-2008, 10:05 PM
It to hard to say with a player like Nadal. He fights so hard for every single point. I think maybe 2 years like Hewitt.

Smoke944
07-06-2008, 10:08 PM
He won't.

He won't. Djokovic is way better than him on hard.

Duncan
07-06-2008, 10:10 PM
I think Nadal will still struggle on the hardcourts.

If he improves then it wont be long before he gets to number 1

Chip_s_m
07-06-2008, 10:10 PM
McEnroe mentioned it at the end of the match, saying that in his opinion Nadal is now the "official" #1. Obviously this isn't true yet, but it certainly alludes to the fact that he thinks Nadal is well on his way. And yes, I do think Nadal will take over the #1 spot by the end of the US Open. He only has 630 points to defend until then, whereas Federer has 1850 :eek:. I'd be surprised if Nadal wins the Open, but he really should make it past the 4th round this time. He should do better in Cincinnati too, where he lost in the first round last year. While I think Federer is the favorite to win the two masters titles and the Open, I'd be surprised if he can defend all those points, especially since anything but a win at the Open will practically put Nadal ahead of him assuming that Nadal does moderately better than last year.

EDIT: Forgot about the Olympics, but I don't think that should make a huge difference. However, I think it will help Federer hold off Rafa since a) it's on hardcourt, and b) Federer only has points from 3 optionals, while Rafa currently has points counting from 5, the lowest of which gives him 75 points. Rafa will have to do very well in Beijing for that tournament to have a noticeable effect (assuming he defends all his points at Stuttgart, which may not be a given as I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull out after the marathon today).

Fed Express
07-06-2008, 10:13 PM
If he gets it, it will probably be back to Federer by the time of the clay season. Up until then Federer has a massive amount of points to gather.

renatoal
07-06-2008, 10:14 PM
Grass become too slow... So gave us a false impression... Let's see on hardcourts! I think Fed will stay as number 1

l_mac
07-06-2008, 10:17 PM
Nadal has a massive lead in the race now. 270 points over Fed, and over 300 over Djokovic.

I still expect him to blow it during the hardcourt season.

Just realised! First time he breaks 6000 points :woohoo: :woohoo:

Chip_s_m
07-06-2008, 10:19 PM
I posted this in one of the other threads:


And yes, I do think Nadal will take over the #1 spot by the end of the US Open. He only has 630 points to defend until then, whereas Federer has 1850 . I'd be surprised if Nadal wins the Open, but he really should make it past the 4th round this time. He should do better in Cincinnati too, where he lost in the first round last year. While I think Federer is the favorite to win the two masters titles and the Open, I'd be surprised if he can defend all those points, especially since anything but a win at the Open will practically put Nadal ahead of him assuming that Nadal does moderately better than last year.

EDIT: Forgot about the Olympics, but I don't think that should make a huge difference. However, I think it will help Federer hold off Rafa since a) it's on hardcourt, and b) Federer only has points from 3 optionals, while Rafa currently has points counting from 5, the lowest of which gives him 75 points. Rafa will have to do very well in Beijing for that tournament to have a noticeable effect (assuming he defends all his points at Stuttgart, which may not be a given as I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull out after the marathon today).

twisturhead
07-06-2008, 10:26 PM
he will take it soon but sooner or later will lose it

Becker's Volleys
07-06-2008, 10:32 PM
He still won't beat Fed on the hardcourts (Fed's better at Flushing than absolutely anywhere). A Tyson or Hewitt stay at the top- should he get there is likely. Even then Djokovic will still be right up there, Fed winning scttered slams here and there plus a new blod of fitter, younger, stronger and better players will be still emerging all over the place.

kafemotor
07-06-2008, 10:32 PM
nadal absolutely the fav... im looking forward to his translating grass-clay game into hardcourt... i assume that nadal and uncle tony has been developing a scheme/strategy that the milestone is wemble. whenever he win it, then he will push HC for points. thats why mentally, phisycally, also technically nadal didnt push too much last year... beside uncle tony mentioned somewhere that nadal game has been developing. so safely i can say that after that massive triumph on grass this year he will work on his HC game too. if it is so, then #1 spot will be his right... :)

KoOlMaNsEaN
07-06-2008, 10:35 PM
I'll guess at the US Open and for 2 years

spencercarlos
07-06-2008, 10:35 PM
Right now Nadal owns 2 grand slams definetly he is number one ATM and he will claim it in the early part of the hard court season.

twisturhead
07-06-2008, 10:36 PM
its not their job
ITS UP TO NIKE

Black Adam
07-06-2008, 10:37 PM
Logic says with 2 slams this year he should be number 1 unless Djokovic takes USO in which case it will come down to other tourneys.

I thinkhe will hold the position sometime during the HardCourt season and will keeps if for a few weeks. At this point it seems he will avoid the curse of being the best player ever not to reach world number 1.

twisturhead
07-06-2008, 10:43 PM
the year end championships better be more exciting than the previous two years

Lillith
07-06-2008, 10:43 PM
First of all, I'm a fan of Roger and I cannot be sad for him losing the no. 1 spot after such a match. And now...my answer to the title question:

I estimate it will be before US Open and he will stay there until next year after Wimbledon, where he will not defend the points and will give the spot to Federer or to Djokovic.

Your oppinions, please ...


I think it's too early to tell, if the last 3 years are any guide. I like Nadal, and he played a great match to win today. But we can't ignore the fact that he has yet to show up the 2nd half of the season, except for a couple of tournaments in one great season. Granted, he doesn't have that much to defend the rest of the season, but if his knees have truly been bothering him on grass, then he's screwed for July through November.

And this comes from someone who wants him to do better, because I don't want Djokovic as the #2. At least not until he matures and gets away from his family.

Chrisilson
07-06-2008, 10:44 PM
He'll have to have alot of success in the hard-court season to replace Federer officially and unofficially in my mind. Nadal's hard-court performances have been patchy in the last few years and to take the number 1 spot he has to have a high level of consistency for the rest of the season. Regardless of the fact that Nadal has beaten Federer in the last 2 grand-slam finals, it is Federer who has made at least the semi-finals of every Grand-slam for 4 years running

What constitutes a number 1 for me is a player of high level consistency throughout the year.

kafemotor
07-06-2008, 10:46 PM
remember that at his early stage, nadal had a good run at HC... so now this is his time

Lillith
07-06-2008, 11:02 PM
Is it because they fear some fans will think it's disgraceful that the holder of two slams is still #2? McEnroe never mentioned it once that I can remember and there is nothing at all on the website.

Am I mistaken in thinking that the new points on Monday will be

Federer 6600
Nadal 6055

Does anyone think that Nadal will be able to take over the #1 ranking during the hard court season?


Perhaps because people are afraid of getting burned again? Anyone with more than a 5 minute attention span should be able to recall that this debate has raged in years past, only with Nadal to come up far short in the second half of the season. They are probably taking a wait and see approach for now.

Nadal's play at the Championships proves he can be aggressive, but the question still remains whether he can translate that to hard courts. And whether Toni Nadal will let him try- didn't he say something even this week about him wanting Nadal to play more clay the rest of this year fo rhis knees? Some reports were that Nadal's knees have been hurting even on grass, and IF that is true, I doubt he'll do well the rest of the year. Which is unfortunate, given that Djokovic is behind him. I much prefer Nadal and Federer as 1 and 2, regardless of order.

platinum
07-06-2008, 11:46 PM
After the USO, Rafa will be #1.


Federer and Nole have tons of points to defend in the upcoming months, unlike Rafa.


And as we have seen in 2008, Roger and Nole have not defended any of the titles they won in 2007 THIS year.

Fedex
07-06-2008, 11:54 PM
Nadal is gonna get it. It's time to face the music folks. How long will he maintain the number 1 ranking? Your guess is as good as mine. There's a different kind of pressure in being the number one ranked player in the world. Federer has embraced it and handled it remarkably well over the years. Nadal has to prove he can play with that same kind of pressure week in and week out.

platinum
07-07-2008, 12:16 AM
Is it because they fear some fans will think it's disgraceful that the holder of two slams is still #2? McEnroe never mentioned it once that I can remember and there is nothing at all on the website.

Am I mistaken in thinking that the new points on Monday will be

Federer 6600
Nadal 6055

Does anyone think that Nadal will be able to take over the #1 ranking during the hard court season?

Rafa will be #1 after the USO.

10nisfan
07-07-2008, 12:22 AM
IMHO, I don't think RAFA is more concern getting to Number 1 than Djoker... for RAFA, he's OK at being Number 2 as long as it's FEDEX in the Number 1 Spot...

So maybe if His Knees doesn't feel too good during the HC season, he might not try to do much during the next 6 months... I guess it's Ok for him even if he won't win any title for the rest of 2008, so fas he already have 6 titles for 2008... so he might just take it easy until the clay season in 2009...

Becker's Volleys
07-07-2008, 11:20 AM
Lmao at "what month in 2006 will he do it". :devil:

Enjoy Incubus
07-14-2008, 10:23 AM
Or it will be in other way?
Leave your opinions.

Lopez
07-14-2008, 10:36 AM
I'm not as familiar with the points breakdown here as some posters, but IMO if Nadal even reaches a HC final at say one of the remaining Masters, his form will probably have been / be good enough to gather adequate points for the no.1 spot, regardless of whether he wins it or not.

Still hoping for a Federer pwnage (or a Nole miracle :D)

Enjoy Incubus
07-14-2008, 10:44 AM
I'm not as familiar with the points breakdown here as some posters, but IMO if Nadal even reaches a HC final at say one of the remaining Masters, his form will probably have been / be good enough to gather adequate points for the no.1 spot, regardless of whether he wins it or not.

Still hoping for a Federer pwnage (or a Nole miracle :D)
Good point. It would be very funny to see a Nadal-Federer final with no sense or emotion for the first time. If I were Nadal I would hit dropshots everytime :lol:

Bazooka
07-14-2008, 10:46 AM
While the fight for #2 spot between Nadal and Djokovic has been pretty epic, my guess is that the battle for #1 will probably be the opposite: Nadal will perform about the same than past year in AMS events, and go up to QF or Semi in the USO, Federer will not be as solid as past year and at some point, a loss from him will give Rafa the #1.

Obviously I would prefer it to happen in a Nadal vs Federer final at the USO, or Madrid.

leng jai
07-14-2008, 12:43 PM
Will you guys die if you don't have 10 new threads a day about Nadal and Federer?

JolánGagó
07-14-2008, 01:36 PM
It's pretty obvious Nadal is already the No.1

Dupuis2006
07-20-2008, 05:37 PM
Say if Federer lost early and Nadal won. Is it even possible or no?

Montego
07-20-2008, 05:46 PM
I guess no. According to my estimations - if Fed loses his 1st match here and Nadal wins the whole thing, Rafa will be still 150 points short of taking No.1 spot. Theoretically and practically it can happen in Cincy though...But I can be wrong.

Dupuis2006
07-20-2008, 06:00 PM
Thanks! For the record I want Roger to keep number 1 but I'm pretty scared!

Ackms421
07-21-2008, 05:02 AM
If Nadal wins Cincy and gets to the final in Canada, he's #1 in any situation, right?

Action Jackson
07-21-2008, 05:03 AM
We have a ranking thread here, it's the first one on every page of GM.

Sunset of Age
07-21-2008, 05:06 AM
We have a ranking thread here, it's the first one on every page of GM.

Not THAT hard to find out, no? :help:

FluffyYellowBall
07-21-2008, 10:24 AM
Im not worried about fed losing number 1 spot as I am about him shuttung up critics and doing well, winning a few more AMS's and at least 2 more GS's.
He should stop obsessing about the number one rankin and realize that he could have lost it a lone time ago if Rafa had had a good strin of hard court tourney wins. His number one ranking isnt whats defining his "aura of invincibility"

jcempire
07-21-2008, 11:09 AM
If Nadal wins Cincy and gets to the final in Canada, he's #1 in any situation, right?

The answer is Yes

If he did, which I hope he does, He would be #1 in any situation.

But I guess He couldn't do it which I think He would lose to Djok in Semi final, Hopefully not

nastoff
07-21-2008, 11:16 AM
It's not possible mathematically as the difference in points between Federer and Nadal is now 770 points. Federer is defending 350 ( final ) and Nadal 225 ( semis ). However in Cincinatti Nadal has to defend a mere 5 points so he's bound to get more , while Federer is defending his title. So Nadal can be number 1 after Cincinatti. Whether it'll happen it's another story of course. It's still gonna be tough for Rafa.

Jelena
07-21-2008, 11:46 AM
Still this thread should be merged with the Ranking thread in the sticky ones.

PiggyGotRoasted
07-21-2008, 12:14 PM
It will never happen.
Tennis is dead if nadal wins anything and since he has tennis is dead

nastoff
07-21-2008, 01:03 PM
Tennis has been dead since 2005 then :D
Jee, the Nadal haters are getting so boring now. Yes, it'll probably happen, before the the end of 2008.

TooheysNew
07-21-2008, 01:05 PM
If Nadal wins Cincy and gets to the final in Canada, he's #1 in any situation, right?

sure?
Im not so much into the ranking maths, but
Federer has 6600
Nadal has 5830

Federer has to defend 850
and Nadal 230.
This would be 5750 (F) to 5600 (N) without any results of the upcoming tournaments.
If now Nadal wins Cincy, with Fed as the runner up, and in Canada Fed wins with Nadal as runner up
they would both get 850, so it would be
1 Federer 6600
2 Nadal 6450

Am I right?

Wolbo
07-21-2008, 01:18 PM
Am I right?Yes.

Montego
07-21-2008, 01:38 PM
Excluding Toronto:

Nadal has 830 points to defend for the rest of the year
Federer has 2575 points to defend
Djokovic has 935 points to defend.


So, with a couple of good showings here and there - Nadal should be No.1 by the end of the year, but it all depends on them all :)

PiggyGotRoasted
07-21-2008, 02:01 PM
OMGZZ KAN NADAL GET TO NUMBER 1??
IS HE THE GRESTEST EVER??
WOULD HE BEAT GOD??
shut up with it for 5 minutes

Alya_C
07-21-2008, 03:00 PM
There's a pretty good article about the Nr.1 battle and all the math involved here:

http://http://www.tennis.com/features/general/features.aspx?id=140332 (http://www.tennis.com/features/general/features.aspx?id=140332)

FluffyYellowBall
07-21-2008, 08:20 PM
Tennis has been dead since 2005 then :D
Jee, the Nadal haters are getting so boring now. Yes, it'll probably happen, before the the end of 2008.

Its sad how some members wast there time making posts here about a sport that they think is dead:o

Aurora
07-21-2008, 09:33 PM
There's a pretty good article about the Nr.1 battle and all the math involved here:

http://http://www.tennis.com/features/general/features.aspx?id=140332 (http://www.tennis.com/features/general/features.aspx?id=140332)
thanks for that.
Judio made clear that it's quite unlikely that it'll happen before aug4. Even with Olympics, the margin stays big until USO.
But if the math is correct in this article, in the total period from now until end of USO: it's about Fed getting 700 points more than Nadal to secure his #1.

Wipe the US Open series slate clean, and here's where the three stand relative to each other going into the summer hardcourt season:
http://www.tennis.com/uploadedImages/Editorial/General/2008_07_18_No1rankingpointsreal2_article.jpg
Here, Nadal's substantial lead becomes apparent. The Spaniard is 700 points ahead of Federer, meaning that Federer must earn 700 points more than Nadal between now and the end of the US Open. Given that 700 points is what you get for reaching the US Open final, that's a fairly significant margin -- Federer will have to aim for a run like last year's and hope that, once again, Nadal will repeatedly come up short during this period.
But as long as one of them doesn't fall apart or get sidelined, the No. 1 ranking will almost certainly be in play during the US Open.Not impossible for either player :shrug:
but Fed is dependent on Rafa's performance
and Nadal has it in his own hands/on his own shoulders

freeandlonely
07-21-2008, 10:07 PM
Is there still a practical chance that Nadal never gets No.1?

groundstroke
07-21-2008, 11:59 PM
May-June 2006 - 15
15 idiots. :lol:

Athletics1982
07-26-2008, 01:08 PM
In the beginning of this week, Rafa and Roger has 770 pts gap, since Roger is out in R32 in Tornado, Rafa will have chance to become no.1 just after Cincy, Canada and Cincy all shift 2 weeks early this week, so it means last year's points will be disappeared after 2 weeks later each, so let's analysis in which situation Rafa will become no.1

8/4 (just after Cincy)
In this week, players have both last year and this year's points in Canada and Cincy, so the top players will only carry 3 other results, Rafa has 5 other results, and his 4th and 5th other result is total 100 pts, so it means if Rafa becomes no.1 in 8/4, he needs to play 870 points better than Federer in Canada and Cincy.

8/11
In this week, players have both last year and this year's points in Cincy, and minus last year's Canada points, Federer has 350 pts, Rafa has 225 pts, and Rafa's 4th best other result will add back, Rafa's 4th best other result is 75 point, so it means if Rafa becomes no.1 in 8/11, he needs to play 670 points better than Federer in Canada and Cincy.

8/18
In this week, last year's Cincy points will disappeared, Federer's Cincy point is 500, Rafa is 5, and Rafa's 5th best is 25, but if Rafa plays good in Olympics, it will count to Rafa's other result, so Rafa needs to play 150 points better than Federer in Canada and Cincy and Olympics than he will become no.1 in this week.

9/8 (after US Open)
Federer needs to defend 1000 pts in US Open, Rafa needs to defend 150 pts in US Open, so it means if Rafa doesn't play worse than Federer in 700 pts in Canada, Cincy, Olympics and US Open, he will become No.1.

jcempire
07-26-2008, 01:37 PM
You done good math

It's coming, I mean the New No 1 is coming, either after Cinly or USOPEN

leng jai
07-26-2008, 01:46 PM
Nadal forum :zzz:

JolánGagó
07-26-2008, 01:49 PM
Utterly superfluous question, Nadal is already the No.1

HeiwaDream
07-26-2008, 02:08 PM
I thought that the points of Montreal last year were removed after Toronto for the players who play this tournament?

Smash.
07-26-2008, 02:25 PM
I voted for the third option, but I think Roger will retire soon anyway :shrug:

Sean.
07-26-2008, 02:32 PM
Too hard to say, depends on the draws. I think he will become #1 unless he completely crashes out at USO

Sebby
07-26-2008, 02:37 PM
After the Olympics.